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Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, speaks in Paraskoviivka, Ukraine, in this still image from an undated video released on March 3.
What We’re Watching: Prigozhin’s precarious position, Israeli reservists vs. Bibi, Iran seeks schoolgirl poisoning culprits
The Russian warlord shaking his fist toward Moscow
Yevgeny Prigozhin is angry, and he wants the world to know about it. In a recent video that’s now making international news, the owner of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force fighting in Ukraine, complains his men are not receiving ammunition he personally requested from Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov, and that the reason might be “betrayal.” He speculates his men are being “set up” as scapegoats in case Russia loses the war. Whatever the truth, Russian public infighting over the war looks to be intensifying. Russian forces have been “closing in” on Bakhmut for months, and Ukrainian troops still appear to be holding most of their ground. It may be a sign that Russia’s current advance won't accomplish much. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, “The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months.” Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to gear up for an expected counteroffensive in the coming weeks as Russian forces are depleted and new weapons arrive in Ukrainian hands from Western allies.
Israel’s ‘Mr. Security’ antagonizes the military
There’s growing fear of a trickle-down effect after a group of army reservists opposed to the Netanyahu government’s proposed judicial overhaul said they would boycott training exercises later this week. On Sunday, 37 out of 40 pilots from the Israeli Air Force’s 69th Squadron – responsible for operating the advanced F-15I fighter jets (used in the past to conduct surgical hits on strategic targets inside Syria and Iran) – said that they won’t report for training due to the government's attempt to dilute the power of Israel’s independent judiciary. Crucially, they will report for duty if their service is needed, the group said, though analysts point out that training is crucial to the upkeep of this unit. While some military members have voiced opposition to the government’s judicial play, this move represents the most high-profile defection to date. What’s more, there have been reports that mid-tier pilots currently on active duty might also refuse to serve, which would have significant implications for Israel’s security posture. But PM Benjamin Netanyahu, likely facing pressure from his far-right coalition partners, doesn’t seem keen to lower the temperature, saying on Monday that “conscientious objectors threaten the foundation of our democracy.” Indeed, Netanyahu has long positioned himself as “Mr. Security,” but that’s going to be increasingly hard to do as he picks a fight with swaths of the military.
Who’s behind chemical attacks on Iranian schoolgirls?
The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Monday finally addressed the spate of chemical attacks that has hospitalized more than 1,000 Iranian schoolgirls since late November. After reports that schools in 21 of Iran’s 30 provinces have been hit, he said the perpetrators must face the “harshest punishment,” while the country's top judicial officer said those responsible would face the death penalty. But who’s behind the attacks? Several government ministers have suggested that radical Islamists opposed to girls’ education are responsible for the poisonings that have sent girls to hospital with symptoms of nausea and vomiting, while others have suggested that the regime could be targeting the girls as a reprisal for the cohort’s participation in recent anti-government protests. Still, the regime has been broadly criticized for failing to address the issue sooner. Meanwhile, parents of poisoned girls protesting in Tehran were beaten by security officials, according to footage shared on social media.
Women rising up against Iran's regime: journalist and activist Masih Alinejad
Iran is facing the biggest uprising Iran since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly. Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, a sworn enemy of the Supreme Leader; it's widely believed that Iranian spies have tried to kidnap and assassinate her in New York.
From Alinejad's perspective, for the first time in Iran's history, people are setting aside long-held sectarian divisions — including toward minority Kurd and coming together to protest the regime.
And many even cheered the national soccer team's elimination at the World Cup because some players were seen as puppets of the regime.
She has a clear message to the West: If you want to help, don't go back to the 2015 nuclear deal and let Iranians bring about regime change on their own.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: "Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime" on December 12, 2022.
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Iranian activists want the West to stop legitimizing Iran's regime
French President Emmanuel Macron recently got flak for shaking the hand of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi. In part to smooth things over, Macron agreed to meet with dissidents — including journalist and activist Masih Alinejad.
Her message to him and the West in general? Recall your ambassadors from Iran and don't return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
"The only thing can make [the regime] survive [is] the US government and its allies to get back to the deal," Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And let Iranian's take care of the regime change.
"We, the people of Iran, are doing this and I want them to recognize this revolution and stop legitimizing one of the most barbaric regime," she says. "Is that too much to ask?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Iran's people vs. hardline rulers
Woman. Life. Freedom.
Those three words have filled the streets of Iran since the women-led protests agains the regime erupted last September.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly.
Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed. It's the biggest uprising Iran has seen since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Until recently, there seemed to be an opening for political reform on women in Iran.
But those hopes were dashed in 2021, when the the Supreme Leader's handpicked candidate won the presidential "election".
It's hard to say what'll happen next, although the regime will likely hang on. But even if the protesters do succeed, it's unclear what "winning" will mean. Or what cost it will exact.