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What Sinwar's death means for the war in Gaza
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
BRICS Summit: A "new world order" or already a relic of the past?
Neither. It's in Kazan in Russia. So, I mean, the big issue is that the fact that Putin is hosting it hasn't stopped people from showing up, and that says a lot about the state of the non-West. If you're not in the G7, you're still finding ways to work with the Russians, and that's not going to change anytime soon. But it is not an alternative to the G7. It's a large grouping, and they have different political, different economic systems. They want to work with everybody. So we're not heading towards a new Cold War, at least not in terms of the big global architecture.
Is Sinwar's death the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza?
I think it is in terms of Israel's military fighting, because they've killed the leadership, they've blown up the tunnels, they've found the arms caches. I mean, there's not much else for them to do. But I mean, the war from the Palestinian perspective is just beginning. They are utterly devastated. They have no ability to have a future for themselves or their kids, and they are going to be fighting for generations. So right now, it doesn't matter much to Israel because they're massively asymmetrically powerful from a military perspective, but long-term this is not something that we're going to be able to forget about.
Yankees versus Shohei Ohtani, I mean Dodgers. Who's winning?
Well, I mean, that is funny of course, because here in Japan everyone has Ohtani fever. You cannot avoid it everywhere you walk. It is pretty exciting. They are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series, and I think it's going to be a fascinating week and a half or whatever it is. And I wish... I mean, I tend to root for the Red Sox, which means not rooting for the Yankees. That means I kind of want the Dodgers to win. But at the end of the day, I love sports because a minute after the game is over, I am no longer super excited. And I wish that could be the way that politics work.
Anyway, be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Canada's fight with India over Sikh assassination heats up again
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is the role of the United Nations in the Israel-Gaza war?
Well, it's actually quite a few roles. One, the General Assembly and the Security Council are principle places where you get to see how the various countries around the world respond to the war, what their political positioning is, so the comparative isolation of the United States on the Security Council, for example, what countries do, don't stand with Israel, the Palestinians of the 194 member states around the world? Secondly, the UN is the principal organization that delivers humanitarian aid on the ground in Gaza, staffed overwhelmingly by Palestinians, thousands of them. That's been controversial because a number, something like seven or eight, have been found to have been involved in the support for the attacks on October 7th, the terrorist attacks. And then, finally, you have UN peacekeepers, thousands of them, on the ground in southern Lebanon, with many countries around the world participating. That's the Security Council that's responsible for that but has not been particularly effective at ensuring that the Security Council resolutions, creating a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back, and not allowing them to strike Israel, have actually been implemented. So lots of places that they have a role, you learn a lot about the world as a consequence, but it's not like they have a lot of power or a lot of money.
Why did Canada expel Indian diplomats?
Well, it's a fight that's been going on for over a year now with the assassination of this Sikh terrorist that India was found to be behind on sovereign Canadian territory. There had been a conversation between Modi and Trudeau on the sidelines of recent G20 Summit. It looked like facilitated by the United States, that that relationship was improving. It has fallen apart again. One of the things, I mean, there's more information that's come out in Canada about what India's role has been interfering with Canadian politics and citizens, but also the fact that Trudeau is in really tough shape domestically. He's thinking that a fight with India right now may help him in terms of popularity. I don't think it's going to work, but that certainly is not irrelevant.
How important is Elon Musk in the US election?
I don't think he's very important to the outcome. Obviously, Twitter/X is significantly oriented towards the right in terms of both Elon and what's being algorithmically promoted, but it's a lot smaller for US citizens than TikTok, which is younger and is more focused to the extent there's a political slant on the left. So if you ask me, which is going to matter more? I suspect TikTok will bring out more voters than Twitter/X, will. I think you on, is important in the election because he has personally done so much to promote disinformation, and it's making it harder for the average American to know what they can trust, what's a trusted source of media, what's a trusted source of information, what they should believe around vaccines, around FEMA response to a hurricane, around whether or not the election is free and fair. And I'm worried deeply that there's much greater likelihood of violence in the United States on the back of his personal decision of how to run Twitter/X than there would've been otherwise. We'll be focused on this very closely.
Why Trump-Putin calls are cause for concern
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As another hurricane hits Florida, how is information complicating disaster relief efforts?
Well, the heads of FEMA are saying this is by far the worst misinformation environment they've ever seen around a natural disaster, and it makes life a lot more difficult. First of all, it means a lot of people that need help aren't getting help, a lot of people that need to evacuate aren't evacuating, and it undermines the morale of the people that are working to try to help respond to the hurricane. So, for all of these reasons, when you have people saying that the money isn't actually being sent or it's being displaced, or that there are blockades, all of these things, if there's ever a time that you need scientists and authorities to be believed and listened to, it's in a national emergency. We saw these problems with the pandemic working with a lot of uncertainty, and you now see this working with a hurricane, working with a lot of certainty. So, even in an environment that should be depoliticized should be very straightforward that everyone comes together, it doesn't matter if you're red or blue. If you're getting hit by a hurricane, you need the same information. You need the same services that's being undermined by a disinformation environment. My God, am I worried about that in the aftermath of the US election in November. People should not sleep on how challenging it's going to be to get through that.
What do Southeast Asian leaders hope to accomplish at the ASEAN regional summit?
Well, the big thing they hope to accomplish, and this is not an organization like the EU or NATO; it's a pretty disparate group of countries that have very different political and economic systems and values and preferences; not a lot of common authority, but certainly, they all want to see an end to the civil war that has been expanding in Myanmar. And so the top issue is can they collectively push for diplomatic engagement between the two sides that have not been willing to talk to each other? Certainly, that is Secretary of State Tony Blinken's hope and effort in his attendance right now. We'll see if it goes anywhere, but it's increasingly disruptive for economics, for infrastructure, supply chain across the region, and right now, it is getting worse.
What do you make of reports that Trump stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office?
We heard from Bob Woodward, this new book coming out, some seven direct conversations, phone calls that Trump had with Putin since leaving the presidency, which does surprise me a little, honestly. We know that Zelensky really wanted to have one conversation with Trump a few weeks ago during the United Nations meetings on the sidelines, and it looked like that wasn't going to happen, and then finally it did. Certainly, for those that are concerned that Trump and Putin are continuing engagement and that means that Zelensky might be thrown under the bus, there's more reason to be concerned about that given those ongoing conversations. Certainly, you'd want to know what they're about. Trump does want an end to the war. Frankly, most of the world is aligned with him and wanting an end to the war, and I think it's useful to be able to talk with Putin directly. Frankly, I think that people like Biden and Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO secretary general should be talking to Putin even though there is a war going on that they're on opposite sides of, because it would help potentially long-term reduce tensions and lead to a greater potential of a negotiated settlement. But that's very different from a bunch of conversations that had not been discussed and that aren't necessarily trusted.
Europe's biggest concerns about Middle East, one year after Oct. 7
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel? What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Lisbon, Portugal.
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel?
Well, I think deep apprehension is the best way of summing it up. Fears that we will see a further escalation of the conflict. Could be further problems in Gaza, could be further problems in West Bank. But perhaps particular now the situation of Lebanon, where there's the risk that we will see a further meltdown by the way of Lebanon. And we already have a million people on the move inside Lebanon. We have perhaps 100,000 people who are trying to flee from Lebanon into Syria. Mind you, there was a million and a half fleeing from Syria into Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the fear that we will see any refugee flow coming out of that area into Europe with all of the problems that would entail. So, deep apprehension on that situation.
What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv?
I think it was important for Mark Rutte to go to Kiev as the first thing he did really as the new Secretary General of NATO in order to make very clear his personal commitment to Ukraine, and the fact that he would put that at the top of his list of priorities, much in the same way as outgoing Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has done during the last few years. So, that was an important signal in itself.
Putin's nuclear policy revision is a sign of weakness
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland.
What are the implications of the revisions to the nuclear doctrine that President Putin of Russia announced last week?
We don't really know, but I would rather see it as a sign of weakness. If President Putin had confidence in the ability of his conventional forces to achieve the aims that he has set for them in his aggression against Ukraine, he wouldn't need to do this. Does it mean that he's intending to use nuclear weapons? Not necessarily. But he wants to remind us of the fact that it's in his arsenal, and I think we know that already.
What are the implications of the victory of the far-right forces in the Austrian elections?
Well, it is quite worrying, I have to say. The far-right Freedom Party is really far-right and really pro-Russian. They got 29% of the vote, a record for them. And whether they will be able to form a government, I think the other parties will try to form a government against them. I think it's going to take a couple of months to see whether that succeeds or not. But the worrying thing is, of course, that there's a risk of the formation of a far-right, nationalist, more neutralistic, you could say, bloc in Central Europe. We already have the Hungarians under Viktor Orbán nearby. We have Bratislava with the government there. There's an election coming up in the Czech Republic next year. So I'm not entirely comfortable, to put it mildly, with what we have seen coming out of the Austrian election.
Japan’s new PM: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will there be political fallout in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene?
Lots of fallout for the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Carolinas and elsewhere, but the biggest damage is in both rural areas that largely vote "red" and urban areas that largely vote "blue." And frankly, that's a wash. Horrible morbid pun there, but the reality, I don't think it's going to be much impact come November.
What were the big takeaways from President Xi's speech celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China?
Well, first of all, very interesting. He didn't mention trade war, didn't mention the United States or other potential adversaries on the economic, technological military front by name. Did mention Taiwan, talked about the need to end the separatists and reunify, but nothing new there compared to other statements that he and other leaders have made. I would say the most important thing he talked about are the expectations of serious challenges going forward for the Chinese people. This is coming from a leader who is starting to move towards stimulus as opposed to just sort of incremental responses to economic challenges. A recognition that if they want to hit anywhere close to the 5% plus growth they want, they're going to need to do a lot from the fiscal side as the government. But he's messaging that this is going to be a hard time and it's structural. It's not a matter of a few months, it's a matter of years. And especially with the politics around the world and in the United States not working so well for China right now, that's a message that I think was more for domestic consumption than for international.
Finally, as Japan's new Prime Minister assembles his government, how will he set himself apart from former PM, Kishida?
Well, he's not a "pro-Abenomics" guy. This is someone that I think is going to be challenging from a market perspective. He's going to be fiscally very cautious. He's going to look to raise more revenue, and he's not really loved by the business community. It was the fifth time he tried to become Prime Minister, the former Minister of Defense. Fifth time's the charm apparently in the LDP. I'm not so concerned about potential changes on the international front. He's talked about an "Asian NATO" which is kind of a non-starter from the perspective of the United States. He does want joint control of bases in Okinawa,. That's changed the status quo. But ultimately, if the US pushes back, he'll accept that. The interesting thing about Japan is it's basically a single-party democracy. The Liberal Democratic Party really runs the show. They have an absolute majority in the Diet. They're likely to continue that after snap elections coming up real soon. And so it's really a question of which of the various factions inside that party who largely agree on worldview and on domestic policies ends up running the government. And this time around it is the former Minister of Defense.
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Can Zelensky's 'victory plan' bring peace to Ukraine?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
First question, is Zelensky's finalized 'victory plan' realistic to bring peace to Ukraine?
Well, the peace plan that he's talking about is a proposal that he's going to present to President Biden at the meeting in UN in the next few days. They are there for the UN General Assembly, and it consists essentially of beefing up Ukraine's military capabilities with the possibility to use more long-range weapons and other things in order to substantially increase the military difficulties that Russia already having. Thus, possibly, hopefully, making it certain, making it clear to the Kremlin that there's no way to victory and that they have to sit down and agree to something that is acceptable and that can be called peace of some sort. Will this work? Remains to be seen, to put it in the mildest possible way.
Second question, why is there backlash against EU's anti-deforestation law?
Well, it's not unique for that particular one. I mean, all of the legislation for the so-called Green Deal that was decided due to the last five years, a lot of it is fairly complicated and has significant burdens on industry in order to reporting requirements and all of those. That includes the deforestation law. So there is a push to say, "Well, well it's all good. But let's delay it somewhat so that business has the possibility of catching up with all of the requirements." You will see that debate about several aspects of the Green Deal. It doesn't endanger the deal itself, but it perhaps streamlines and perhaps delays it somewhat.
Trump-Harris debate: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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