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Canada's Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 2, 2024.
Supply management showdown: Canadian politics complicates 2026 trade talks
The precarious nature of domestic politics in the Canadian House of Commons looks set to have implications for the mandated renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement in 2026.
The governing Liberals need the support of the left-wing NDP or separatist Bloc Québecois to survive the barrage of no-confidence votes being brought forward by members of the opposition Conservative Party, who are ahead in the polls and want to send the country to an election.
The price the Bloc has put on its support are two pieces of legislation sponsored by its members – one, to increase old-age security payments for seniors aged 64-75, and two, a bill that would forbid Canada’s trade negotiators from making concessions on the country’s protected dairy, chicken, and egg sectors, known as supply management.
The latter was passed recently by all parties in the House of Commons, despite concerns about grocery prices. But it is currently being held up in the Senate, the unelected upper chamber. There are a number of senators who used to be senior diplomats and who point out that ring-fencing supply management, predominantly based in the eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec, will inflame trading partners and tie the hands of trade negotiators, who will be forced to give ground in other agricultural sectors like beef, pork, and canola, which are all based in the West of Canada.
Veteran trade negotiators say making supply management untouchable would be a big mistake as we approach the renegotiation in two years, particularly if Donald Trump becomes president.
Supply management was a major irritant to the Americans in the 2017/18 negotiations, and Canada was forced to grant the US more access to its dairy market, in return for keeping the production and pricing control system in place. There are legitimate fears that this time the US will seek to kill supply management.
The unelected Canadian Senate can only obstruct the democratic will of the House of Commons for so long, and it seems inevitable the Bloc bill will pass into law.
Canada had expected the 2026 renegotiation to be a formality. But it had best not count its chickens.
Canada's Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre speaks in the House of Commons.
Poilievre is polling well despite crying "terror"
The political exchange was sparked when a 56-year-old New York man set out to attend a Kiss concert, but instead ended up driving his Bentley at high speed into a barrier at the border crossing, going airborne and exploding on impact, killing him and his wife.
Fox News was quick to report that it was believed to be a terrorist attack, and Republicans were quick to link it to Biden’s border policies. On Twitter, Ted Cruz called it a terrorist attack, as did GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has called for a wall along the northern border.
In Canada’s House of Commons, before the facts were established, Poilievre asked about reports that the incident was linked to terrorism. After it became clear it had nothing to do with terrorists, the Liberals accused him of jumping to conclusions. When he was asked about it, Poilievre berated the reporter who posed the question, which commentators, including this writer, thought went too far. He also came under harsh criticism for voting against a Canada-Ukraine free trade deal and delivering a misleading explanation for the vote.
Both incidents gave Liberals the opportunity to attack him as dishonest, mean, and a Trumpy northerner, perhaps hoping for make a comeback in the polls. So far, that has not happened. The most recent poll from Nanos shows the Liberals so far behind that they are tied with the NDP, which could put pressure on the smaller party to force an early election. Seat projections show that the NDP would pick up seats if there was an election today, but that’s no guarantee since their voters might not like to see the NDP bring down Trudeau, opening a path to a Poilievre government.Liberal Ontario MP Anthony Rota
A tale of two speakers, revisited
Now, Canada’s House of Commons has a new speaker, while the US House of Representatives is struggling to elect one for themselves. Last week, Liberal member of Parliament Greg Fergus was elected speaker by his colleagues in a secret preferential ballot, making him the first Black speaker in the country’s history. His election proceeded far more quickly and smoothly than its American counterpart.
On Wednesday, however, Republicans made some progress toward filling the speaker’s chair. GOP representatives chose Louisiana’s Steve Scalise – who voted to overturn the 2020 election – as their pick over judiciary chair Jim Jordan. But that’s just step one. Now, Scalise must find his way to 217 votes – a path that will take him through ruins with potentially hostile members of his own party, Democrats, or both. Scalise can only afford to lose four Republicans without having to rely on the other side of the aisle. So far, at least a dozen Republicans are opposed to Scalise.
We’re watching to see if Scalise and the Republicans can fill the speaker’s chair while facing down lingering and developing crises, including the war in Ukraine – and the battle in Congress to fund it – and the Israel-Hamas war. We’re also watching to see if Fergus can bring some order and the decorum to the House of Commons. Good luck with that.