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Opinion: The biggest problem for Syria's new rulers
The rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, who toppled the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad less than a week ago, have a lot of things to do now: restore order, provide security, manage all the external powers that are jockeying for position in the new Syria.
But while they’re doing all of that they also have to deal with the flags guy.
As a Financial Times piece from Damascus this week describes, HTS rebels have been canvassing various government ministries to figure out who does what in the country they now control. One guy they met runs the Department of Flags. The responsibility of this “department” is, apparently, to hang flags for visiting foreign dignitaries.
Sure, the hanging of flags doesn’t seem like the most pressing item on the agenda right now, but the episode highlights something important: HTS is dealing with the problem that all successful revolutionaries do – now that they run the show, who’s going to … actually run the show?
After all, revolutions are carried out by fighters, but governments are run by bureaucrats. And most hardened militants aren’t particularly good at coordinating trash collection routes, running power plants, processing tax returns, organizing school curricula, or renewing driver's licenses – that is to say, doing all of the mundane things that affect most people’s lives most of the time.
Alongside the grander and more telegenic sweeps of a revolution – the triumphant entries and soaring speeches — there’s the more mundane work of governing well. A Syria broken and weary from more than a decade of war deserves at least as much.
So who’s going to do it? There are tens of thousands of people who worked the institutions of the state under Assad, but whom to keep, whom to fire, and whom to put on trial is the question.
That last part is particularly important in Syria today. All governments are evil in the eyes of the revolutionaries who topple them. But few were as fanatically brutal as the Assad regime and the Baath party institutions that supported it.
Even before the civil war began in 2011, the Soviet-inspired Assad regime had massacred or arrested tens of thousands of people in crackdowns on political opponents or religious movements. After the conflict erupted, Assad’s security forces “disappeared” more than 100,000 people, and tortured at least 15,000 people to death, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
A colleague of mine in Damascus described visiting the infamous Sednaya Prison there this week, where he saw a “person-sized hydraulic press” that was, detainees say, used to torture prisoners and crush dead bodies beyond recognition.
The Syrian people will rightly expect someone to pay for those crimes. But how widely to cast the net of responsibility now puts HTS in fraught territory.
If they purge or prosecute too few people, they risk enraging a population that wants justice. Purge too many, and the state institutions can fall apart. Or, worse, those fired can end up forming a new nucleus of aggrieved opposition to the government.
This is what happened in Iraq after 2003, where the US organized a clumsily executed “Debaathification” campaign, purging thousands of officials in a bid to rid the government of any and all Saddam Hussein loyalists.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara – aka Abu Mohammed al-Golani, one of GZERO’s top political game changers of 2024 – probably remembers that well: The Islamic State that he was once a part of got a huge boost from Iraqi Baathists who were driven out of their government jobs.
So far, al-Shara has said he plans to close the Assad regime’s most notorious prisons, dissolve its security forces, and prosecute those responsible for human rights abuses.
Hanging over all of this is the question of what kind of government al-Shara really intends to impose. He casts himself as a reformed jihadist interested primarily in the good governance of Syria. But his Salafist pedigree – and the presence of unreformed hardliners under the HTS umbrella – raises justifiable concerns about the treatment of religious minorities, non-religious people, and women in the new Syria.
And that’s where flag guys come back into the picture. When Syria’s new HTS-appointed Prime Minister Mohammed Bashir gave his first public address this week, he stood next to two flags. One was the green, white, and black flag of the anti-Assad opposition. The other was emblazoned with the shahada, the Islamic oath of faith, a flag used by HTS and other Sunni extremist groups.
The backlash about that second flag was immediate among more secular-minded or non-Sunni Syrians, fearful about the prospect of strict Islamic rule. The US, meanwhile, which is weighing whether to lift terror-related sanctions against HTS, has also said that Washington would only recognize the new government of Syria if it respects minority rights.
A day later, Bashir gave an interview to Al-Jazeera. Behind him was just one flag: the Syrian national one. Was this just an easy aesthetic concession to the critics? Or is HTS really going to try to build a reasonably inclusive Syria?
Nobody knows yet. But one thing’s for sure: It’s worth keeping an eye on the flag guys.
A woman uses a phone next to a fighter of the ruling Syrian body, after members of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Damascus old city, Syria, December 12, 2024.
Trump may follow Biden's line on Syria
On Saturday, not long after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad fled to Russia, Donald Trumpwrote — in all caps — that the United States should stay out of Syria: “This is not our fight,” he wrote. “Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
Trump, Vice-President-elect JD Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as Director of National Intelligence, are all skeptical of American military involvement in the Middle East. But experts think the next US administration will end up taking a position similar to the one taken by President Joe Biden, mostly because it is in the interest of the United States to prevent Syria from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.
Successful rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is a former al-Qaida fighter, but he has signaled that he has no interest in transnational terrorism and has sought to give assurances to Druze, Christians, and Alawite religious minorities that the new government of Syria will respect their rights.
Secretary of State Antony Blinkenhas offered to recognize Golani’s new government if he lives up to his promises. At the same time, the US military has been carrying out airstrikes against remnants of the Islamic State terrorist group. Two congressmen have written to Blinken asking him to ease US sanctions on Syria to give the new government a chance to rebuild the economy.
Experts think that although Trump might like to wash his hands of the whole country, American interests will likely require the US government to maintain troops in Syria, at least in the short term. He ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the region during his first term and then reversed his decision when confronted by the facts on the ground.
A view of the city of Tehran, Iran, amid pollution.
Hard Numbers: Tehran’s pollution closes schools, Social media swing vote, Militia controls Myanmar-Bangladesh border, Signs of Assad-era torture, Big boost for Ukraine
10 million: Officials in Tehran, a city of more than 10 million people, closed elementary schools and kindergartens on Saturday and Sunday because of dangerous levels of air pollution. On Tuesday, they announced the closure of all governmental offices, universities, and schools on Wednesday and Thursday. Schools will move classes online. In Iran, schools are generally open from Saturday to Wednesday.
45: A new survey found that 45% of “Swing voters” in the US presidential election reported getting most of their news from social media. Just 39% cited local news as their primary source of information, and 38% cited broadcast news.
168: A militia fighting on behalf of the Buddhist Rakhine minority group has driven Myanmar’s army out of its last outpost along the country’s 168-mile border with Bangladesh. This rebel group now claims control of the northern part of Rakhine state, where locals have pushed for independence.
40: The HTS rebels who now control Syria’s government say their search of a hospital morgue has discovered 40 bodies that show signs of torture by former dictator Bashar Assad’s security forces. Human rights groups say more than 100,000 people have disappeared since Assad ordered the 2011 crackdown on protests that ignited the country’s civil war.
20 billion: The US confirmed that it has sent $20 billion to Ukraine from seized Russian assets as part of a $50 billion G7 package to make Russia “bear the costs of its illegal war, instead of taxpayers," in the words of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The US Treasury transferred the $20 billion to a World Bank fund; money handled by the World Bank cannot be used for military purposes. Instead, it is intended to be used for hospitals and emergency services. The move comes weeks before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would cut aid to Ukraine.
HTS leader Ahmed Al-Shara, aka Abu Muhammad Al-Golani, overlooks Damascus, Syria, after the overthrow of Bashar Assad on Dec. 8, 2024.
What’s next for Syria: HTS appoints PM, Kurds caught in the crossfire, Israel makes a move
HTS appoints PM for Syria’s transitional government
The Shura Council of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister of its proposed 18-month transitional government of Syria.
Who is Mohammed Bashir? Born in 1983 in a village in Jabal Zawiya, an area of Idlib province, Bashir graduated from Aleppo University in 2007 with a bachelor's in electrical engineering, and from Idlib University with a degree in Sharia and Law in 2021. He also worked as an engineer for a gas plant affiliated with the Syrian Gas Company. Bashir is proficient in English and has been conducting press conferences for the SSE for the past year, as well as speaking with the media during the recent HTS campaign. It is not known if he is a hardliner or more moderate in his views.
What were Bashir’s previous roles with HTS? Bashir served for a year as head of the HTS-linked Syrian Salvation Government, or SSG, in Idlib in northwestern Syria, as well as Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs for the SSG under his predecessor there, Ali Keda. Before that, he was the director of Islamic Education at the SSG’s Ministry of Awqaf for two and a half years. According to his SSG profile, in Idlib Bashir focused on modernizing government processes using technology, encouraging investment, strengthening the economy, and “meeting the humanitarian needs” of displaced persons.
Concern for the Kurds
Will Syria’s Kurdish minority face renewed persecution – and possibly lose its autonomy - under an HTS government? While many cheer the ouster of Bashar Assad, there is concern about how they will be treated under the new Turkish-backed regime.
Who are the Kurds? Syria’s 2.5 million Kurds, primarily Sunni Muslims, comprise about 15% of Syria’s population. A third live in the Taurus Mountains near Aleppo, another third along the Turkish border in the Jazirah, around 10% near Jarabulus northeast of Aleppo with the remainder residing on the outskirts of Damascus. The Kurds were nomadic until the end of the Ottoman Empire when their population was divided across several nation-states. The Syrian government began stripping the Kurds of their Syrian nationality in 1962 and has conducted a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing designed to erase their culture and identity.
In neighboring Turkey, Kurds comprise about 18% of the population and have been severely oppressed by successive governments, including the current administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Armed resistance by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has resulted in over 40,000 deaths since the 1980s.
What is the Kurds’ geopolitical significance? The US supported the Kurds – and relied on them – in its fight against the Islamic State in the 2010s, and according to senior government officials, will continue to do so under the new regime. However, since the defeat of ISIS in 2019, the diminished US presence left many Kurds at the mercy of Turkish troops. Now, Turkey has announced that it will be reopening its border with Syria, to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. An estimated 3 million refugees are currently living in Turkey – and facilitating their return could also provide an opportunity for Erdogan to eliminate the Kurdish presence on the border.
Israel’s buffer raises Egypt’s ire
On Sunday, Israel seized Syrian land near the Golan Heights, citing security concerns as Assad’s forces vacate the area and the new HTS government takes shape. Israel claims that its 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement with Syria is no longer in force with Assad’s ouster, creating a power vacuum in the area. Israel has sent tanks over the border into the buffer zone with Syria, calling the move temporary, limited, and aimed at ensuring Israel’s security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move is necessary and that Israel “will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”
What is Egypt saying? In response, Egypt has denounced the move as an opportunistic land grab, accusing Israel of exploiting the situation “to occupy more Syrian territories” and calling on the UN Security Council to take “a firm position towards the Israeli aggression on Syria.”
Egypt considers Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War, an occupation. Israel annexed the Heights in 1981, a move that has only been recognized by the US.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.