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US-Canada trade war helps Mark Carney's election prospects

With recent tensions between Zelensky and Washington, how likely are the Saudi-hosted peace talks to yield real progress?

Well, we'll find out real soon. Zelensky has certainly made his efforts to make nice on the critical minerals deal, on apologizing to the Trump White House for a meeting that frankly he has very little to apologize for, and that certainly has helped with getting this engagement going. Also, he's not attending personally, rather, his key envoys and advisors meeting with Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz. I suspect that the meetings will end up being just fine, but they are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire because what the Ukrainians are prepared to accept, the Russians are not close to accepting. So either Trump is going to have to be willing to take some time, bring it to the Russians and see that the Russians are not playing full ball, or he's going to have to throw the Ukrainians under the bus more and make greater demands that they're not prepared to accept. I don't think either of those things are likely to happen today, but that's I think, the direction of travel.

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Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?

I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.

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Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?

His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.

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Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?

It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.

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DeepSeek puts US-China relations on edge

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How is China's AI app DeepSeek disrupting the AI industry?

It certainly seems to be making people concerned that the Chinese are a lot closer to the Americans and the Trump administration is not sleeping on this. They clearly feel that China is technologically very capable, very advanced. Frankly, different than Biden felt when he first became president, though he got up to speed on that pretty quickly. And I think that's going to lead to a much tougher competition between the United States and China. Those that think that a deal is coming, that Trump is going to engage with China because he wants to find a way to not have to put tariffs on, I don't think that's going to happen because you're going to have so much more efforts to contain the Chinese in all sorts of areas of advanced technology broadly speaking.

They are way ahead in data. The Americans are ahead in compute, and they're both going to lean into the opportunities that they have. And the Americans are going to use their firepower from a government perspective with other countries around the world as well. That's what I think.

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EU rolls back Syria sanctions for economic rebound

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?

Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.

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Why NATO launches a Baltic Sea operation

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.

Why has NATO launched a new operation in the Baltic Sea?

Well the reason is to have better safety and security for the undersea infrastructure of different cables that we have in the Baltic Sea. There have been a number of incidents in the last few months when these cables have been damaged or cut by ships that have passed by dragging their anchors. They've often been associated with the part of what you call the 'shadow fleet' of earlier old rusty tankers transporting oil from Russia in violation of sanctions. So, the NATO operation is supposed to keep that under watch, prevent it, and secure the undersea infrastructure.

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Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?

We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.

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