Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Malala Yousafzai speaks during the Transforming Education Summit on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in Manhattan, New York.
What We’re Watching: UNGA meets amid global crises, Hungary scrambles to secure EU funds, protests persist in Iran
UNGA high-level talks begin
World leaders are gathering at the United Nations headquarters in New York this week for the annual General Assembly. The event kicked off Monday with a summit on education. On the plus side, they’re attending in person for the first time since the pandemic began. On the down side, the world is as divided as it’s been at any time since the Cold War. An overarching item on the agenda will be the ongoing war in Ukraine — debate will focus not only on how to end the war, but also the extent to which the nations of the world are willing to hold Russia accountable for starting the conflict and for potential war crimes. A second but related issue is the ongoing global food crisis, which has been worsened by the war in Ukraine despite a recent agreement to resume grain shipments from Ukrainian ports. The UN World food program is worried food prices could continue to rise over the next five years. Third is climate change, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that “the message to world leaders is clear: lower the temperature — now.”
EU takes aim at Hungary
The European Union and Hungary have squabbled for years over the EU’s right to impose rules and values on its members. The EU accuses PM Viktor Orbán of undermining democracy, rule of law, and the independence of courts and the media within his country for political gain. A talented and avowedly “illiberal” populist, Orbán styles himself as a defender of Hungary’s traditional values against Brussels’s elites. To force him into line, the EU has one effective tool: it can withhold large amounts of cash from a member state if it can prove that corruption in the country is leading to the theft of EU funds. On Sunday, for the first time ever, the EU used this mechanism, threatening to withhold 7.5 billion euros (about 5% of Hungary’s GDP) unless Budapest takes very specific steps to crack down on corruption. The Hungarian government, already grappling with high inflation, a weakening currency, and a coming energy crisis, has so far said all the right things about its willingness to comply. On Monday, it submitted an anti-corruption bill to parliament with the promise of more to come. But on November 19, the EU Council and the 26 other EU states will decide (by a qualified-majority vote) whether to withhold or deliver the funds.
Days after Mahsa Amini’s death, protests in Iran continue
Iranians took to the streets on Monday for a third day of protests following the in-custody death of a young Iranian woman. Mahsa Amini, 22, was allegedly beaten to death by the Islamic Republic’s morality police for failing to comply with the regime’s strict head-covering requirements. Protests broke out after her funeral in a Kurdish province, as well as in Tehran, where some students held placards reading “women, life, freedom.” What’s more, a social media campaign has gained steam with women cutting their hair on camera and tearing off their headscarves in solidarity with the slain woman. The death of Amini, who was visiting Tehran with her brother when she was apprehended for not wearing a hijab, has sparked broader demonstrations against the morality police (known as the Guidance Patrol), which enforce the strict modesty rules for women instituted after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The government responded by cutting internet access and cracking down on protesters – including firing tear gas to disperse crowds. Meanwhile, President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner who recently signed a decree mandating stricter punishments for women who violate modesty laws both in public and online, wants the protests to end before he addresses the UN General Assembly in New York this week.Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China February 4, 2022
What We're Watching: Putin-Xi meeting, Brussels vs. Budapest, Sweden's next government, Japanese yen in trouble,
Putin hears out Xi on Ukraine, blasts “unipolar” world
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in person on Thursday for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Russian leader said he valued the “balanced position” Beijing has taken over Ukraine, noting that he understood Xi’s “concerns” about how the war is going (not well). But since there’s no way the Russian president will reverse course in Ukraine, he took the opportunity to play his greatest hits, railing against US-led efforts to create a “unipolar” world that leaves both Russia and China out to dry. Putin might consider what a US Senate committee did Wednesday an example of that. It advanced a bill that would for the first time authorize providing $4.5 billion worth of direct US military aid to Taiwan. The proposal still needs to pass the Senate, and the White House is not fully on board. But if it becomes law, Beijing will likely see this as a de facto change in US policy toward Taiwan. Since 1979, Washington has sold Taiwan weapons to defend itself against a Chinese invasion that was considered a long shot just a decade ago. Not so much now — which explains why the US is mulling preemptive sanctions to deter Xi.
Will Brussels freeze out Budapest?
The European Union’s executive reportedly plans to recommend withholding billions of dollars in funds to Hungary due to alleged corruption by the Hungarian government. What’s more, in a symbolic vote on Thursday, the European Parliament declared Hungary a “hybrid electoral autocracy,” a scathing condemnation of PM Viktor Orbán’s leadership. Brussels and Budapest have long been on a collision course over the latter’s erosion of democratic norms since Orbán’s conservative Fidesz Party came to power in 2012. Hungary is hoping to unlock more than 40 billion euros of EU funding over the next five years, but the EU alleges that Budapest has failed to reform its public procurement process, which undermines competition and favors government allies. If Brussels follows through, it would send a worrying message to other rogue EU states – like Poland – that have been at loggerheads with Brussels over rule-of-law issues. A final decision will be released Sunday and would need to be passed by a majority of member states to take effect. Orbán, who has long relished his reputation as an anti-EU warrior, has reason to worry given that annual inflation in Hungary hit a whopping 15.6% in August and the currency continues to depreciate.
Sweden’s next government
Magdalena Andersson resigned as Sweden’s prime minister on Thursday following a narrow election defeat for her center-left bloc last weekend. Her Social Democrats – which have dominated Swedish politics for nearly a century – remain the country’s largest party, but it’s bloc politics that matter most, and the parties of the right have proven more unified than those of the left. Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson will now try to form a government. Controversies over immigration policy, price inflation, and rising crime have increased support for a bloc of conservative parties that also includes the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, which have used the promise to “make Sweden safe again” to stride from the wings to center-stage in Swedish politics. It remains unclear how large a role the Sweden Democrats might play in a Kristersson-led government. Following elections four years ago, it took four months for Andersson to form a government. But Kristersson will begin coalition talks at a moment of national urgency as the country battles an economic crisis and prepares to enter NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Anti-immigration policies can limit the size of the potential workforce, pushing wages higher. So, the big question will be how conservative parties that are primarily pro-business will bargain with the anti-immigration nationalists of the Sweden Democrats, now the country’s second-most popular party.
Japanese yen drops, further weakening Kishida
Things aren’t going well for Japan’s government. The Japanese yen has continued to drop against an increasingly strong US dollar in recent months, falling to a 24-year low on Thursday. The government, meanwhile, says it has not ruled out intervening to try to prop up the ailing currency, though Tokyo also acknowledged that the effect of such a move would be minimal, in large part because of the significant interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan. While Washington has steadily been raising interest rates to curb inflation, Tokyo has kept rates ultra-low in line with its long-held view that a weak currency is good for exports. But current global inflationary pressures have revealed the vulnerabilities of this approach. This comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose disapproval rating recently reached 41%, the highest level since he took office a year ago. Kishida’s popularity has nosedived over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's ties to the controversial Unification Church following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe. Moreover, the government’s decision to hold an expensive state funeral for the slain former PM on Sept. 27 has been broadly criticized.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during their meeting in Budapest.
What We're Watching: Hungarian holdout, hope in Shanghai, US troops return to Somalia
Is Hungary holding the EU “hostage”?
The European Commission is pushing hard for a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil imports. But one member state — Hungary — has gone rogue and is holding up the embargo. At a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday, Lithuania’s representative accused Hungary of holding the bloc “hostage,” after PM Viktor Orbán demanded that Brussels dole out hundreds of millions of dollars to offset losses from moving away from cheap Russian fossil fuels. Orbán is buddies with Vladimir Putin and has been trying to expand Hungary’s economic relationship with the Kremlin in recent months, so he is driving a hard bargain, saying that ditching Russian oil would be an “atomic bomb” for his country’s economy. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russia for around 45% of its total oil imports, and finding alternative sources could lead to shortages and price hikes at a time when Hungarians are already grappling with sky-high inflation. Still, Brussels says Budapest is being greedy because Hungary has already been given a longer window — until the end of 2024 — to phase out Russian imports. But Orbán is hoping to get more concessions ahead of a big EU summit on May 30, when the bloc aims to find a political solution to this stalemate.
Shanghai’s June bloom
Officials in China’s most populous city say they are planning for life to return to normal by June 1 following a draconian COVID lockdown that has kept most of Shanghai’s 26 million residents cooped up since early April. China’s zero-COVID policy, which imposes harsh restrictions in response to even the smallest outbreaks of the virus, has wreaked havoc not only on the lives of tens of millions of people in Shanghai and other Chinese cities but on global supply chains too. When the world’s second-largest economy buys and makes fewer things, the world quickly feels it. Public health experts, including the head of the World Health Organization, have said that zero-COVID is unsustainable due to the high transmissibility of omicron, but Beijing remains unmoved. Given the low vaccination rates among China’s elderly (and most vulnerable) population and questions about the efficacy of Chinese-made jabs more broadly, researchers warn that if omicron were left to spread freely in China, more than 1 million people could die in the coming months. That’s something that Xi Jinping seems keen to avoid ahead of this fall’s 20th Party Congress, where he’s aiming to be re-“elected” to an unprecedented third term as party boss and president. Will Shanghai soon find a way out of lockdown, and will the city become a model for other Chinese urban centers looking to get back to normal?
US troops return to Somalia
The Biden administration has approved a Pentagon request to redeploy US troops to conflict-ridden Somalia. This comes less than two years after the Trump administration withdrew almost all 700 US ground troops from the East African nation as part of a broader effort to pull back from “forever wars” in faraway places. Fewer than 500 troops will be stationed in Somalia, according to the US Department of Defense, which says that since Trump’s pullback, al-Shabab — a militant group loosely aligned with al-Qaida — has expanded its reach across the country. As part of Washington’s new counterterrorism mission, President Joe Biden has also reportedly authorized the targeting of al-Shabab leaders. It remains unclear, however, whether this will allow the US military to conduct airstrikes inside Somalia. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s newly tapped president, welcomed the US’ return, but many Americans who supported Biden’s pledge to end US involvement in foreign conflicts might not feel the same way, particularly given the symbolism associated with the previous (and disastrous) US presence in Somalia.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
Orbán fights for his political life
Just six weeks away from a national election, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the political fight of his life. In recent days, the right-wing populist leader, who has proudly dubbed Hungary an “illiberal democracy,” launched his re-election campaign with a speech rallying against war between Russia and Ukraine. He also voiced support for the EU project despite saying that Brussel was waging “jihad” against his country.
What is Orbán’s game plan, and how are things looking for him and his ruling Fidesz Party?
Background: An “anyone but Orbán” election. Opposition groups are working together to try and oust the 58-year-old Orbán, a divisive figure who’s been in power since 2010. During that time, he has been accused of hollowing out Hungary’s governing institutions, undermining democracy, and damaging his country’s standing within the European Union.
United for Hungary – a broad coalition including the far-right Jobbik party as well as the progressive Democratic Coalition – has put partisanship aside in a bid to send Orbán packing. The group of strange bedfellows recently tapped Péter Márki-Zay, a politically conservative small-town mayor from southeastern Hungary, to lead the bloc. This is bad news for Orbán, an arch-conservative with strong support in rural and small-town Hungary, who paints his opponents as progressive shills. That charge doesn’t quite stick to Márki-Zay, a devout Catholic with seven kids. For now, the odds are still in Orbán’s favor.
Spending spree. Orbán has traditionally been fiscally cautious, and he was credited with slashing public debt after the financial crisis and steering the country away from default.
But Orbán has changed tack in recent months. Facing a tight race, he is trying to woo pandemic-weary Hungarians by boosting spending on pensions. In total, new government handouts and tax cuts could cost some 5 billion euros.
The Russian connection. Orbán, who entered politics in 1989 by forming an anti-Soviet youth party, has in recent years cozied up to the Kremlin, a fellow “illiberal” and conservative power center. In recent weeks, as Russia-Ukraine tensions were rising, Orbán – who leads a NATO member state – met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where he expressed sympathy for the Kremlin’s position on Ukraine.
Orbán was also trying to shore up natural gas supplies from Russia in order to keep fuel prices down at home – and in the process, was hoping to boost his image as an international statesman. It’s unclear whether he pulled that off.
The Ukraine wildcard. For as chummy as Orbán and Putin are, the Ukraine situation is still a wildcard factor for Hungary’s election. A Russian invasion could drive a major surge of refugees west to the Hungarian border. Orbán has famously opposed immigration from the Middle East and Africa. Would he feel differently about Ukrainians? The last thing he wants is to have to figure that out in the homestretch of a tough reelection fight.
Looking ahead. Orbán has become a populist icon in recent years. Trump enthusiastically endorsed him for reelection, and Fox News personality Tucker Carlson has also showered the Hungarian leader with affection. Orbán’s fate could very well be a bellwether for global populist nationalism in a post-COVID world.
A carnival float depicting leader of the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the traditional "Rosenmontag" Rose Monday carnival parade in Duesseldorf, Germany, February 12, 2018.
The EU takes a swing at Poland and Hungary
The European Union is, for better or worse, the most ambitious experiment in human history in institutionalized multinational cooperation. Its success depends on the willingness of its members to abide by its rules.
In recent years, the populist-nationalist governments of former Communist bloc members Hungary and Poland have flouted some of those rules in order to boost their own popularity with citizens suspicious of the EU's liberal values on issues like immigration and minority rights. In response, the EU has scolded these "illiberal" governments and threatened forceful action – so far without much effect.
The fight between EU institutions and Poland and Hungary has escalated.
In Poland, the latest battle is over judicial authority. According to EU treaties, all union members are subject to EU laws and the final authority of the European Court of Justice. But Poland's constitutional court ruled last week that Poland's constitution trumps EU law, a direct challenge to the basis of EU membership.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has faced off with the EU over press freedom and minority rights. The latest row began when Hungary's parliament passed legislation that bans the display to minors of products that depict or promote homosexuality or gender transformation themes. The government says the law protects kids and Hungary's family values, while the European Commission says it undermines values of tolerance and individual freedom enshrined in European law.
In the past, picking fights with the EU has boosted the popularity of both Orbán and Poland's Law and Justice Party-led government, headed by Jaroslaw Kaczyński, by playing on the anger that social conservatives feel toward liberal elites in Brussels. That's the main reason these governments tend to welcome fights with the EU.
They also know that, no matter how frustrated EU officials become with challenges from Warsaw and Budapest, the EU can't kick them out. Ejection requires a unanimous vote of all 27 EU members. To protect their own interests, Poland would veto such a move against Hungary, and Hungary would do the same for Poland.
But… there are three main reasons to believe that this time it's different.
First, it appears EU officials have had enough. Poland's court ruling is too direct a challenge to EU rules to ignore, and Hungary's government has been picking fights with Brussels for years.
Second, the European leader most instrumental in persuading EU institutions to go easy on Poland and Hungary is now leaving the stage. Germany's Angela Merkel will soon be out of power, and the country's likely incoming center-left coalition government will be much less sympathetic to rule-of-law challenges from its Eastern neighbors.
Third, Brussels has a powerful new weapon. The European Commission can withhold large amounts of much-needed COVID recovery funds until these two governments prove they respect EU rules. That's 36 billion euros ($41.7 billion) for Poland and 7.2 billion euros for smaller Hungary. The Commission is already signaling that Poland and Hungary will have to offer serious and specific concessions before checks are cut. Initial disbursements have already been delayed.
The Polish and Hungarian governments have limited leverage to fight back. Opinion polls show that strong majorities in both countries favor continued EU membership — and both governments have acknowledged as much. In Poland, the court rulings sent hundreds of thousands of pro-EU Poles into the streets in protest.
And Hungary's Orbán faces a tough fight for re-election next year against a united opposition that has labelled the race a choice of "Orbán or Europe."
Both governments need only look toward the Czech Republic, where a surprise election result last weekend leaves euroskeptic, anti-immigration populist Andrej Babiš on the verge of losing power.
These fights will drag on into next year. But this time, Brussels may finally be fighting to win.
Is Hungary in for an "anyone but Orbán" election?
Viktor Orbán, Hungary's far-right populist prime minister, likes to shock people. It's part of his political appeal. Orbán has proudly proclaimed that he is an "illiberal" leader," creating a frenzy in Brussels because Hungary is a member of the European Union.
It's been over a decade since the 58-year old, whom some have dubbed the "Trump before Trump" became prime minister. In that time he has, critics say, hollowed out Hungary's governing institutions and eroded the state's democratic characteristics.
But now for the first time since then, Orbán faces a real challenge to his power. Six ideologically-diverse opposition parties have joined forces to unseat him. But even if the opposition bloc wins elections next spring, a hard feat given Orbán's popular appeal, what would it even mean to "liberalize" Hungary again?
Orbán: Liked but not loved. Early in his political career, Orbán learnt that popular resentment could be harnessed as a political weapon. After the collapse of Hungary's communist regime, Orbán, a student who grew up in the countryside without running water, became a founding member of Fidesz (then called "Alliance of Young Democrats"), an anti-communism youth party. Under his influence, in particular his close alliance with Hungary's influential churches, the party took on a strongly socially conservative bent as well as a resentment of so-called "urban elites."
Since then, Orbán has fashioned himself as a bulwark against a corrupt political elite detached from salt-of-the-earth Hungarians who are tired of being pushed around by liberal elites and global heavyweights. In recent years, he has appealed in particular to Hungarians' strong sense of nationalism to rally against the progressive and migrant-friendly policies of the European Union.
Still, while Orban's anti-EU, anti-immigrant sentiment has struck a chord with many Hungarians — particularly during Europe's migrant crisis in 2015 — he has not personally endeared himself to constituents like, say, Donald Trump or Israel's Bibi Netanyahu. (No one, for example, is getting Orbán's initials inked across their chest.) Analysts say that the absence of cult-like infatuation surrounding the PM could indeed bode well for those vying to unseat him.
A ragtag opposition makes common cause. Last December, opposition parties put aside their political differences and teamed up to oust Orbán. Undoubtedly, this unsettled Orbán, who had long exploited discord within the opposition to tighten his grip on power. Tellingly, the opposition bloc — which spans the political spectrum and includes the progressive Democratic Coalition and the right-wing Jobbik party — has vowed to run unity candidates in all 106 legislative races. For now, the plan is working: Fidesz and the United Opposition are neck-and-neck in the polls.
Meanwhile, Budapest's liberal mayor Gergely Karácsony — formerly a member of the Green Politics Can be Different Party who won the mayoral race in a massive upset in 2019, defeating the Fidesz-aligned incumbent — is considered the frontrunner to head the opposition after leadership primaries take place in September. Karácsony is also a former political pollster, which is sure to come in handy on the campaign trail. Still, an upset in relatively liberal Budapest is one thing — replicating that at the national level will require winning over millions of more conservative rural voters.
What's actually at stake? Well, democracy. Hungary has taken an authoritarian turn under Orbán, who has cracked down on the independent media and restructured the electoral map to benefit Fidesz (Hungarian gerrymandering, if you will). Crucially, he has also gutted the judiciary, stacking the Constitutional Court with loyalists. And in some instances, the government has simply scoffed at court rulings. (Last year, Orbán said he would ignore a court ruling ordering the government to compensate Roma families for school segregation policies.) The EU, for its part, has condemned the erosion of the rule of law in the country, though Brussels has never been able to dish out anything more punitive than a wrist slap.
More recently, Orbán, like his ideological compatriots in Poland, has taken up the third rail issue of LGBT rights, vowing to soon hold a referendum on banning LGBT content from school curriculums. (Opposition figures said the move aimed to deflect attention from recent allegations that Orbán's government spied on journalists and activists.)
Even if the opposition wins next spring, reversing Orbán's political legacies — dilution of the independent judiciary, increased corruption and cronyism — will be extremely challenging. That's because Orbán's reforms are now entrenched in many of Hungary's institutions: for example, parliament recently appointed an Orbán ally to head the Supreme Court for nine years. Additionally, overriding big legislation requires a two-thirds majority in parliament, a pipe dream for the fragmented opposition. And even if Fidesz loses, the group will still remain immensely popular for some time.
The (potential) de-Orbanization of Hungary. Winning the election next year is only half the battle for Hungary's fired-up opposition. Reversing the political legacy of an illiberal stalwart like Viktor Orbán could take many, many years.