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Smoke rises from a burning building in North Gaza, as seen from the Israel-Gaza border, March 23, 2025.

REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Israel ramps up military offensives as Bibi battles the courts

Israel stepped up its attacks against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon this weekend. The Israeli military ordered the evacuation of Rafah and confirmed the killing of a Hamas leader on Sunday, while the Israeli cabinet approved a proposal to create a directorate to advance the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from Gaza. In Lebanon, Israel carried out airstrikes in retaliation for rockets fired into Israel. The strikes killed seven people, including a child, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, and prompted fears of a “new war” in the region.

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Syrian troops sit atop a tank as they head toward the Syrian-Lebanese border following clashes with Lebanese soldiers and armed groups, in Qusayr, Syria, March 17, 2025.

REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Hezbollah takes on Syria’s new army

Fighting erupted across the border that separates Syria and Lebanon over the weekend. The new government in Syria claims the militant group Hezbollah triggered this violence by crossing into Syrian territory on Saturday, kidnapping three Syrian soldiers, and then executing them inside Lebanon. Hezbollah denies the allegation, and Lebanon’s state media blames the killing on local clans and militias. The two sides agreed to halt the fighting late Monday night.

The Syrian government and Hezbollah have historically acted as allies, but two important changes have occurred. First, Israel has pounded Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon in recent months, badly weakening the group and killing most of its leadership. Second, the current Syrian regime is composed of fighters who defeated the government of Bashar Assad, which had been Hezbollah’s reliable regional partner. Assad now lives in Moscow under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protection.

Hezbollah has good reason for frustration. In the past, when its fighters needed more weapons and materiel, Iran provided them by sending reinforcements across Syrian territory. The new Syrian government has severed that channel. The Lebanese and Syrian armies say they have increased cross-border communication to restore calm, though Hezbollah representatives remain defiant.

An Israeli soldier stands next to a gate on a road near the Israel-Lebanon border, in Israel, on March 12, 2025.

REUTERS/Avi Ohayon

Israel and Lebanon are set for border talks

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to start talks “as soon as possible” on their disputed land border nearly four months after a ceasefire paused the most recent war between the two countries.

The Netanyahu and Trump administrations announced on Tuesday that Israel, Lebanon, France, and the US would establish working groups to negotiate the Israel-Lebanon border, the presence of Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, and the release of Lebanese detainees held in Israel.

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- YouTube

Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?

We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.

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- YouTube

A look back at the Top Risks of 2024

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: As 2024 comes to a close, we always look back on our Top Risks. How we did at the beginning of the year. I back in January, referred to this as the "Voldemort of years," at least geopolitically. The year that must not be named because of three major conflicts that we expected were going to only get worse over the course of the year. The Russia-Ukraine war, the war in the Middle East, and the war between the United States and itself. Those absolutely played out.

First, the risk on Russia-Ukraine, where we said that Ukraine would effectively be partitioned. Not a popular thing to say back in January, and not something that we were hoping for. Just something that we believed was going to happen, even irrespective of how the US elections turned out. The fact that Ukrainians were going to be much more overstretched in the ability to fight. The fact that the Russians would be able to maintain the war machine, and the fact that the Europeans and the Americans were increasingly tiring of a war with lots of attention in other places.

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- YouTube

Israeli strikes put ancient Roman ruins of Baalbek at risk

Israeli airstrikes targeting Baalbek, Lebanon, threaten some of the best-preserved ancient Roman ruins anywhere in the world. The temples of Bacchus and Jupiter, which are designated UNESCO World Heritage sites, have stood in Baalbek for over two millennia. The city is located in a region of eastern Lebanon dominated by Hezbollah, so it's become a critical target amid Israel’s offensive.

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Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.

Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto

Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action

In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.

Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.

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Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.

Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto

Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo

Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.

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