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Is an EU-China trade war brewing?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Vienna, Austria
Is there a risk of a full-scale trade war between the European Union and China?
Hopefully not. But it was a decision, somewhat controversial, the other day by the EU to impose tariffs, not too high but still substantial, on electric vehicles coming from China. The US, of course, has done something similar but much higher tariffs and without much of a theoretical justification. I mean, the EU tried to ground its different decisions in analysis of the subsidies generated or given to the different Chinese car manufacturers. China will retaliate in one way or the other. But talks are going on and there's no interest in a trade war either from the EU side or from the Chinese side. And we should not forget, by the way, that for the moment, there are 100 times more cars sold by European companies in China than Chinese vehicles or cars exported to Europe.
Why is the deal between Italy and Albania on refugee centers so controversial?
Well it's been criticized by human rights groups, whether that is justified or not, it's difficult for me to judge. But the idea is for roughly 3,000 asylum seekers to Italy to be roughly 3,000 of them every month to be processed in two centers in Italy that are going to be run by and financed by Italy. We'll see how this would work out. They would be coming from primarily what they call "safe countries," and that means that the expectation is, of course, that the majority of them, or the vast majority of them, will have to be repatriated to their respective countries. It's part of the effort by X numbers of European governments to deal with the migration issue that is in very many of the countries the number one domestic policy concern at the moment.
Why Canadians are tired of Justin Trudeau
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is Mexico's judiciary overhaul controversial?
Main reason is it means the judiciary is going to be less independent and much more politicized. They're going to be elected, these judges. They're going to have shorter terms. They're going to be aligned with whoever happens to be in political power. That is the intention. That's why AMLO, outgoing president, wanted this judiciary reform to get done and not be changed. But not only does that undermine rule of law and means that his preferences, his party's preferences will likely also be that of the judiciary. But also, especially in a country where there are very, very strong gangs associated with drugs, any place where they have strong governance, they'll be able to also ensure that the judges are the ones that they want, and that is a horrible development for rule of law in a country whose democratic institutions frankly aren't very consolidated. So, it's a problem and it's going to hurt the Mexican economy, hurt the investment climate.
After losing another parliamentary seat, is Justin Trudeau's time as Canada's leader coming to an end?
Certainly. Sometimes you stay a little longer than your performance merits. This is certainly the case for Trudeau. The people are tired of him. They don't feel the country's heading in the right direction. Major problems in terms of inflation, especially real estate, housing costs, lack of availability of housing, and just people wanting something different. We've seen that all over the world with elections over the last year. We're going to see it in Canada in the coming months.
2.5 years in, and 1 million now dead or injured. Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine any closer to resolution?
I'd say it's closer to resolution insofar as the Ukrainians increasingly know that it's getting harder for them to field troops, to fight, to defend their territory. That's why the risk, the risky attack inside Russian territory, which they probably can't hold, but certainly has meant that they're going to lose more territory in Ukraine. Also, certainly you talk to NATO leaders, they understand that the time for negotiations, the time for trying to wrap up the war and freeze the conflict, a ceasefire, at least, if not a negotiated settlement is soon. So, I'd be surprised if the war is still going with the level of intensity in a year as it is right now, but the Ukrainians are not going to get their land back. And what that means and what kind of guarantees they get from the West, including security guarantees potentially, certainly Ukraine very hopeful for an actual formal NATO invitation, which they don't have at this point. That is the state of negotiations happening between the Ukrainians and others.
Ukraine frustrated by delay on long-range weapons
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv, Ukraine.
What's the reaction on the discussions ongoing considering the possibility of Ukrainians to use long-range strike weapons?
Well, a lot of dissatisfaction here in Kyiv. There was the visit by Secretary Blinken and Foreign Secretary Lammy here. There were discussions between President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer in Washington, but no decision. And the Ukrainians really want to be able to strike back at the air bases from which the Russians are launching attacks, trying to completely demolish the Ukrainian energy system. I understand discussions will continue and it will have an impact on the mood here and possibly the conduct of the war.
What's the reaction to Germany's decision to partly at least reimpose on their border controls?
The reaction has been rather negative to put it mildly, as an understanding for the domestic political circumstances leading to the decision by the German government. But here's to take one example, Polish Prime Minister Tusk was scheduled to go to Berlin on a working visit. He canceled that in order to make it clear to the Germans that reimposing controls on the German-Polish border he considered to be contrary to the spirit of cooperation. So expect more on that particular story.
Ukraine's capture of POWs undermines Russia's narrative
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How might Ukraine's capture of Russian prisoners of war affect the narrative of the war?
I don't think it's going to have any immediate effect on the narrative of the war. The big shift in the narrative is, of course, that while the Russian Putin has been saying that Ukraine is about to lose this particular war week by week, day by day, village by village, that's been turned around and very much the outcome of the war is now more open, where Ukraine has demonstrated a substantial offensive capability as well. That's the change.
How do the lithium protests in Serbia reflect the wider tensions in the country?
Well, they certainly do. I mean, first it has to be said with large-scale mining project, there are always environmental concerns and there have been other mining projects in Serbia, Chinese with the Bor copper mine, where that has not been the case. So there are concerns. That being said, the protests are also fueled by the fact that there is substantial democracy and transparency deficit in Serbia. So under other circumstances, this would've been a more normal environmental concern protest. Now it's a much wider issue, reflecting tensions in Serbia's society.
What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has chosen her running mate: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota.
Walz is a moderate to center-left Democrat who has presided over a trifecta in Minnesota, meaning the Democrats have controlled the state legislature for several years now. They have passed several “wins” for progressive policy, liberalizing the state's marijuana laws, expanding gun control, and expanding access to abortion. This has made Walz a popular choice with many progressives. He’s also been endorsed by several labor unions as a good pick for Kamala Harris. In reality, though, he probably doesn’t make that much of a difference in the presidential campaign.
Harris herself is running as, sort of, a generic Democrat. She’s been avoiding media interviews, running a lot of campaign ads, and giving a lot of set speeches where she can basically read off a teleprompter and carefully curate the image that she’s putting forward to the American people as the candidate in what’s actually going to be a truncated campaign of only about 100 days.
Walz probably helps her with that. He looks like a pretty nice guy. He delivers a lot of great attack lines on President Donald Trump that have Democrats excited, but the evidence suggests that vice presidential picks really don't make all that much of difference in presidential campaigns. Usually, it’s the person at the top of the ticket, and that person is Harris. She continues to benefit from a couple of great weeks after Biden stepped aside from the nomination, and this race is starting to look significantly more competitive than it did right after the disastrous debate for Biden.
A couple of interesting watch points coming up: One will be a potential debate between Walz and the significantly younger Republican VP candidate, Sen. JD Vance, and then whether or not Harris and Trump themselves will debate. Probably, Trump wants the debate to happen so that he can disrupt Harris’ momentum.
- Kamala Harris narrows the enthusiasm gap. But will it last? ›
- Will market turmoil melt Kamala Harris’s momentum? ›
- Kamala Harris on foreign policy ›
- Who will Harris pick as her VP running mate? ›
- Harris, Trump and the hypocrisy in US politics - GZERO Media ›
- Debate Bingo, VP edition: Tim Walz v. JD Vance - GZERO Media ›
Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60, live from the Toronto US-Canada Summit.
What are the implications of Hunter Biden's convictions for his father's presidential campaign?
You know, it's a little bit of tit for tat. You're going to see a lot of Republicans saying, “See the Biden crime family! Look at this guy. I mean, he's a convict.” It's ugly. It's embarrassing for the Biden family, of course. But at the same time, it's not very significant charges and it certainly doesn't link directly to President Biden. Five months away, are people going to be talking about this or Trump's 34 convictions, the weakest of the cases that he's actually facing? I suspect neither of them are going to matter very much, even though, on balance, Trump's is the one that should matter more.
Will recent EU elections bring a dramatic shift to Europe or more of the same?
Well, overall, the European Parliament looks a lot like the old European Parliament. A few more seats for the right wing, but the far-right is not very aligned, doesn't work cohesively. I still think Ursula von der Leyen is going to be, yet again, European Commission president. And in many countries the populist, the anti-establishment did a lot worse. In Sweden, for example, in Portugal and others. On balance, there's not much change here. Two things that matter one a little bit is that Schulz and his Social Democrats really underperformed. The German economy not doing well, he's not seen as much of a leader. A three-party coalition, Germany, largely centrist and pretty stable no matter what. Much bigger: France. Macron's party, historically, got pasted. That's why he's called for parliamentary elections in just a few weeks. And when they happen, if Le Pen's party, the National Rally, wins and they're able to put forward a prime minister, there's is a major, major problem for governance in France and for the need of anything that the EU has to have parliamentary approval in France to get done, and that includes the Ukraine problem going forward.
How Canadians viewing the impending Biden Trump rematch?
You know, in some ways a little more comfortably than they did the last time around because the US-Mexico-Canada agreement's already in place and Trump got it done with this Canadian government. So, I think that they feel a little like, “Hey, we dealt with them once, we can deal with them again.” There's much more strategy and strategic alignment in the importance of the US-Canada relationship today than there was five, 10 years ago, in part because on China they're much more aligned, on things like, major wars outside of this part of the world, they're much more aligned, on Haiti, they're much more aligned. But also keep in mind that Canada's also facing an election in a year. And right now, it looks like the Tories, the conservatives in Canada, would win big, ahead by over 20 points. In which case you'd have a Canadian government and a US government, if Trump were to win, that would be very aligned. Just on a very different part of the political spectrum. Either way, very friendly and very stable relationship, which is more than we can say for most of them around the world.
Learnings from working post-COVID: economy, work-life, leadership
Kevin Sneader, Global Managing Partner at McKinsey, shares his perspective on corporate business leadership on Business In 60 Seconds:
What do we know now that we did not know four months ago when the coronavirus struck with vengeance?
I think there's a lot. First, we've learned about our economy. We know that we've now taken the elevator down and we're taking the stairs back up. We're seeing a return, as I observe what's happening across the world, but from a very low base. And the letter of choice is not an L, a V or a U, but I think it's a big question mark.
Secondly, we've learned about what we like in the workplace and what we do not. Indeed, much that has proven attractive about remote working has stuck. Time with family. The ability to source expertise wherever it may be located. But there's much that's not. After all, as many have said to me, there's a fine line between sleeping at the office and working from home.
Third, we've learned about leadership. As one CEO suggested, all the traditional stuff does matter. Being a good listener. Being aware of the details, able to see the big picture. But perhaps the most valuable capability is one that's not often associated with CEOs, it's being able to show some love, to show some love. We've learned that first and foremost, this is a humanitarian crisis and one where empathy and understanding have really proven to be the leadership qualities that matter.
Historic EU COVID recovery fund deal; Turkey and Greece Aegean dispute
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
How will the EU coronavirus recovery fund work and are there winners and losers?
How it's going to work? Hundreds of billions of euros being distributed between, its collective redistribution from wealthy countries to poor countries. And that money has been now unanimous agreement between all 27 members of the European Union. Not 28, the Brits are no longer a part of the table. And it's historic. It's by far the biggest political success that we've seen anywhere around the world in providing real multilateral leadership to help make it easier for those countries that are suffering the most. In the case of Europe, that means the poorer countries that don't have the ability to bail out their devastated economies. Again, you are seeing double digit contractions across Europe economically this year. Now you're seeing hundreds of billions of euros, half of that will be grants, don't need to pay back, half will be loans. That was a big part of the of the debate, of the controversy.
And who's it going to go to? It's going to go to the southern Europeans, like Italy, like Spain. It's going to go to the Eastern Europeans. And part of that, that's where you have some of the problems that some of those East Europeans do not actually support. All of the mandated rule of law, independent judiciary that you're supposed to, to be a part of the EU, the EU has not been able to sanction them. Countries like Hungary and Poland precisely because you need unanimity to do so and it's hard to get unanimity. Some of the wealthier countries are saying, "well, we're not going to give that money unless we can ensure that everybody that gets it actually is aligned politically." Well, that didn't work. So, countries like Poland and Hungary will continue to have their political systems diverge from those of the west and the north. That's bad for Europe long term, but for the short term, Euroscepticism is actually on the decline, not on the rise, because even if you're a Eurosceptic in a country like Italy or Greece or Hungary, if they're saying they're going to give you money to help bail you out, mutualized debt, something that no one thought could have happened before the pandemic, you're reasonably happy with that. I mean, you know, you're not going to give up free money. That's how I like Ayn Rand Institute accepting cash from the US government. You know, I mean, you read "Atlas Shrugged." I mean, I suppose, though, it was horrible, but that doesn't mean you won't take free money from the government. That's just your ideology. Who cares about that?
What is going on with Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea?
Well, the Turkish government is now sending a bunch of military vessels, looks like towards this Greek economic exclusion zone, which is where the Greeks are saying they have the right to exploit resources in the Aegean Sea. The Turks are contesting that. It's kind of like the dispute you've seen in the South China Sea, where the international community clearly supports one set of norms in the fishing and mineral rights that are off of countries borders. But the more powerful country militarily in the region, China, is trying to subvert that. That is what we are potentially now seeing with Turkey and the Greeks. With the Turks saying they have the right to exploit and providing licenses for doing so and suddenly a bunch of military ships showing up. Very interesting because Greece and Turkey are both NATO allies. The Americans are supporting the Greeks, as the international community broadly does here, in terms of their definition of what their territoriality actually implies, where it expands to. But that doesn't mean the Turks are going to listen. And the fact there's been a bit of a bromance between President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan complicates this. So, we should watch this very closely. Big win for the Greeks in terms of the EU deal, potentially big problems in terms of the fight with Turkey.
Finally, is Russian influence in UK politics really the "new normal?"
I'm going to say no. I think people continue to exaggerate what the Russians are actually able to accomplish. It is true that they provided lots of disinformation and certainly weren't saying, they weren't open about it, they weren't saying "this is coming from Russia." It wasn't state propaganda. It was pretending to be local actors with the Brexit referendum, with the Scottish independence referendum, and of course, in the United States with the US elections. But the amount of money is relatively limited. And the outcomes, I would argue, are much more divisive because of problems in these countries themselves. The Russians tried to have that same kind of impact on the German elections and it failed. Why did it fail? Because the German people were generally happier with their social contract, generally weren't prepared to listen to crazy extremist conspiracy theories. In the US, in the UK, where lots of people increasingly feel like their own systems are delegitimized and rigged, they're more willing to listen to wackos. And so, they're more susceptible to delegitimization efforts, whether they're domestic or international. So, if you really want to fix this, I mean, yes, the US needs to respond and show that if the Russians hit us on cyber, we're going to hit them on cyber. That tit for tat is completely understandable and appropriate. But you're not going to fix the problem until you actually build your own resilience at home and that's what we need to be doing. Certainly true for the UK.