Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Donald Trump gestures after taking the oath of office during his first inauguration in Washington, DC, in January 2017.
Was Iran trying to assassinate Donald Trump?
The Justice Department on Friday charged three men with plotting to assassinate Donald Trump on the orders of the Iranian government.
“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target US citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said Friday.
The alleged murder-for-hire scheme was unveiled as investigators interviewed an apparent Afghani Iranian government asset who told them that a contact in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard instructed him to create a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump. The plot was unsealed days after Trump prevailed in this week’s presidential election and is purportedly among other ongoing Iranian efforts to take out US government officials on American soil. Another alleged plot targeted Brooklyn-based human rights activist Masih Alinejad. (See Ian Bremmer’s interview with Alinejad in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s in-custody death in Iran from 2022 here).
Two of the three men have been arrested, but one, Farhad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
Why would Iran want to kill Trump? During the first Trump presidency, the US and Iran found themselves on the brink of war after Trump ordered a strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s top generals. Trump also withdrew the US from the Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Iran likely dreads another Trump presidency, not only because the president-elect may pursue another “maximum pressure” strategy, but because he is likely to empower Israel to intensify its fight against Iranian proxies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and former President Donald Trump, meeting in New York City on Sept. 27, 2024.
How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have massive geopolitical implications. During his first term, Trump’s chaotic foreign policy was driven by his “America First” philosophy, which combined a transactional view of alliances and an isolationist-leaning skepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts. He withdrew from major agreements, routinely insulted allies (often via tweets), questioned the value of NATO and the UN, launched a trade war with China, cozied up to authoritarian adversaries, and was viewed as an untrustworthy leader across the globe.
Given the tumultuous nature of his initial four years in office, the world is now bracing for the impact of Trump’s return.
Here’s a closer look at what we can expect from Trump on some of the biggest foreign policy issues.
China
Trump 1.0 took a hardline approach to trade with China, which he holds responsible for draining American manufacturing jobs. He imposed several rounds of tariffs that were continued by the Biden administration.
The president-elect has threatened to raise those tariffs further – up to 60%. China, which has been struggling economically, is ramping up exports in order to get ahead of any Trump 2.0 tariffs.
Trump has also threatened to revoke the CHIPS Act, a law signed by President Joe Biden to increase competitiveness with Beijing in the semiconductors race by offering billions to companies that produce in the US. Trump says he prefers to simply slap tariffs on Chinese chips directly.
Taiwan
Trump’s victory is making Taiwan anxious, amid questions over whether he’ll continue to support the self-governing island democracy as it contends with an increasingly aggressive China. The president-elect has called for Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province, to begin paying the US for defense. By law, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons. The island purchases billions in arms from the US.
Trump has also accused Taiwan, the world’s biggest producer of semiconductors, of stealing the US’s “chip business.”
When asked in October whether he would use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Trump said, “I wouldn’t have to” because Xi “respects” him and knows he’s “f— crazy.”
The Middle East
Trump’s election victory is good news for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump took numerous steps that aided Netanyahu’s agenda. He controversially moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and said the US no longer considered Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal under international law. Bibi in a tweet celebrated Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback!”
Trump will likely be even more pro-Israel than Biden – former CIA Chief Leon Panetta has even said he expects the president-elect to give Netanyahu “a blank check.”
But Trump has also expressed a desire for a quick end to the war in Gaza and has vowed to bring peace to the region. At a minimum, his election win gives Netanyahu room to delay any cease-fire deal until after Trump’s inauguration.
Saudi Arabia is also likely pleased to see Trump return. He stood by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the aftermath of the kingdom’s brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and derailed efforts in Washington to punish Riyadh. Trump could potentially use his strong ties with Saudi Arabia to foster a deal that would see the oil-rich country normalize ties with Israel — though the Saudis still say this won’t happen until the issue of Palestinian statehood is resolved.
Trump’s win also has significant implications with regard to Iran, which is currently locked in a tit-for-tat with Israel that has fueled fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
The US and Iran were on the brink of war under Trump after he ordered the strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. Tensions were already high at the time due to Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose harsh economic sanctions in a failed bid to get Tehran to agree to a stricter deal.
Trump has pledged to avoid new wars in his second term and in September signaled he was open to talks with Tehran to achieve a new agreement to ensure Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. But if he once again pursues a “maximum pressure” strategy, it could raise the risk of conflict.
Ukraine
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” but he hasn’t elaborated on how he’ll accomplish this.
As a result, his victory ushers in a new era of uncertainty for Kyiv. Trump, who’s repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposes continued US support for Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion. The Ukrainian military would struggle to sustain the fight without continued US assistance.
The dynamic between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is awkward. Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 was tied to his decision to freeze aid to Ukraine as he pressured Zelensky to launch an investigation into Biden over bogus corruption allegations.
Trump has also blamed Zelensky for the war with Russia, though it was Putin who ordered the Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic.
But Zelensky on Wednesday said he had a “great” conversation with Trump as he congratulated him on winning the election. “We agreed to maintain a close dialogue and develop our cooperation. Strong and steadfast US leadership is vital to the world and to a just peace,” he added, praising Trump’s “peace through strength” approach to global affairs.
Putin on Thursday also congratulated Trump, praising him as a “brave man.” The Russian leader added that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”
Mexico
The US-Mexico relationship could suffer under Trump, who routinely rails against the country in relation to immigration, has pledged to conduct mass deportations, and has even suggested the US should use military force against Mexican drug cartels.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on America’s southern neighbor — and largest trading partner — even though this would potentially violate the trade deal that he negotiated with Mexico and Canada while in office.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is so far playing it cool in the face of these threats. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum said Mexicans have “nothing to worry about” over Trump’s election win.
“We are a free, independent, sovereign country and there will be good relations with the United States. I am convinced of this,” Sheinbaum added.
Europe
Trump’s victory raises many questions about US relations with Europe. Amid ongoing economic woes across the continent, European leaders are unsettled by Trump’s threat to apply blanket tariffs on goods imported into the US. But it remains to be seen whether Trump will make good on this.
Trump frequently clashed with European allies during his first term, using unprecedented and alarming threats to withdraw from NATO altogether as a means of getting them to spend more on defense as part of the alliance.. His win is sparking fresh conversations about the need for Europe to be less reliant on the US for defense.
NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday said Trump was “right” to pressure NATO countries to spend more on defense. The NATO chief said he was “looking forward” to sitting down with Trump to discuss issues of concern to the alliance.
Meanwhile, the far right prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, celebrated the US election result as a “much needed victory for the world,” though on Thursday he cautioned that trade relations with a more protectionist administration “will not be easy.”
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's plans for policy & personnel - GZERO Media ›
- Global leaders scramble to align with Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
An elderly man holds an Iranian flag during an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel rally marking the anniversary of the U.S. embassy occupation outside the former U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, Iran, on November 3, 2024, two days before the U.S. Presidential elections.
Khamenei’s “teeth-breaking” threat and UNICEF’s warning for Gaza
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneivowed a “teeth-breaking” response to recent Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites after Israel admitted striking targets in the Islamic Republic.
Speaking to students on Saturday, just before Monday’s 45th anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, Khamenei emphasized Iran’s military and political readiness to counteract what he called the “arrogance” of both Israel and the United States. Kamal Kharrazi, a top adviser to Khamenei, alsowarned that Iran might reconsider its nuclear doctrine if faced with an “existential threat,” stating it is currently capable of producing nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile,UNICEF warned on Saturday that the population of northern Gaza, particularly children, faces an “imminent risk of dying” due to disease, famine, and bombing campaigns. Executive Director Catherine Russell reported deadly strikes over the weekend in Jabalia, where at least 50 children were killed as they sought shelter in targeted buildings.
The WHO has also reported new strikes onhospitals and health centers, which the Israel Defense Forces say are used to shelter Hamas terrorists. In response, the IDFissued a statement that it was “focused on dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities while adhering to international law and minimizing civilian harm.”
Iranians walk next to an anti-US and Israeli billboard with pictures of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on a street in Tehran, Iran, October 27, 2024.
Will Iran attack Israel before Election Day?
Iran initially downplayed the significance of Israel’s recent attack on Iranian missile production sites and air defense batteries, signaling that Tehran wasn’t in a big hurry to strike back. But new reporting from CNN indicates that Iran is planning a “definitive and painful” strike against Israel — probably before Election Day in the US on Nov. 5.
A separate report from Axios, citing Israeli intel, also suggests that Iran would carry out the attack in the coming days and would potentially do so via proxies in Iraq to reduce the likelihood of Israel striking Iranian territory again.
These reports are perplexing, particularly given that Iran has made assassination threats against former President Donald Trump over the strike he ordered that killed Qassem Soleimani. Attacking Israel just days before the US election could benefit the GOP candidate by putting pressure on the Biden administration to respond, potentially opening the door for Trump to call Democrats weak on Iran.
Along these lines, Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project, said rumors of an impending Iranian attack “make no sense.”
“Iran has no interest in doing anything that benefits Trump on Nov. 5,” says Vaez, adding that Tehran “needs time to repair and replace its damaged air defense systems and is unlikely to retaliate when its critical infrastructure is so exposed.”
These reports could be a product of “Iranian psychological warfare,” Vaez said, or perhaps Israel is seeking a “justification for a preemptive strike.”
We’ll be watching this space closely in the days ahead.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, October 27, 2024.
Iran keeps cards close to its chest after Israeli attack
Iran is vowing to respond to Israel after it launched strikes over the weekend against Iranian military targets, including missile production facilities and air defense batteries. If this sounds familiar, it’s because Iran and Israel have been locked in an escalating feud over the past year that has raised fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East with the Jewish state already waging war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian government initially downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, but Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday warned it will use “all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response.” This came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday said that Israel’s attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Meanwhile, Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday said that Iran would respond “appropriately” but isn’t looking for war.
Along these lines, Tehran appears to be weighing its options and isn’t in a rush to retaliate. It wants to avoid being entangled in a bigger conflict with Israel, which could potentially draw in the US, but also wants to continue to be perceived as a regional power player.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, said that with this attack “Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively.”
“For now, it looks like Israel’s policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town,” Bremmer adds. This could mean Iran chooses to move toward de-escalation.
We’ll be watching to see if Tehran offers more signs on how it might respond in the days ahead, as the Biden administration continues to push for a cease-fire in Gaza and a truce between Israel and Hezbollah in a last-ditch diplomatic sprint ahead of Election Day in the US.
After Israel's response to Iran, what's next?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. No, not US elections, that'll be next week. This week. Want to talk about the Middle East and the fact that the Israelis almost a month after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of them didn't get through and no Israeli deaths on the ground, nonetheless, the Israelis expected to respond. And respond they finally have.
Military targets that they focused on. They did some damage, caused more damage to Iran than the Iranians did to Israel during their attack. That's clearly a message that the Israelis intended to send in terms of their ability to have dominance over both escalation and deterrence between the two. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, on the back of that, said not to exaggerate or downplay the strikes, that the Iranians will respond, but also the Iranians said that they fully intercepted the Israeli attack. In other words, nothing big to see here. Crude oil down about 6% today. In other words, this is the end of this escalation cycle between Iran and Israel.
Now, I have been critical of the Biden administration's inability to have much of any impact on Israeli decision-making over the course of this war. This time is a little different, they did have some impact here. And in the early days after the Israelis were hit by Iran, and keep in mind the Iranians got that information that the strike was coming to the United States, the US, of course, immediately shared it with Israel and did everything they could to coordinate with allies in the region to defend Israel effectively, which helped to ensure that the Israelis didn't take casualties, significant casualties.
But also the Biden administration saying they really didn't want Israel to engage in strikes against nuclear targets in Iran, against oil targets in Iran. And they did a couple of things for Israel. First, they sent an additional THAAD missile defense system, which they got to Israel and set up within two weeks on the ground, which is incredible fast-tracking to help further defend Israel.
Secondly, they actually took sanctions, put sanctions on additional tankers that were shutting down their transponders and shipping oil illegally for Iranian export. Not everything. The Iranians have over a million barrels a day that they get out, but probably took about 200,000 barrels a day off the market. In other words, that's money that the Iranians no longer have access to that they were able to use for whatever they wanted, including paying for Iranian proxies that target Israel.
In response for that and American diplomacy, the Israelis ended up, I would argue, with a slightly more restrained strike against Iran. They did engage in hits against Iranian missile production facilities, as well as defense against their ... that helps to defend their nuclear, their research program and weapons program, such as it is, which means that Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively. So the message has been very, very clearly sent.
Of course, it was also helpful for Israel that they were able to kill Sinwar, the Palestinian Hamas leader, in Rafah, in Gaza, over the past couple of weeks. I mean, the Israeli war cabinet is flying high from a military perspective right now. They didn't need to show great capacity against Iran, nor have they, given their recent successes against Hezbollah.
I think it's interesting how Iran is responding to all of this, that we're seeing Iranian leaders, not just on the president and foreign affairs side, who are more reformist in orientation, but also recently Ali Velayati, who's an advisor to the Supreme Leader, saying that the Iranians are very interested in engaging more with the West, specifically with Europe. In other words, with the Iranians seeing that they are clearly on the back foot vis-a-vis Israel, is there any way that they can more effectively engage with the West, normalized relations, maybe end up with more money for their economy that way?
Certainly, I expect that they are also thinking heavily about what else they can do in their nuclear program, either illicitly or maybe with Russian support. But for now, it looks like Israel's policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town.
That's where we are right now. Those are the latest headlines, and for the next week we're going to be talking a lot about US elections. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Hamas Oct. 7 attack at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2024, where he was heckled by family members victims.
Calculated hit: Israel strikes Iranian military sites, avoids energy infrastructure
Iran and Israel appear to be standing down from further conflict after Israel struck military targets near Tehran but did not inflict damage on the country’s energy infrastructure. The Saturday morning attacks killed four soldiers and came in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile assault on Israel, which was a response toIsrael taking out top Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon in September.
Responding in measured tone. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the Israeli strikes must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that Tehran was not looking for war with Israel but would respond “appropriately” and “defend the rights of our nation and country.”
Meanwhile, Iraq's government on Monday lodged a protest with the UN Security Council over Israel's use of Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.
Weekend at Bibi’s. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had both a good and bad weekend. The presiding judge of an International Criminal Court panel reviewing arrest warrant requests for Netanyahu, his defense minister, and senior Hamas leaders has been replaced due to medical reasons, which coulddelay proceedings. But Netanyahu was also heckled on Sunday by families of the victims of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks during a speech marking the tragedy in Jerusalem.
Earlier in the day, a truck rammed into a group of retirees at a bus stop near an Israeli military base north of the capital, killing one and injuring over 30 in a suspected terror attack. The incident follows another attack three weeks ago in which six people were stabbed – two fatally – in the town of Hadera, increasing pressure on the government to ensure internal security as the war with Hamas drags on.