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Displaced Palestinians walk in a tent camp amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on Nov. 9, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Israel expands humanitarian zone, Bitcoin bounces, Italy’s Meloni loses in court, OECD prices remain high, A very late book return
84,653: The price of bitcoin hit a record high of $84,653 on Monday afternoon on hopes that President-elect Donald Trump will offer cryptocurrency-friendly policies. A year ago, bitcoin sold for about $37,000.
7: An immigration court in Italy has rejected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s bid to detain Europe-bound asylum-seekers in Albania. The judge ruled that seven Bangladeshi and Egyptian men brought to Albania by an Italian warship must be taken to Italy and remain there as they await a decision on their asylum application.
30: Though the inflation rate has cooled across wealthy countries, average price levels across the OECD remained about 30% higher in September 2024 than in December 2019, before COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent inflation surging.
51: A book called “The Early Work of Aubrey Beardsley” was returned to a public library in Massachusetts last week. The book was due for return on May 22, 1973, making it 51 years late. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed that China’s government will pay the fine. (Just kidding.) The Worcester Public Library does not charge late fees.Tourists visit the Torre de Belem (Belem Tower) in Lisbon, Portugal on October 19, 2021.
Hard Numbers: No tax for young Portuguese, Milton's death toll, Saudis fail at UN Human Rights Council, Nobel winners, UN wants its money back, US inflation cools
0: Portugal's government has proposed a novel plan to stem the flow of talented young people exiting the country for brighter job prospects in other countries. Beginning in 2025, young people earning up to €28,000 ($30,600) a year would pay zero income tax for their first year of work. They’d then get a 75% tax exemption from the second to the fifth year, 50% between the sixth and ninth years, and 25% in the 10th year.
12: More than 2 million Floridians still have no power as a result of Hurricane Milton, and the storm has been linked to at least 12 deaths, mostly on the eastern side of the Sunshine State.
7: On Wednesday,Saudi Arabia came up short in its bid to win a seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council, a setback for the kingdom’s bid to remake its image. The Asia-Pacific group of candidates, which included Saudi Arabia, had six candidates vying for five seats. The Saudis won 117 votes, seven fewer than the fifth-place Marshall Islands.
121: Novelist Han Kang is the 121st winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature — and the first South Korean author to win the award. Kang was lauded for “her intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life.”
105: The Japanese anti-nuclear weapons organization Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors, has been awarded the 105th Nobel Peace Prize. The group received the honor early Friday “for its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again," said the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which has been issuing the prize since 1901.
58.8: A United Nations tribunal has ordered a former high-ranking official to repay the UN $58.8 million of the organization’s money which he steered towards a British businessman in crooked deals. Vitaly Vanshelboim, a 20-year veteran of the UN who is from Ukraine, is accused of receiving interest-free loans and a Mercedes, among other gifts.
2.4: US inflation fell to 2.4% in September. That’s an improvement from 2.5% in August but fell short of the 2.3% analysts expected. The drop in inflation may not be enough to justify a 50 basis point rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets in November.Graphic Truth: Burgernomics and how wage growth has outpaced inflation
So you’ve heard of Bidenomics, but what about burgernomics? Allow us to introduce you to the Big Mac Index, which uses the price of a McDonald's Big Mac to assess whether currencies are over- or undervalued relative to the US dollar.
The index shows purchasing (patty) power, or the gap between productivity and living standards, between countries. It compares the local price of a Big Mac in different countries, converted to US dollars. But it's also a good measure of inflation – a hot topic for the US election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both arguing that they have been better stewards of the economy. Of course, both administrations were majorly affected by COVID, which also had an impact on Big Mac prices.
Before the pandemic, you could buy a Big Mac for $4.82 – or a crisp $5 bill with change to spare, but today, you pay $5.69. This might seem like a win for Trump, but in terms of wages, the story is more complicated. In 2020, an average worker could afford about five Big Macs with an hour’s pay, but now, one hour of work could buy you 5.4 Big Macs. This reflects how, since March 2023, wage growth has outpaced inflation, with the average American’s hourly pay increasing by 5.9%, while prices have jumped just 4.1%.
Shopping in a Whole Foods Market supermarket in New York on Monday, August 12, 2024.
US inflation falls to three-year low
A closer look: Annual core inflation — which strips out volatile energy and food costs — fell from from 3.3 to 3.2 since June, suggesting pandemic-era supply constraints continue to ease. Grocery prices rose only 1.1% and gas prices fell 2.2% over the past year.
These trends mirror what’s happening north of the border, where falling inflation allowed the Bank of Canada to begin cutting rates this summer for the first time in four years.
The political impact: Falling inflation should in principle be good news for American Democrats and Canadian Liberals, since incumbents are typically held to account for economic perceptions. That said, Justin Trudeau’s polling numbers are so bad right now it’s hard to see what, if anything, could temper the negative vibes around him.
For Kamala Harris, meanwhile, the numbers provide a fresh tailwind as she flies into North Carolina for her economic policy rollout speech on Friday.
Ian Explains: What's so radical about Argentina's new president (besides his cloned dogs)?
Argentina's new libertarian president, Javier Milei, is not like other Argentine presidents. He's not like anyone else, for that matter. But it's not his penchant for dressing up as a superhero and singing about fiscal policy that sets him apart. Nor is it his cloned dogs or bombastic approach to politics. Six months into his first year in office, it's his radical plan to save Argentina's economy that's truly radical. And here's the thing...so far it seems to be working.
Despite living in one of the largest and most resource-rich nations in Latin America, the average Argentine has endured one economic calamity after another. Milei has vowed to put an end to what he refers to as "100 years of decadence. But can he pull it off?
The self-proclaimed tantric sex guru with a mop of unruly black hair that he claims the invisible hand of the free market keeps in place campaigned for president last year by promising to take a chainsaw literally to government spending and to eliminate Argentina's Central Bank. He also derided climate change as a socialist conspiracy. He called the Argentine compatriot Pope Francis a "leftist S.O.B." He's known universally in Argentina as El Loco or the madman. And then back in November, he won the election in a landslide.
When he won, many experts expected that Milei's self-styled, anarcho-capitalism would be the death knell for an economy already in free fall. But after taking office in December, Argentina's 300% annual inflation slowed for five months in a row. His government did this by turning the 5.5% budget deficit that it inherited into the country's first surplus in over a decade. And all without destabilizing their currency and their financial markets.
But while Milei's shock therapy has been successful at balancing the budget and slowing inflation, the fiscal and monetary austerity has caused a deep recession, with economic activity shrinking almost 10% year-on-year back in March, unemployment rising, real salaries in Argentina hitting their lowest points since 2003. Mass protests against budget cuts to public universities back in June drew more than 400,000 people to the streets.
Can Milei save Argentina's economy before he destroys it?
Watch Ian's exclusive interview with Javier Milei on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Chinese pilots deplane from a JH-7 fighter-bomber in preparation for the 9th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, known as Airshow China 2012, in Zhuhai city, south Chinas Guangdong province, 10 November 2012.
Hard Numbers: China rattles the saber, Egypt’s inflation falls, Japan props up yen, Spain wins Euros
30: Taiwan’s defense ministry recorded 30 Chinese combat jets and seven warships in the skies and waters around the islandon Saturday and said it was monitoring “waves” of missile tests in Inner Mongolia province. These are the third large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan this week.
27.5: Inflation rates in Egypt have dropped for the fourth straight month to 27.5%, down from an agonizing 38% peak in September. However, economists warn that fuel, medicine, fertilizer, and naturalgas markets remain volatile, and Egypt’s most needy families are smarting from a 300% increase in the price of subsidized bread.
22 billion: A Bloomberg analysis of the Bank of Japan’s accounts found it had likely spent approximately $22 billion propping up the anemic yen, which has lost 11% of its value this year, on Thursday. This would mark the third time the central bank has directly intervened in the currency market — an expensive practice, but Tokyo has few other options while the difference between US and Japanese interest rates remains so vast.
2-1: Spain beat England 2-1 in a thrilling final of the Euro 2024 championship on Sunday, marking their fourth time bringing home the cup. England, the country that invented modern football, has never won. In Miami, Argentina won the Copa America 1-0 against Colombia, but the event was marred by botched security that saw scenes of panic as unticketed fans rushed and overwhelmed barriers.Shopping in a Whole Foods Market supermarket in New York on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Global economy brightens, and US inflation eases, but costs remain high
It's time for a mid-year economic checkup! According to the World Bank, the global economy has improved since the start of the year. Growth increased by 2.6%, and average inflation is at a three-year low – bringing us closer to the “soft landing” economists have aimed for since the end of the COVID-19 shutdown. And experts say we have the strength of the US economy to thank.
This may come as news to Americans irked by high prices at home, but US inflation fell 3.3% in May, leading traders in the futures market to raise their bets on a September rate cut to 84% and causing the S&P 500 to jump 1.3%.
The news also has Joe Biden jumping … for joy. Polls show that the economy is one of – if not the biggest – issues in the 2024 election, and he has lagged behind Donald Trump in polls.
While rates could begin to fall in September, central bankers warn the risk of further inflation remains high, so they are unlikely to reverse the last two years of rate hikes quickly.
But even if interest rates or prices fall, the cost of big-ticket items like housing, healthcare, childcare, and higher education have been climbing unabated for years, trapping the US economy in a much harder-to-solve affordability crisis and keeping voters pessimistic about the economy.
Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC) protest against the high cost of living and massive suffering following a hike in petrol and devaluation of the Naira in Lagos, Nigeria.
Hard Numbers: Blackouts in Nigeria, Turkey’s soaring inflation, Deadly flooding in Central Europe, A new (but familiar) face in UK election, Murdoch ties the knot (again)
4: Millions have taken to the streets in Nigeria as unions began their fourth (and indefinite) strike against President Bola Tinubu’s wage policies. Nigeria unions have shut down six power grids, leading to a national blackout at 2am on Monday that halted much of the country’s aviation activity. Unions assert the strike will not end until the government agrees to raise the monthly minimum wage, over tenfold from 30,000 Naira ($20 USD) to 500,000 Naira ($336 USD).
75.5: Inflation has surpassed 75.5% in Turkey, jumping up 5.65% in the last month. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek reassured Turkish citizens that “the worst is over,” as the government will begin pushing down inflation in June.
5: Heavy rains over the weekend led to widespread flooding in southern Germany and France, which killed five people, including a rescue worker. States of emergency have been announced throughout the region as highways, railways, and more have been submerged beneath several meters of water.
10: On Monday, Brexit “architect” Nigel Farage announced his plan to “make Britain great again” as the Reform UK party’s candidate in next month’s election. Although his party is only polling at around 10%, it is enough to further destabilize the ruling Tories, who are expected to be beaten soundly by Labour.
5: Is the fifth time the charm? Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, 93, said “I do” last Saturday to Elena Zhukova, a 67-year-old retired molecular biologist. The couple looked very happy tying the knot in Los Angeles, CA, and showed us it’s never too late for love … particularly if you are a billionaire.