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Leaked Signal chat shows Trump team's mindset
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the full transcript of these Signal chat that's going on about the bombing of the Houthis. A few things here. First of all, are we surprised that a journalist is actually publishing what is clearly classified data? And there's no question, it's classified data. I mean, you're talking about the targets, the exact timing in advance of US military strikes, incredibly sensitive information, against people that are described as terrorists in the chat. And clearly, if that information had gotten out in advance when Jeffrey Goldberg had received it in real time, it would have put the operation at risk. It would have prevented it from going on. It would have been denounced as leaking classified information, and he would be facing some legal charges from the administration. So I don't think it's credible to say that this is not classified.
But since Trump and members of administration have now said that it isn't classified, there was nothing classified in it, I guess that provides legal cover since it is ultimately in the charge of the president to be able to determine, as president, whether or not something is classified. That there's nothing illegal in Goldberg and the Atlantic Magazine now taking all of that information and putting it out to the public. So is that embarrassing for the US with its allies in terms of how they're handling such a chat? The answer is of course, yes. And I expect that we're going to see a significant amount of continued focus on this topic. A lot of people are going to be asking questions about how it was that this conversation could have been had on Signal and also how it was that Goldberg could have been brought on board. But say that as it may. I mean if you are the Trump administration here, it is age-old tactic, full denial responsibility is actually of your political adversaries so blame Goldberg. Imply that maybe he tried to get on the call through nefarious ways.
It's all his fault. It's overstated. He's a fake news, no news journalist. No one should pay attention to him. He's a bad guy. I mean all of that stuff. And I was particularly bemused by Elon Musk sharing a post from the Babylon Bee saying that, "If you wanted to ensure that nobody ever saw information you'd put it on page 2 of the Atlantic." And of course, that is true for Elon, and it's true for Trump supporters. And this is why the strategy works, is because the Atlantic and the people that read the Atlantic and support the Atlantic are all considered disinformation by those that are loyal to Trump. And vice versa. Fox, and Newsmax and all of the right-wing podcasts. Those are considered fake news by people that don't support, that dislike Trump. And that allows a strategy of full denial, not engaging with the facts and blaming those that are coming after you to be successful. Now, I still think that there are interesting pieces of information here.
Perhaps the most important is that the actual policy conversation, not the details of the war fighting itself, but rather whether or not it was a good idea to be attacking the Houthis, in a big way that was potentially going to increase energy prices. And that was much less of a fight of the Americans than it would be of those in the region that are engaged in the direct proxy war with Iran or the Europeans who have a lot more directly at stake, in terms of their trade in transit. And that was a very reasonable question, and it was strongly, in other words, Vice President Vance opposed these strikes and he's the most important person. He's the most senior ranking person in this chat. Trump isn't on the chat. And he's not saying the president is wrong. He's saying, "I don't believe the president is fully informed and this clearly is not in his interest, in his policy interest."
Now, the reason this is important is because in Trump's first term, I think you would have had a very similar conversation from people like Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo and others that would have been on this chat, but then they would have brought it to the president. And many, many instances in the first term of policy disagreements that then came up and said, "Mr. President. Respectfully, we think we've got additional information and we can better carry out your will by doing X, Y, and Z." And there were checks. There were internal checks on executive authority. What we see this time around is we see JD Vance, who's obviously a very smart guy saying, "I think this is a really bad idea. We shouldn't be doing it, but I'm prepared not to raise it to the president unless I have everybody around me supporting me because I can't do this by myself. I'm just going to get my head chopped off." And there's a little bit of back and forth.
And Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff for policy in the White House and a full-on Trump loyalist, says, "Nope, the president wants this. I'm ending the conversation." And that's the end of the conversation, and it never gets to Trump. And then they go ahead and they bomb. So whatever you think about whether this was a good or a bad decision, the challenge here is that we have a big cabinet, some of whom are very capable, some of whom are absolutely not capable. But first and foremost is not getting the best information to the president because he's extremely confident. He believes that his policies are always the right ones, and he is absolutely punishing anything that feels like disloyalty, inside or outside of his team. That's why Pompeo, for example, John Bolton, have had their security details stripped away. Even though the Iranian government has been trying to assassinate them, right? Why? Because they were disloyal to Trump. That's not why they're trying to assassinate him. That's why Trump took away their security detail and that is a very strong message to everybody that is on this chat.
And I do worry, I worry that the three most powerful men in power today around the world, all in their 70s, Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping, are also men that are incredibly confident about the rightness of their views. That loyalty is the key to the most important currency of power that exists inside those systems. And increasingly, they're not getting good information from their own advisers. That's a dangerous place for the world to be. It's a dangerous place for the world to be heading, and that's frankly the most important thing that I took out of this chat. So that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon, thanks.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine’s tumultuous politics, Netanyahu’s endgame, escalation in Yemen
Ukraine’s political woes. While Russia maintains tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border, domestic politics in Kyiv are becoming increasingly contentious. This week, former President Petro Poroshenko — who was elected in 2014 after the Maidan Revolution ousted a longtime Putin ally and then defeated for re-election in 2019 — has now returned to Ukraine after a month abroad to face a host of criminal charges. Those charges include treason, an alleged crime related to his decision to sign government contracts to buy coal from mines held by Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Poronshenko, a businessman worth $1.6 billion, says the deal was necessary to keep Ukraine from economic collapse and that the charges are an attempt by current President Volodomyr Zelensky to distract from unfavorable perceptions of the country’s (currently lousy) economic outlook. He also calls it a manufactured crisis and a “gift” to the Kremlin, because it distracts from Russia’s ongoing aggression. Also, on Friday US Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to continue talks on resolving the Ukraine standoff.
A plea deal for Netanyahu? Amid an ongoing criminal trial, Israel’s former PM Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly negotiating a plea deal with the prosecution that could help him avoid jail time on a series of corruption and breach of trust charges. As part of the deal, the former PM would admit to some fraud charges, while others would be dismissed. Instead of prison, he’d face up to six months of community service. Several stumbling blocks remain. First, it’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s camp will acknowledge “moral turpitude,” a step that would bar the 72-year-old from running for public office for seven years. Even if both sides agree to the deal — which would include an admission of guilt from the former PM and current head of the opposition — the judge would have to issue a verdict and accept the deal, which some analysts and most Israelis say is too lenient. It’s a race against the clock: the current Attorney General wraps up his term in a few weeks. His successor might have a different view of this offer.
Escalation in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has launched a barrage of attacks in Yemen just days after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a surprise drone attack on oil tankers in the port of Abu Dhabi. At least 14 people were reportedly killed on Tuesday when Riyadh launched retaliatory air raids against Houthi strongholds in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. The Houthi port attack inside the UAE represents a significant escalation in the years-long civil war in Yemen, where Houthis have mostly targeted neighboring Saudi Arabia for its backing of government forces since 2015. An unannounced ceasefire between the Emiratis and Houthis had led to zero attacks inside the UAE from 2018 until this week. Though the Emiratis have scaled back their involvement in the conflict in Yemen in recent years, they continue to yield significant influence there.Coronavirus Politics Daily: Yemen ceasefire, Slovakia walls off the Roma, and rats return
Tenuous cease-fire in Yemen: The Saudi-UAE led coalition that has been battling Houthi rebels in Yemen announced Thursday a unilateral ceasefire, responding to a UN call for a halt in hostilities as coronavirus threatens one of the poorest countries in the world. Details are murky but the measure is to last for at least 14 days. The coalition's Houthi insurgent opponents, for their part, seem to have agreed to a cessation of hostilities but only if the Gulf states lift a yearlong air blockade. While there are potentially crossed signals, the ceasefire itself is still the most significant step towards peace in a five year civil war that's already killed some 100,000 people and left millions exposed to disease and starvation. Though no COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in Yemen (likely because of a lack of testing), the country's decrepit medical system could not withstand a serious outbreak of disease. The UN hopes this lull in fighting will pave the way for broader peace talks. Past attempts at halting the conflict have failed, and recent months actually saw increased fighting in a war that is largely viewed as a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Will the specter of a pandemic finally bring these bitter rivals to the table?
Slovakia walls off Roma villages: Amid coronavirus fears, Slovakia's government has walled off several Roma settlements in the country's east, preventing their people from leaving, even to access essential services. Many of Slovakia's 500,000 Roma live in crowded and impoverished shantytowns, which the government says are a "high risk" for spreading COVID-19. Roma leaders point out that although testing has been scarce, only 31 out of Slovakia's 700 cases have been reported in Roma communities, and say that the isolation measures are just another example of the discrimination long-faced by Europe's 12 million Roma, the EU's largest ethnic minority. The Slovak prime minister said he would ensure food and medical deliveries to these enclaves despite restrictions on movement, but the Roma communities argue that if the government insists on blocking off their villages, which prevents them from getting to essential jobs in the informal economy, it needs to ensure a more generous social safety net for them.
Stars of the Black Plague return: You've probably seen pictures of animals around the world reclaiming urban and suburban spaces abandoned by quarantining humans. Goats roaming the streets in Wales. Monkey brawls in Thailand. Coyotes leaving their hearts in San Francisco. But one aspect of nature's return might be less fuzzy and fun and endearing. Robert Corrigan, a famous rodentologist in New York City has warned that as restaurants close and streets fall silent, public spaces and people's homes could be overrun by rats in search of scarcer food. We've already seen video of the pests having a party on a deserted street in the heart of New Orleans. If the rats are unable to turn up the usual survival scraps by running through our homes, Corrigan told The Hill, they could turn to cannibalism – devouring each other instead. Rats of course have a bit of a history with pandemics. They are remembered as the villains of the Black Plague – though the rats we've spoken to are quick to point out that fleas were the real culprit then. Keep your trash tightly covered, readers.