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Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
Will Bennett ditch Ukraine peace talks to focus on domestic terror?
Israel is facing its worst domestic terror wave in nearly a decade after 11 people were killed in three cities in just one week.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who’s been focused on high-stakes international diplomacy in recent weeks, is now mounting a full-court press to contain the deteriorating security situation at home.
What are the domestic and international implications of the brutal terrorism plaguing Israel?
The attacks. On Sunday, two Israeli Arabs linked with the Islamic State killed two people in the city of Hadera north of Tel Aviv. Last week, another assailant killed four people in the southern city of Beersheba.
On Tuesday, a 27-year-old Palestinian man from the West Bank broke through a security barrier before gunning down five people in a suburb of Tel Aviv. Two of the victims were Ukrainian nationals.
The timing of this terror surge could not be worse. It comes just days before the holy month of Ramadan, during which many Muslims make a pilgrimage to the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem’s Old City, a pressure cooker at the best of times.
Before the attacks, Israeli authorities had been planning to increase entry permits for elderly Muslims to pray at al-Aqsa and to ease freedom of movement for Palestinians during Ramadan. The Biden administration, for its part, had asked the Bennett government to take preemptive steps to avoid the sort of clashes seen in Jerusalem last May that contributed to an 11-day war between Israeli forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the uptick in violence, Israel will keep this plan in place, says Anna Ahronheim, a military correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. “I think Israel will try its best to allow those with permits – including the 20,000 from Gaza – to continue to work in Israel,” she says. But that will involve “heavy scrutiny on those crossing.”
What’s more, Ramadan this year coincides with both Easter and Passover, meaning that amid the already-heightened temperature there will be more Jews, Muslims, and Christians making their way to flashpoint sites in Jerusalem.
"This all relates back to the events of last May," says Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “It is part of a system of terror. Everything is related, and Hamas [in the Gaza Strip] is a very significant generator of this system."
The deteriorating security situation comes as Bennett has been trying to establish himself as an international statesman. Since coming to office last year, Bennett has sought to change the perception among some Israelis that Likud stalwart Benjamin Netanyahu, his longtime predecessor, is the only politician capable of representing Israel’s complex strategic interests on the international stage.
And Bennett’s been doing fine on that count. Just this week, his government hosted four Arab states – Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt – as well as the United States, for a summit in the Negev desert focused on boosting Israeli-Arab relations. While there were no actionable items on the agenda, it does highlight Israel’s growing clout in the region.
More crucially, Bennett’s image as an elder statesman has been further burnished by his middleman status in the Russia-Ukraine quagmire. He recently visited Moscow to try and broker a truce, and the Financial Times has described the Israeli PM as the “primary international mediator” between the warring sides. Most recently, a Ukrainian delegation led by a top aide of President Voldoymr Zelensky arrived in Jerusalem on Wednesday to review a potential cease-fire with Russia – a plan discussed during high-level peace talks in Istanbul earlier in the week.
Some sources say Bennett has moved the Ukraine issue to the back burner so long as the security situation at home remains precarious. But Michael disagrees. He doesn't think the situation at home will distract from mediation efforts in Ukraine because the Bennett government can walk and chew gum at the same time.
To be sure, it’s unclear how crucial the Israelis are to ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or, for that matter, how serious the Kremlin really is about de-escalation. Still, Moscow and Kyiv have made clear that Israel is one of very few countries they both trust, so Bennett pulling back from mediation efforts doesn’t bode well for peace efforts.
Will Israel be forced to choose between Russia and Ukraine?
Israel, the only country with close ties to Russia and Ukraine, is trying to delicately balance relations with both states. But as things continue to heat up on the Ukraine-Russia front, that's becoming much harder for Israel to do.
In a rare move Thursday, Kyiv summoned Israel's ambassador to Ukraine for a telling off, demanding an explanation following reports that Israel had reached out to Russia for help coordinating the evacuation of its nationals should Moscow escalate.
Why does Israel appear to be playing both sides, and how might things turn out if Russia invades?
A marriage of convenience. Israel and Russia have enjoyed constructive ties in recent decades. But a particular closeness was cultivated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years as Moscow took a dominant role in Syria’s civil war along Israel’s northern border. Netanyahu visited Moscow 15 times from 2011-2020.
For Israel, mitigating threats in the Syrian arena, where its arch foe Iran also yields great influence, is a national security priority. In recent years, Russia — which largely controls Syrian airspace — has allowed Israeli warplanes to target Iranian strategic assets there, including convoys trying to deliver weapons to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. Russia is willing to cooperate with Israel on these aerial missions in part because it is competing with Tehran for dominance inside Syria. But the Kremlin could clamp down if Israel provokes it.
Tel Aviv-based Middle East analyst Danny Citrinowicz told GZERO that Israel is not publicly supporting Ukraine because it knows it has “a lot to lose with Russia in Syria.” For both Israel and Russia, it’s a delicate balancing act in Syria, he says. “If Israel intensifies its attacks [in Syria], that could shake the stability of the Assad regime” and undermine Russia’s strategic interests in Syria and the region. Russia would not look at that kindly, just as it might punish Israel with more limited access to launch strikes against Syria if Jerusalem sided with Ukraine.
Kyiv wants a stronger commitment. Israel and Ukraine, meanwhile, are buddies that share robust trade ties, which they hope to expand with a new free trade agreement. The two countries are also closely aligned diplomatically and culturally, a bond reinforced by the fact that thousands of Ukrainian Jews emigrated to Israel.
But Ukraine wants more. For years, it has been trying to buy Israeli weapons and defense technology to boost its military might. Israel has mostly balked at the requests to avoid stepping over a red line for the Kremlin. Just this week, for example, there were reports that Israel had blocked the sale of sophisticated Iron Dome missile defense systems to Ukraine.
What’s more, because of Israel’s unique status as a “mutual friend,” Kyiv has called on Jerusalem to act as mediator in its deepening row with Moscow. But Naftali Bennett, Israel’s prime minister, is having none of it. In fact, Bennett has reportedly told ministers to “keep a low profile” and to avoid showing deference to either side. Still, Israel has called on its nationals to return to Israel and is planning to evacuate Ukrainian Jews, which suggests it anticipates some sort of Russian offensive.
The Washington equation. Israel and the US are closely aligned on global security issues, yet sometimes their immediate interests diverge. Ukraine is a case in point.
Despite saying that it won’t send US troops to defend Ukraine, the Biden administration has been working overtime to strengthen NATO and ensure a coordinated Western response if Russia escalates. For now, the US appears to be okay with Israel’s fence-sitting, but that could change if Washington wants to inflict more severe pain on Russia in the weeks ahead.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow and Middle East policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says it’s “unlikely” that Israel will be dragged into the conflict. But if the US “pressured Israel to choose sides in the wake of a major Russian move into Ukraine, Israel would likely comply, especially if Biden asked Bennett personally,” he says.
“Moscow is important in Israel's Syria strategy; Washington is critical to its overall strategic advantage.”