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Jess Frampton

Trump’s 4D checkers, China’s opportunity, climate hopes, and more: Your questions, answered

Welcome to another edition of my mailbag, where I attempt to make sense of our increasingly chaotic world, one reader question at a time. If you have a burning question for me before I go back to full-length columns, ask it here and I’ll answer as many as I can in next week’s newsletter.

Let’s dive in (with questions lightly edited for clarity).

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- YouTube

Inside the Harvard-Trump showdown

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hey everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm here at the Kennedy School at Harvard University, with my buddy Steve Walt.

Stephen Walt: Nice to see you, Ian.

Ian Bremmer:

And kind of ground zero for a lot of things happening geopolitically right now. How does it feel to be an independent variable?

Stephen Walt:

It feels better than it felt two or three weeks ago when many people at the university were worried whether we were going to actually bend the knee, cave in, give the administration what it wanted, do pretty much what Columbia did. And when the administration, perhaps mistakenly, sent that letter last week or so, and the president responded appropriately, I think there was a huge collective sigh of relief in the Harvard community. And the response that Harvard has gotten now, including from people who don't like Harvard, that someone finally stood up and said, "This is unacceptable," has been quite gratifying.

Ian Bremmer:

Harvard, huge endowment, not a poor campus, lots of influence in Boston community and around the world, but we're talking about billions of dollars of funding a year. We're talking maybe about not providing green cards for international students, lifeblood of the Kennedy School. What's at stake here, do you think?

Stephen Walt:

What's at stake is the presence of independent centers of thought in a free society. I mean, ultimately this is an attempt by the administration to bring Harvard, as the world's most prominent private university, under its control. If you read the letter carefully, they were basically wanting to have control over who got hired, control over what got taught, control over content of curriculum, control over admissions, in a variety of different ways. At which point the university is no longer independent. It has to get up every morning, say to itself, "Gee, what does the president think of what we're doing here?" And that means you don't have independent thought.

So two big problems. One is of course this is going to reduce scientific and technological progress in the United States in a whole series of areas.

Ian Bremmer:

Because that's so much of what the funding is actually going for.

Stephen Walt:

That's exactly right. Particularly medical research in particular. But it's also important in a free society you have a wide range of opinions, people who can challenge what's going on, and can challenge it from the right, challenge it from the left. One of my colleagues is one of the people who discovered the China shock, that a bunch of American jobs had gone to China due to previous economic policies. Something that of course Trump has played on, etc. So the point is you want lots of different ideas in a free society. You don't want the government to be able to control what people can teach, control what people can think, because how you get big mistakes. That's how you get Mao's Great Leap Forward because no one could criticize him, no one could challenge it, no one could even report what was happening. So there's actually more at stake than just scientific research here. It's also independent thought. Again, from across the political spectrum.

Ian Bremmer:

Does it feel like a resist moment on Harvard campus right now? Is that the kind of emotion that comes with it?

Stephen Walt:

This isn't a sort of let's go to the mattresses moment. The university did not want to have this fight. I think they were negotiating in good faith to see if they could come to an accommodation that would satisfy some of the concerns, including some legitimate concerns about whether or not a wide enough range of viewpoints was being expressed on campus. So I think they were negotiating in good faith.

The one advantage in the government's letter was it was so extreme that we had really no choice at this point. And I think the university now is going to go about its business. It's going to continue to teach. It's going to continue to do the research we want to do. It's going to have to do it with fewer resources. And I think we're all aware of the fact that there's going to have to be some costs paid by the faculty, unfortunately by our students and staff as well. And I think we're willing to do that.

Ian Bremmer:

And Harvard is well-known, has been ever since I was a kid, as the leading higher education facility in the United States and in the world. Also has gotten itself part of the political tribal fighting going on and we saw the former president basically ousted under that pressure in part. What do you think Harvard needs to do to be seen not just as the place that you want to go to university, but also as a place that is above the political fray?

Stephen Walt:

Well, because universities are islands of thought they're never going to be completely separate from the political fray. But I strongly believe in institutional neutrality, that the university should not be taking public positions on political issues that do not directly affect the university. So yes, we do have a public position on say, student visas. That's important for us. But we don't necessarily have a public position and shouldn't have a public position on the war in Ukraine or what to do about the Middle East or whether affirmative action was a good thing or not. Gay marriage maybe would be one that you'd say. It's not something where the university takes position. Individual faculty can say what they want and should, and they can disagree and they will, and they do. But the president of the university, the board of trustees, et cetera, they don't take a particular institutional position. I very much agree with that.

That doesn't mean the university won't be political and it won't be politicized as well. I think first of all, we need to reaffirm that, that our business is doing independent research and doing teaching, that we are open to a wide range of opinions, that we care about rigor and honesty and research. We can disagree. You can even be wrong. Scholars are wrong all the time. But they can't be dishonest. So we have very high standards and we're not advancing a particular agenda other than the pursuit of truth for the benefit of society as a whole.

Ian Bremmer:

So broader point before we close this down. State of democracy in the United States right now. What worries you most and where do you see the most structural strength and resilience?

Stephen Walt:

What worries me the most is the inability of a set of institutions that I would've thought 20 years ago were pretty rock solid to impede what looks to me like an authoritarian grab for power.

Ian Bremmer:

Are you talking about the judiciary?

Stephen Walt:

I'm talking about in part the judiciary.

Ian Bremmer:

Or Congress?

Stephen Walt:

And Congress and the fact that they've been willing to essentially suspend most of their checks and balances roles in recent years.

I am encouraged, unfortunately, by the degree to which opinion seems to be shifting as to whether or not the direction of the Trump administration is the right course for the country.

Ian Bremmer:

Specifically on trade at this point?

Stephen Walt:

Trade, one, economic effects.

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah.

Stephen Walt:

I think people are starting to be uncomfortable with the idea that we're gutting the engine of scientific progress that has driven American technological and scientific leadership for decades. That that's going to have consequences sooner rather than later. And I think people are nervous, not everybody, but people are nervous about turning what have been some of our closest friends in the world into adversaries or enemies. I mean, when you pick a fight with Canada, the greatest bit of geopolitical good fortune the United States ever had, having Canada as a neighbor. When you turn them into an adversary, that's not going to end well.

Ian Bremmer:

Steve Walt, always good to see you, my friend.

Stephen Walt:

Nice to see you. Take care.

- YouTube

Trump’s inaction on wrongful deportation may spark constitutional crisis

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

If the US won't work to return a wrongly deported man to El Salvador despite a Supreme Court ruling, are we headed towards a constitutional crisis?

It certainly appears that way, and I think this is the constitutional crisis that the Trump administration would love to have. Because wrongfully deporting someone without evidence who is in the country illegally and therefore guilty of a misdemeanor, but sending them to a max security prison, which the Supreme Court says you shouldn't do, but now is in another country. Very few Americans are sympathetic to the case of this person. And indeed, Trump won on the basis in part of being sick and tired of allowing illegal immigrants to spend enormous amounts of time in the United States without recourse.

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- YouTube

How Ukraine feels about negotiating with Russia

What would Ukraine be willing to offer Russia to bring an end to the war? It’s a question that’s been asked over and over, but now seems closer to reality than any point since the fighting began. As the White House negotiates with the Kremlin for a ceasefire deal, would Kyiv be willing to cede territory to get Moscow to the negotiating table? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war—and what it will take to end it. According to Kuleba, who resigned last September amid a cabinet shuffle, Ukraine is ready to compromise, but not if it means giving away the rights to what millions of Ukrainians see as historically, legally theirs. A nation that abandons its dream, he warns, is “determined to lose.” It will also take more than concessions from Ukraine to achieve a meaningful ceasefire. According to the foreign minister, the Trump administration needs to start getting tough on Putin to make it clear to him Russia can’t win this war on its own.

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- YouTube

Will Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine?

President Trump has made it clear: He wants a ceasefire in Ukraine. The White House has been engaging with Russia diplomatically, while making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US military support isn’t a guarantee. The problem? Moscow has so far shown no interest in meaningful compromise. Instead, the Kremlin is slow walking negotiations and increasing demands for concessions, all the while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. The delay tactics are testing the patience of the friendliest White House it’s faced in years. But will the Trump administration actually start piling the pressure on Russia? And even if Putin makes a deal, can Kyiv trust him to honor it? On GZERO World, Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba joins Ian Brmmer to discuss President Trump’s negotiation strategy, Russia’s goals, and Ukraine’s uncertain future.

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Pushing Putin for a ceasefire: Dmytro Kuleba on Ukraine's future and Russia's goals

Listen: What will it take to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? President Trump is pushing hard for a ceasefire deal, but is Vladimir Putin actually interested in negotiation? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war with Russia—and what it will take to end it. Kuleba resigned last year amid a cabinet shuffle, but spent years at the heart of Ukraine’s diplomatic fight for survival. As long as Russia believes it can win the war, he says, Putin will never compromise on a meaningful ceasefire deal. That won’t change until the Kremlin faces serious pressure from the White House, which so far has seemed to only offer incentives to Moscow, while punishing Kyiv, according to Kuleba. So is Trump ready to get tough on Putin? And what is Ukraine prepared to offer Russia in return to bring the fighting to an end? Bremmer and Kuleba discuss Putin’s goals in the war, the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, and what it will take to finally bring peace to Ukraine.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

- YouTube

Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire?

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump said ending the war in Ukraine would be easy. Again and again, he promised to end the fighting within “24 hours” of taking office. But as president, and as Russia drags its feet in ceasefire negotiations, Trump has walked that confidence back. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at President Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and what it will take to bring both sides to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has been engaging diplomatically with Moscow and making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US support isn’t a guarantee.

The problem is that so far, the Kremlin seems uninterested in meaningful compromise. Instead, it’s been slow-walking negotiations and increasing its demands for concessions, all while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. Turns out, diplomacy is a lot more complicated than a Manhattan real estate deal: complex, slow, and full of people who don’t care about self-imposed deadlines. But there are signs that the president’s patience with Moscow is wearing thin. As Russia keeps stalling, will Trump start piling the pressure on Putin to make a ceasefire happen?

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).

New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.

- YouTube

"We've lost enormous credibility around the world" because of tariffs - Summers

On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, economist Larry Summers slams the Trump administration’s trade war as “the worst, most consequential, self-inflicted wound in US economic policy since the Second World War.” He says there’s still time to limit the damage—if the tariffs are walked back quickly—but warns that the global fallout is already underway. “Even in the best imaginable place, we have lost enormous credibility in the world,” Summers says, adding that the unpredictability rattles everything from debt markets to US alliances.

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