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Canada's fight with India over Sikh assassination heats up again
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is the role of the United Nations in the Israel-Gaza war?
Well, it's actually quite a few roles. One, the General Assembly and the Security Council are principle places where you get to see how the various countries around the world respond to the war, what their political positioning is, so the comparative isolation of the United States on the Security Council, for example, what countries do, don't stand with Israel, the Palestinians of the 194 member states around the world? Secondly, the UN is the principal organization that delivers humanitarian aid on the ground in Gaza, staffed overwhelmingly by Palestinians, thousands of them. That's been controversial because a number, something like seven or eight, have been found to have been involved in the support for the attacks on October 7th, the terrorist attacks. And then, finally, you have UN peacekeepers, thousands of them, on the ground in southern Lebanon, with many countries around the world participating. That's the Security Council that's responsible for that but has not been particularly effective at ensuring that the Security Council resolutions, creating a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back, and not allowing them to strike Israel, have actually been implemented. So lots of places that they have a role, you learn a lot about the world as a consequence, but it's not like they have a lot of power or a lot of money.
Why did Canada expel Indian diplomats?
Well, it's a fight that's been going on for over a year now with the assassination of this Sikh terrorist that India was found to be behind on sovereign Canadian territory. There had been a conversation between Modi and Trudeau on the sidelines of recent G20 Summit. It looked like facilitated by the United States, that that relationship was improving. It has fallen apart again. One of the things, I mean, there's more information that's come out in Canada about what India's role has been interfering with Canadian politics and citizens, but also the fact that Trudeau is in really tough shape domestically. He's thinking that a fight with India right now may help him in terms of popularity. I don't think it's going to work, but that certainly is not irrelevant.
How important is Elon Musk in the US election?
I don't think he's very important to the outcome. Obviously, Twitter/X is significantly oriented towards the right in terms of both Elon and what's being algorithmically promoted, but it's a lot smaller for US citizens than TikTok, which is younger and is more focused to the extent there's a political slant on the left. So if you ask me, which is going to matter more? I suspect TikTok will bring out more voters than Twitter/X, will. I think you on, is important in the election because he has personally done so much to promote disinformation, and it's making it harder for the average American to know what they can trust, what's a trusted source of media, what's a trusted source of information, what they should believe around vaccines, around FEMA response to a hurricane, around whether or not the election is free and fair. And I'm worried deeply that there's much greater likelihood of violence in the United States on the back of his personal decision of how to run Twitter/X than there would've been otherwise. We'll be focused on this very closely.
Activists from the United Hindu Front shout slogans during a protest against Canadian PM Justin Trudeau in New Delhi, India
India fires fresh salvos in dispute with Canada
This week, India ordered Canada to repatriate dozens of diplomats by Oct. 10 or face its withdrawal of diplomatic immunity, and 41 of 62 Canadian diplomats in India were reportedly set to be expelled.
Ottawa would not confirm the news but did not contradict the report. “Obviously, we are going through an extremely challenging time with India right now, but that’s why it is so important for us to have diplomats on the ground working with the Indian government and there to support Canadians and Canadian families,” PM Justin Trudeau said.
The expulsions signal that India does not intend to back down in its dispute with Canada, which blew up last month when Trudeau said in Parliament that the Canadian government believed India was responsible for gunning down Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen whom India had labeled a terrorist.
PM Narendra Modi reacted angrily, condemning Canada for failing to crack down on Canadian Sikhs who desire an independent Khalistan. Indians have responded with overwhelming support for his nationalist message, attacking Canadian websites and falsely portraying Trudeau as a coke fiend.
Modi — who faces a national election next year — has shown no interest in lowering the temperature in this dispute. Canada has had to turn to the United States for support, hoping Uncle Sam can help smooth over tensions and get the relationship back on track.
The Americans reportedly provided intelligence to Canada to help in its investigation, and last week US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the Americans take the issue seriously. “There's not some special exemption you get for actions like this,” he said. “Regardless of the country, we will stand up and defend our basic principles and we will also consult closely with allies like Canada as they pursue their law enforcement and diplomatic process.”
Politico reported this week that the US Ambassador in New Delhi has warned his diplomats that they should expect to reduce their contacts with Indian officials while the dispute is active.
But Modi looks determined not to pay heed to Canadian complaints. He has the Indian public behind him, and he knows the Americans are unwilling to alienate a key Asian ally as they seek to show a common front in the face of Chinese aggression in the region.