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Hunter Biden steps off Marine One at Ft. McNair, after spending the night at Camp David, in Washington, U.S., June 25, 2023.
Hunter Biden catches a gun case
Federal prosecutors indicted U.S. President Joe Biden’s son Hunter on three federal gun-related charges on Thursday. The indictments come after a plea deal the younger Biden believed he had struck with federal prosecutors dramatically fell apart at the last minute in July. Hunter now faces up to 25 years in prison for allegedly lying about his drug use on a federal form that was required to purchase a handgun in Delaware in 2018.
President Biden is at no legal risk from his son's indictment. But the charges are politically inconvenient to say the least. They come just days after the House GOP began an impeachment inquiry that centers on so-far-unsubstantiated allegations that President Biden used his political position to profit from his son’s business dealings.
On top of that, the trial – which will likely get under way next year – will now serve as counter-programming to the multiple trials in federal and state court of former President Donald Trump which are slated to start in the spring. That’s right, America: as the 2024 campaigns hit the homestretch, the DOJ will simultaneously be prosecuting President Biden’s son as well as his likely election opponent, Donald Trump. What could be better for a bitterly divided nation?
Members of parliament hold placards after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 20, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Slim win for Macron, protests in South Africa, Trump’s legal woes, Colombia peace collapsing?
Macron’s narrow escape
It came down to the wire, but Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday, with 278 voting to topple the government, nine votes shy of the threshold needed to pass.
Quick recap: The motion was triggered after Macron used a constitutional provision last week -- bypassing a vote in the lower house -- to pass a controversial pension reform despite weeks of protests (more on that here).
Not only do 70% of French adults abhor Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030 – which he says is necessary to plug the growing debt hole – but the French electorate, which has long had a libertarian streak, is also furious that the government used what it says is an anti-democratic loophole to pass the measure.
Macron’s troubles are only just beginning. Hundreds were arrested in Paris over the weekend and on Monday as anti-government protests turned violent and smelly. Unions have called for nationwide demonstrations and strikes in a bid to pressure the government to roll back the measures (which will never happen).
Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne will likely take the fall and resign. Still, Macron, already unpopular before this debacle, will emerge a diminished political figure. After previously saying he understood that people were “tired of reforms which come from above,” it will be very hard for the ideological chameleon to regain the trust of vast swathes of the population.
South Africa’s day of demonstrations
Amid rolling blackouts and a slumping economy, the Marxist-linked Economic Freedom Fighters Party called for a national day of protests Monday, putting law enforcement on high alert.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest party led by longtime leader Julius Malema, is largely backed by poor Black South Africans, many of whom live in townships, as well as younger voters who feel they haven't benefited from the ruling African National Congress Party’s tenure in the post-apartheid era. Indeed, around one-third of South Africans are out of work and the economy is slated to grow by just 0.3% in 2023, down from 2.5% in 2022.
President Cyril Ramaphosa mobilized more than 3,000 troops nationwide in anticipation of mass protests. But turnout was lower than expected, prompting Malema to claim that the government was blocking buses transporting protesters.
The EFF “will still claim the wall-to-wall media coverage around the protests as a victory,” says Ziyanda Sturrman, a South Africa expert at Eurasia Group.
None of this is good news for Ramaphosa, who, after a series of political scandals, looks set to lose his parliamentary majority in next year’s general election. Still, Stuurman notes that if the ANC falls just below the 50% threshold, several small parties have already put their hands up to join an ANC-led coalition.
Trump vs. prosecutors
Former US President Donald Trump faces possible legal challenges on multiple fronts. The state of New York could charge him with fraud for alleged hush money payments to a porn star. The Justice Department could charge him with many suspected crimes related to efforts to overthrow the result of the 2020 election as well as the misuse of hundreds of classified documents recovered by the FBI from his Florida home. Prosecutors in Georgia could charge him with election fraud as part of his alleged effort to overturn that state’s 2020 election result.
If Trump is indicted, he’ll likely present himself for charges, while also calling for protests. He would then be released on bond pending trial, and it’s unlikely that any trial in any of these potential cases would take place in 2023.
Trump would continue his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. There’s nothing in the US Constitution to prevent him from being elected president. His fate would remain with voters. If elected, his presidency would begin in court. In theory, a president could pardon himself for federal crimes. That would have to be tested. But no president can pardon state-level crimes, like those he might be charged with in New York and Georgia. In short, prosecutors and Trump may be about to steer American politics into uncharted waters.
Colombia: Is Petro’s “total peace” going to pieces?
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro took office last year pledging to reach a negotiated “total peace” with the country’s various armed and criminal groups. But on Monday that strategy took a big hit when he was forced to suspend a three-month-old ceasefire with the fearsome Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), the Andean region’s most powerful narco-trafficking outfit. The Clan had allegedly attacked an aqueduct and opened fire on police officers.
The move puts Petro in a tough spot — ramping up military action risks escalating a conflict he was elected in part to end peacefully. But allowing cartels to run riot isn’t an option either.
The setback comes amid a broader season of discontent for Petro: a corruption investigation of his son, the departure of several key coalition ministers, and an approval rating that is net-negative barely six months since he took office.
Petro, a former guerilla who is the country’s first left-wing president, has made an effort to build bridges across the political spectrum so far. But his critics worry that if the going gets tougher, he might resort to a more populist style that could be explosive in a country as polarized as Colombia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with local officials in Sevastopol, Crimea March 18, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Putin in Mariupol, Xi in Moscow, Israeli-Palestinian talks, Trump fearing arrest, Kosovo-Serbia agreement
A defiant Putin heads to Mariupol
Vladimir Putin visited the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, two days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for both him and Russia’s children’s commissioner for the mass abduction of at least 1,400 Ukrainian children. The court claims that some Ukrainian orphans have been forcibly resettled with Russian families, while others were sent to “re-education camps” in Russia with their parents' consent but have not been returned.
This is the closest Putin has gotten to the front lines since the war began in Feb. 2022. The strategic city of Mariupol, which became a symbol of Ukraine’s protracted struggle after Russian forces started pounding the city at the start of the war, was taken last May in a brutal offensive that killed at least 20,000 people.
Putin’s Mariupol visit came a day after his stop in Crimea, where he marked the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of the territory — and both publicized visits likely served as symbolic shows of defiance against both the ICC and the West.
While Putin is unlikely to be in the dock anytime soon, the ICC warrant is a major geopolitical blow for the Kremlin. It increases Putin's physical isolation – Germany, for example, has already said he’ll be arrested if he visits -- and it's less than ideal for him to be labeled a war criminal as he tries to keep nonaligned countries onside.
Xi's choice
China’s Xi Jinping on Monday touched down in Moscow for his first trip since Russia invaded Ukraine. The stakes, to put it mildly, are pretty high.
As the US continues to fret that China might abandon its so-called "pro-Russia neutrality” in the conflict to arm the Russians, Xi says he only wants peace. Likely emboldened by the success of China's role in mediating a recent détente between longtime foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing sees an opening to cast itself as a global peacemaker in Ukraine. But Xi's 12-point peace plan was rejected outright by NATO, while Ukraine says it is open to Chinese mediation but will not compromise with Russia on its territorial integrity. (This week, China's leader also intends to speak with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the war started.)
And what about Vladimir Putin? Before Xi's arrival, the Russian president put on a show of affection for his "good old friend." After all, Xi has met Putin more times than any other world leader since he came to power in 2013. But as the war drags on with no end in sight, Putin knows that Xi must now decide whether to risk a full-blown proxy conflict with the US to help Russia win at all costs ... or rather give Putin an off-ramp to end the war the Ukrainians will accept.
Israeli-Palestinian de-escalation talks
With Ramadan starting later this week, Palestinian and Israeli mediators met on Sunday in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheikh – along with Jordanian, Egyptian, and US representatives – to try and de-escalate tensions in Israel and the West Bank.
After talks in Jordan last month failed to make progress, this weekend's summit aimed to halt the cyclical flare-ups at flashpoint sites that Jerusalem has seen during Ramadan and Passover in recent years.
Both sides agreed on Sunday to set up a mechanism to thwart violence. But reports of a shooting near the town of Huwara in the northern West Bank, which gravely injured one Israeli, cast doubt on the success of the talks. Indeed, it’s the same town where two Jews were killed in a Palestinian terror attack several weeks ago, prompting Jewish settlers to pillage the village and burn scores of Palestinian homes in retaliation.
Crucially, the most recent shooting came after reports that a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad was assassinated in Syria. Still, Israel committed “to stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months.” But that doesn’t necessarily mean much: The same sentiment appeared in a communique after last month’s meeting, but PM Benjamine Netanyahu then came out and said that his right-wing government was not committed to a settlement freeze.
Meanwhile, inside Israel, nationwide protests against the government’s proposed judicial reforms, now in their eleventh week, show no signs of abating. In a phone call with his Israeli counterpart on Sunday, President Biden too expressed deep concern over the judicial overhaul.
Will Trump be arrested?
ALL CAPS are back! Taking to social media on Saturday, former President Donald Trump called on his supporters to take to the streets, claiming that he would be indicted by a grand jury in New York, and arrested, in the coming days.
Writing on Truth Social – his own social media platform – Trump said that he’ll likely be detained on Tuesday on charges linked to a 2016 payment to an adult film star in violation of campaign finance rules.
Though it’s widely assumed that an indictment against Trump, who recently turned down an opportunity to testify before a grand jury, could be imminent, the Manhattan district attorney’s office has remained mum on details.
Still, the DA is clearly worried about the fallout and has urged staff not to be intimidated by the former president’s social media shtick. New York City police are also on high alert to ensure the DA's office is protected.
We’re watching to see how other Republican presidential candidates react to the developments. While Trump’s legal woes could help his opponents, dissing the former president might not land well with much of the GOP base.
Kosovo and Serbia take the next step
Serbia and Kosovo reached a tentative agreement on Saturday to implement an EU-backed deal to normalize relations after years of tensions threatened to reignite war. Sound convoluted? Well, it is.
The two sides began negotiating with the EU shortly after Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. (For background on the conflict and where things currently stand, see our explainer here.)
While EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said a deal had been reached, both sides said big disagreements remain. Essentially, the two sides agreed they would maintain “good neighborly relations” and recognize the other’s state symbols – including license plates! Crucially, it would prevent Serbia from blocking Kosovo's membership in the UN and other international organizations.
Why now? Both countries are vying to join the European Union, and the bloc has made it clear that cannot happen without the normalization of ties. What’s more, maintaining stability in the Balkans has renewed importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While this is a big step, critics say that without full mutual recognition, implementation – and adherence – of this EU-backed deal could be a long shot.