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People hold signs reading "Trump, we will not pay for the wall" and "Trump, stop the mass deportations" near the border fence between Mexico and the U.S., in Tijuana, Mexico March 13, 2018.
Trump’s immigration plan faces hurdles
The president-elect has promised to deport between 15 and 20 million people, which is more than the roughly 13.3 million undocumented people estimated to be residing in the US. “There's a lot of uncertainty around how high deportations could go under Trump,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith. “I'd roughly estimate he will deport between 500,000 and 600,000 in 2025.” That would mark an increase from the current number of approximately 200,000 annually. But, Daponte-Smith added, “there's room for that number to move upward.”
What are Trump’s immigration plans? On the campaign trail, he promised to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. So far, the president-elect has tapped immigration hardliners likeStephen Miller, Tom Homan, and Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as his deputy chief of staff, border czar, and chief of Homeland Security, respectfully – key positions for immigration and border security.
In a Fox News interview, Homan said deporations would prioritize “public safety and national security threats” as well those who disobeyed court orders to leave the country. For logistical ease, ICE would likely begin with single adults – although Homan defended Trump’s family separation policy and said that families “can be deported together.”
ICE would also likely prioritize immigrants from countries with Temporary Protected Status, because it has reliable biometric data on recipients, making them easier to find. TPS authorizes immigrants to live and work legally in the US when their home country has been deemed unsafe for return. Within TPS recipients, ICE would probably start with countries that accept the most return flights of deportees. However, Venezuela, which has the most people in the program, does not accept deportees. So Trump’s only option would be sending them to a third-party country, which would likely be met with legal battles. The TPS countries accepting the most removal flights are Haiti and Honduras.
Trump faces headwinds. On the logistics side, ICE already has 38,863 people in custody, and it “simply doesn’t have the capacity to handle one million deportations a year right now,” says Daponte-Smith. “If Republicans beef up funding for ICE and other enforcement agencies next year, that would help significantly,” and a united Congress will make this easier for them. But he also doesn’t buy that deploying the military would be much help picking up the slack. “The National Guard has no experience with deportations, and I doubt it would be easy to convert them to that purpose,” he says. Still, declaring a national emergency would also give the president more power to devote funds to the issue without congressional approval.
The other big headwind is political. “Mass deportations will create a huge political blowback, potentially involving large-scale street protests,” says Daponte-Smith. Even if Trump and his team are not responsive to this, it “could be an issue for congressional Republicans” ahead of the 2026 midterms.Displaced Palestinians walk in a tent camp amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on Nov. 9, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Israel expands humanitarian zone, Bitcoin bounces, Italy’s Meloni loses in court, OECD prices remain high, A very late book return
84,653: The price of bitcoin hit a record high of $84,653 on Monday afternoon on hopes that President-elect Donald Trump will offer cryptocurrency-friendly policies. A year ago, bitcoin sold for about $37,000.
7: An immigration court in Italy has rejected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s bid to detain Europe-bound asylum-seekers in Albania. The judge ruled that seven Bangladeshi and Egyptian men brought to Albania by an Italian warship must be taken to Italy and remain there as they await a decision on their asylum application.
30: Though the inflation rate has cooled across wealthy countries, average price levels across the OECD remained about 30% higher in September 2024 than in December 2019, before COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent inflation surging.
51: A book called “The Early Work of Aubrey Beardsley” was returned to a public library in Massachusetts last week. The book was due for return on May 22, 1973, making it 51 years late. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed that China’s government will pay the fine. (Just kidding.) The Worcester Public Library does not charge late fees.Graphic Truth: Foreign-born populations in the US and Canada
The foreign-born populations in the US and Canada have been steadily rising for decades. Both are countries of immigrants, with millions upon millions arriving on their shores from distant lands over the centuries, and this is ingrained into their national identities. But polling shows that in recent years a majority of Americans and Canadians want to see less immigration — including legal immigration.
Politicians have taken notice. President-elect Donald Trump has made curbing immigration a central aspect of his platform and has pledged to conduct mass deportations of undocumented immigrants once he takes office.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also recently took steps to reduce the number of new immigrants coming into Canada. “Immigration is essential for Canada’s future, but it must be controlled and it must be sustainable,” Trudeau said late last month.
Are these trends driven by xenophobia or a product of people feeling financially vulnerable and concerned that more immigrants will place strains on the economy? Or is it both? We would love to hear your thoughts!
Google logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen photographed with a Russian flag in the background for an illustration.
Hard Numbers: Kremlin hits Google with zeroes, Chileans demand tighter borders, Americans suffer election anxiety, Flash flooding wreaks havoc in Spain, Mount Fuji is missing something
20 decillion: The Kremlin hit Google with a fine of $20 decillion on behalf of Russian broadcasters banned by the company’s subsidiary, YouTube. Russia says the $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 — more than a million trillion times larger than the size of the entire global economy but still nearly 70 zeroes smaller than a “googol” – is symbolic. There aren’t enough zeroes in the world to convey how minimal the chances are of Google paying the Kremlin a single cent.
96: How popular is the idea of tighter immigration restrictions in Chile? Some 96% of the country now favors reducing the influx of foreigners, according to a new poll. Chile, a relatively prosperous country that has long had a relatively lax border policy, saw its foreign-born population surge by 25% between 2018 and 2022, driven largely by the mass exodus from Venezuela. A backlash against migrants, partly shaped by the 2021 presidential election, has continued to grow.
70: Roughly 70% of Americans are feeling anxious or frustrated about the election, according to a new AP/NORC poll. If you are one of the afflicted, find someone among the 36% who report feeling “excited” about the upcoming vote. Who are these people?
158: At least 158 people have been killed by devastating flash floods in Spain's Valencia region, as rescuers continue to search for survivors. The fatal flooding, the worst such disaster for the country in a century, wreaked havoc — sweeping away entire homes and leaving cars piled in the streets.
130: Japan’s Mount Fuji is missing something right now: snow. The peak’s iconic snowcap usually begins forming in October, and never in 130 years of records has it gone without one this late in the month. The summer of 2024 was tied with 2023 for Japan’s hottest ever.Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a meeting of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce in Calgary, Alberta, Canada December 21, 2016.
Canada cuts immigration rates – for now
Justin Trudeau’s government announced Thursday that it is cutting the number of immigrants Canada will take in, at least temporarily.
After years of higher permanent resident targets – the country aimed for between 410,000 and 505,000 newcomers last year alone – the government’s new goal is 395,000 next year, followed by 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
The prime minister said the temporary pause is designed to let the country’s economy “catch up” with population growth. In recent months, the government has been criticized for its immigration plan as Canadians worried about the effects of a greater number of newcomers on housing costs, health care, and jobs.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre called Trudeau’s “flip-flop” on immigration “a massive admission of failure.” Poilievre’s party currently leads the governing Liberals in the polls by roughly 20 points as the incumbents struggle to turn public opinion around.
Immigration ranks among the top 5 issues Canadians are concerned about ahead of the next federal election, which is due by the fall of 2025.
Turkish citizens disembark naval ship TCG Bayraktar carrying people evacuated from Lebanon upon their arrival at a port in Turkey's Mediterranean coastal province of Mersin, Turkey, October 10, 2024.
Hard Numbers: A quarter of Lebanon under Israeli evacuation orders, Milton costs insurers big, The EU wants its money back, Early voting in Georgia breaks records
25: Over 25% of Lebanon is facing Israeli evacuation orders, which were expanded to include 20 villages on Tuesday. The sprawling evacuation orders come as Israel expands its bombing campaign in the south and east of Lebanon, and in the suburbs of Beirut. Over the past three weeks, 1.2 million people have already fled from their homes, with more than 400,000 children in Lebanon displaced, according to the UN children’s agency.
36 billion: After Hurricane Milton tore through central Florida last week, risk modelers predicted that it would lead to about $36 billion in insurance payouts, well above the $6 billion of claims they estimate Hurricane Helene caused last month. The cost of increasingly damaging storms has experts fearing that more insurance firms will exit the region, further driving up premiums.
163 million: It is looking certain that the EU will be unable to claw back any of the $163 million it paid to Tunisia in a controversial migration deal. Brussels paid Tunis to crack down on migrants leaving its shores bound for Europe, but the money is being increasingly linked to human rights violations – including allegations that sums went to security forces who raped migrant women.
305,900: On Tuesday, the first day of early voting in Georgia, the southern US state saw record turnout, with 305,900 votes. That’s more than twice the number of first-day early voters in 2020, when the state’s previous record was set with 136,000 votes cast on the first day.
Canada's Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Marc Miller takes part in a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 18, 2024.
Canada's immigration dilemma: growth vs. public pressure
Another polling company, Environics, has been tracking the issue since 1977 and found that in 2023 only 51% of Canadians disagreed with the statement that Canada accepts too many immigrants, down from 69% in 2022, the largest one-year change ever recorded.
The shift in public opinion follows a decision by the federal Liberal government to allow hundreds of thousands of low-wage temporary workers and international students into the country after the pandemic to address perceived labor shortages.
The number of newcomers doubled from 1.35 million in early 2022, or 3.5% of the population, to three million, or 7% by last July. This has added to pressures on housing costs and led to demands for the government to tighten the rules.
The Liberals have promised to reduce the numbers to 5% of the population over the next three years, but critics charge that the government will simply transfer newcomers from the temporary to the permanent resident category at the cost of Canada’s tradition of attracting highly skilled immigrants. A policy proposal that the government has yet to rubber-stamp calls for temporary residents to be granted permanent residency as part of a new stream of low-skilled, less well-educated immigrants.
But it is apparent the real price has already been paid: the bipartisan support that mass immigration has had for decades.
A statue of McGill University founder James McGill is seen on the campus in Montreal, October 2, 2009.
Trouble on the northern border
Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Millerwarned Canada on Sunday of an “alarming trend.” Foreign students are making asylum claims – the latest issue to confront his government as it struggles to get the immigration system under control.
In recent years, Canadian universities and colleges have increasingly relied on foreign students, who pay higher tuition than Canadians, to deal with funding shortfalls. But the wave of students – more than a million were admitted in 2023 – is being blamed for everything from a shortage of rental accommodations to security fears. A Pakistani national arrested as he was allegedly en route to New York to conduct a mass shooting at a Jewish centre came to Canada on a student visa.
Miller has twice decreased the number of visas available to foreign students, but more than 70,000 already in Canada are now facing deportation when their visas expire. In the next three years, 396,235 foreign student work permits will expire. If Canada gets tougher on students and other temporary foreign residents, a think tank warns that some could try their luck in the United States, increasing tension on the border.
The Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Center for North American Prosperity and Security wrote in the Wall Street Journal that a surge of migrants is already starting to enter the United States, crossing into New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont. There were 180,000 interactions with U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents on the northern border between January and August, up from 27,180 in all of 2021.
The Canadian side may want to redouble its efforts to get a handle on the problem. Polling shows immigration is one of Donald Trump’s strongest issues, so any influx along the normally quiet northern border could give him a boost in the swing states where he and Kamala Harris are locked in a razor-close race.
And Canadians may want to avoid that. A report released Thursday from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that Trump’s tariffs would cost the Canadian economy US$60 billion over the first three years.