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Just kidding, Canada wants in on AUKUS after all
Just over two years ago, Canada’s Liberal government dismissed the country’s absence from AUKUS – the Indo-Pacific security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. “This is a deal for submarines,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “which Canada is not currently or anytime soon in the market for.” He assured voters it would have no impact on Canada’s Five Eyes partnership (the intelligence pact between Australia, New Zealand, the UK, the US, and Canada), and that was that.
Canada wasn’t being snubbed or sidelined for being a defense-spending laggard … or so we were told. Canada simply didn’t want or need nuclear submarines. Never mind that it was reported at the time that AUKUS also included military technology and information sharing as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
On second thought …
Fast-forward to spring 2023. Now, Canada wants in and is saying so publicly, citing – you guessed it – a desire to share information and military technology. Defense Minister Anita Anand hasn’t said whether the country has formally sought AUKUS membership, but if you read between the lines, it’s pretty clear that it wants in. "Canada is highly interested in furthering cooperation on AI, quantum computing, and other advanced technologies … with our closest allies,” Anand said this week.
(Not for nothing, New Zealand is striking a similar pose, recently suggesting it is also open to joining the pact for the non-nuclear bits.)
The truth is, two years ago there was plenty of handwringing about the state and future of defense policy when Canada was shunned from AUKUS. Ottawa was nervous that it was being shut out of key Indo-Pacific strategizing, a Five-Eyes world headed toward two fewer peepers.
“You can imagine, from the Canadian perspective, the idea that we’re slowly moving into a Three-Eyes world, certainly in the Pacific, and that we are there with New Zealand on the outside, is a bit of a shock,” says Canadian defense policy expert Philippe Lagassé, an associate professor of international affairs at Carleton University. Canada, he notes, does not wish for AUKUS to become a “de facto new alliance structure for the Five-Eyes.”
So what’s changed?
Canada may want to push harder to join AUKUS now that it has a better sense of what’s on offer. After all, Ottawa wasn’t included in the discussions leading up to the formation of AUKUS. “We weren’t privy to the details of what it might look like and what it might involve,” says Lagassé.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, agrees that the evolution of the alliance has made it more appealing. Initially, “the AUKUS agreement focused largely on Pillar I related to nuclear submarines, which are of limited interest to Canada,” he says. But when it comes to Pillar II and the development and sharing of advanced technology for both civil and military purposes, “Canada likely doesn’t want to miss out on the potential industrial benefits, especially considering its close integration with the US on the critical minerals supply chains needed to produce those technologies,” he says.
Domestic politics may also be at play here. As it happens, the security partnership – or at least the parts Canada wants in on – “pings exactly where some of this government’s spending priorities are,” says Lagassé. A look through government budgets and announcements shows that those areas include artificial intelligence, critical minerals, and quantum technologies, which are bound up in the AUKUS alliance.
Moreover, geopolitics has changed in the last two years. “Relations between the US and China have also deteriorated since AUKUS launched,” Thompson says. “Ottawa’s apparent change of heart should be understood in that much more competitive and uncertain geopolitical context.”
In short, Canada doesn’t want to be left behind, whether it’s on Indo-Pacific military strategy, information sharing, or technological development. And it definitely wants in on the lucrative contracts and trade that come with developing and selling military equipment that accounts for much of the economic activity in a handful of Canadian regions. These areas – Quebec, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and Ontario – are home to a handful of seats in Parliament that the Liberal government needs to hold on to.
What’s in it for the US – and the others?
You might expect the US to welcome Canada to the party – even if it arrives late and without much to share. But maybe not. The US and Canada engage in significant military and intelligence cooperation as members of NATO and the Five Eyes, and Eurasia Group Senior Analyst Ali Wyne says “Washington would welcome opportunities to deepen [that], especially amid deteriorating relations between Ottawa and Beijing.” But, he adds, “there is no public indication that the United States is actively pushing for Canada’s inclusion in AUKUS.”
That may not come as a surprise to Trudeau. Owing to decades of bipartisan neglect, Thompson says that “Canadian forces are relatively underfunded and underequipped, so Ottawa lacks the overall capacity and capabilities that would make it a more attractive military partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific.” Australia, on the other hand, spends more on defense than Canada “despite only having roughly two-thirds of the population,” he adds.
It’s also not just up to the US. If anyone wants Canada on board, Lagassé thinks the US would probably be the most open to it, whereas Australia and the UK may be more reticent “because it would mean sharing potential economic benefits with a fourth partner.” The two smaller AUKUS partners might ask why Canada should reap the economic benefits if it’s “not spending on the subs” or contributing expensive, difficult-to-produce parts. “It’s not a charity,” Lagassé adds.
Choosing sides for Cold War 2.0
Backdropping AUKUS is an increasingly polarized global order in which the West and China are cast as adversaries, recalling a Cold War posture in which Washington headed the First World, pulling its allies into its orbit, while the Soviet Union led the Second World, collecting its own allied states.
Canada’s absence from AUKUS, says Wyne, “limits the extent to which it can align with key allies and partners in competing with China and shaping the Indo-Pacific’s security architecture.”
Canada tends to hedge its bets, not wanting to fully alienate China, from whom it imported $100 billion in goods and exported $27.9 billion worth in 2022. But there’s little doubt where most of its chips lie: with the United States.Handout photo dated January 26, 2023 shows Air Force 33rd Search and Rescue Squadron preparing to land aboard an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65) in the Philippine Sea.
After China pretends to invade Taiwan, US & Philippines rehearse war against ... China
The US and the Philippines have held annual Balikatan (shoulder to shoulder) joint military drills since 1991. But this year's exercise is a bigger deal than usual.
For one thing, the drills — which kicked off Tuesday — involve more than 17,000 troops from the two countries, making them the largest ever. For another, they are partly being held in disputed waters in the South China Sea — claimed almost entirely by Beijing and partly by Manila.
More importantly, the war games come on the heels of China's own military muscle-flexing near Taiwan,rehearsing an invasion of the self-ruled island as payback for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's hangout with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
For the US — which rejects Beijing’s expanded maritime sovereignty — the drills aim to send China a clear message: We will defend our allies as you move to militarize the South China Sea.
What’s more, Uncle Sam wants the region to remain free for navigation and seaborne trade. That’s why the US Navy patrols the disputed waters despite the risk of running into Chinese “research” vessels.
But for China, the exercises are proof that the Americans are pushing the Filipinos to help them contain Chinese military power in the region. (For the first time, this year’s war games feature target practice on a mock fishing boat, Beijing’s shadow navy of "little blue men" in the disputed waters.)
The odd man out is the Philippines, once again left walking a tightrope between the US and China.
Since his May 2022 election, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — having seen the writing on the wall of rising anti-China sentiment among Filipinos under Rodrigo Duterte, his pro-China predecessor — has been inching closer to Washington. One important recent gesture was granting the US military access to army camps in the northern part of the archipelago, very close to Taiwan.
Yet, Marcos previously made a much-publicized visit to China, the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of foreign investment. The upshot is that with a weak economy and an even weaker military, the country can't afford to lose either the US security umbrella or the ability to do biz with China.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. And growing US-China tensions over Taiwan will only raise the stakes in the future.
Mexican authorities and firefighters remove injured migrants, mostly Venezuelans, from inside the National Migration Institute (INM) building during a fire, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico March 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Mexican fire, ZAUKUS, terror in the Sahel, Luke Skywalker saves Ukraine
38: Migrants fearing deportation set an immigration detention center ablaze in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, killing 38 asylum-seekers and critically injuring dozens. The blaze was one of the deadliest incidents ever for Mexico's immigration system, which is accused of mistreating migrants as it struggles to accommodate the rising number of asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S-Mexico border.
4: New Zealand may become the 4th country to join the US, UK, and Australia in the AUKUS alliance – or shall we say ZAUKUS? While less concerned with the non-nuclear pillar of the alliance – the part Wellington may join – China has already signaled its opposition to AUKUS’S potential to disrupt the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
2,000: The number of terrorism victims has increased by 2,000% in the Sahel region of Africa over the past 15 years, according to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index. More than 20,000 civilians have been killed by terrorism in the region since 2007 – a concern for local governments and European leaders faced with increased migration as a result of the violence.
14 million: Luke Skywalker has joined the fight. Mark Hamill, who played Skywalker, is the new voice of Ukraine's aerial bombardment Air Alert app. The app has been downloaded over 14 million times, and now Ukrainian users will hear the Jedi Knight warn them when to find shelter – before sending them on their way (when the danger has passed) with the iconic phrase: “May the force be with you.”
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."