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Giorgia Meloni, leader of Italian far-right party Brothers of Italy, gestures during a campaign rally in Turin.
How far to the right is Italy’s soon-to-be prime minister?
Until recently, Giorgia Meloni was on the fringes of Italian politics. Now the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party is likely to become the country’s first female prime minister when Italians head to the polls on Sept. 25.
A self-styled anti-globalist, Meloni has for the most part embraced her far-right reputation within an Italian electorate that relishes anti-establishment candidates. But in an age when the term ‘far-right’ has become a catchall, what does Meloni really stand for and what will her election mean for Italy’s politics and economy?
Mother of the Brothers
Meloni – a former minister for youth in then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s cabinet – has headed the breakaway nationalist Brothers of Italy Party since 2014. Avowedly anti-immigrant and proud of its nativist bonafides, the party has roots in Italy’s neofascist parties of the 1940s.
Meloni’s party is currently slated to reap 25% of the vote, while her three-party coalition – including Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – would together secure around 45%. The bloc, expected to win majorities in both legislative chambers, could even win a two-thirds supermajority. Importantly, this would allow it to make constitutional changes without holding a referendum.
Indeed, Meloni’s conservative far-right credentials are well-established. In refusing to join former Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s center-left national unity government last year, she emerged as an attractive candidate for protest voters (Salvini and Berlusconi both supported it). She has called immigration to Italy a form of “ethnic substitution” and has rallied against globalist elites as well as the “LGBT lobby.”
A former journalist and Italy’s youngest-ever cabinet minister, Meloni is not your run-of-the-mill far-right nationalist. Unsurprisingly, she is not a huge fan of the European Union, saying at a recent debate: “If I win, for Europe, the fun is over,” adding that Brussels should leave “the issues closest to the lives of citizens” to member states. What’s more, the Brothers have aligned in the European parliament with Poland’s Law and Justice Party that’s long been on a collision course with the EU.
Still, Meloni’s not a proponent of tear-it-down politics. Unlike her coalition partners, Meloni is firmly pro-NATO and supports Brussels’ ongoing economic sanctions on Russia. But Meloni also says that European solidarity “has limits,” calling out Germany in particular for opposing caps on the price of gas because of contracts with Russian state energy companies.
A tricky balancing act. Meloni appears to have tempered her tough-on-Brussels stance in recent weeks, emphasizing that she’s not keen to pick fights and will prioritize Italy’s economy, burdened by massive debt and an energy crunch.
A savvy politician who joined the political fray as a student, Meloni also knows that solid ties with Brussels are crucial to keeping Italy’s economy afloat. As part of Brussels’ bloc-wide pandemic recovery plan, Rome is slated to get almost 200 billion euros from the EU Commission. Brussels also bailed out Rome in 2012 from a debt crisis, and although Italy’s debt to GDP ratio remains sky-high – more than 150% at the end of 2021, which puts it in the world’s top 10 – it is manageable only because the European Central Bank has bought much of Italy’s debt.
“European debt substitutes Italy's debt,” says Carlo Bastasin, a Europe economic and political expert at the Brookings Institution. Indeed, the ECB bought 250 billion euros worth of Italian debt between March 2020 and December 2021 to stabilize the eurozone.
However, the doling out of post-COVID funds is contingent on Italy enforcing structural economic reforms. The incoming far-right coalition has said the EU provisions should be amended given recent geopolitical developments. But it has also proposed broad tax cuts among other big spending schemes that will certainly make for some frosty conversations in Brussels.
One of the most important factors in determining the stability of the government, Bastasin says, “is how the European Central Bank will manage the required increase in interest rates” to curb inflation. If its intervention is too heavy- handed, he says, it might “corner Italy’s government, making its financial situation unstable and the basis of the government wobbly.”
As Italy prepares to usher in its most Eurosceptic government in years, some analysts have pointed to Hungary’s complex relationship with Brussels as a sign of what’s to come. Under ultra-conservative PM Viktor Orbán, Budapest has refused to comply with EU reforms needed to unlock much-needed cash. But Bastasin says the comparison between the two is flawed: “Hungary has been subsidized by the EU Commission and EU partners forever, while Italy is a net creditor to the Commission. It gives to Brussels more than it receives.”
What’s more, he adds, Italians, for the most part, have a lot of love for the European Union. “In Poland and Hungary they don't have the same affinity for European integration. They never have.”
Meloni is likely to come into office with a solid mandate to govern, but the road ahead will be anything but smooth.
From left to right, Lega leader Matteo Salvini, Brothers leader Giorgia Meloni, and former Italian PM and Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi.
How will the far right run Italy?
On Sept. 25, Italians head to the polls to vote in a snap parliamentary election triggered by the collapse of PM Mario Draghi's fragile coalition government in late July. Political instability and short-lived governments are nothing new in Italy, which has churned through 18 of them in the past 34 years. Now, though, an alliance of far-right parties is widely favored to win power for the first time since the end of World War II in a country with bitter memories of fascist rule. What will that government look like, and what can we expect from it? We asked Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi.
What would a far-right government look like?
It'll probably be a coalition led by the far-far-right Brothers (Fratelli d’Italia) Party, with the far-right Lega and the center-right Forza Italia parties as junior partners. If the Brothers and Lega do extremely well, there’s a chance they could do without Forza Italia (probably the smaller of the three), but this is unlikely, and they sort of come as a package.
Who would lead it?
The smart money is on Giorgia Meloni, Brothers’ shrewd leader, since the deal is that whichever party wins the most votes gets to pick the prime minister. Brothers will most likely win the most votes (and seats) of the three, and probably of any party in fact. The next PM need not be the leader of the party; in fact, looking at the last few years, prime ministers come and go every 1-2 years on average, but party leaders tend to be more durable. So it’s possible that Meloni could select another high-profile figure for the post, contenting herself to run the show from the sidelines. But she has recently dispelled this, signaling very clearly that she has her eye on the top job.
What would it mean for migration?
Given the structural drivers of migration (population growth, climate change, drought, food prices, food insecurity), the problem is only going to get worse. With chronic instability in Libya, and an unpoliceable border at sea, Italy cannot rely on Europe’s time-tested methods of co-opting autocrats to police migration flows from Algeria, Egypt, or Turkey.
Lega boss Matteo Salvini was Italy's interior minister from 2018 to 2019, when his party briefly ruled the country in a coalition with the populist 5-Star movement after the 2018 election. So we have an idea of what that looks like: generate as much noise as possible while shifting as much of the blame as possible to the EU for what is in fact a largely intractable problem. In practice, this may involve denying safe harbor and rescue rights for migrants in waters under Italian jurisdiction, while clamoring for a more equitable distribution of asylum-seekers in the EU, and more EU funding to deal with the issue – neither of which is likely.
The other option, to which Italy has resorted with some success in the past, is paying off Libyan militias to police flows — effectively holding tens of thousands of migrants in jails and internment camps, usually in appalling conditions.
What about relations with the EU?
Meloni has so far been careful to come across as moderate and as a credible partner, including vis-à-vis Brussels and Washington. None of the three parties wants to ditch the euro, let alone the EU. Having seen what the Eurozone debt crisis meant for Greece, they are not keen to go down that road, and probably won’t openly antagonize the EU initially.
However, Brothers and Lega remain fundamentally populist nationalist parties. Their basic instinct will be to reject unpopular demands from Brussels if they go counter to their electoral interests, or to foster and leverage anti-EU sentiment to shore up support for their cause in the face of a faltering economy.
Despite the leadership’s moderate turn, Brothers’ base remains rooted in the far-right, as do its rank-and-file lawmakers. Competition within the coalition also has the potential to lead to a dangerous race to the bottom, notably between Lega and Brothers — who are competing for the same electorate to some extent. Indeed, this was arguably one of the main structural factors leading to Draghi’s downfall.
Also, the fringe Italexit party — which does want Italy out of the EU — will probably meet the 3% of the vote threshold to enter parliament. Although it'll likely remain out of the coalition, Lega and Brothers will have a new competitor to contend with outside government as well.
Lastly, the broader macroeconomic context is also unhelpful. Rising inflation will prompt greater demands for fiscal stimulus and salary increases across the board, which the government will struggle to manage.
What would it do with Draghi’s stalled reforms to get EU pandemic recovery cash?
Many of the reforms required for the December review have already been legislated, so in a sense, the hard work is done. However, in most cases, the government still has to issue the legislation necessary to actually implement the reforms, which will be difficult to do by the end of the year. So the December tranche (just under 1% of GDP) of EU money will at the very least be delayed well into 2023, with direct repercussions for Italy's economic growth outlook.
Going forward, the reforms calendar will suffer, and further disbursements will also be at risk. There is also a chance the new government might want to renegotiate parts of the Recovery Plan, which could lead to further delays.
Do these far-right parties stand a better or worse chance of getting along compared to previous coalition governments?
Italy’s complex electoral system gives electoral coalitions a big advantage over parties running individually. Lega and Forza Italia formed part of Draghi’s national unity coalition. Meanwhile, Brothers had been leading the opposition and climbed steadily in the polls as a result, mainly at Lega’s expense. Yet, true to form, the three quickly closed ranks once elections were triggered, and announced they would run as a bloc.
Going forward, they also have strong incentives to keep the coalition together, though competition between them could have important implications for the policy outlook. Only a significant decline in support for any of the three parties could increase the risk of another snap election.
Former US President Donald Trump
What We’re Watching: Mar-a-Lago "under siege," US pitches Africa, Italy’s left falters, Greek spy scandal
Trump claims FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago
Former US President Donald Trump said Monday that the Feds were searching his sprawling residence in Palm Beach, Florida. In a statement, Trump complained that his swanky Mar-a-Lago estate is "currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents." If his claim is true, the raid would be a big escalation in efforts by the Department of Justice to investigate the former president for trying to overturn the 2020 election result and inciting the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC that resulted in several deaths. It could also be related to a separate DOJ probe into 15 boxes of classified documents that Trump took with him to Mar-a-Lago after leaving office. Although federal law prohibits moving classified material to unauthorized locations, Trump might argue that, in his final days as president, he got to make the final call on declassifying the files. Either way, the raid — which has not yet been confirmed by the DOJ — will surely cause political ripples in the coming days: the former president and his fans will cite the search as proof that the so-called "deep state" is trying to stop him from running again in 2024, while Democrats and never-Trump Republicans likely hope that the FBI was indeed looking for evidence linked to the Jan. 6 committee hearings that could help indict Trump.
Blinken goes to Africa
The battle for Africa continues. This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a three-nation tour of the continent. Currently in South Africa, Blinken will soon head to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, where he’ll seek to shore up support for the West’s position amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Blinken’s tour comes just weeks after his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, wrapped up a multination African tour focused on reassuring African allies – many of whom rely on Russian arms exports – of Moscow’s commitment to alleviating the global food crisis. Indeed, US-South Africa relations have been somewhat rocky in recent years, in part due to former President Donald Trump reneged on Washington’s commitment to helping developing countries meet their climate goals. In recent years, China became Pretoria’s largest trade partner, something else Washington is keen to address. Blinken is also expected to try and bolster regional efforts to enforce a truce between the DRC and Rwanda amid ongoing clashes on the border. The US wants to present itself as a more reliable and valuable partner at a time when both Russia and China have made significant inroads throughout the continent. The problem? Many African states don't want to have to choose.
Italy’s left in turmoil
Italy’s far-right was dealt another boon after a centrist party pulled its support for its rival left-wing coalition. Carlo Calenda, leader of the Azione (Action) Party and Italy’s former permanent representative to the EU, ditched the left-leaning bloc led by the Democratic Party after its leader, Enrico Letta, signed a parallel deal with the Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde parties (two anti-establishment leftist groups) in a bid to build a bulwark against the right ahead of general elections on September 25. The far-right – made up of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy Party, Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant Lega Party, and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – would now win a combined vote share of 46%, compared with the left’s 30%, according to recent polls. Calenda said he refused to run with the two parties that had long sought to destabilize outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, leading to his eventual resignation last month. (Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde notably both voted against Finland and Sweden joining NATO.) If the far-right prevails next month as expected, it could stonewall efforts to make the structural reforms needed to unlock billions of euros in pandemic relief that Italy’s inflation-hit economy desperately needs.
Watergateopoulos in Athens
The Greek government is reeling from a spying scandal that has already seen two high-level resignations from the center-right government of PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis. It appears that the spy agency, which reports directly to Mitsotakis’s office, used spyware to tap the cellphone of his most prominent political rival, Nikos Androulakis, who heads the social democrat Pasok Party. Androulakis evidently discovered the breach during a routine scrub of his devices by the European Parliament, of which he is a member. Mitsotakis says the eavesdropping was an unforgivable mistake that he didn’t know anything about and wouldn’t have allowed. So far his spy chief and his nephew, a trusted aide, have both stepped down in a bid to keep the scandal from ensnaring their boss directly. The news comes after revelations that the state may also have spied on two journalists, reviving bad memories of the country’s 20th century military dictatorship.Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni during a campaign rally in Rieti.
Is she Italy’s next prime minister?
After 17 months of relative stability, Italian politics has again become a roller-coaster ride, and a country that’s had 18 governments in 34 years will soon have another. With the collapse of Mario Draghi’s coalition, a new election will likely take place in September or October.
Who will lead that government? It’s too soon to tell, given the fast-changing nature of Italian politics, but now’s a good time to take another close look at the charismatic Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the most popular party in Italy today.
Four years ago, populist firebrand Matteo Salvini was widely considered Italy's prime minister-in-waiting, until a series of political missteps left him in opposition. Then the arrival of COVID in 2020 devastated Italy and its economy, blunting the force of Salvini’s anti-EU message by leaving the country dependent on outside help.
Draghi, a former European Central Bank president and formidable technocrat, became the man of the hour, and in February 2021 he formed a government of national unity. Faced with the need to work with the EU on financial relief for his country, Draghi extended a hand to both the left and right. The center-left Democratic Party and anti-establishment Five Star party agreed to join his coalition. Crucially, so did Lega, Salvini's party.
That's when Salvini and Lega began to drop in the polls. Some voters who liked his anti-immigrant fist-shaking and attacks on EU leaders decided that Salvini had sold out by joining Draghi's government, which has accepted EU reform demands in exchange for pandemic rescue funds.
In search of a more authentic far-right alternative, many of those voters turned to the Brothers of Italy, the largest party in parliament to remain outside Draghi's coalition.
That party's leader, Giorgia Meloni, began rising in the polls.
Who is she? Just 45, Meloni has more than two decades of experience in bare-knuckled Italian politics. As a teenager, she joined the youth group within Movimento Sociale Italiano (Italian Social Movement), a barely reconstructed fascist party inspired by Benito Mussolini. After moving to the right-wing National Alliance, she became minister of youth in one of the many governments led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in 2008. In 2014, she helped found Brothers of Italy.
On immigration, the party has struck an even harder line than Lega has. The Brothers have called for blockades to stop migrants from reaching Italian ports. Meloni wants to boost Italy's birth rate to ease the need for migrant labor. She’s called for the defense of "God, fatherland, and family," an old-school fascist slogan.
Meloni has never favored an Italian exit from the EU, but she has said Italy should "re-discuss" existing EU treaties and the single currency. She has called for amending Italy's constitution to give Italian law priority over European law.
Getting to compromise. If Meloni, or anyone else in her party, becomes prime minister, her attitude toward the EU and its institutions will face intense scrutiny, both within Italy and across Europe. This is still a moment when recovery for Italy’s post-pandemic economy means cooperation with the EU to gain access to COVID relief “disbursement funds.” And that depends on continued reform of Italy’s economic management.
Meloni has taken a strong position in favor of Ukrainian and EU efforts to help that country repel Russia’s invasion. That demonstrates that her political pragmatism will trump nationalism when necessary to boost her party’s credibility as a leader in government.
But she’ll certainly have to prove to skeptics that her traditional Euro-skepticism would prevent Italy from getting the EU help it needs to restore its economy to health. And getting from here to there might prove a punishing process for Italy’s still-fragile economy.
What We're Watching: Draghi's departure, Russian annexation plans, two-way race for British PM
Draghi throws in the towel
Italy's embattled Prime Minister Mario Draghi finally stepped down on Thursday for a second time in a week, hours after winning a vote of confidence in the upper house of parliament on Wednesday evening. This time, President Sergio Mattarella didn't reject his resignation but asked him to continue as caretaker PM, presumably until a fresh election is held.
The vote of confidence was partly hijacked by mass abstentions from three of the top parties in his coalition: the populist 5-Star Movement, the far-right Lega, and the center-right Forza Italia. The no-shows broke Draghi’s hopes of keeping together a strong majority, and in the end he kept his promise to stay on as PM only if he held the coalition together. That was impossible since both Lega and Forza Italia wanted to ditch 5-Star, which they blame for the government’s collapse after rejecting Draghi's energy crisis relief plan.
The PM's departure puts an end to 18 months of a fragile unity coalition government, and ushers in a period of deep uncertainty for Italy and Europe at a critical time. Inflation and energy costs are both surging, and Draghi didn't have time to pass the reforms necessary to unlock EU pandemic relief funds. Also, the next government might be led by the Euroskeptic far-right party Brothers of Italy, out of the coalition and whose leader Giorgia Meloni celebrated the exit of "Super Mario".
Russia wants more of Ukraine
The US has feared for months that Russia aimed to annex Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. But having already seized much of the Donbas, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Moscow also intends to gobble up the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces in southern Ukraine, along with a “number of other territories.” American officials now believe Russia plans to illegally swipe sovereign parts of Ukrainian territory by introducing the ruble and forcing residents to get Russian passports — a new twist on Vladimir Putin’s 2014 playbook in Crimea, where the Kremlin held a bogus referendum on "joining Russia” prior to annexation. Since peace talks with Kyiv collapsed this spring, Putin likely thinks the odds of a negotiated settlement are slim, so he might as well take as much of Ukraine as he can before the Ukrainians get enough Western weapons to mount a counteroffensive. That would allow Putin to link Crimea by land to the Russian mainland and could boost his popularity at home. But there's a big downside: he’ll need to spend lots of troops and rubles on pacifying hostile populations and propping up battered economies.
UK race narrows to two: Sunak vs. Truss
Conservative MPs voted on Wednesday to advance Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss to the final round of balloting for leadership of their party. Starting Friday, about 160,000 party members nationwide will begin voting by mail to decide which of these two will serve as the UK’s next prime minister, at least until the next national election. The result of the vote won’t be known until Sept. 5. Sunak is best known for serving as chancellor during the pandemic and directing heavy spending to boost the UK’s flagging economy. Though fined for involvement in outgoing PM Boris Johnson’s lockdown scandals, Sunak was among the first to signal his lack of confidence in Johnson by resigning. Truss has served as both post-Brexit international trade secretary and foreign minister. So far, the candidates have competed for votes among their fellow MPs. Now they must win the hearts and minds of their party’s rank-and-file. A YouGov poll of party members this week showed support favoring Truss, 54% to 35%. But it’s all to play for as weeks of hustings kick off across the UK after Monday’s televised debate between the finalists. The new prime minister will then have to persuade the rest of the country that Tories aren’t just listening to other Tories.Who’s running Italy?
Italy’s government has been thrown into a period of uncertainty. On Thursday, Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to step down after the populist 5-Star Movement, one of the biggest parties in his coalition government, refused to back his 23 billion euro ($23.1 billion) energy crisis relief plan. But President Sergio Mattarella refused the resignation.
The former European Central Bank chief, known as “Super Mario” for saving the Eurozone from its debt crisis more than a decade ago, acknowledged that he’d lost the confidence of his “unity” cabinet.
Strings attached. The lower house of parliament signed off on the relief bill last week. But in the upper house, Thursday's vote on it had been tied to a prior vote of confidence in Draghi himself.
"While the 5-Star MPs approved the first measure, they left the room when it was time to vote on the second," says Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi. Meanwhile, many 5-Star members have spent the past week complaining about the bill.
Still, by offering to step down, "Draghi stood by his word as he repeatedly maintained that he won’t go on if 5-Star exits the coalition," Santi adds.
This has been building. While a shock to many, Foreign Minister and 5-Star leader Luigi di Maio said some party members “have been planning for months for an outbreak of a crisis to put an end to Draghi’s government.”
A month ago, the party itself was on the verge of breaking apart and away from the coalition due to skepticism over Italy’s support for Ukraine. And weeks before that, the far-right Brothers of Italy Party won big in local elections; they’re not members of the coalition, but their strong showing point to a possible shift in the nationwide political tenor.
What happens now? Normally, if the PM’s resignation is accepted, the president would consult with parties to find a new candidate. But now things are up in the air. Mattarella has instead asked Draghi to address parliament about the state of the coalition.
Draghi’s much-awaited speech is unlikely to be scheduled before next Wednesday, which means Italy is left in political turmoil — and without the relief package Italians desperately need to help ease the impact of the energy crisis.
Unsurprisingly, well-known former PMs Giuseppe Conte, Enrico Letta, Matteo Renzi, and even Silvio Berlusconi jumped at the opportunity to try and seize the spotlight amid the chaos. But before it’s anyone else’s turn to try and gain the majority’s trust, Mattarella is giving Draghi a chance to prove he still has it.
President Joe Biden speaks about gas prices at the White House.
What We're Watching: Biden's gas tax holiday plan, deadly quake in Afghanistan, Italy's Five Star party woes
Biden’s gas tax holiday fuels tepid response
In a bid to address rising gas prices at home, President Joe Biden on Wednesday called for a gas tax holiday that would lift federal taxes on gas and diesel for the next three months. The move aims to show that the White House is taking the plight of Americans seriously after gas prices topped a whopping $5 a gallon last week. But Congress is unlikely to approve the suspension. Even Democrats – including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – have canned the idea, saying that it is tokenistic because lifting federal taxes (18 cents per gallon) will barely move the needle, and that any small gains will be made by … oil companies. Critics also say that it won't have a significant impact on the base price of gas, with all taxes on average (state and federal) accounting for just 12% of the overall price. Indeed, this is the latest (desperate) attempt by the Biden administration to tackle the rising cost of living that is pummeling working-class Americans and contributing to his cratering poll numbers ahead of November’s midterm elections. The next step? In July, Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia to try and get Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to pump more oil.
Earthquake rocks Afghanistan
A 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan early Wednesday morning, killing at least 1,000 people. The quake, the country’s deadliest in 20 years, adds to the long list of challenges facing the Taliban government, which has ruled since the internationally backed government fell apart in the wake of the US military withdrawal last August. Impoverished and largely cut off from the global financial system because of US sanctions and other punitive measures against the Taliban, the war-wracked country is already mired in a deepening humanitarian crisis, made worse by the Taliban’s combination of fundamentalist ideology and practical inexperience. The Taliban has appealed to the international community for help in the wake of the deadly tremor. The UN, which has faced funding shortfalls for its work in Afghanistan, is already on site. The US, which has funneled more than $700 million in aid to Afghanistan since August and is pressuring the Taliban to reverse its decision to limit girls’ access to education, says it is assessing how it might help the quake victims.
A crumbling Italian center-right?
Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio has announced that he’s splitting from the Five Star Movement — the populist party he once helmed and the largest party in PM Mario Draghi’s coalition government — to form a new party in support of Draghi. The Five Star Movement’s skeptical stance regarding Italy’s support of Ukraine, as well as rising tension between di Maio and party leader Giuseppe Conte, led to the decision. Conte, meanwhile, says the party will stick with Draghi, but this is the second episode, along with recent local elections, that highlight how Italy’s right-wing is changing. Local polls elevated Italy’s far-right, placing the Brothers of Italy Party — not part of the current “unity government” — ahead of the Five Star Movement. This proved that the far-right is gaining ground nationwide, while Wednesday’s split by di Maio reflects how the center-right is weakening — an interesting dynamic to watch as Italy gets closer to national elections in 2023.What We’re Watching: Draghi’s gamble, new hotspot for US-bound migrants, Russia-Ukraine water wars
"Super Mario" takes his chances: Less than five months after becoming Italy's consensus prime minister, Mario Draghi's coalition government is on shaky ground over Draghi's proposed judicial reforms. "Super Mario" — as he's known for saving the Eurozone as European Central Bank chief during the financial crisis — wants to dramatically speed up Italy's famously slow courts. But his push to reduce judicial backlogs is opposed both by the populist 5-Star Movement, the coalition government's biggest party, and by prosecutors because many cases could be scrapped before reaching a verdict. Draghi, upset that this resistance is stalling his other initiatives to cut Italian red tape, has decided to roll the dice anyway: he'll put his plan to overhaul the courts to a no-confidence vote in parliament. If Draghi wins, he gets the reforms passed without debate; if he loses, the PM technically has to resign, but he'll keep his job because he has enough votes even if the 5-Star Movement bows out of the coalition.
Colombia suddenly a US migration hotspot: US immigration from Latin America significantly slowed in 2020 due to the pandemic. But that's all changed as land borders have reopened. In recent weeks, a record number of migrants have attempted to cross the Darien Gap — dangerous rainforest terrain that straddles Panama and Colombia, and a major crossing point for South Americans trying to reach the US. (Many people die while making the precarious journey; often they are attacked either by wild animals or targeted by gangs.) Panama says 42,000 US-bound migrants have crossed into the country this year alone, up from 8,594 in all of 2020. Meanwhile, the Colombian border town of Necoclí is stretched to its limits, with 1,000 migrants arriving daily, overwhelming its scarce resources and fragile infrastructure. What's more, US authorities are reporting a surge in migration from conflict-plagued Haiti and Cuba. It's a massive concern given that many Latin American countries are experiencing explosive COVID outbreaks.
A liquid flashpoint in Crimea: As a peninsula surrounded by waves, Crimea doesn't leap to mind as a place that lacks for water, but the saltiness of the Black Sea is nothing compared to the latest local acrimony (paywall) between Russia and Ukraine — this time over precisely that: water. After Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian government cut off a Soviet-era canal that supplied 85 percent of the region's fresh water. Moscow, a little breathlessly, says that this amounts to an attempted "genocide", and is struggling to figure out how to provide drinking water to the more than 2 million residents of the peninsula, most of whom are very happy to be part of Russia again, even if it leaves them a little dry. Kyiv meanwhile is worried that Russia's thirst for Ukrainian territory isn't slaked just yet, and that in addition to backing a separatist enclave in the country's east, the Kremlin might make a move on some nearby rivers that could supply Crimea.