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A supporter of Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is holding up an electoral poster while participating in a ceremony with Pezeshkian's presence at the Khomeini (Iran's Late Leader) shrine in southern Tehran, Iran, on July 6, 2024. Former reformist Member of Parliament, Masoud Pezeshkian, is being elected as the new President of Iran.
Will President-elect Pezeshkian reform Iran?
Iran’s incoming president is 69-year-old heart surgeon and former Health Minister Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate who has called for “constructive interaction with the world.”
Pezeshkian defeated hardline conservative Saeed Jalili in Friday’s runoff election, which saw a historically low turnout of just under 50%, though the second round attracted more voters than the first. He promised to ease Iran’s compulsory hijab laws and internet censorship, as well as revive talks over the 2015 nuclear deal to lift crippling economic sanctions.
Global Reaction. A number of world leaders, including those of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India formally congratulated Pezeshkian. The US State Department remains skeptical, however, stating that Iran’s elections were “not free or fair” and that Washington has “no expectation these elections will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect for the human rights of its citizens.”
Could Pezeshkian bring real reform? His room to maneuver is limited by the conservative Iranian establishment, which invests all true power in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Guardian Council, and ultimately Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
On foreign policy, Eurasia Group Middle East Analyst Gregory Brew foresees little change. “Iran’s strategic stance and its approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict is unlikely to shift as a result of this election. Pezeshkian will pursue nuclear negotiations with the US, though substantive progress is unlikely before the US election.”Presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a campaign event in Tehran, Iran, June 19, 2024.
What are the chances of a “reformist” leading Iran?
Iranians head to the polls on Friday to vote in a surprisingly competitive election that could see a reformist and more West-friendly candidate assume the presidency. The election season began in June when the Guardian Council approved six candidates in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, but now only four remain, with three front-runners: conservative hardliners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
The regime now wants Qalibaf or Jalili to bow out so as not to split the conservative vote, which would benefit Pezeshkian, who appears to be leading. But neither man is willing to step down. The polls favor Jalili, while Qalibaf, a former military officer, has the backing of the influential IRGC, highlighting the deepening factionalism within the conservative regime.
The divided conservative vote could very well result in Friday’s election failing to produce a clear winner, which would lead to a runoff, likely between Pezeshkian and a conservative.
What could most impact the vote? High voter turnout is key to Pezeshkian prevailing, but amid rising voter apathy, turnout is expected to be about 50%. In past elections, conservative voters have gone to the polls in mass numbers to rally behind their candidate, whereas reformist and disillusioned Iranians, Pezeshkian’s voter base, usually stay home in protest.
What would a Pezeshkian-led Iran look like? Likely not very different. Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew says that even if Pezeshkian wins, “The parliament, judiciary, military, and other parts of the regime will still be dominated by hard-liners — in that sense, Friday's election or next week’s runoff won’t change much.”
A cleric who supports the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is sitting next to an Iranian flag during a rally to mark the 45th anniversary of the victory of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution on Azadi (Freedom) Avenue in western Tehran, Iran, on February 11, 2024.
It’s election season in Iran
Campaigning for Iran’s legislative election officially got underway on Thursday, with over 15,000 candidates vying for a seat. But will ordinary folks bother going to the polls on March 1?
The 2020 election saw Iran’s lowest-ever turnout of 42%, and higher ups in Tehran are worried about an even more embarrassing figure next month. The regime’s legitimacy has suffered so much, according to Eurasia Group Iran expert Greg Brew, that there’s talk of straight-up fudging the numbers, which has not been common practice until now.
But given that election authorities sidelined all but a handful of reformist politicians – not to mention the violent crackdown on protesters in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s death – many voters are likely to stay home to express their discontent.
The real question: Who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the real center of power, who’s now 84 years old? There’s no clear answer, but Brew says the establishment’s goal in these elections is “to maintain hardliner control over the key aspects of government to create as much consistency as possible, so that when a succession crisis happens it can be handled with a minimum of disruption.”