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Residents of south Lebanon, who were displaced during the war, tried to return to their villages still occupied by Israel despite the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire implementation period. These Lebanese Muslim Shiite women inspect their destroyed house in the southern Lebanese border village of Ayta ash-Shaab after returning to their devastated hamlet.
Refugee returns begin after Trump suggests Gaza exodus
Hostilities continued on Sunday in southern Lebanon, where more than 22 Lebanese civilians were killed and over 124 wounded by Israeli forces, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Officials say that displaced residents were attempting to return home in defiance of military orders and that the Israeli military was “procrastinating” on withdrawing from the area, despite a deadline for them to do so having passed on Sunday.
Israel had also stopped thousands of Palestinians from returning to Gaza after accusing Hamas of changing the order of hostages released this week, in violation of the parties’ ceasefire agreement. Civilian Arbel Yehoud was supposed to have been freed before the four IDF soldiers were released on Saturday. But an agreement was reached early Monday to release Yehoud and two other hostages before Friday, ending the delay. In turn, Israel opened routes into north Gaza, allowing some 200,000 Palestinians to begin returning home. But they are returning to a world of destruction – nearly three-quarters of the buildings are destroyed or badly damaged in Gaza City alone.
Where should Gazans go during the rebuild? President Donald Trump’s suggestion Saturday that Palestinian refugees be transferred to Jordan and Egypt to “clean out” the territory while it undergoes reconstruction has been met with a hard “no” from Amman. On Sunday, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said his country’s rejection of any displacement of Palestinians is “firm and unwavering.” Hamas officials similarly refused the idea while Cairo has yet to comment. At the same time, Trump also announced that the US will resume shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which had been halted under the administration of President Joe Biden..
A view shows Israeli tanks near the border with Gaza, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, January 21, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire already in doubt
Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire get to phase two? After the initial exchange of hostages and prisoners this past weekend, there is growing skepticism, including from the White House, that the deal will hold.
“I’m not confident. It’s not our war, it’s their war,” President Donald Trumpsaid Monday.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to resign if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not break the ceasefire once the first 42-day phase is over and continue Israel’s efforts to eradicate Hamas. This comes on the heels of far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir and a couple of his colleagues quitting the cabinet over the “reckless” deal, leaving Netanyahu’s government dependent on the support of opposition leader Yair Lapid for its survival – for now.
While both Israel and the US say continued Hamas control of Gaza is a nonstarter, the reality is that despite 15 months of Israeli military operations, Hamas remainsfirmly in control of the territory. At Sunday’s exchange of three female hostages, dozens of Hamas fighters surrounded the Red Cross vehicles carrying the Israelis in a show of force. Despite the killing of leader Yahya Sinwar, the group’s exiled leadership reportedly remains functional, and Sinwar’s brother Mohammed has a greater role in the organization.
A second front? While hostilities have ceased in Gaza, on Tuesday Israel launched a “counterterrorism” operation in the occupied West Bank, killing nine and injuring dozens, according to Palestinian officials. Hamas leaders condemned the violence and called on Palestinians in the territory to increase their attacks on Israelis – something that could further jeopardize the fragile peace.
Released Doron Steinbrecher embraces loved ones at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, after being held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, on Jan. 19, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire goes into effect, and three hostages are set free
Following last-minute disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and the identities of the hostages to be released, the Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel went into effect on Sunday.
So far, three Israeli hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher — have been reunited with their families, ending 471 days in captivity following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. They were the first of the 33 hostages set to be released under the deal — and Israel has agreed to release 1,900 Palestinians from Israeli jails. As of early Monday local time, 90 Palestinian prisoners had already been freed.
Domestic political costs: On Sunday, Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvirresigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet to protest the ceasefire. He was joined by two other ministers from the far-right Jewish Power party. This leaves Netanyahu with only a slim governing majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Further defection could lead to the government's collapse.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem December 27, 2015.
Israeli cabinet meets to vote on Gaza ceasefire
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed on Friday that a Gaza ceasefire deal has been finalized following a “last-minute crisis," and the security cabinet is meeting now to ratify the agreement. Israeli warplanes, meanwhile, carried out dozens of missions in the Gaza Strip on Thursday that left at least 86 dead and dampened the jubilation many Palestinians felt when the ceasefire agreement was first announced.
What was the holdup? Two disagreements with Hamas supposedly caused the delay: One over the precise locations from which Israeli troops would withdraw and another over the identities of hostages due to be exchanged.
Hardliners in the cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, are expected to vote against the ceasefire but look unlikely to be able to stop it. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday he still expects the fighting to stop as scheduled on Sunday. On Friday, the names of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase were published, with the prime ministers office saying that they could begin being freed as early as Sunday, once the deal is ratified.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
The putative second and third phases of the ceasefire deal will need to be hashed out while the first is in progress, and the Israeli far right is eager to return to fighting. Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the deal goes through, and Smotrich has said he will withdraw if the ceasefire continues beyond the first phase. If they both leave, this could risk the collapse of Netanyahu's government.
“At the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, Netanyahu could face a dilemma in which he is forced to choose between holding his coalition together or maintaining the ceasefire to get more hostages released,” says Farzan Sabet, a Middle East consultant at Eurasia Group. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader would be “under pressure from much of the rest of the Israeli opposition and the public as well as incoming US President Donald Trump.”
How is the wider world reacting? Russia and China’s foreign ministries expressed hope that the ceasefire deal would lead to long-term peace, while British PM Keir Starmer described the deal as “very welcome.” Japan and South Korea both urged a swift implementation of the deal as well, while France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz specifically urged Hamas to release hostages.
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a beachfront cafe amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on January 14, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire seems tantalizingly close — how long could it last?
After months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas on Tuesday accepted a draft ceasefire agreement that could bring an end to the fighting in Gaza – at least temporarily – if Israel’s cabinet approves it. Negotiators believe an agreement could be reached before Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.
What’s in the deal? Hamas would release 33 of the roughly 94 remaining Israeli hostages — mostly women, children, and elderly or injured people — over six weeks in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned in Israel.
During this first phase, Israeli forces would pull out of urban areas and allow some 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day. The IDF would not pull out of Gaza entirely, however, and people attempting to return to their homes will find them largely demolished.
Then it gets tricky. The details of the second and third phases would need to be negotiated while the first phase is in progress — and Eurasia Group regional expert Greg Brew isn’t confident that the right incentives exist to find success.
“Hamas really has two sources of leverage,” he says. “The first is the hostages, and when they lose the hostages they lose any ability to influence Israeli action. The second is their continued ability to fight, and it is likely going to continue a low-level insurgency against Israel and any potential new government formed to govern Gaza.”
So why a deal? For Hamas, a respite from combat allows reorganization and rearmament. The outgoing Biden administration, meanwhile, is eager for a win before it leaves office — and it’s one Trump will surely claim even if it comes before his inauguration. Brew says the timing offers the incoming administration a fig leaf. “When the deal collapses, he can say, ‘Oh, there were flaws in place. This was a bad deal. It happened under Biden's watch.’”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu similarly gets to have his cake and eat it too by delivering the hostage releases voters have demanded without fully committing to end the war, which would infuriate his far-right coalition partners.
“Netanyahu gets everything,” says Brew. “He gets a deal that makes Trump happy, that delivers a win to the Israeli people, that quiets the opposition, and that strengthens his position.”
FILE PHOTO: Palestinian children walk past the rubble of houses, destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, January 7, 2025.
Trump deadline looms over Gaza peace talks
The war in Gaza took center stage Tuesday atPresident-elect Donald Trump’s second press conference since his election in November. Trump repeated earlier statements he made in December – which were applauded by Israel – that “if those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.” He didn’t elaborate.
WhileHamas and Israel have been in ceasefire discussions mediated by Qatar and Egypt, there has been little progress, with Hamas reiterating its demands to halt the war in exchange for any hostage deal.
Meanwhile, theUAE is spearheading discussions with the US and Israel to establish a provisional government for Gaza after the cessation of hostilities. One scenario would have the administration, security, and reconstruction of Gaza overseen by a group of nations including the UAE and the US, after Israel withdraws its forces and until a“reformed” Palestinian Authority is installed in the territory. It wouldalso include “an explicit commitment to the two-state solution” from Israel, and a “clear leadership role by the US.”
But officials involved said that the proposals were not fully fleshed out and had not been approved by any government. While the Palestinian Authority – helmed by Mahmoud Abbas for 20 years, as of this Thursday – has suggested an openness to reforms in years past, neither the PA nor Israel has issued a comment about the UAE’s proposal. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliament rejected the creation of an independent Palestinian state last July.
We’re watching whether Trump’s deadline spurs the parties to find a resolution – and what his vision of America’s post-war involvement would be.
On the left, sunbathers enjoy cooling off in the ocean at Geelong Beach on Saturday as temperatures soared in Victoria, Australia. On the right, Lucy Morris sleds in front of her home in the Schnitzelberg neighborhood of Louisville, KY, on Sunday.
Hard Numbers: Running hot and cold, Gaza dealings, Montenegro protests, Paying to get into New York
100: Israeli officials are wrangling with Hamas over a deal to return some hostages and secure a halt to fighting in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas claims Israel killed more than 100 people this weekend. Hamas says it has approved a list of 34 Israeli hostages to be released as part of a deal, but Israel says it has received no such list.
1,000s: Just days after 12 people were killed in a shooting in Cetinje, Montenegro’s historic capital, thousands took to the streets on Sunday to demand that the country’s security officials resign for failing to protect society. Demonstrations broke out hours after a 12-minute silence was held on Sunday to honor the victims of the tragedy, which stemmed from a bar brawl. Meanwhile, authorities have debuted a strict new gun law and other tough measures to reduce the number of illegal weapons in the 620,000-strong Balkan state.
9: The Big Apple wants drivers to show some green. As of Sunday, New York City became the first American city to charge car drivers a congestion fee of up to $9 daily. The toll zone covers Manhattan south of 60th Street — and the charges are meant to ease traffic, boost air quality, and raise $15 billion for New York’s transit system. But if President-elect Donald Trump and a powerful teachers union in the city get their way – they’ve vowed to fight it – the charge won’t be around for long.Relatives of Palestinians, who lost their lives following the Israeli attack on a makeshift displacement camp in Mawasi Khan Yunis, mourn as the bodies are brought to Nasser Hospital for burial process.
Hard Numbers: Israel strikes “safe zone,” Biden awards Jan. 6 committee, Gunman rampages in Montenegro, Can Giuliani save World Series rings?
37: At least 37 Palestinians died in Israeli airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, including at least 11 in the al-Mawasi district, which Israeli forces designated a “safe zone” last month. Despite assuring civilians they would not be targeted there, Israeli warplanes bombed a tent encampment for civilians whose homes had been destroyed earlier in the war.
2: President Joe Bidenawarded the nation’s highest civilian medal to Reps. Liz Cheney and Benny Thompson on Thursday for their efforts in leading the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack on Congress. Incoming President Donald Trump is less keen to honor them: He has said the two should be jailed for their roles after the committee’s report found he engaged in a conspiracy to overturn the lawful results of the 2020 election.
12: The Montenegrin town of Cetinje is reeling from the brutal murder of a dozen residents after a bar brawl escalated into a rampage on Wednesday. A 45-year-old man shot the bar’s owner, the owner’s family members, and then members of his own family before fleeing. He shot himself in the head after being surrounded by police.
148 million: Disgraced former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is attempting to prevent courts from taking his commemorative Yankees World Series rings as part of his $148 million penalty for defaming two former election workers in Georgia. He claims the four rings actually belong to his son and that they have a tradition of each wearing one on special Yankees occasions.