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Demonstrators display images of Mahsa Amini, who died in policy custody in Tehran in Sept. 2022.
Viewpoint: Iran braces for anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death
This Saturday marks one year since Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of Iran’s morality police sparked months of protests, and the authorities are taking steps to prevent another massive outbreak of unrest. They have preemptively arrested women’s rights activists, closed public spaces, and bolstered security forces in major cities. Yet public discontent continues to simmer in the Islamic Republic as ordinary people perceive a widening gulf between their hopes and concerns and the interests of the country’s clerical regime.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Gregory Brew if he thinks the authorities will be able to keep a lid on tensions in the coming days.
Do you expect Iranians to take to the streets this weekend?
Anniversaries are important in Iran, particularly those marking the passing of major political figures. The death of the 22-year-old Amini became hugely important for millions of Iranians, both in Iran and among the Iranian global diaspora, so there are bound to be demonstrations to mark the anniversary. They’re unlikely to be very large, however. The regime has been taking steps to deter new protests. Ordinary Iranians are reluctant to take to the streets since the crackdown last year, which saw security forces killing hundreds of protestors while wounding and arresting thousands more. Several high-profile trials and executions of arrested protestors hammered home the repressive message. The legacy of that crackdown will deter people from coming out in large numbers. But there’s sure to be some fireworks, both on 16 September and in subsequent days.
Did last year's protests achieve anything?
It’s true the protests were unsuccessful in forcing political change. Hardliners, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, still dominate the system. But it would be wrong to say the protests didn’t have an impact. They revealed the depths of dissatisfaction with the regime and galvanized opposition to hijab rules that require women to wear headscarves in public. So, while they may not have changed the system, the protests made it abundantly clear that ordinary Iranians are fed up with the status quo and are more willing to defy the government.
What is the status of the hijab issue today?
Hijab rules represent the government’s commitment to enforcing a strict form of Islamic law that many Iranians do not subscribe to. So, they’ve always been a source of controversy. Since the protests, the issue has been one of the most salient in Iran’s domestic politics. The government initially eased off enforcing these rules and adopted a carrot-and-stick approach: As the security forces cracked down on demonstrators, they looked the other way when it came to hijab infractions. Though this helped the government avoid more unrest, it left Iran’s hardliner leadership with a huge problem. Millions of Iranian women now see the hijab as a matter of personal choice, rather than state mandate. Non-compliance is commonplace.
Yet the government cannot permanently retreat on the hijab, a key pillar of its ideology. So, in the last few months, there has been a gradual crackdown: The morality police have returned, women are monitored for infractions, and a sweeping new hijab law is set to take effect next year. But ordinary Iranians are likely to resist this enforcement. There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.
How will these developments affect next year’s elections?
While Iran’s political system is authoritarian, Iranian elections have historically featured high turnout and vigorous participation. That changed in 2020-2021, however, as authorities barred reformists and moderates from participating, clearing the way for hardliner dominance. The result has been a decline in participation. Most Iranians now regard the country’s elections as a sham.
Iran’s leaders want higher participation in elections, since they provide a basis for the government’s claim to legitimacy. But the authorities won’t risk allowing reformists to compete, since doing so could threaten their own position. So, the odds of a more open, permissive election are pretty low. Iranians are unlikely to return to the polls if their only options are more hardliners.
Given broad dissatisfaction and frequent bouts of unrest, is the status quo sustainable?
It’s clear that a majority of Iranians are dissatisfied – corruption, inflation, the effects of climate change, and general oppression all feed into this sentiment. The leadership isn’t capable of solving these problems. That means that it will have to rely on suppressing dissent to remain in power. That’s not sustainable.
The Islamic Republic has a vast capacity for oppression. It has proven, time and again, that it is comfortable killing its own people in large numbers. That explains why there’s been little appetite to return to the streets: Why risk injury, arrest, and possible death if the chances of political change are so small?
That said, it’s important not to lose perspective. Changes to Iran’s political system are possible, particularly in the event of a shift in leadership at the top. Khamenei’s death, which could happen at any time, will lead to a succession crisis that could create space for changes, and possibly reforms, within the system. The Islamic Republic appears resilient, but there are numerous cracks in the façade. And just as the regime has shown its resilience, so too have the Iranian people illustrated a tenacious interest in securing greater freedoms. That’s a struggle that will persist long after the anniversary of Amini’s death.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Iran’s leaders are asking for trouble
It’s impossible to predict when and where a wildfire will begin, but it’s easy to know when the ground is dry. In today’s Iran, the ground is ominously dry.
On the surface, social tensions have subsided since the height of nationwide protests over last autumn’s death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for violating rules governing the hijab, or headscarf, which Iranian women are required to wear in public. A combination of mass arrests and executions, some of them public, have moved most protesters off the streets in recent weeks.
But Iran’s conservative government now sees that it’s much easier to use tried-and-true methods to beat back demonstrators than to force all women and girls to wear the hijab in public. After all, many are simply ignoring the rules.
So, authorities have authored a new law and are using new tactics. Women who flout the state’s dress code can be kept out of school and denied services. Businesses that welcome them can be fined or shut down. Last month, cameras were installed in many city streets to boost enforcement. The next ugly confrontation ending in violence and public fury is all but inevitable.
Public frustration in Iran extends well beyond a repressive dress code. Adding fuel to the Mahsa Amini protests is an economy in terrible shape, thanks in part to Western sanctions and partly to Iran’s own policy incompetence. Inflation is probably still running well above 40%, though Iran’s government stopped publishing inflation stats two months ago. Iran’s currency is now at a record low against the dollar. The unemployment rate tops 10%. A return to the nuclear deal could slowly lift US and European sanctions, but Iran’s willingness to supply Russia’s military with drones used to attack Ukraine signals its government’s determination to reject Western terms.
If you live in Iran, it’s natural to wonder whether change is even possible. The economy has limped along for decades. The cycle of protest and repression continues. The choices available to Iran’s voters narrow further at each election.
Yet, with each passing year, the percentage of Iranians old enough to remember the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the forces that inspired it grows smaller. And each passing year brings Iran closer to the day when current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an 84-year-old cancer survivor sometimes rumored to be in poor health, will die. Only once has supreme power passed from one set of hands to another in the Islamic Republic’s history – and that was 34 years ago. Everyone with access to power and wealth within the regime must wonder what succession means for their futures and their families, and they must live with uncertainty.
With all these anxieties in mind, further disruption appears unavoidable.Open defiance will again meet determined repression. The Islamic Republic’s elite don’t want to back down on headscarves, and they fear, perhaps rightly, that concessions in one area would only ignite public demand for more. But the ground in Iran is dry, and the striking of matches there should have the world’s attention.A general view as North Korea fired two missiles from a submarine at an underwater target at an undisclosed location in North Korea March 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: North Korea goes ballistic about “puppets”, Iran pardons protesters, Lula sacks soldiers, Freddy ravages Southern Africa
2: In response to new military drills by “the US imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces,” North Korea on Monday announced it had tested two new cruise missiles, which it says it plans to fit with nuclear warheads.
22,000: Iran on Monday pardoned 22,000 people arrested for participating in the wave of protests that erupted last fall over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman arrested for not wearing a headscarf. Is this a sign that pressure from the streets is forcing the regime to moderate or, conversely, that the Supreme Leader now feels comfortable enough to show some mercy without risking a fresh wave of protests?
100: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has ousted more than 100 military men who were serving in key government posts, replacing them with civilians. The move is part of Lula’s efforts — in the wake of the Jan. 8 riots — to establish firmer control over the armed forces, where there is a lot of sympathy for his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.
99: Cyclone Freddy, one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, continues to cut a path of destruction through Southern Africa, where it has so far killed more than 99 people in Malawi and Mozambique.The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina.
What We're Watching: US-China balloon fallout, Iranian "amnesty"
As US shoots down Chinese spy balloon, China cries foul
If we'd told you a week ago that the recent US-China thaw would be upended by X, you'd have probably guessed X had something to do with Taiwan, US semiconductor export controls, or perhaps China's covert profiteering from Russia's war in Ukraine. Nope. It was all over ... a balloon.
On Sunday, Beijing issued a strongly worded statement a day after US fighter jets shot down a Chinese spy balloon that entered American airspace last week. President Joe Biden waited until the balloon was over water just off the South Carolina coast to authorize the operation – officially to avoid putting US civilians and infrastructure at risk and perhaps to respond to pressure from Republicans who'd chided him for not shooting it down earlier.
The discovery of the snoop balloon made US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancel his weekend trip to Beijing, which would have been the first by a top US diplomat in five years. And Biden’s decision to shoot it down throws a wrench into a US-China rapprochement that had been in the works since Biden and Xi Jinping had a nicer-than-expected chat at the G-20 summit in Bali last November. While certainly weird, this doesn't seem like a crisis that can't be overcome.
Why? For one thing, it's not in China's interest to escalate further over such a bizarre incident, which was, if we believe Beijing’s official explanation, accidental as the balloon veered off course due to strong winds. For another, if Xi was testing the US president to see how he’d respond, now he knows.
Still, the aerial drama does raise the stakes for future misunderstandings, miscalculations, and overreactions coming from both sides. As China expert Michael Hirson explains in this Twitter thread, it’s “simultaneously amusing and worrying because that’s the stage of the US-China relationship we’ve entered: absurd and also dangerous. Dr. Strangelove isn't here yet, but he's knocking."
Khamenei's (non) amnesty for Iranian protesters
To mark the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution on Sunday, Iran’s supreme leader reportedly pardoned and reduced the sentences of "tens of thousands" of people — including some arrested in ongoing anti-government protests that started last September. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for the first time acknowledged the scale of the demonstrations against the regime, perhaps the largest since the mullahs came to power. But just as there were big caveats to the supposed review of the country’s headscarf law two months ago, the same is true with the regime's "clemency": It excludes all dual nationals, Iranians convicted of the most serious offenses, and those accused of lesser crimes who refuse to admit and express regret. So most detainees will continue languishing in jail as they await trial. (Human rights groups say some 20,000 people have been arrested so far, four have been executed by hanging, and around 100 are on death row.) With his announcement, Khamenei is showing anything but mercy to those calling for the end of the regime.Then and Now: Iran’s public trials, Somalia’s new cabinet, El Salvador’s state of emergency
Three Months ago: Islamic Republic announces (sham) public trials
Media attention may have subsided, but protesters in Iran remain unbowed four months after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini – she was arrested by the Islamic Republic’s “morality police” three days before her death – set off something resembling a revolution. Three months ago, we wrote that the mullahs who rule the country with an iron fist had announced the public trial of around 1,000 Iranians for participating in anti-regime demonstrations. Since then, at least four men have been publicly hanged: Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, 39, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, 22, a karate champ, Majid Reza Rahnavard, 23, a store worker, and Mohsen Shekari, 23, a barista. They were each accused of killing a member of the Basij paramilitary, a ruthless volunteer force that operates under the draconian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp – though rights groups say their confessions were coerced under torture.
What’s more, these death sentences were doled out by a small group of radical judges in “sham trials.” At least 17 others have been handed down death sentences, but several have been stalled due to appeals. (This is likely a gross undercount as the Islamic Republic isn’t known for transparency.) A whopping 19,500 people have been arrested since September for taking part in demonstrations, which are still ongoing but smaller. The Islamic Republic was hoping that images of hanged men dangling from cranes would scare protesters into submission, but as one protester told The Guardian, they’ve simply made people more furious, noting that “they’ve created this fire under the ashes.”
Six months ago: Somalia’s government recruits former al-Shabab chief to fight … al-Shabab
When appointing a new cabinet last summer, Somalia’s PM did something unheard of: He tapped Mukhtar Robow, a former al-Shabab spokesperson who trained with al-Qaida in Afghanistan and once had a $5 million bounty on his head – as the new religious affairs minister. The aim was for Robow, who broke ranks with the radical Sunni group in 2017, to help the government encourage additional al-Shabab defectors as part of its bid to wage “total war” against the militant group. So, how’s that plan going? Al-Shabab has continued to wreak havoc on the country, including a recent attack on a Somali military base that killed 11 soldiers as well as a deadly attack on a Mogadishu hotel frequented by lawmakers in Nov. 2022. Crucially, the US-backed government has also made some gains in pushing the group out of urban areas in central Somalia. And in recent days, US ground troops killed Bilal al-Sudani, the Islamic State’s point person in Somalia. While ISIS is less potent in Somalia than the al-Qaida-aligned al-Shabab, the fact that President Joe Biden greenlit this ground operation reinforces that Washington is deeply concerned about Somalia exporting terrorism throughout the region. Meanwhile, Somali troops recently captured Harardhere, a port town and major supply route for the terror organization, as well as the nearby town of Galcad. In recent days the US carried out airstrikes northeast of Mogadishu that killed 30 combatants. Indeed, these are significant gains, but much of the campaign’s future successes will be contingent upon the government’s ability to cooperate with clan militias around the country.
Nine months ago: Will El Salvador’s strongman remain popular?
Last April, we wrote about El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s bid to address the gang-ridden country’s out-of-control crime rate. It’s been nine months since Bukele, a millennial and former political outsider, enforced a state of emergency that gave him extraordinary powers to crack down on the country’s roughly 70,000 gang members. At the time, Bukele’s approval rating was sky-high, but citizens accustomed to democratic proceedings don’t typically take well to curbs on their rights. Nine months later, Bukele’s approval rating hovers around … 83%. Despite the fact that he’s rounded up and jailed nearly 2% of the entire adult population, resulting in at least 90 in-custody deaths, support for his state of emergency remains widespread. What’s more, a new Human Rights Watch report, based on a leaked government database, suggests that children have also been rounded up as part of this tough-on-crime spree, while prisons remain dangerously overcrowded. Some 100,000 have been arrested as part of his campaign, which includes suspending the right to be informed why they were detained and the right to legal counsel, and Salvadorans still want more Bukele! That’s in large part because his plan is working: According to government data, El Salvador’s homicide rate reportedly declined by a staggering 56.8% in 2022. Human rights groups have criticized Bukele’s government, but Salvadorans say they care more about security. This bodes well for Bukele, who should cruise to reelection in 2024.
In Davos, Iranian protesters demand IRGC to be declared "terrorist"
While I’ve read reports of protesters in the vicinity of the 2023 World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland I haven’t witnessed any activity near the Congress Center itself. That’s what made this demonstration stand out for me and why I wanted to speak to the participants.
A small group of Iranians, some of whom told me they had family members executed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, had created a memorial in an open courtyard on the promenade. It was filled with poster-sized photos of men and women who have been killed by the regime since widespread protests began last September, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini. She died in police custody after being arrested by Iran’s morality police for improperly wearing her headscarf.
I spoke to two organizers who conveyed that their mission was to have world leaders declare the IRGC a terrorist organization. They had come to Davos in the hopes of getting attention from the international delegations present here this week.
While they haven’t yet gotten any direct response from the WEF, Iran has been in focus on both the main stage and the sidelines this week. The Forum presented a panel on the future of women in Iran featuring actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi alongside Masih Alinejad, who appeared as a guest on our program GZERO World last fall after the protests started.
Also, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made headlines Tuesday when she told reporters here in Davos she would support listing the IRGC as a terrorist organization, which would criminalize membership in the organization. She said Iran’s regime is “trampling over fundamental human rights.”
Commuters ride a subway train during the morning rush hour in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: China’s open door, sticky US border policy, Iran’s “mercy” deficit, Kosovo’s creeping crisis, Nepal’s “Terrible” new top dog
China’s COVID opening worries the neighbors
China’s National Health Commission announced on Monday that beginning January 8, travelers entering China will no longer be required to quarantine for eight days. Hong Kong followed the mainland by similarly relaxing testing requirements for international arrivals. It’s the latest signal that China has abandoned its zero-COVID lockdown-intensive policy, despite evidence the virus is now sweeping through a country where millions remain unvaccinated and even larger numbers have been jabbed only with less effective Chinese-made vaccines. An announcement last week that China will change the way it counts COVID deaths had led to anxiety elsewhere that Beijing has decided it can no longer contain new infections, that the economic cost of its zero-COVID approach is too high, and that it will now hide the true number of infections and deaths across the country to weather domestic and international criticism of its handling of the virus. This worry will feed the fear that much higher rates of transmission across this country of 1.4 billion people will help the virus mutate, spawning new variants that again infect people around the world. It’s no wonder then that Japan’s government has announced that, beginning Friday, it will tighten border controls for all travelers entering Japan from China, while the US is also mulling restrictions for Chinese arrivals.
SCOTUS: Title 42 stays … for now
The legal rigmarole surrounding Title 42 will continue after the US Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision on Tuesday that the Trump-era law can remain in place while appeals make their way through the courts. Quick recap: Title 42 was invoked by the Trump administration in 2020 and allows the US to expel migrants without processing their asylum applications on public health grounds. The highest court in the land agreed to take up the legal appeal being pushed by GOP-led states when it resumes hearing arguments in February 2023. The court’s three liberal justices ruled against the measure, as did Trump-appointed Justice Neil Gorsuch, who dissented on the grounds that “the current border crisis is not a COVID crisis.” The Biden administration, for its part, is likely not too displeased with the ruling. After all, it helps avoids an influx of migrants at the southern border, and Biden can appease progressives with the fact that he tried to ditch a policy many of them deem discriminatory. For now, asylum-seekers will continue to be deported without having their claims heard.
“No mercy” in Iran
The anti-government protests that have now rocked Iran for more than 100 days, the most intense since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, show no sign of abating, and Iran’s leaders show no sign of softening their response to them. On Tuesday, Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s president, announced that his government will show “no mercy toward those who are hostile” toward their government’s right to rule. International rights groups estimate that more than 500 people have been killed since protests began. An estimated 18,400 have been arrested. Two have been executed, and nine others have so far been sentenced to death. The protests began after a young Kurdish Iranian woman was arrested by morality police for violating a regime-enforced dress code and died in custody. As they have following large-scale protests in the past, Iranian officials accuse foreign governments of feeding the unrest.
Kosovo crisis escalates
Serbia has placed its military on high alert amid rising tensions between ethnic Serbs and the government in neighboring Albanian-majority Kosovo. Meanwhile, ongoing protests on Wednesday prompted Kosovo to shut its main border crossing with Serbia. The center of the action is the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, in northern Kosovo. Earlier this year, Serbs there refused to adopt Kosovo license plates and set up barricades to keep Kosovar authorities out of their areas. In recent weeks, things have gotten worse with more roadblocks and exchanges of gunfire between Mitrovica Serbs and local police. Kosovo’s government says Serbia, with backing from its friends in Moscow, is deliberately stirring up trouble in the country. Belgrade says it’s merely protecting its ethnic kin across the border. The background? Serbs consider Kosovo their historical heartland, but for centuries the region has been populated chiefly by Albanians who consider it home. In 2008, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia after surviving a brutal 1998-1999 assault by Belgrade. The US and most Western European countries recognize that independence, but a number of countries, including Brazil, China, India, and Russia, do not. The EU has, as usual, called for an elusive calm. No one in Belgrade or Mitrovica seems to be listening.
Nepal’s “Terrible” new Prime Minister
Following a fierce scrum of politicking in the wake of November’s election, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a former Maoist guerrilla, has been appointed Nepal’s prime minister. Dahal — who still goes by his nom de guerre Prachanda, meaning “terrible” or “fierce” — led an insurgency that overthrew the country’s Hindu monarchy 15 years ago. At the time, the establishment of a republic sowed hopes for opportunity and change in one of Asia’s poorest countries. But after seeing 13 governments in the past 14 years, many Nepalese aren’t optimistic about Prachanda’s ability to move the country forward — he has already been PM twice himself. Outside of Nepal, Prachanda will find himself enmeshed in a growing struggle for influence between Nepal’s traditional partners in India, a China that is trying to curry favor by investing in infrastructure, and the US, which has tried to blunt Beijing’s advance with its own recent $500 million investment pledge.
Women rising up against Iran's regime: journalist and activist Masih Alinejad
Iran is facing the biggest uprising Iran since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly. Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, a sworn enemy of the Supreme Leader; it's widely believed that Iranian spies have tried to kidnap and assassinate her in New York.
From Alinejad's perspective, for the first time in Iran's history, people are setting aside long-held sectarian divisions — including toward minority Kurd and coming together to protest the regime.
And many even cheered the national soccer team's elimination at the World Cup because some players were seen as puppets of the regime.
She has a clear message to the West: If you want to help, don't go back to the 2015 nuclear deal and let Iranians bring about regime change on their own.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: "Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime" on December 12, 2022.
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