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FILE PHOTO: Palestinian children walk past the rubble of houses, destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, January 7, 2025.
Trump deadline looms over Gaza peace talks
The war in Gaza took center stage Tuesday atPresident-elect Donald Trump’s second press conference since his election in November. Trump repeated earlier statements he made in December – which were applauded by Israel – that “if those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.” He didn’t elaborate.
WhileHamas and Israel have been in ceasefire discussions mediated by Qatar and Egypt, there has been little progress, with Hamas reiterating its demands to halt the war in exchange for any hostage deal.
Meanwhile, theUAE is spearheading discussions with the US and Israel to establish a provisional government for Gaza after the cessation of hostilities. One scenario would have the administration, security, and reconstruction of Gaza overseen by a group of nations including the UAE and the US, after Israel withdraws its forces and until a“reformed” Palestinian Authority is installed in the territory. It wouldalso include “an explicit commitment to the two-state solution” from Israel, and a “clear leadership role by the US.”
But officials involved said that the proposals were not fully fleshed out and had not been approved by any government. While the Palestinian Authority – helmed by Mahmoud Abbas for 20 years, as of this Thursday – has suggested an openness to reforms in years past, neither the PA nor Israel has issued a comment about the UAE’s proposal. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliament rejected the creation of an independent Palestinian state last July.
We’re watching whether Trump’s deadline spurs the parties to find a resolution – and what his vision of America’s post-war involvement would be.
On the left, sunbathers enjoy cooling off in the ocean at Geelong Beach on Saturday as temperatures soared in Victoria, Australia. On the right, Lucy Morris sleds in front of her home in the Schnitzelberg neighborhood of Louisville, KY, on Sunday.
Hard Numbers: Running hot and cold, Gaza dealings, Montenegro protests, Paying to get into New York
100: Israeli officials are wrangling with Hamas over a deal to return some hostages and secure a halt to fighting in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas claims Israel killed more than 100 people this weekend. Hamas says it has approved a list of 34 Israeli hostages to be released as part of a deal, but Israel says it has received no such list.
1,000s: Just days after 12 people were killed in a shooting in Cetinje, Montenegro’s historic capital, thousands took to the streets on Sunday to demand that the country’s security officials resign for failing to protect society. Demonstrations broke out hours after a 12-minute silence was held on Sunday to honor the victims of the tragedy, which stemmed from a bar brawl. Meanwhile, authorities have debuted a strict new gun law and other tough measures to reduce the number of illegal weapons in the 620,000-strong Balkan state.
9: The Big Apple wants drivers to show some green. As of Sunday, New York City became the first American city to charge car drivers a congestion fee of up to $9 daily. The toll zone covers Manhattan south of 60th Street — and the charges are meant to ease traffic, boost air quality, and raise $15 billion for New York’s transit system. But if President-elect Donald Trump and a powerful teachers union in the city get their way – they’ve vowed to fight it – the charge won’t be around for long.Relatives of Palestinians, who lost their lives following the Israeli attack on a makeshift displacement camp in Mawasi Khan Yunis, mourn as the bodies are brought to Nasser Hospital for burial process.
Hard Numbers: Israel strikes “safe zone,” Biden awards Jan. 6 committee, Gunman rampages in Montenegro, Can Giuliani save World Series rings?
37: At least 37 Palestinians died in Israeli airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, including at least 11 in the al-Mawasi district, which Israeli forces designated a “safe zone” last month. Despite assuring civilians they would not be targeted there, Israeli warplanes bombed a tent encampment for civilians whose homes had been destroyed earlier in the war.
2: President Joe Bidenawarded the nation’s highest civilian medal to Reps. Liz Cheney and Benny Thompson on Thursday for their efforts in leading the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack on Congress. Incoming President Donald Trump is less keen to honor them: He has said the two should be jailed for their roles after the committee’s report found he engaged in a conspiracy to overturn the lawful results of the 2020 election.
12: The Montenegrin town of Cetinje is reeling from the brutal murder of a dozen residents after a bar brawl escalated into a rampage on Wednesday. A 45-year-old man shot the bar’s owner, the owner’s family members, and then members of his own family before fleeing. He shot himself in the head after being surrounded by police.
148 million: Disgraced former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is attempting to prevent courts from taking his commemorative Yankees World Series rings as part of his $148 million penalty for defaming two former election workers in Georgia. He claims the four rings actually belong to his son and that they have a tradition of each wearing one on special Yankees occasions.Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen, on Dec. 26, 2024.
Israel hits the Houthis: Is this the opening of a bigger campaign?
Israel on Thursday struck military sites and power infrastructure across parts of Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia.
The move is the latest in an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and the Iran-backed rebels who control most of Yemen and have launched several missiles and drones at Israel over the past week alone.
The Houthis pledged solidarity with Hamas in the days after the group’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and have attacked Israel directly as well as ships in the Red Sea since then.
Earlier this week, Israel threatened to kill the group’s leaders after a Houthi missile landed in a Tel Aviv playground.
Is this just a prelude? Israel in recent months has severely hobbled Iran’s other two main regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, killing the leaders of both groups. Is Israel gearing up for a bigger campaign against the last relatively unscathed part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”?A view is being seen of the northeast of Tehran at sunrise on August 17, 2012.
Iran’s energy crisis pushes economy to the breaking point
After weeks of increasingly severe blackouts caused by massive natural gas shortages in Iran, the state power company warned manufacturers on Friday that they need to brace for power cuts that could last weeks and cost billions of dollars. The government is facing a difficult choice between cutting fuel for power plants or for residential heating — and are taking the first option in a bid to keep a lid on public discontent.
Markets took small comfort, however, with the Iranian rial plummeting to 770,000 to the dollar, its lowest value ever. Ordinary Iranians spent most of last week not knowing whether they would be able to send their children to school or go to work themselves the next day, a situation which seems likely to continue.
Wait, doesn’t Iran have tons of natural gas? Yes, and generous subsidies for consumers to boot, which means the overwhelming majority of Iranians depend on — and arguably overconsume — natural gas for home heating and cooking. But even though the Islamic Republic sits on the world’s second-largest reserves, sanctions and international isolation have left its infrastructure and technology woefully inadequate to supply its own needs.
Iranian producers already burn off huge quantities of natural gas released in oil extraction because they lack the technology to collect it instead. And much of the natural gas Iran does extract is then exported to Turkey and Iraq, where it brings in much-needed hard currency.
The New York Times also reported on Saturday that Israeli strikes against two pipelines back in February forced Tehran to eat into reserves that it was unable to replenish over the summer.
Will the crisis reach a boiling point? With temperatures plunging as low as -20 C in many parts of the country, cuts to gas for domestic heating could put lives at risk. We’re watching for unrest, but keep in mind that hundreds of Iranians lost their lives and thousands more were arrested and abused by regime forces in 2022 and 2023 during the protests over the killing of Mahsa Amini. As long as the regime is willing to kill its own people in the streets, protest may be futile.
A look back at the Top Risks of 2024
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: As 2024 comes to a close, we always look back on our Top Risks. How we did at the beginning of the year. I back in January, referred to this as the "Voldemort of years," at least geopolitically. The year that must not be named because of three major conflicts that we expected were going to only get worse over the course of the year. The Russia-Ukraine war, the war in the Middle East, and the war between the United States and itself. Those absolutely played out.
First, the risk on Russia-Ukraine, where we said that Ukraine would effectively be partitioned. Not a popular thing to say back in January, and not something that we were hoping for. Just something that we believed was going to happen, even irrespective of how the US elections turned out. The fact that Ukrainians were going to be much more overstretched in the ability to fight. The fact that the Russians would be able to maintain the war machine, and the fact that the Europeans and the Americans were increasingly tiring of a war with lots of attention in other places.
All of that meant that Ukrainians would increasingly be desperate. And we really saw that in particular with this spectacular Ukrainian attack into Kursk taking Russian territory, but needing 40,000 of their troops to accomplish it away from their front lines. As the year comes to a close, Ukraine is losing territory faster than at any point since the beginning of the war. And they increasingly recognize not only that they need to start negotiations, but they're going to have to end up trading some land for peace and for security guarantees from the West. So indeed Ukraine today, de facto partitioned.
Number two, the war in the Middle East, which we believed was going to expand significantly. At the beginning of the year, we were talking about Gaza. Now of course, we're talking about the 'Axis of Resistance,' a year when in Yemen the Houthis were popping off rockets and missiles against civilian tanker traffic going through the Red Sea and also against the United States and other military assets in the region, and the Americans and others hitting them back. We saw the war open to include Hezbollah and Lebanon. We saw the war also threaten to bring Israel and Iran together directly as they exchanged fire against each other and as the Israelis were able to decimate Iran's proxies.
Some good news on this front. First of all, the fact that ultimately the United States, Israel, and most importantly, Iran, showed restraint and risk aversion in what would've been a much more devastating fight. And what would've led oil prices to go well over a hundred if that war broken out. That did not occur. And also the fact that the Israelis have been able to show military dominance, which meant that there is no more effective 'Axis of Resistance' at the end of this year. In fact, the big surprise that not only did the war expand, but Assad is gone. Not because of Obama who said that over 10 years ago, but rather because they were unable to respond to HTS supported by Turkey, a rebellion against Assad, and the Russians, and the Iranians. Assad's support base were inadequate to keep him in power. He now sits in Moscow.
And now finally, the US versus itself. A year of only more significant division and polarization inside my own country, the United States. And we've seen that play out. First of all with a Biden that was running for the presidency and had no capacity to serve for another four years, refused to step down, was finally essentially forced out, forced to step down by everyone around him, including former President Obama, former speaker Pelosi, and all of the rest. On the Trump side, two, not one, attempted assassinations, one by this much. And if that had occurred, we'd be in a hell of a lot more difficult position now as a country. The election did go off without a hitch, and was accepted as free and fair, thankfully. And now the United States looks forward to a new president. But the divisions inside the US, the weakening of America's political institutions only growing over the course of 2024.
So those were our top three risks. You can look at all 10, and see how we did go back and check it out on the link that we have here. And also take a look in early January. Watch out for our Top Risks of 2025. It will be something you do not want to miss.
- Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024 ›
- Why 2024 is the Voldemort of years ›
- 2024's top global risks: The trifecta of wars threatening global peace ›
- A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024 ›
- Ian Bremmer explains the 10 Top Risks of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Unpacking the biggest global threats of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts - GZERO Media ›
- Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order - GZERO Media ›
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday Israeli troops will continue to occupy Mount Hermon in Syria for the foreseeable future.
A mountain of tension: Israel plans to occupy Mount Hermon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday Israeli troops will continue to occupy Mount Hermon in Syria for the foreseeable future. After Bashar Assad’s regime collapsed at the hands of Syrian rebels two weeks ago, Israel took the opportunity to decimate their neighbor’s military infrastructure and take control of the strategically important peak.
Although the mountain overlooks the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with — believe it or not — an Israeli-operated ski resort further down its slopes, its summit was a demilitarized buffer zone separating Israel and Syria until two weeks ago.
Why does Israel want Mount Hermon? The Israeli government originally justified the encroachment to secure their own borders, but they may be tempted to stay on Syria’s highest peak because of its vantage point over Syria and Lebanon. Placing a radar on the high point would greatly strengthen Tel Aviv’s surveillance capabilities and early-warning capacities.
Netanyahu’s announcement follows his approval of a plan to expand Golan Heights settlements, a move that could double the area’s population and, Tel Aviv hopes, improve its defensive posture. Approximately 20,000 Druze, a small ethno-religious group, live on the Israeli-occupied portion of the heights. They have a history of strong support for Israel, and have advocated for the outright annexation of the area into Israel. We have our eye on how Syrian Druze react to the new government forming in Damascus.
However, the rest of Syria and the Middle East are not keen on Tel Aviv keeping command of the mountain. We will be watching to see whether Israel’s adversaries in the region take action — but at present the occupation seems a fait accompli
.
Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a house amid the Israel-Hamas conflict at the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on December 13, 2024.
A Gaza ceasefire within reach
This time, the hopes appear well-founded. Hamas, and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, have taken a beating. A number of leaders in both organizations have been killed, and with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Iran has lost the ability to resupply them with new weapons.
Haggling continues over the deal’s details, but it appears a ceasefire would unfold in stages. First, Hamas would release dozens of the Israeli civilians and female soldiers it still holds hostage, and Israel would remove troops from Gaza’s cities, its coastal highway, and the corridor at Gaza’s border with Egypt. In a second phase, Hamas would release its remaining hostages, and more Israeli troops would be withdrawn from Gaza. Finally, the details of a longer term ceasefire itself would then be set.
More than 100 Israeli hostages have already been freed, either through Israeli-Hamas bargaining or Israeli rescue operations. In total, Israeli officials believe another 62 hostages are still alive and that Hamas or associated groups hold at least 30 more bodies of hostages who died. TheUnited Nations reports that more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war.