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China replaces foreign minister Qin Gang
Is democracy dead in Israel? Will a fugitive decide Spain's next prime minister? What does Qin Gang's removal say about China? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is democracy dead in Israel?
No, not at all. It's very much alive. It's precisely the fact there has been such an extraordinary outcry among so many Israeli citizens and completely peaceful, mind you, over so many months because they're not happy with the efforts to reform, and by reform, I mean, undermine Israel's independent judiciary. The first piece of that that has passed in the last 24 hours is by itself certainly not a death knell for democracy, though it probably would allow Netanyahu to appoint cabinet members that could allow him to no longer face jeopardy from these corruption cases that have been against him. If they persist with the next couple of pieces of legislation that would allow the Knesset, the legislature, to overturn with a simple majority, a judicial decision, that would be a much more significant threat to democracy. We'll see how that plays out over the fall, but certainly this is going to impact the economy, society, and the rest.
Will a fugitive decide Spain's next prime minister?
No, what's happened is that Prime Minister Sanchez recognized that by calling early elections, he could make everybody worry about the far-right Vox party and that if they went down in the polls, there was a shot for him to stay on his PM. That has played out pretty well. The center-right in Spain has done much better, but they don't have enough votes to create a parliament because they don't have a majority and that's because Vox has fallen apart. They're talking about like, anti-woke politics at a time when everyone wants to talk about the economy and people increasingly worried about climate change. So, Vox got destroyed. What's probably going to happen is, can't get a majority and so you'll have to have yet another election. We'll play this out again in the fall.
Finally, what does Qin Gang's removal say about China?
This is the former, now former foreign minister, pretty clear he was going to be out. We haven't heard from him at all in four weeks. China said he was ill for a couple days then didn't. There've been all these rumors and scandals around him. And the reason I thought he was out is because Chinese state media was not trying to repress all of the social commentary about those rumors at any point in the last couple weeks. And given that he was a Xi Jinping direct appointee and skyrocketed and how fast he was able to get the appointment, it was pretty clear there were serious problems. But I don't think this changes foreign policy in China, one whit. I was talking to the US ambassador to the UN the other day, has been dealing with the Chinese ambassador all the way through and she's like, "Nah, he's still been engaging with me as he normally does," so it's bad news for him, but no change for Chinese policy.
- Israel’s divisive judicial reforms becoming law ›
- Netanyahu faces national unrest after judicial reform vote ›
- Who will govern Spain? ›
- Ahead of the Spanish election, the political pendulum is swinging right ›
- Hard Numbers: Britain seeks bricklayers, Pentagon loses secrets to a typo, Cameroon separatists attack, where has Qin Gang gone? ›
- Where is China's foreign minister? ›
Demonstrators are sprayed with water from a water cannon during a demonstration against the Israeli government's judicial overhaul in Jerusalem.
Israel’s divisive judicial reforms becoming law
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset (parliament) passed the first bill of PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reform bill.
Many Israelis were not happy about it. Police used a water cannon to disperse anti-government activists who had chained themselves outside the building, while President Isaac Herzog failed to negotiate a last-minute compromise. Banks, the influential tech sector, and part of the military have joined the protest against the divisive legislation.
Bibi was just released from the hospital, where on Sunday he underwent emergency pacemaker surgery after a heart-monitoring device detected a temporary arrhythmia. Before Netanyahu, 73, was briefly sedated, he temporarily handed power over to his top deputy, Justice Minister Yariv Levin.
Levin is considered the architect of the overhaul, which would curb the High Court’s power to overrule administrative decisions, including a nine-member committee that selects judges. Critics say the law would give the ruling far-right coalition carte blanche on court appointments, and enable Bibi to interfere with his ongoing corruption trial. (He denies this and insists the reforms are necessary to curb the powers of an activist judiciary.)
Popular opposition to the bill peaked over the weekend, as throngs of Israelis flooded the streets of Jerusalem for a 29th straight week of protests, some after marching for five days from Tel Aviv. A growing number of reservists say they will not report to duty if the reforms become law, and several former army top brass, police commissioners, and intelligence chiefs penned a public letter to Netanyahu, accusing him of being “directly responsible for the serious harm” to Israel’s security.
But Bibi is unlikely to cave to any pressure. He knows that his fragile coalition government is toast if he doesn’t push ahead with the reforms.People block a highway to Jerusalem on a day of disturbance to protest against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul.
A crucial vote on the judiciary in Israel
On Tuesday, Israelis opposed to the government's judicial overhaul blocked highways leading to the country's main cities as part of a national day of disturbance the day after the Knesset (parliament) passed the first part of a legislative package designed to dilute the power of the judiciary.
At the heart of the bill – which still needs two more parliamentary votes to pass – is the “reasonableness” clause. If enacted, the clause would prevent the High Court from overriding government decisions the judges deem to be unreasonable. This provision applies to administrative issues (like ministerial appointments) but not legislation.
This is a top legislative priority for the far-right government led by PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Consider that earlier this year, Israel’s High Court ruled that a senior member of the Netanyahu government could not serve in the cabinet because he had previously vowed to exit politics as part of a plea deal linked to corruption charges. While the court deemed the appointment a violation of the reasonable standard, the government said this move reflected the court’s activist streak.
Israelis have doubled down on protests in recent days, including in the halls of the Knesset. The last time this happened, the big labor unions joined in, causing Israel’s international airport to shutter for a day, and bringing Israel’s economy to a standstill. With his back against the wall, Netanyahu then called for a cooling-off period, putting the judicial overhaul on the back burner for several months.
But analysts say that the government would fall if Bibi drags his feet again, something the PM is loath to let happen. In the meantime, demonstrations, public disruption, and military holdouts are only getting more pronounced.
How Bibi could end Israel's democracy (or get ousted)
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has a chilling warning about the future of Israeli democracy: The government's judicial overhaul plan puts the very foundations of Israeli democracy at risk.
In an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, Barak explains that the reforms could erode the independence of the courts and weaken minority protections. Barak also accuses current PM Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu of hiding his true motives, describing his far-right coalition government as legal yet "illegitimate."
As protests continue across the country, Barak says that Bibi faces an uncomfortable choice: Push ahead and harm democracy, or pull back and likely lose his job.
The ex-PM, who was in uniform for 36 years, also shares personal stories of Israel's sacrifices. He urges others to give meaning to those who have paid the ultimate price.
- Netanyahu’s climbdown ›
- Israel’s judicial reforms: Here we go again ›
- Israel’s political crisis, explained ›
- Why Netanyahu relented to protests in Israel, but France's Macron didn't ›
- Ian Explains: Why Israel's judiciary reform is so controversial - GZERO Media ›
- Ehud Barak interview: Israeli democracy on the chopping block - GZERO Media ›
Israel's judicial reform could destroy democracy from within, says former PM Ehud Barak
For months, Israel has been embroiled in political turmoil over the government's plan to overhaul the judiciary. But how much of a risk are the reforms to Israeli democracy?
For former PM Ehud Barak, what current PM Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu and his far-right allies want to do will eliminate the last check on executive power in Israel. By that, he means the independence of the courts.
Barak tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World that a democracy like Israel should be capable of protecting itself from those who are using the tools the system offers "to destroy it from within."
No wonder, then, that roughly 5% of the country's population has taken to the streets to protest the overhaul. The scale has surprised Barak, a longtime Bibi critic. "I did not expect it to be so powerful and creative," he says.
Watch the interview in the upcoming episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on US public television nationwide. Check local listings.
- Israel’s judicial reforms: Here we go again ›
- Israel’s political crisis, explained ›
- Why Netanyahu relented to protests in Israel, but France's Macron didn't ›
- Podcast: Why Netanyahu critic Ehud Barak calls Israel's government "clearly illegitimate" - GZERO Media ›
- Ehud Barak interview: Israeli democracy on the chopping block - GZERO Media ›
An aerial view shows protesters holding a sign depicting handmaidens from "The Handmaid's Tale" with the words "Never Surrender" as they demonstrate against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial overhaul in Tel Aviv.
Israel’s judicial reforms: Here we go again
Tens of thousands took to the streets of Israel’s main cities for the 17th consecutive weekend on Saturday to protest government plans to overhaul the judiciary. Meanwhile, smaller crowds rallied in favor of the reforms in Jerusalem ahead of Monday’s opening session of the Knesset (parliament), which will resume its debate over the divisive bill after a two-month pause ordered by PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu.
Recap: The judicial reform plan has thrown Israel into unprecedented political turmoil. Bibi and his far-right allies say it’s necessary to curb the power of activist judges, while critics call it a power play that would undermine the rule of law by allowing the government to appoint judges and overturn High Court rulings.
By the end of March, weeks of protests, strikes, and threats by soldiers and reservists to not report for duty forced the PM to head off a constitutional crisis by calling a timeout on the vote until the Knesset was back in session.
Still, not much has changed since then. President Isaac Herzog — who has warned of the potential for this to spark a civil war — is now leading cross-party talks in hopes of reaching a compromise to end the crisis. But whatever happens, the PM is stuck: Bibi can only placate protesters by shelving the reforms, but if he caves he can probably kiss his shaky coalition government goodbye.
Check out earlier on-the-ground coverage of one of the protests in Tel Aviv by GZERO’s Gabrielle Debinski.
Israel’s political crisis, explained
What happened, exactly?
Since taking office last December, the far-right coalition led by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu had been trying to get legislation passed that would give the executive full control of the supreme court’s composition and allow the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) to overturn supreme court rulings with a simple majority.
While many of the reform’s proponents are motivated by a desire to check what they’ve long viewed as an overly activist, liberal, and anti-democratic judiciary, Bibi himself primarily saw it as a means to stay out of prison and in power.
The judicial overhaul was met with unprecedented opposition, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis across the political and social spectrum taking to the streets nationwide for 12 consecutive weeks. Thousands of mission-critical soldiers and reserve forces said they wouldn’t report for duty if the legislation passed, and several diplomats resigned from their posts in protest. The country’s business community and tech sector threatened to paralyze the nation’s economy if the government didn’t recalibrate, with hundreds of international economists, leading banks, credit rating agencies, and even Israel’s central bank chief warning the overhaul would seriously harm the nation’s business and investment climate.
Still, Bibi refused to back down.
The showdown came to a head over the weekend when Bibi summarily fired Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister and a member of his own Likud Party, for publicly warning that the legislation would be detrimental to national security.
Mass spontaneous demonstrations erupted almost immediately across the country. Critically, Israel’s largest labor union, representing nearly a quarter (!) of the total workforce, announced a general strike for the first time in its history, shutting down everything from Ben Gurion Airport to shopping centers, hospitals, universities, local governments, and every McDonald’s in the country (they were … not lovin’ it). This prompted more Likud members to speak out against the bills, raising concerns that they would not get enough votes to pass.
Bibi finally blinked on Monday night, delaying a vote on the legislation until the Knesset’s summer session (which starts after Passover and goes until July) in what he called “a timeout for dialogue.” By Tuesday morning, the trade unions had called off the strike.
And so, the crisis was defused — for now.
Who wins and loses from the suspension?
After three months of ceding no ground despite the damage done to Israel’s social, economic, and military fabric, one could be tempted to see Bibi’s announcement as a climbdown or a concession. It’s not. The pause is a pit stop, a tactical breather to lower tensions and deprive the opposition of momentum that doesn’t commit the government to any genuine concessions in return.
Bibi hasn’t canceled the legislation. On the contrary, he has promised his far-right coalition partners that he will still ram it through, and with his own physical freedom on the line, there’s every reason to believe it’s only a matter of time until he tries again.
His pledge to hold good-faith negotiations with the opposition is made more challenging by his using the same speech to blame the pro-democracy “extremists” for inciting civil strife. There’s nothing to prevent the prime minister from announcing a breakdown in talks at a time of his choosing, leaving the government days away from being able to pass the legislation.
In fact, Bibi’s only material concession was not to the bill’s critics but to the hard right, which got promised a brand-new national guard under the direct command of Israel’s extremist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to help tackle rising crime in mixed Jewish-Arab cities. Given the police force’s reluctance to repress pro-democracy protests in recent weeks, a private militia may even prove an asset to Netanyahu when the time comes to push the reform through once and for all.
Would the judicial reforms spell the end of democracy?
A political system as fragmented as Israel’s, where no one party can ever control the government and where coalitions are incredibly hard to put together and even harder to maintain, has an inbuilt structural check on all power: division.
This informal but deeply entrenched check is more binding than the formal check that is separation of powers, and it makes Israel’s democracy more resilient than Hungary’s or Turkey’s. There’s nothing Bibi or anyone can do to change that.
Yes, the proposed overhaul would in theory empower the executive and parliament to constrain the judiciary, but political division would limit how strongly any governing coalition could constrain judiciary independence in practice. In fact, the very reason why the judiciary is so strong in Israel is precisely because of how structurally weak Israeli governments are.
The idea that any one side or leader could suddenly and irreversibly take control of the supreme court, when you have 15 political parties and it’s almost impossible to get a majority to agree on anything and any government can fall apart overnight, begs credulity.
That doesn’t mean the judicial reform is a good idea — it isn’t. Israel’s democracy would take a hit, as would its economy. But it wouldn’t be the catastrophe or “attempted coup” its opponents claim.
What does this all mean for Bibi?
Like Donald Trump, Bibi is a political animal. Unlike Trump, he is an incredibly skilled tactician. These two features have allowed him to hold Israel’s highest office for 15 years despite countless scandals and challenges to his rule, defying all predictions. But he’s neither infallible nor invincible.
Dismissing his defense minister for warning about a potential national security threat — literally in his job description — was a lapse in judgment, prompting trade unions, the entire security apparatus, and some senior members of his party to lose confidence in him. So was attacking patriotic reservists as refuseniks and saboteurs in a country where virtually every citizen serves in the military. He definitely underestimated the degree of popular backlash the judicial overhaul would face.
Are these missteps enough to end his political career?
Perhaps. The Gallant episode has forced some of the more establishment-minded Likud members to see Bibi for who he has become: a man desperate to avoid jail no matter the cost to the nation. More damningly, his Monday “capitulation” is leading the hardliners to start questioning his worth as a partner. For a leader like Bibi, the only thing worse than looking incompetent is looking weak.
True, the government still commands a slim majority in the Knesset, and Bibi will probably manage to keep his fragile coalition together for at least a few more months. But he could easily lose the support of several Likud MPs if the legislation proceeds in the summer as he’s promised the far right, and he could easily lose the far right if he reneges on his promise — or if he can't muster the votes from his own party to get it passed.
To be clear, it’s entirely possible this isn’t the issue that ends the Netanyahu government. But sooner or later, something will break the coalition. And when voters head to the polls next, they will remember that it was Bibi who pushed the country to the brink for personal gain.
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- Israel's judicial reform could destroy democracy from within, says former PM Ehud Barak - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Why Netanyahu critic Ehud Barak calls Israel's government "clearly illegitimate" - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why Israel's judiciary reform is so controversial - GZERO Media ›
- How Bibi could end Israel's democracy (or get ousted) - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why antisemitism is increasing around the world - GZERO Media ›
- "Golda" looks back at Israel's controversial former PM - GZERO Media ›
What We're Watching: Russian nukes in Belarus, Israelis vs. Bibi
Putin to deploy tactical nukes in Belarus
Vladimir Putin on Saturday announced that Russia plans to send tactical nuclear weapons to staunch ally Belarus. Construction of storage units will be completed by July 1, although Putin was vague on when the nukes themselves would be deployed. (Recap: Tactical nukes are lower-yield atomic weapons that can’t take out entire cities like strategic ones.)
The Russian leader said he made the decision after the US and UK announced they would be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank rounds made from depleted uranium. What’s more, Putin believes that Russia is well within its right to do this since America already has US tactical nukes in six NATO countries and that Moscow is not violating its nuclear non-proliferation obligations because it’ll retain control over the weapons.
US officials downplay the idea that storing Russian tactical nukes in Belarus will impact the war in Ukraine, which is already well within range of the Kremlin’s vast nuclear arsenal. But the announcement might be a provocation aimed at rattling Western public opinion against helping Ukraine as Russia struggles on the battlefield. Also, there’s currently no clear path forward for a negotiated settlement despite last week’s high-stakes meeting between Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.
Russia has often played up its nuclear rhetoric when things are not going well in Ukraine. In fact, Putin reportedly considered using tactical nukes last fall but finally decided against it. Still, the fact that the nuclear option is on the table at all should be alarming to anyone.
Israel is on fire. Will Bibi freeze the judicial overhaul?
Tens of thousands of Israelis left their beds and hit the streets late on Sunday night after news broke that Israeli PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant. Then on Monday, thousands of demonstrators descended on Jerusalem to protest outside the Knesset (parliament).
Also, Israel’s biggest trade union joined calls for a general strike for the first time since the creation of the modern state, resulting in Ben Gurion International Airport suspendingall departing flights.
Quick recap: Gallant was the first member of Bibi’s Likud party to have called for the government to suspend judicial reform legislation. A former navy commando, Gallant had demanded a halt on the grounds that the reforms were imperiling national security after scores of soldiers and army reservists said they wouldn't show up for training.
With Israel's economy at a standstill, all eyes are now on Netanyahu, who is reportedly planning to announce that he’ll put his plans on ice. But his national address has been delayed.
Meanwhile, high-profile government ministers — including Justice Minister Yair Levin, the architect of the controversial reforms — said they would support the PM if he halts the legislation, fearing it will lead to the collapse of the government. That’s a non starter for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who threatened to topple the government if it backs down on the changes.
Still, many analysts and academics now believe that Netanyahu, the ultimate political survivor, has overplayed his hand this time around and that nothing will placate protesters but the end of the Bibi era once and for all.