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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for military combat officers at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
US says Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire ‘within our grasp’
The Israeli military has stepped up strikes in Beirut in recent days, as Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at northern Israel. Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has displaced roughly 1.2 million people, inflaming sectarian tensions and fueling fears of an internal conflict.
Despite the ongoing fighting, a top US envoy on Tuesday said that a truce between Israel and Hezbollah is “within our grasp.” The optimistic assessment from the envoy, Amos Hochstein, came as he visited Beirut and a day after Lebanon and Hezbollah reportedly agreed to a US proposal for a cease-fire.
The proposal would see Israel and Hezbollah withdraw forces from a UN buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and the area would be policed by UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops.
Though Israel has not shown any signs of slowing down operations in Lebanon, a recent report indicated the Jewish state was interested in moving forward with a cease-fire in the not-too-distant future to deliver an early foreign policy “gift” for President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump, who has a close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has promised to bring peace to the Middle East.
But Netanyahu says that even if there is a cease-fire in Lebanon, Israel will still need to operate against Hezbollah to prevent it from regaining strength — a position that could prove to be a sticking point as the US works to get a deal across the finish line.
We’ll be watching to see if US efforts to secure a truce pay off in the days ahead, and what it will mean for Trump as he prepares for a second term in the White House.
Lebanon's Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem speaks during an interview with Reuters in Beirut's suburbs, Lebanon November 22, 2019.
Will Hezbollah’s new leader give peace a chance?
Hezbollah on Tuesday named cleric Naim Kassem, 71, as its new leader. Kassem was a longtime deputy of Hezbollah’s previous leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike last month.
Kassem inherits Nasrallah’s job at a precarious moment for Hezbollah, which has been fighting with Israel since Hamas attacked the Jewish state last October. The conflict escalated when Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon earlier this month.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant responded to Kassem’s appointment by posting his picture to X with the caption, “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”
Mixed signals. Kassem has often been the public face of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, a role that’s increased since Nasrallah’s death.
On Oct. 8, Kassem gave a speech in which he expressed support for a cease-fire in Lebanon, without explicitly linking a truce to an end of the Gaza war — a condition upon which Hezbollah previously insisted. But in another speech on Oct. 15, Kassem signaled Hezbollah wouldn’t agree to a deal that didn’t include an end to Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
In the days ahead, we’ll be watching to see if Kassem takes a clearer position on a cease-fire now that he’s officially the new voice of Hezbollah.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.
Blinken urges Netanyahu to ‘capitalize’ on Hamas leader’s death
The FBI on Tuesday announced it’s investigating a leak of US intelligence documents that offer details on Israel’s potential plans for retaliation against Iran over its missile attack earlier this month. The highly classified documents were shared on an Iran-linked Telegram account.
The leak puts the US in an awkward position as the intelligence pertains to spying on an ally. It’s not uncommon for governments to gather intel on allies, but such activities can still be embarrassing when revealed.
As the Biden administration scrambles to discover how the documents were leaked, it’s also pushing for a cease-fire in the Middle East amid Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is reportedly considering an Egyptian plan for a two-week cease-fire with Hamas, which would see half a dozen hostages exchanged in the process. It’s possible a smaller agreement like this could gain momentum after months of failed international efforts to secure a lasting peace.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and urged him to capitalize on the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
We’ll be watching to see if the US reveals more about the source of the leak and whether Israel shows any signs of accepting a cease-fire proposal.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken boards a plane, en route to the Middle East, as he departs Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., October 21, 2024.
US pushes for Middle East cease-fire ahead of Election Day
With exactly two weeks before Election Day in the US, the Biden administration is pushing for cease-fires in Israel’s wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut on Monday as part of this effort. Hochstein said that both sides “simply committing” to UN resolution 1701, a peace agreement that followed the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, “is not enough” and called for a formula “that brings an end to this conflict once and for all.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is en route to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday as part of a renewed push for a Gaza cease-fire.
While achieving a cease-fire on either front could potentially boost Kamala Harris’s campaign, the likelihood of this happening before Nov. 5 appears slim. The US and other international negotiators have pushed for a cease-fire for months, without luck.
Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend, and the region is still bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can make any progress, but recent history suggests it will be an uphill battle.
Israeli soldiers stand guard as they deny access to Palestinian farmers to harvest olives, in Burqa near Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank October 20, 2024.
US probes intel leak, drones hit Bibi’s house
Washingtonis investigating a leak of highly classified intelligence about Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran. Two reports, marked “top secret” and intended only for the US and its Five Eyes allies (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand), began circulating last week on Telegram, a messaging app. They appear to have beenprepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and detail Israeli air force exercises and movements of munitions in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.
House Speaker Mike Johnson described the leak as“very concerning” with the potential to damage relations between the US and Israel. They were posted to Telegram around the same time Washington gave Israel 30 days to increase aid to Gaza or risk cuts to its military aid.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern border while one of its dronesstruck the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning. Netanyahu, who was not home at the time, declared that nothing could deter Israel from winning the war and that “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.” Iran denied responsibility for the attack, trying to distance itself from Hezbollah.
We’re watching how it affects US-Israeli relations ahead of the US election, and whether Washington will follow through on its threats over Gaza.UN Italian peacekeeping soldiers secure an area outside their base in the southern Lebanese border village of Alma al-Shaab.
Israel’s attacks on UN peacekeepers draw international condemnation
Israel and the UN’s historically thorny relationship has become even more contentious amid the escalating fight between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant and political group in Lebanon.
The UN says that Israeli forces have fired on their peacekeepers in southern Lebanon several times in recent days and that at least five peacekeepers have been injured in the process.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged UNIFIL, the UN’s peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, to leave the area and get out of “harm’s way.” Netanyahu denies that Israel has deliberately targeted peacekeepers. UNIFIL, which is mandated to be in southern Lebanon by the UN Security Council, refuses to leave. Meanwhile, the UN on Sunday said that the Israeli military forcibly entered one of its positions in southern Lebanon, which Israel denies.
Tough gig. UNIFIL — the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — was first established in 1978 to oversee Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon following an invasion that same year. It’s made up of 10,000 personnel from 50 countries and patrols an area known as the Blue Line — a UN-designated line separating Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
UNIFIL is charged with maintaining peace and security along the border between Israel and Lebanon, which is no easy task given the volatile history of the region. A 2006 UN resolution, tied to an Israel-Hezbollah war that year, expanded UNIFIL’s mission and called on it to “ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind.”
The Israeli government and other critics of UNIFIL say it’s ineffective and hasn’t done a good enough job reporting on Hezbollah’s activities and build-up in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has repeatedly fired on Israel from the area since last October amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, in a tit-for-tat that ultimately spiraled into the recent Israeli invasion of Lebanon atop escalating airstrikes across the country.
Israel’s criticism of UNIFIL does not appear to be landing with much of the international community, which is condemning the Jewish state for firing on peacekeepers.
UN chief António Guterres — who Israel recently declared persona non grata — has warned that attacks on peacekeepers could constitute war crimes, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to stop firing on peacekeepers.
The UK, France, Germany, and Italy on Monday condemned “all threats to UNIFIL’s security,” and called for IDF attacks on peacekeepers to stop “immediately.” Similarly, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said attacking UN troops is “completely unacceptable.”
We’ll be watching to see if Israel listens and adjusts course in Lebanon.
Army Cpl. Rogelio Argueta, Patriot Launching Station Enhanced Operator-Maintainer, assigned with Task Force Talon, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command gives commands, during a practice missile reload and unload drills on a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system trainer at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.
US deploys anti-missile system to Israel, UN accuses Israel of damaging base
The Biden administration is sending an anti-ballistic missile system to Israel to bolster the Jewish state’s defenses against potential Iranian attacks and underscore Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s defense, the Pentagon said Sunday. A deployment of 100 US troops will man the Thaad system.
The US has deployed Thaad systems to Israel twice before, once in 2019 and after the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023 — but the war has expanded, and the risks of escalation with US troops in the theater are higher.
Saber-rattling: The deployment follows discussions between American and Israeli officials over Israel’s plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile strike on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that Israel’s strike would be “deadly, precise, and surprising,” but Washington has advised against the targeting of Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites. On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiwarned on X that while Iran wants peace, “we have no red lines in defending our people and interests.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s fights with Hezbollah and Hamas continue. On Sunday, a Hezbollah drone strike in the Israeli city of Binyamina near Haifa killed four soldiers and injured at least 60 people, according to Israeli rescue services. Israel also continued to strike Hamas in northern Gaza, killing at least 20 on Sunday. The UN says no food aid has been delivered since the beginning of October.
And then in Lebanon … On Sunday morning IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that the United Nations Interim Force withdraw from southern Lebanon, claiming its forces were being used as “hostages” by Hezbollah.
According to the UN, two Israeli tanks forcibly entered a UNIFIL peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday. The tanks left but reportedly fired shells nearby that sickened some of the base personnel. Israeldisputes this and maintains that Hezbollah terrorists fired anti-tank missiles at its troops close to a UNIFIL post and that an Israeli tank evacuating two dozen casualties came under fire and backed into the UNIFIL post.
Nevertheless, Israel was denounced by the UN as wellas by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who phoned Netanyahu on Sunday about the “unacceptable” incident. Italy, usually a staunch supporter of Israel, is the largest contributor to UNIFIL with 1,000 troops.
We’re watching how other UNIFIL countries respond and what the US deployment means for further escalation in the region.
How October 7th changed Israel and the Middle East
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. It is October 7th, and that means one year since Hamas perpetrated the worst terrorist attacks since 9/11. Almost 1,200 Israelis dead, mostly civilians, and still a hundred plus held hostage from that day a year ago. Not much progress on that latter front or on a ceasefire. Not much progress in the region since then. What it did do, of course, on October 7th, is it outraged and unified what had been a very divided Israeli population, divided with massive internal demonstrations on domestic political issues. And suddenly the only issue that mattered was responding to, redressing those attacks, whether you're on the left or the right in Israel and being able to defend the Israeli homeland and get the hostages back.
On the former, they've certainly been effective, hitting back as hard as possible. We've seen that Hamas today is a shell of what it was on October 7th a year ago. The leadership mostly dead. The weapons caches mostly destroyed. The tunnels mostly sealed. Hezbollah, the most powerful non-state military actor in the world, has been damaged critically, and they started rocket attacks against Israel a day after the October 7th terrorist attacks. Israel has now opened up a second front, really the primary front now in the war, and after a couple of weeks of that war, Hezbollah's leadership is dead. Their communication capacity was critically destroyed. The war is ongoing but is certainly not going well for Hezbollah. On the one hand, you've seen a major escalation from the rockets and the bombing happening in Gaza to a ground war across the entirety of that territory now to Lebanon and with significant shots fired missiles and the rest military operations with Iran's other proxies, the Houthis and Yemen, Shia militants in Syria and Iraq, and of course involving Iran itself.
On the other hand, the capacity of these proxy organizations to escalate in return is now far, far less capable, far less serious. Hamas cannot threaten Israel the way they could on October 7th. Hezbollah certainly far, far diminished in their ability to escalate even if they want to. Two big questions are remaining. First, Iran. They are a country that still has all sorts of capabilities to escalate if they wish, possibly not effectively against Israel itself, but against the West, against the world. If they wanted to, they could completely disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and as a consequence, ensure that much of the oil that comes out of the Middle East, not just Iran's one and a half million barrels a day of export but from the Gulf states is stuck in place. And that would mean oil prices towards $150, even in a depressed demand environment as we see now, and a global recession.
So Iran's capacity, if they want to escalate, is far, far greater than that of Hezbollah or Hamas or anyone else in the region. And they have shown themselves to be quite risk-averse in response to Israeli strikes against Iranian leaders across the region, military leaders, and also against Hamas leadership in Tehran. And that was true back in April, and that was true back a week ago. But still, we are awaiting what is almost certainly going to be an Israeli response, a military response, against Iran for the 180 ballistic missiles that they launched against Israel with no fatalities in Israel. One in the West Bank of a Palestinian, but nonetheless, certainly could have caused a lot of people to be killed. And we will see if that the Israeli response leads to further Iranian escalation. I am at this point hopeful, and I would even say optimistic, that it does not, but optimism feels like exactly the wrong word to describe any of this in the region.
Then the second big question remaining is about the devastation on the ground. In Gaza, for the last year, a million and a half Palestinians are now living on the back of humanitarian aid of on average 125-ish trucks coming in a day. That's compared to 800 to 1000 on average before October 7th. As well as all of those tunnels which have now been sealed, they brought a lot of arms and illicit goods in. They also brought things like food, luxury food stuffs, and other things that you could buy on the gray market in Gaza. Those are closed, and there's no Gaza economy. There's no local Gaza agriculture right now. So the 1.5 million Palestinians are living in an absolutely unimaginable condition on single-digit percentage calories, many of them, in terms of consumption from what they would have been living on before October 7th.
Then you have the West Bank, which has been indirectly involved in the fighting. There's been a lot of skirmishing, a lot of shooting, a lot of people getting killed. And then also Israeli settlers and the IDF taking and securing more land from the Palestinians there. Then of course, in Lebanon in the last two weeks, you have over a million Lebanese who have been displaced from that fighting. Far more will be displaced in all likelihood in the coming weeks. All of this from a humanitarian perspective unacceptable by any yardstick. The United States seen by most of the world as complicit in watching it and not providing the either restraint on Israel or the humanitarian support effectively to help ensure that the suffering is reduced. And of course, this is going to cause hatred and radicalization for generations. And antisemitism was already way too high and on an upswing before October 7th, certainly only greater in this environment a year later.
And of course, with all of this, we don't know what's going to happen with upcoming elections. Kamala Harris came out on "60 Minutes" and described the United States as the best friend of the Israeli people around the world, refused to say whether or not the US was an ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu himself. A very strained relationship between the United States and the Israeli Prime Minister today. While former President Trump came out publicly in the last few days and said that the Israeli government, the Israeli military, should actively take out Iran's nuclear capabilities. So frankly, I would say between Harris and Trump, their policies, their orientation specifically on the Middle East and the Israeli wars in Gaza, in Lebanon, and the fighting we're seeing with Iran, probably the biggest difference on foreign policy between those two candidates would be on this issue. And we will find out in a month plus who is going to lead the United States, but utterly critical as we think about the future of this conflict in the region.
So that is where we are a year after the October 7th terrorist attacks, and now very deep in expanding war that is affecting much of the region. And I will continue to talk about it and follow it for you. So I hope everyone's going well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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