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An Indian security personnel stands guard as women voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station during the Budgam Assembly constituency bypoll in Budgam district, Jammu and Kashmir, on November 11, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks
Local election test for India’s prime minister
The state of Bihar, population 174 million, is holding local legislative elections seen as a test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party, which is currently in power there. Local parties aligned with the opposition Congress party are posing a stiff challenge in an election focused on poverty alleviation (Bihar is India’s poorest state) and competing welfare schemes for female voters, who are now an important bloc. But with Modi under broader economic pressure from US tariffs and Russian oil sanctions, a loss in Bihar would be a bad omen. Adding to his woes, authorities are still seeking those responsible for a terrorist attack that killed 13 outside the historic Red Fort in Delhi yesterday.
Iraq’s election pits Washington against Tehran
Iraqis head to the polls today to vote for the country’s 329-member parliament, largely disillusioned over what they see as an election that will just be used to figure out how to divide the Middle East country’s oil reserves. That’s not the top concern for Iraqis: endemic corruption, inadequate services, and high unemployment are also leaving voters frustrated. The next Parliament will also have to contend with a delicate foreign policy balance: they must placate dozens of armed groups that have Iranian ties, while the US pressures them to dismantle these groups. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s party is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority.
Cambodia and Thailand suspend Trump-brokered peace deal
On Monday, Thailand suspended peace talks with Cambodia after two soldiers were killed by a landmine in disputed border territory. The two countries had been planning to start negotiations to release prisoners of war tomorrow, but that has now been called off. Cambodia denies laying new landmines – saying they are the remnants of three decades of war in the region. The two-week old Donald Trump-brokered peace agreement now hangs in the balance. The US president initiated the ceasefire by threatening to stop tariff negotiations if the conflict continued – will he intervene again to get it back on track?
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 22, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Canada’s government on the brink again, Far-right setback in the Netherlands, Iran’s capital city on the move?
Canada’s government could collapse next week
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s credibility took a serious hit after Ontario’s anti-tariff ad soured relations with US President Donald Trump and shut down trade talks. Elected in April on a promise to deliver a deal with Washington, Carney now faces a confidence vote on his first budget next Tuesday: if his minority government can’t get the votes to pass it, Canadians could be going to the polls again – that would make twice in one year.
Far right takes a hit in Dutch election
The center left D66 party and the far-right Freedom Party of anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders tied atop the Dutch elections, each winning 26 seats. The result was a triumph for D66, which picked up 17 seats. PVV, meanwhile, dropped 11. Wilders won the 2023 election, but two years of chaotic, unstable government followed. Because D66 edged out PVV in the vote tally, it has first crack at forming a government. Its success or failure will help answer a key question: does the election result show the limits of the far-right’s appeal, or is it a temporary setback in Wilders’ otherwise steady rise?
Iran’s president wants to move the capital
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to move the capital from bustling Tehran to a remote, sparsely populated province along the Gulf of Oman. Why? He says chronic water shortages can’t be solved and are hemming in the city’s growth. Experts say Iran lacks the money and infrastructure to make such a move right now, and that only a small fraction of people would relocate. Iran is currently suffering hyperinflation and a severe recession as the country's economy feels the pain of UN “snapback sanctions” that were implemented last month.September 28, 2025, Tehran, Iran: Iranian lawmakers participate in an open session of parliament. Iran has recalled its envoys to Britain, France, and Germany for consultations after the three countries.
Do additional sanctions on Iran make a difference now?
The European Union confirmed on Monday that it has reinstated sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following the United Nations’ decision over the weekend to reimpose its own penalties.
The move piles fresh punishment onto an economy already battered by a collapsing currency, soaring inflation and deficits, and chronic shortages of water and energy. Iran is also still reeling from the 12-day war in June, which included US airstrikes on its three main nuclear sites and a wave of Israeli attacks on sensitive government targets.
What’s in these sanctions? They reinstate bans on arms imports and on the transfer of dual-use technologies that could support a nuclear program. The measures also freeze the assets of individuals linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear efforts, impose travel bans on sanctioned officials, and authorize inspections of Iranian cargo, including oil shipments. All of this comes atop extensive financial sanctions that the US has imposed since 2018.
Why are they called “snapback” sanctions? They were previously lifted, as part of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the US, and Europe, on the condition that Iran continue to allow international inspection of its nuclear programs to ensure that they are for peaceful use. The US exited that deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions, but European partners continued some of its terms. After the war with Israel, Iran suspended access to inspectors, opening the way for these sanctions to automatically “snap back” into place.
Economic impact. The effects are already rippling out over Iran’s currency markets. The rial is now trading at more than a million per US dollar and fell another 4% on the black market on Saturday. That slide is eroding the purchasing power of the middle class and squeezing quality of life. Eurasia Group Iran expert Greg Brew described the sanctions’ practical impact as “largely symbolic and psychological,” warning that they will deepen public disillusionment by reducing prospects for diplomacy and long-promised sanctions relief.
“The impact of the last few years of sanctions has been to increase inequality in Iran,” says Brew. “More of the wealth and more of the power is moving upward, while the middle class has been squeezed and shrunk.”
Could that generate a fresh wave of protests? Possibly, as Iran has seen a number of economic-driven protests in recent years. But the political impact would likely be limited, in Brew’s view. "Iran has no organized political opposition,” he says, “There's really no locus around which the opposition can mobilize and the internal repressive apparatus is still as large and as powerful as it has always been, if not more."
Nuclear diplomacy stalled. The purpose of the sanctions is to pressure Iran to return to meeting its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires Tehran to forswear nuclear weapons development and accept international inspections.
"What we're looking at in the short term is Iran remaining within the NPT in name only," says Brew. Since the 12-day War, Iran has been skirting the treaty’s spirit by denying inspectors access to key facilities and refusing to clarify the status of its enriched uranium. The regime has made the decision to weather more sanctions rather than allow international inspections, underscoring the question: what, exactly, is going on at Iran’s nuclear facilities now?Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Modi to meet Xi, European bigwigs set to reimpose Iran sanctions, Egypt cracks down on influencers, & More
7: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend in Tianjin in what will be his first visit to China in seven years, a sign that tensions between the two massive countries are easing. Border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan have aggravated the relationship, but the US’s tariff policies appear to be pushing them closer.
30: The three most powerful European countries – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – have got the wheels moving on restoring sanctions on Iran that they had lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The action comes amid concerns that Tehran is expanding its nuclear arsenal again. The sanctions could retake effect within 30 days.
151: Egyptian authorities have been arresting TikTok influencers with millions of followers. One human rights organization has tracked 151 such people being charged in the past five years in connection with their TikTok videos – and the full number could be even higher. The arrests are part of a broader government effort to clamp down on speech they see as antithetical to the official definition of family values.
250: Seven US deportees arrived in Rwanda yesterday as a part of a deal the East African country has struck with the Trump administration to ultimately accept up to 250 deportees. It comes after Kigali made a similar deal with the United Kingdom in 2022.
3: Thailand’s Constitutional Court permanently removed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, dissolving her cabinet and deepening political turmoil in the country. She is the third of her family to be ousted from office, amid continued dominance by Thailand’s royalist-military establishment – despite her party taking electoral power from them in 2023.
Palestinians wait to receive food from a charity kitchen in Gaza City, on August 27, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump to talk Gaza plan, Niger’s anti-colonial crusade gives Russia an opening, Australia follows the money to Tehran
There is a US plan for Gaza
US President Donald Trump will convene a “large meeting” at the White House today to discuss a plan for managing Gaza once the war there ends. US special envoy Steve Witkoff even appeared to acknowledge that the US had a plan, adding that he hopes the war is resolved by the end of the year. The meeting comes as an inquest begins into Monday’s double Israeli strike on a hospital in Khan Younis that killed 20 people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “tragic mishap.”
Russia uses Niger to go nuclear on France and the West
Russia may be focused on its invasion of Ukraine, but that hasn’t stopped it from making other moves to weaken the West: Moscow has offered to build a nuclear power plant in Niger that could hurt parts of France’s nuclear industry. Niger, a uranium-rich nation in the Sahara Desert, has previously exported the metal to France for further refining, but the ruling military junta has been cutting ties with the former colonial power ever since overthrowing the government in 2023 – and Russia eyes an opportunity. The plan is fraught with challenges, though, and the plant may never come to fruition.
Australia identifies Iran funding to synagogue attackers
Australia is following the money in its investigation of the antisemitic attack on a Melbourne synagogue last year, with officials saying Wednesday that the funds that the alleged perpetrators received traced back to Iran. It’s possible that those charged didn’t even know Tehran was involved. This revelation comes after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Tuesday that Iran orchestrated this terrorist attack, as well as another in Sydney. Australia isn’t the only country probing the role of Iran’s government in carrying out terrorism: British and Swedish security forces have also warned that the Islamic Republic were attempting to use proxies to commit attacks in their countries.
A member of the M23 rebel group walks on the outskirts of Matanda in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, March 22, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Civilian killings in the DRC, Musk scraps plans for third party, Swedish church moves to altar-nate site, & More
140: Rwanda-backed rebels killed at least 140 civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in July, per Human Rights Watch, and the number could rise to 300. The two sides had seemed on the path to peace after signing a peace deal in the White House in June, but the killings suggest the conflict is far from settled.
30: Eemeli Peltonen, a 30-year-old Finnish Member of Parliament, passed away in the parliament building yesterday. It appears he died by suicide. The death of Peltonen, who was a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party, has shocked the country. He was one of the youngest politicians in the Finnish government.
79: A bus carrying Afghans who had been expelled from Iran crashed in western Afghanistan yesterday, killing 79 people. It was on its way from the border to the capital Kabul. Iran has deported hundreds of thousands of Afghans this year, in part over unsubstantiated claims that they were spying for the Israelis.
$290 million: So much for that third-party idea: Tesla owner Elon Musk is quietly shelving his own plan to fund a third party in the United States. Musk donated over $290 million to Republican campaigns ahead of the 2024 election, but had threatened to create a new party – and inject it with some of his cash – when Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. It seems he realized he had a mountain to climb.
672: Talk about a pilgrimage! A 133-year-old church in northern Sweden – all 672 tons of it – completed its two-day relocation today, after shifting three miles down the road in the village of Kiruna. Risk of ground subsidence forced the move – the town’s history of iron ore mining meant the church was no longer on terra firma. To achieve the move, the whole building was placed onto a giant trailer and hauled at a steady pace of roughly 550 yards per hour.The Pentagon is seeking more than $3.5 billion in emergency funding to replenish US weapons and equipment for Israel, following Iran’s large-scale April 2024 missile and drone attack.
Graphic Truth: Pentagon seeks billions to restock Israeli defenses
The Pentagon is seeking more than $3.5 billion in emergency funding to replenish US weapons and equipment for Israel, following Iran’s large-scale April 2024 missile and drone attack. The largest single request, about $1 billion, is for RTX’s Standard Missile interceptors which are used to shoot down ballistic missiles. Another $204 million is earmarked for Lockheed Martin’s THAAD interceptors, which destroy ballistic missiles at high altitudes. Funds for radar upkeep, vessel refurbishments, and munitions transport are also on the bill. The requests, drawing on Congress’s 2024 Israeli Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, underscore the steep costs of sustaining a heightened US military presence in the Middle East.
South Korea's former first lady Kim Keon Hee, wife of impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol, arrives at a court to attend a hearing to review her arrest warrant requested by special prosecutors at the Seoul Central District Court, in Seoul, South Korea August 12, 2025.
Hard Numbers: South Korea’s ex-first lady jailed, Mexico transfers cartel members to US, Europe threatens to re-sanction Iran, Poland rearms
800 million: South Korea sent Kim Keon Hee – the 52-year-old wife of former President Yoon Suk Yeol – to solitary confinement on Tuesday, after arresting her for stock manipulation, bribery, and election meddling. Prosecutors accused Kim of making over 800 million won ($580,000) by manipulating the stock price of local BMW dealer, Deutsch Motors. Her husband President Yoon was impeached and detained after he tried to impose martial law in December last year.
26: Mexican authorities extradited 26 suspected cartel members to the US, at the Department of Justice’s request on Tuesday. The move comes as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down on cartels and drug smuggling. A similar transfer of 29 prisoners was made last February.
3: The E3 – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – threatened to reimpose previous sanctions on Iran at the end of this month unless Iran agrees to restart negotiations over its nuclear program. US-Iran nuclear talks were previously suspended after Israel and the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June. Analysts observe that Iran faces some tough tradeoffs ahead.
$3.8 billion: Poland – which borders both Russia and Belarus – signed a $3.8 billion deal with the US on Wednesday to modernize its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. The deal is part of a broader rearmament push in the country, which was launched after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.