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FILE PHOTO: Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine speaks during the funeral of Mohammed Nasser, a senior Hezbollah commander who was killed by what security sources say was an Israel strike on Wednesday, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon July 4, 2024.
Israel says presumed successor to Nasrallah has been killed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, had died in an airstrike in Beirut, but it has not been confirmed by Hezbollah. News of the purported assassination came the same day that the Israeli military deployed the 146th Division “Ha-Mapatz” to its invasion of southern Lebanon, where it joined three other divisions in attempting to push Hezbollah back from the border area.
Netanyahu reiterated his priority of enabling 60,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the North to return home. He also warned that Lebanon faces “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza” if the Lebanese people do not “free” themselves of Hezbollah. Israel has urged Lebanese civilians to flee north of the Awali River, about 15 miles north of the border.
The number of troops committed — full-strength Israeli divisions number 10,000 - 15,000 soldiers, though entire divisions are not always deployed simultaneously — tells Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan that Israel is determined to completely scour out a buffer zone, some of which they may occupy.
“Whatever northern boundary they pick, they really want to destroy any Hezbollah infrastructure or potential for presence within that boundary,” he says. “I think the number of troops reflects the difficulty of the challenge and Israeli goals to absolutely dismantle any potential threat Hezbollah could use the buffer area to shell northern Israel.”
Israel Defense Forces carrying out what they claim was a “targeted raid” in the northern part of the Gaza Strip overnight on Thursday (26October2023)
Is Israel ready for the nightmare waiting in Gaza?
Israeli troops backed by heavy armor and air assets launched two major incursions into Gaza on Thursday and Friday. The raiders targeted anti-tank missile positions and infrastructure Hamas will use in their defensive operations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that a ground invasion is coming but didn’t disclose any details about its timing. Thess large raids, targeting objectives Hamas can repair or redeploy fairly easily given enough time, suggests it could be imminent.
That said, keep in mind the political dimension. Netanyahu’s government promised to exert maximum pressure on Hamas, but nearly three weeks since the terrorist group’s massacre and kidnappings on Oct. 7, Israel’s intense air campaign has only yielded the release of four hostages. A major raid could buy time without risking high casualties and make a government already under pressure for its intelligence and security failures appear less unprepared.
But how can one prepare to take Gaza? Just ask veterans of Fallujah or Huế what urban combat is like, then add in 2.3 million civilians with nowhere to run and a network of underground tunnels the enemy has been gearing up to defend for years, and you’ll get a taste. There is no way to avoid intense, chaotic fighting and massive bloodshed.
What’s more, the international pressure on Israel is mounting. The United States, Israel’s most important ally in the region, is urging Netanyahu to delay while it moves air defense assets into the region in case Iran or its proxies expand the conflict. Washington is also leading efforts to persuade Egypt to allow foreign nationals trapped in Gaza to leave the territory via the Rafah crossing (see our map for more). Qatar, meanwhile, is negotiating a deal with Hamas to free the remaining hostages in exchange for a pause in bombing and permitting fuel to enter Gaza.
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