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Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.
A look back at the Top Risks of 2024
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: As 2024 comes to a close, we always look back on our Top Risks. How we did at the beginning of the year. I back in January, referred to this as the "Voldemort of years," at least geopolitically. The year that must not be named because of three major conflicts that we expected were going to only get worse over the course of the year. The Russia-Ukraine war, the war in the Middle East, and the war between the United States and itself. Those absolutely played out.
First, the risk on Russia-Ukraine, where we said that Ukraine would effectively be partitioned. Not a popular thing to say back in January, and not something that we were hoping for. Just something that we believed was going to happen, even irrespective of how the US elections turned out. The fact that Ukrainians were going to be much more overstretched in the ability to fight. The fact that the Russians would be able to maintain the war machine, and the fact that the Europeans and the Americans were increasingly tiring of a war with lots of attention in other places.
All of that meant that Ukrainians would increasingly be desperate. And we really saw that in particular with this spectacular Ukrainian attack into Kursk taking Russian territory, but needing 40,000 of their troops to accomplish it away from their front lines. As the year comes to a close, Ukraine is losing territory faster than at any point since the beginning of the war. And they increasingly recognize not only that they need to start negotiations, but they're going to have to end up trading some land for peace and for security guarantees from the West. So indeed Ukraine today, de facto partitioned.
Number two, the war in the Middle East, which we believed was going to expand significantly. At the beginning of the year, we were talking about Gaza. Now of course, we're talking about the 'Axis of Resistance,' a year when in Yemen the Houthis were popping off rockets and missiles against civilian tanker traffic going through the Red Sea and also against the United States and other military assets in the region, and the Americans and others hitting them back. We saw the war open to include Hezbollah and Lebanon. We saw the war also threaten to bring Israel and Iran together directly as they exchanged fire against each other and as the Israelis were able to decimate Iran's proxies.
Some good news on this front. First of all, the fact that ultimately the United States, Israel, and most importantly, Iran, showed restraint and risk aversion in what would've been a much more devastating fight. And what would've led oil prices to go well over a hundred if that war broken out. That did not occur. And also the fact that the Israelis have been able to show military dominance, which meant that there is no more effective 'Axis of Resistance' at the end of this year. In fact, the big surprise that not only did the war expand, but Assad is gone. Not because of Obama who said that over 10 years ago, but rather because they were unable to respond to HTS supported by Turkey, a rebellion against Assad, and the Russians, and the Iranians. Assad's support base were inadequate to keep him in power. He now sits in Moscow.
And now finally, the US versus itself. A year of only more significant division and polarization inside my own country, the United States. And we've seen that play out. First of all with a Biden that was running for the presidency and had no capacity to serve for another four years, refused to step down, was finally essentially forced out, forced to step down by everyone around him, including former President Obama, former speaker Pelosi, and all of the rest. On the Trump side, two, not one, attempted assassinations, one by this much. And if that had occurred, we'd be in a hell of a lot more difficult position now as a country. The election did go off without a hitch, and was accepted as free and fair, thankfully. And now the United States looks forward to a new president. But the divisions inside the US, the weakening of America's political institutions only growing over the course of 2024.
So those were our top three risks. You can look at all 10, and see how we did go back and check it out on the link that we have here. And also take a look in early January. Watch out for our Top Risks of 2025. It will be something you do not want to miss.
- Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024 ›
- Why 2024 is the Voldemort of years ›
- 2024's top global risks: The trifecta of wars threatening global peace ›
- A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024 ›
- Ian Bremmer explains the 10 Top Risks of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Unpacking the biggest global threats of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts - GZERO Media ›
- Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order - GZERO Media ›
Israeli strikes put ancient Roman ruins of Baalbek at risk
Israeli airstrikes targeting Baalbek, Lebanon, threaten some of the best-preserved ancient Roman ruins anywhere in the world. The temples of Bacchus and Jupiter, which are designated UNESCO World Heritage sites, have stood in Baalbek for over two millennia. The city is located in a region of eastern Lebanon dominated by Hezbollah, so it's become a critical target amid Israel’s offensive.
In November, an airstrike hit a parking lot just meters from the temples, destroying other buildings on the site and covering the ruins in dust and debris. Archaeological experts worry that if the tentative ceasefire in Lebanon doesn’t hold, an important piece of the world’s cultural heritage is at risk of disappearing completely. Fin DePencier was on the ground in Baalbek, Lebanon for GZERO Reports to survey the damage and hear from locals, who see the site as a source of pride in a country torn apart by sectarian division.
“The owner of these sites is not Lebanon,” says local tour guide Fahmi Sharif, “but all humanity”
Watch full episode: Syria after Assad.
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Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
Skykline of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 21, 2022 .
Will rabbi’s murder in the UAE amplify Iran-Israel tensions?
Israeli authorities condemned the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan 28-year-old whose body was discovered Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, as an“antisemitic terrorist attack.” They are investigating potential Iranian involvement, including Uzbek nationals with suspected links to Iran. In response, the Iranian embassy in the UAE said it “categorically rejects the allegations of Iran’s involvement in the murder of this individual.”
The UAE has arrested three suspects but has provided no further details. Should a link to Iran be established, it would likely renew calls for retaliation by Israel, and possibly set off a new cycle of escalation.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in both Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of a suburb of Gaza City on Sunday after Hamas militants fired rockets at Israel,prompting a new wave of displacements in the enclave. Hamasclaimed late Sunday that a female Israeli hostage had been killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza, but Israel said it was unable to verify the information.
In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike targeted an army center, resulting in the death of one soldier and injuries to 18 others. Hezbollah retaliated on Sunday by launching 340 drones and rockets into Israel andclaimed to have also destroyed a total of 11 Israeli tanks in a series of ground battles. Talks over a potential cease-fire with Hezbollah have thus far been fruitless, but the Israeli ambassador to the US said a deal could be reached “within days” on Monday.