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European Elections: What to expect
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the prospects for the European elections later this week?
Yep, it's going to be a big week for big elections. First, on Tuesday coming out the result from the world’s , by far, biggest democratic election, the Indian one. And then from Thursday onwards until Sunday, we have elections in the 27 countries of the European Union, 370 million people have the possibility to vote for the members of the European Parliament, 720 of those. Result remains to be seen. It's unlikely to be any revolutionary change, but we will see the Greens losing in some countries, the extreme right doing gains in Italy and France. But I think the major parties, the center-right European People's Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals could probably retain the overall majority. But that remains to be seen. In addition, national elections in Belgium and Bulgaria. It's a big week for big elections ahead.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Meloni to visit the White House
An invitation to the White House is no small feat, and the latest world leader to get one from President Joe Biden is indeed an interesting one: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.
The two were chatting this week about the situation in Russia and recent developments in North Africa – meaning Europe’s migrant crisis – when Biden asked Meloni to visit the White House next month.
As the leader of a G7 country and a close European ally, it might not seem like such a big deal for Meloni to be hosted by the US president. But as head of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party – which has neo-fascistic roots – Meloni cuts a very interesting cloth in European politics.
Upon coming to office last fall, many analysts suggested that Meloni – under pressure from her extreme coalition partners – might abandon support for Ukraine and strain relations with the US and the UK, particularly as she’d long styled herself as an anti-globalist. Meloni had also railed against the European Union.
But Meloni, a pragmatic and ideological politician, has emerged as a fierce ally of Ukraine, calling for ongoing military aid to Kyiv despite falling support amongst the Italian electorate and pushback within her coalition. (Still, she’s had more fraught relations with fellow EU leaders – particularly France’s Emmanuel Macron – over immigration.)
Biden, for his part, likely wants to give the Italian PM a photo op for toeing the line on Ukraine, while for Meloni, a visit will give her visibility that’ll play well at home, where she remains extremely popular.
Boris Johnson remains a dangerous force in UK politics
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics, this week from the Oslo airport.
Is the political career of Boris Johnson over?
Seems to be the case but you can never be entirely certain, in his particular case. I think he has the ambition to come back. And clearly, he's going to remain a dangerous, in my opinion, a very disruptive force inside the Conservative Party. If they lose the election next year, which is not unlikely, mildly speaking, there might be a civil war and Boris Johnson might be one of the leaders of that particular civil war inside the Conservative Party. But remains to be seen.
What's the legacy, political and otherwise, of Silvio Berlusconi?
Well, to be on the positive side, he created a media empire. He did some reforms of the Italian political system after the scandals that sort of ripped apart the old political system in the past, but apart from that and in spite of the fact that he is now, sort of, given a state funeral and everyone is parading for him, that happens in situations like this, I think his legacy is mostly negative on the populist, who in three terms of government did very, very little to address the fundamental problems of the Italian economy, in the Italian state. A populist man who maneuvered, a man who had self-interest at the center of most things. But I think history will not judge him too kind.
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi attends a rally ahead of a regional election in Emilia-Romagna.
Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi dies at 86
On Monday, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's longest-serving prime minister, died at age 86. Il Cavaliere (The Knight) finally succumbed to the chronic leukemia that kept him out of the limelight for the past few months.
It's hard to overstate the influence Berlusconi has had on Italian politics since he burst onto the scene in the 1990s. That's when Berlusconi leveraged his immense wealth, media empire, and ownership of the successful AC Milan soccer club to get himself elected to the top job with his Forza Italia Party, a precursor of the right-wing populist forces that rule Italy today. His first premiership lasted less than a year in 1994-1995, but he won it again twice more in 2006-2008 and 2008-2011.
To his critics, Berlusconi wrote the playbook for future world leaders on defying political norms and avoiding accountability for abusing power. Despite a whopping 19 indictments filed against him — for crimes ranging from corruption, tax fraud, and bribery, to underage prostitution at his famous "bunga bunga" booze-fueled parties — Berlusconi was only convicted once for tax evasion in 2013 and never spent a day behind bars. He got away with the rest thanks to amnesties or statutes of limitations.
But to his fans, Berlusconi was a shrewd businessman and wily statesman who elevated Italy to the world stage. And he certainly demonstrated an uncanny ability to navigate Italy's deeply fragmented political system to remain relevant until his death.
Berlusconi's death won't undermine the stability of Italy's right-wing coalition government led by Giorgia Meloni. (The current PM once served as his cabinet minister, but the two have been at odds over Berlusconi's controversial support for Vladimir Putin.)
"Forza Italia, the most junior member of the coalition, is heavily dependent on Berlusconi’s brand and wealth, so the party will likely fizzle out over time," says Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi. "Now, the fight begins among right-wing parties over who inherits Berlusconi’s political legacy and following."
For the moment, Santi adds, "Meloni is best placed to play this role, and Berlusconi's death is likely to further strengthen her hand."
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni during a press conference in Rome.
What We’re Watching: Meloni’s migrant moves, a cartel for rainforests, Haiti’s hope for fuel
Meloni draws a line on migrants
Since becoming Italy’s prime minister two weeks ago, Giorgia Meloni has pushed back against media attempts to portray her as a far-right nationalist euro-skeptic troublemaker. Aware that Italy needs cash from the EU, she’s presented her government as ready to negotiate with Brussels on outstanding issues in good faith. She’s made clear her support for Ukraine and NATO. Yet, she does stand ready to strike a harder line on migration policy as asylum-seekers continue to arrive by boat. (Italy has already received 85,000 migrants from across the Mediterranean this year.) On Sunday, two rescue ships that made port in Sicily were told that children and people with medical problems were allowed off the ships, but able-bodied men were not considered “vulnerable” and must remain on board. The ships were then ordered to leave, but their captains refused to budge. Rights groups and Italian opposition politicians say Italy’s decision violates EU law and the Geneva Convention. Meloni knows that many Italians expect a harder line on asylum policy and that greenlighting the entry of all migrants encourages more people to take the risky journey across the Med. This standoff is just the beginning of the Meloni government’s battle with EU officials and aid groups over an issue that provokes strong emotions on both sides.
Rainforest cartel!
Well if the world’s largest oil exporters can form a cartel to influence crude prices, why can’t the world’s largest rainforest superpowers do the same to control deforestation? That’s precisely the idea behind a plan by Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo to form a new “OPEC of Rainforests.” The three countries are home to more than half of the world’s total tropical forests, which environmentalists say are crucial “lungs of the earth” to mitigate the global warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The grouping would coordinate on limiting deforestation while also advancing proposals for developed countries to help finance conservation efforts in the Global South. This issue is a big one at COP27: Developing countries bear the brunt of climate change catastrophes while — with the exception of big polluters China and India — emitting relatively little. One major boon to the Rainforest OPEC idea was the election last week of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil. He has pledged to eliminate Amazon deforestation during his term. That’s a sharp contrast with outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, whose pro-farmer policies caused a significant uptick in Amazon deforestation in recent years.
Gangster fuel politics rock Haiti
Jimmy Cherizier, a former cop who goes by the name "Barbecue" as Haiti's top gangster, says he's lifted the blockade on the main fuel terminal in the capital, Port-au-Prince. In theory, that should ease a severe shortage that has forced gas stations to close, hospitals to run only essential services amid a cholera outbreak, and banks and grocery stores to open just for a few hours. But there's a problem: While Barbecue — perhaps under pressure from fresh UN sanctions against him — claims that truckers are now free to get fuel, no one knows if any fuel has actually left the terminal or who really controls it. Neither the government nor police have yet to react to Barbecue's announcement, celebrated by some Haitians who now openly call him "Monsieur President." Meanwhile, the UN keeps dragging its feet on holding a vote on deploying foreign troops to end the crisis, which started two months ago when embattled PM Ariel Henry suddenly scrapped much-needed fuel subsidies that made prices skyrocket. And what about ordinary Haitians? They remain cut off from fuel and helpless to do anything amid the ongoing fight between Barbecue and Henry in the perennial failed state.
Brothers of Italy party leader Giorgia Meloni attends the fourth voting session to elect the new parliament speaker in Rome.
What We’re Watching: Italy’s new leadership questions, Russia’s martial law, US midterm messaging
Meloni faces uphill battle in Italy
How long can any Italian government last? That’s a good question in a country that has had 67 governments in the past 76 years. Now Giorgia Meloni, head of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, is set to take over as prime minister, and the going won’t be easy. The economy is hurtling towards recession, says the IMF, while consumer prices are soaring, particularly for energy – in part due to the war in Ukraine. But while she has pledged continued support for Ukraine, Meloni’s coalition partner Silvio Berlusconi, head of Forza Italia, has signaled a different view. The aging former prime minister and media mogul is picking fights over ministerial posts, belittling Meloni publicly, and in a leaked recording, talked about recently exchanging liquor with Vladimir Putin while questioning Italy’s support for Kyiv. Berlusconi is a minor partner compared to the more powerful Matteo Salvini and his rightist League Party, but Meloni has also clashed with Salvini on energy matters. So we’ll be watching to see how warm and cozy this coalition stays as Meloni heads into a winter of troubles.
Putin declares martial law
Well, he still refuses to call it a “war,” but as Russian forces continue to reel from a Ukrainian counteroffensive, President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday declared martial law in four regions of Ukraine that he illegally annexed in September. The decree gives the local governors broad powers to forcibly relocate, detain, or otherwise restrict the liberties of the population. In a separate decree, Putin also expanded the powers of governors elsewhere in Russia proper to do the same. The move comes as officials in the province of Kherson, seized by Russia in early March, began evacuating large numbers of people ahead of a feared Ukrainian advance on the capital city. Kherson city is a key port located where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea. The surrounding region gives overland access from mainland Ukraine to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. With the recently sabotaged Kerch Strait bridge unlikely to be fully repaired before next summer, Kherson is a crucial strategic prize for both sides.
US midterms roundup: both sides taking best shots now
With the US midterm elections less than three weeks away, both Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on some key messages. The latest polling shows things edging the Republicans’ way, but the races remain extremely tight. President Joe Biden on Tuesday tried to light a fresh fire under Democrats by promising to Federally codify abortion rights if Democrats can improve on their effective 51-seat majority in the Senate and hold on to the House. Biden has also promised to release more crude from the US’ emergency stockpiles this winter to tamp down high energy costs. The GOP, for their part, are hammering the administration over their own voters’ key issues: the highest inflation in 40 years, an uptick in crime in some big cities, and record numbers of undocumented immigrants at the southern border. But House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday played a new card that we may see more of, promising to revisit support for Ukraine if his party retakes the House. His remarks expose a potential rift between America First Republicans, who are skeptical of supporting Ukraine, and more establishment GOP Russia hawks. Still, about two-thirds of Americans support Washington’s current policy of arming Ukraine.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Giorgia Meloni, leader of Italian far-right party Brothers of Italy, gestures during a campaign rally in Turin.
How far to the right is Italy’s soon-to-be prime minister?
Until recently, Giorgia Meloni was on the fringes of Italian politics. Now the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party is likely to become the country’s first female prime minister when Italians head to the polls on Sept. 25.
A self-styled anti-globalist, Meloni has for the most part embraced her far-right reputation within an Italian electorate that relishes anti-establishment candidates. But in an age when the term ‘far-right’ has become a catchall, what does Meloni really stand for and what will her election mean for Italy’s politics and economy?
Mother of the Brothers
Meloni – a former minister for youth in then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s cabinet – has headed the breakaway nationalist Brothers of Italy Party since 2014. Avowedly anti-immigrant and proud of its nativist bonafides, the party has roots in Italy’s neofascist parties of the 1940s.
Meloni’s party is currently slated to reap 25% of the vote, while her three-party coalition – including Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – would together secure around 45%. The bloc, expected to win majorities in both legislative chambers, could even win a two-thirds supermajority. Importantly, this would allow it to make constitutional changes without holding a referendum.
Indeed, Meloni’s conservative far-right credentials are well-established. In refusing to join former Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s center-left national unity government last year, she emerged as an attractive candidate for protest voters (Salvini and Berlusconi both supported it). She has called immigration to Italy a form of “ethnic substitution” and has rallied against globalist elites as well as the “LGBT lobby.”
A former journalist and Italy’s youngest-ever cabinet minister, Meloni is not your run-of-the-mill far-right nationalist. Unsurprisingly, she is not a huge fan of the European Union, saying at a recent debate: “If I win, for Europe, the fun is over,” adding that Brussels should leave “the issues closest to the lives of citizens” to member states. What’s more, the Brothers have aligned in the European parliament with Poland’s Law and Justice Party that’s long been on a collision course with the EU.
Still, Meloni’s not a proponent of tear-it-down politics. Unlike her coalition partners, Meloni is firmly pro-NATO and supports Brussels’ ongoing economic sanctions on Russia. But Meloni also says that European solidarity “has limits,” calling out Germany in particular for opposing caps on the price of gas because of contracts with Russian state energy companies.
A tricky balancing act. Meloni appears to have tempered her tough-on-Brussels stance in recent weeks, emphasizing that she’s not keen to pick fights and will prioritize Italy’s economy, burdened by massive debt and an energy crunch.
A savvy politician who joined the political fray as a student, Meloni also knows that solid ties with Brussels are crucial to keeping Italy’s economy afloat. As part of Brussels’ bloc-wide pandemic recovery plan, Rome is slated to get almost 200 billion euros from the EU Commission. Brussels also bailed out Rome in 2012 from a debt crisis, and although Italy’s debt to GDP ratio remains sky-high – more than 150% at the end of 2021, which puts it in the world’s top 10 – it is manageable only because the European Central Bank has bought much of Italy’s debt.
“European debt substitutes Italy's debt,” says Carlo Bastasin, a Europe economic and political expert at the Brookings Institution. Indeed, the ECB bought 250 billion euros worth of Italian debt between March 2020 and December 2021 to stabilize the eurozone.
However, the doling out of post-COVID funds is contingent on Italy enforcing structural economic reforms. The incoming far-right coalition has said the EU provisions should be amended given recent geopolitical developments. But it has also proposed broad tax cuts among other big spending schemes that will certainly make for some frosty conversations in Brussels.
One of the most important factors in determining the stability of the government, Bastasin says, “is how the European Central Bank will manage the required increase in interest rates” to curb inflation. If its intervention is too heavy- handed, he says, it might “corner Italy’s government, making its financial situation unstable and the basis of the government wobbly.”
As Italy prepares to usher in its most Eurosceptic government in years, some analysts have pointed to Hungary’s complex relationship with Brussels as a sign of what’s to come. Under ultra-conservative PM Viktor Orbán, Budapest has refused to comply with EU reforms needed to unlock much-needed cash. But Bastasin says the comparison between the two is flawed: “Hungary has been subsidized by the EU Commission and EU partners forever, while Italy is a net creditor to the Commission. It gives to Brussels more than it receives.”
What’s more, he adds, Italians, for the most part, have a lot of love for the European Union. “In Poland and Hungary they don't have the same affinity for European integration. They never have.”
Meloni is likely to come into office with a solid mandate to govern, but the road ahead will be anything but smooth.
From left to right, Lega leader Matteo Salvini, Brothers leader Giorgia Meloni, and former Italian PM and Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi.
How will the far right run Italy?
On Sept. 25, Italians head to the polls to vote in a snap parliamentary election triggered by the collapse of PM Mario Draghi's fragile coalition government in late July. Political instability and short-lived governments are nothing new in Italy, which has churned through 18 of them in the past 34 years. Now, though, an alliance of far-right parties is widely favored to win power for the first time since the end of World War II in a country with bitter memories of fascist rule. What will that government look like, and what can we expect from it? We asked Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi.
What would a far-right government look like?
It'll probably be a coalition led by the far-far-right Brothers (Fratelli d’Italia) Party, with the far-right Lega and the center-right Forza Italia parties as junior partners. If the Brothers and Lega do extremely well, there’s a chance they could do without Forza Italia (probably the smaller of the three), but this is unlikely, and they sort of come as a package.
Who would lead it?
The smart money is on Giorgia Meloni, Brothers’ shrewd leader, since the deal is that whichever party wins the most votes gets to pick the prime minister. Brothers will most likely win the most votes (and seats) of the three, and probably of any party in fact. The next PM need not be the leader of the party; in fact, looking at the last few years, prime ministers come and go every 1-2 years on average, but party leaders tend to be more durable. So it’s possible that Meloni could select another high-profile figure for the post, contenting herself to run the show from the sidelines. But she has recently dispelled this, signaling very clearly that she has her eye on the top job.
What would it mean for migration?
Given the structural drivers of migration (population growth, climate change, drought, food prices, food insecurity), the problem is only going to get worse. With chronic instability in Libya, and an unpoliceable border at sea, Italy cannot rely on Europe’s time-tested methods of co-opting autocrats to police migration flows from Algeria, Egypt, or Turkey.
Lega boss Matteo Salvini was Italy's interior minister from 2018 to 2019, when his party briefly ruled the country in a coalition with the populist 5-Star movement after the 2018 election. So we have an idea of what that looks like: generate as much noise as possible while shifting as much of the blame as possible to the EU for what is in fact a largely intractable problem. In practice, this may involve denying safe harbor and rescue rights for migrants in waters under Italian jurisdiction, while clamoring for a more equitable distribution of asylum-seekers in the EU, and more EU funding to deal with the issue – neither of which is likely.
The other option, to which Italy has resorted with some success in the past, is paying off Libyan militias to police flows — effectively holding tens of thousands of migrants in jails and internment camps, usually in appalling conditions.
What about relations with the EU?
Meloni has so far been careful to come across as moderate and as a credible partner, including vis-à-vis Brussels and Washington. None of the three parties wants to ditch the euro, let alone the EU. Having seen what the Eurozone debt crisis meant for Greece, they are not keen to go down that road, and probably won’t openly antagonize the EU initially.
However, Brothers and Lega remain fundamentally populist nationalist parties. Their basic instinct will be to reject unpopular demands from Brussels if they go counter to their electoral interests, or to foster and leverage anti-EU sentiment to shore up support for their cause in the face of a faltering economy.
Despite the leadership’s moderate turn, Brothers’ base remains rooted in the far-right, as do its rank-and-file lawmakers. Competition within the coalition also has the potential to lead to a dangerous race to the bottom, notably between Lega and Brothers — who are competing for the same electorate to some extent. Indeed, this was arguably one of the main structural factors leading to Draghi’s downfall.
Also, the fringe Italexit party — which does want Italy out of the EU — will probably meet the 3% of the vote threshold to enter parliament. Although it'll likely remain out of the coalition, Lega and Brothers will have a new competitor to contend with outside government as well.
Lastly, the broader macroeconomic context is also unhelpful. Rising inflation will prompt greater demands for fiscal stimulus and salary increases across the board, which the government will struggle to manage.
What would it do with Draghi’s stalled reforms to get EU pandemic recovery cash?
Many of the reforms required for the December review have already been legislated, so in a sense, the hard work is done. However, in most cases, the government still has to issue the legislation necessary to actually implement the reforms, which will be difficult to do by the end of the year. So the December tranche (just under 1% of GDP) of EU money will at the very least be delayed well into 2023, with direct repercussions for Italy's economic growth outlook.
Going forward, the reforms calendar will suffer, and further disbursements will also be at risk. There is also a chance the new government might want to renegotiate parts of the Recovery Plan, which could lead to further delays.
Do these far-right parties stand a better or worse chance of getting along compared to previous coalition governments?
Italy’s complex electoral system gives electoral coalitions a big advantage over parties running individually. Lega and Forza Italia formed part of Draghi’s national unity coalition. Meanwhile, Brothers had been leading the opposition and climbed steadily in the polls as a result, mainly at Lega’s expense. Yet, true to form, the three quickly closed ranks once elections were triggered, and announced they would run as a bloc.
Going forward, they also have strong incentives to keep the coalition together, though competition between them could have important implications for the policy outlook. Only a significant decline in support for any of the three parties could increase the risk of another snap election.