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Supporters of political party Rise Mzansi attend a protest march calling for the delivery of basic services in the Western Cape ahead of the general election in Cape Town, South Africa May 22, 2024.
Viewpoint: As South Africa's democracy turns 30, Mandela's ANC faces toughest election yet
South African voters will decide on May 29 whether to give another five-year mandate to the African National Congress, the political party that helped bring about the country’s transition to multi-racial democracy in 1994 and has ruled ever since.
Amid intense scrutiny of the ANC’s 30-year record – especially its failure to address economic problems and an electricity supply crisis – the polls show the party at risk of losing its parliamentary majority. Contributing to its woes is the reemergence of Jacob Zuma, a controversial former president and party leader, who is supporting a new political formation threatening to steal votes from the ANC.
We sat down with Eurasia Group’s Ziyanda Stuurman to learn more about the upcoming vote.
How has the 30th anniversary of the transition to democracy played in the election campaign?
A number of opposition parties have harped on the idea that the ANC hasn’t delivered what it promised at the advent of democracy and that South Africa needs new leaders. They say that if the country is going to change course on unemployment, inequality, and poverty, there is no better time to do it than this year. The ANC, on the other hand, is positioning itself as the defender of democracy and calling on voters to support the people who fought against apartheid and preserve the legacy of Nelson Mandela, the country’s first democratically elected president.
Does the ANC have concrete achievements it can point to from its 30 years in power?
Yes, the party has been touting progress on a range of development indicators. These include increasing the proportion of households with access to electricity from 57% to 89% between 1996 and 2021, increasing the share of households with access to piped water from 44% to 60% between 1996 and 2022, and building 3.4 million low-cost houses between 1996 and 2022.
What do voters think? Why has support for the ANC declined?
One long-running concern is unemployment. The unemployment rate is over 30%, with youth unemployment closer to 60%. The country has struggled to generate jobs for decades, but the problem intensified when Zuma was president from 2009 to 2018, investment slumped, and the economy stagnated.
A more pressing concern at the moment is the crisis of electricity supply caused by corruption and mismanagement at power utility Eskom. The situation has improved somewhat this year, but in 2023 the country suffered frequent blackouts. When the government literally can’t keep the lights on, that’s the type of thing that really sours voter sentiment. Finally, many people have been disappointed with President Cyril Ramaphosa, who assumed office after Zuma resigned following years of allegations of sweeping corruption in his government.
Why this disappointment?
I think there were a lot of unrealistic expectations that Ramaphosa, a successful businessman, would quickly turn the country around. He’s just one man and the ANC is a very big organization. Moreover, he has had to deal with the fallout from crises such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. He has made progress rebuilding institutions that suffered during Zuma’s tenure such as the tax authority and the judiciary. But I think that many people see these issues as far removed from their lives and things like the price of bread and fuel and so on.
Ramaphosa himself has been tainted by allegations of wrongdoing, right? What is the status of the investigation into the alleged fraudulent activities at his Phala Phala farm?
It’s turned out to be mostly a damp squib. Right now there are four suspects on trial for breaking and entering at the farm, but very little has been tied to the president (he was alleged to have covered up the theft of a large sum of money to avoid scrutiny). When the story broke in 2022, his approval ratings suffered, but they have since recovered. I highly doubt that the average person is thinking of Phala Phala as an issue. Ramaphosa is a wealthy man, so people just think, “ok, a rich man got robbed. So what?”
Meanwhile, Zuma has made a comeback. What has been the impact of his new party? And given his legal troubles, can he serve in parliament?
The Constitutional Court has just put the final nail in the coffin for Zuma’s ambitions to get reelected to parliament and becoming president again. It ruled that his contempt of court conviction for refusing to testify in a public inquiry on corruption made him ineligible to stand for parliament. Moreover, the impact of his new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, and its ability to steal votes from the ANC has been greatly exaggerated by the media. Some polls have given it a 14% share of the national vote, which would make it the third-largest party in the country. But there are substantial problems with South African polling, and I don’t think it will obtain anywhere near that share of the vote.
If the ANC does lose its parliamentary majority, what would that mean for the country?
I think the ANC is likely to retain its majority, and if falls short, it’s not likely to be by much. That means the ANC could form a coalition government with one or more small, ideologically aligned parties, which would not have much impact on government policies. In fact, Ramaphosa could probably move faster on some of his priorities in a second term. In a less likely scenario of a much worse showing for the ANC, say a vote share of about 40%, then it would be forced to partner with one of the bigger opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance or the Economic Freedom Fighters. This would force bigger policy changes (the DA is more fiscally conservative, while the EFF is more left-wing) and result in an unstable coalition. I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.
Edited by Eurasia Group Senior Editor Jonathan House.
World leaders: Thanks for nothing!
This Thursday, many of our readers — particularly in the US — will celebrate Thanksgiving.
At worst, it’s a day to argue with your relatives about super-chill topics like climate change, racism, abortion, or cancel culture (here’s a useful guide for that.)
But at best, it’s an opportunity to take a moment, look around, and recognize the things you’re grateful for in this life.
And it’s not just you — our world leaders have much to be thankful for as well. Here, then, is a partial list of global gratitude:
US President Joe Biden: God love ya, Donald, I’m grateful you’re gonna run again! You’re probably the only fella I can beat in 2025, I mean ‘24. Don’t you go messing this up, Florida Gov. Ronda Sannis!
Former US President Donald Trump: Even though I am still VERY unfairly treated by the FAKE media and radical left psychopaths who are doing so much to ruin our beautiful COUNTRY, I am grateful that I continue to be the person I admire most: ME. #Trump2024
Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani:Shukran! We are so thankful to the billions of fans who aren’t fazed by our little kingdom’s human rights fiascos and dodgy FIFA dealings — and we’re especially grateful that the world’s second-largest economy is among them.
Twitter boss Elon Musk: Hey so yeah thanks for the extremely hard work of the 18 guys — literally all guys — who still work for me here. But what I’d REALLY like is can Trump get back on Twitter already? Kanye is good LOLs, sure — but I need more mayhem to make this $44 billion worth it.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen: Just grateful for the immense difference that a well-placed strait makes. For now …
Chinese leader Xi Jinping: For now indeed, Ms. Tsai. For my part, I’m thankful that COVID — wherever it came from — had an upside! It’s been a capital excuse to lock down a billion or so people and show the Party “Hu’s” boss.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel: To be honest, I happy to just be OUT of all this mess entirely. Keeping my notifications OFF. Noch eine Piña Colada, bitte!
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Nature is a wonder, a gift. Today I’m grateful to the sedimentary deposits of the prehistoric Tethys Ocean, which — so many hundreds of millions of years later — have helped my country to get rich, and enabled me to get away with ... oh, you know, stuff …
Argentine President Alberto Fernández:Gracias a Messi and the squad for getting humiliated by Saudi Arabia. You have given the Argentines something even worse than the economy to be depressed about for the next week.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un: I am grateful to the sea for so graciously putting up with the missiles that I fire into it – constantly, angrily, pointlessly. WHY IS NO ONE PAYING ATTENTION TO ME? WHY?
Brazilian President-elect Lula: I am now a card-carrying member of the Pandemic Gratitude Club founded by Joe Biden. If not for COVID, I don’t think either of us would have won. Obrigadão!
Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr: Not only am I grateful for the world’s best nickname, I also can’t thank today’s Filipino youth enough. They have no idea who my dad was, so they all voted for me! Bongbong loves the kids!
UK PM Rishi Sunak: Grateful indeed to have made it past the “head-of-lettuce” stage of my premiership. Still, it was perhaps foolish to give up swimming through my pools of gold coins just to take charge of the world’s sickest advanced economy.
South Africa’s former President Jacob Zuma: Grateful, my friends, for a little extra time by the pool before I head back to jail, again.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni: I just want to say grazie mille to Matteo Salvini, whose self-destructive antics have opened so very many opportunities for me. But Silvio, you stay the hell away from me…
Signal writers: We’re grateful to have the best job and readers in the world. It’s a pleasure to write for you and to chat/spar with those of you who write in — either to show love or (especially) to take issue with our work.
You: What are you, dear reader, grateful for? Let us know here.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A man walks past Sinn Fein election posters along the nationalist Falls Road in Belfast.
What We're Watching: Elections in Northern Ireland, South African president in trouble
Northern Ireland’s choice
On Thursday, voters across the UK head to the polls for local elections, but it’s the contest in Northern Ireland that might make history. Sinn Féin is expected to finish with the most seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly. Its victory would be more symbolic than immediately substantive, since power in the assembly must be shared between the two lead parties, and Sinn Féin has focused its campaign on today’s economic hardship, not on a century of Irish partition. But the symbolism matters. A Sinn Féin win would mark the first time in Northern Ireland’s 101-year history that the UK province is led by a party that supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. It would make Sinn Féin the most popular party on both sides of the Irish border. And it would prove deeply embarrassing for UK PM Boris Johnson, who is fighting for his scandal-plagued political life at the moment and considering another battle with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s place in the EU’s single market.
Ramaphosa on the ropes
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa is in a slump these days. Last weekend, angry miners booed him off stage during a May Day rally, the level of anger seemingly taking many by surprise. Ramaphosa's own party is divided over his anti-corruption efforts, and he's being blasted by the opposition for not fixing South Africa's problems, mainly sky-high unemployment and a chronic power crisis. And to top it all off, the country is suffering its fifth COVID wave. The clock is ticking for Ramaphosa, who hopes to be re-elected in December as head of the ruling African National Congress, which has dominated politics in South Africa in the post-apartheid era. Ramaphosa will likely face a tough challenger from the ANC's activist wing, which is aligned with his predecessor Jacob Zuma, forced to resign in 2018. Zuma's staying power within the ANC cannot be overstated: last July, his 15-month prison sentence for corruption sparked the worst nationwide riots since minority white rule ended in 1994. If Ramaphosa loses the battle for ANC leadership, he'll probably have to step down as president — as Thabo Mbeki did in 2008 to make way for Zuma. Can Ramaphosa get back his mojo in time to keep his job?A supporter of the African National Congress (ANC) looks on ahead of the launch of an election manifesto at the church square in Pretoria, South Africa, September 27, 2021.
What We're Watching: South Africa's local elections
ANC feels heat as South Africa votes. South Africans go to the polls on Monday to vote in local elections, which are viewed as the biggest test for the ruling ANC party since the end of apartheid. The ANC, which has won every nationwide election since 1994, could lose control of major cities, including Johannesburg, to the opposition Democratic Alliance and coalitions of small independent parties because many South Africans are fed up with government corruption and dysfunction. Indeed, ongoing power outages are being blamed on a state-owned power utility long suspected of graft, and crumbling infrastructure on years of financial mismanagement by successive ANC-led governments. President Cyril Ramaphosa, an ANC stalwart, has admitted (some) party mistakes, and required all ANC candidates to sign a non-enforceable pledge to improve public services. More broadly, it's also the first time the ANC will face voters since the deadly riots that followed former president Jacob Zuma's conviction for contempt of court last July. Zuma is now on parole while he faces trial for corruption, but he remains immensely popular with the ANC's left wing — and a thorn in the side of his successor Ramaphosa.
South Africa: Rule of law or cult of personality?
Imagine for a moment that you have been elected president of a major country because of your promises to root out corruption and kickstart the economy. Now imagine that the moment you arrest the most corrupt person in your country's history, the streets explode in a destructive orgy of riots and looting in response.
This is the situation currently facing South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa. In recent days, he has deployed the army to control the worst upheaval the country has seen in decades. Malls and warehouses have been ransacked and torched. Dozens have been reported killed. Hundreds have been arrested.
How'd we get here and what comes next for Africa's most advanced economy?
The backstory. Last week, South Africa's supreme court sentenced former president Jacob Zuma to 15 months in prison for failing to appear at a hearing on allegations of corruption during his presidency, which lasted from 2009 to 2018. Zuma also stands accused in a multibillion-dollar graft scheme linked to an 1999 arms deal negotiated when he was deputy president. After initially rebuffing the court order, he turned himself in. That's when the trouble started.
Zuma is a complicated figure. A wildly charismatic hero of the struggle against apartheid who was once jailed alongside Nelson Mandela, he rose to lead the African National Congress, South Africa's most powerful political party, and was elected president in 2008. But his political legacy is tainted by corruption scandals and other improprieties.
After widespread discontent over corruption cost the ANC in local elections in 2016, party moderates sidelined Zuma, paving the way for Ramaphosa, a union-boss-turned-tycoon, to take over with promises to tackle corruption and boost economic growth. The ANC made him party leader in 2018 and he won a popular vote a year later.
The trouble for Ramaphosa is that Zuma is still very, very popular, in particular within his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, as well as among more radical, leftwing elements of the ANC suspicious of Ramaphosa's enthusiasm for market-oriented economic reforms. Zuma's own foundation warned on Twitter that there would be no "peace and stability" until the 79-year old Zuma is released from prison. They were right.
But Zuma's arrest is only part of the story these days. The crafty — and grafty — old politician's jailing may have lit the fuse for protests, but the dynamite was laid by other issues.
First, South Africa is still reeling from the pandemic. The country has already recorded the highest death rate per 100,000 people in Africa, and the tenth highest in the world. As a third wave of infections swells, fresh lockdowns are in place. Barely 2 percent of the country's 60 million people have been vaccinated as South Africa, like the rest of the continent, struggles to get access to jabs that have been bought up by wealthier countries.
That comes on top of an already dire socio-economic situation. The unemployment rate tops 30 percent overall, but nearly half of people under 35 are jobless. Racial divides are still deep — more than a quarter of a century since the end of apartheid, two thirds of Black South Africans live in poverty. And in 2019, the World Bank called South Africa the most economically unequal country in the world.
Part of the reason things are so bad is...corruption. The country ranks 69th out of 180 countries in Transparency International's latest Corruption Perceptions Index, and has actually fallen five spots over the past decade. Graft saps resources and opportunities from everyone in South Africa, but particularly those less well-off.
Which brings us back to the protests and riots of the past few days. Holding a powerful former leader to account for corruption sends a strong signal. But with the streets on fire for doing just that, South Africa faces a critical question: what will prevail, the new president's rule of law or the old one's cult of personality?
What We're Watching: Bolsonaro criminal probe, Lebanon's "social explosion," Zuma defies court, Putin's definition of champagne
Bolsonaro probe heats up: A smattering of protests broke out in cities across Brazil this weekend after the Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for a criminal probe into President Jair Bolsonaro for "dereliction of duty" linked to procurement of COVID vaccines. What's this all about? A recent congressional inquiry into Bolsonaro's broad handling of the COVID crisis revealed that he knew — and failed to report to authorities — a shady deal negotiated by his health ministry to buy jabs from a private Indian pharmaceutical company for more than 10 times the price originally quoted. The allegations have sparked fresh calls to impeach Bolsonaro, but conviction would require support from two-thirds of the lower house of Congress, an unlikely scenario given Bolsonaro's broad web of alliances in parliament. Still, the unfolding political drama is indeed having an impact on the street cred of the populist president, who rose to power on an anti-establishment, anti-corruption platform: Bolsonaro's net approval rating now hovers at -23 percent. Brazilians, who have been pummeled by the COVID crisis, will surely be watching the probe very closely ahead of next year's presidential vote. The timing is not great for Bolsonaro, whose nemesis, leftwing former president Lula, is gaining steam in the polls.
Lebanon's impending "social explosion:'' Lebanon's financial and social crises have been deepening for months, but Prime Minister Hassan Diab recently warned that a "social explosion" is imminent. Gas and electricity shortages have intensified, prompting nationwide protests. Recent reports detail Lebanese lining up for hours to fill up their vehicles, with some even pushing their cars because of the dire fuel scarcity situation. For months, Lebanon's fractious transitional government has passed ad hoc measures to try and address the worsening economic crisis: Parliament recently passed a $556 million food ration program to help Lebanese buy basic goods (half of Lebanese now live below the poverty line) but it's unclear how the cash-strapped state will pay for it. As we've written before, the current mess is a direct result of a severe economic crisis that started in late 2019 as a result of decades of corruption and mismanagement. It was then turbocharged by the fallout from the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, which left Lebanon without a functioning government. Last month, the World Bank said that Lebanon's economic crisis ranks among the world's most severe since the mid-1800s.
Zuma defies court — again: Jacob Zuma, South Africa's defiant former president, has refused to turn himself in to authorities after the country's top court sentenced him to 15-months in prison for failing to appear at an inquiry into corruption that occurred during his time in office. Zuma, who is 79, has launched several court appeals in recent days, saying that sentencing him to jail during a global pandemic is the same as "sentencing me to death." A stalwart of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party and close confidante of Nelson Mandela, Zuma served as president for nine years until 2018, when he was forced to resign amid graft allegations. But he retains an extremely loyal following: in recent days, hundreds of supporters formed a "human shield" outside his home, vowing to protect Zuma if police showed up to arrest him. Zuma, for his part, told the crowd that "a messy confrontation would've ensued if police dared to arrest me." The standoff is exacerbating tensions within the already-divided ANC, making life hard for Zuma's successor and former ally, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has pledged to bring "ethics into politics."
What We're Ignoring:
Putin's definition of champagne: Fresh tensions are bubbling between Moscow and Europe, after Vladimir Putin signed a law that says only Russian producers of fizzy white wine can use the term "champagne" on their products in Russia. As anyone who's spent (and can remember) a new year's celebration with Russians knows, the country has long produced its own "Sovyetskoye Shampanskoye" (Soviet Champagne), a glorious, festive, splitting headache in a bottle. Much of the stuff is made in southern Russia, as well as in Crimea, the peninsula of Ukraine which Moscow annexed in 2014 and is trying to prop up as best it can now. Meanwhile, the makers of actual champagne are popping mad now, with market leader Moët Hennessy pledging to halt all exports to Russia until a solution can be found. The EU is making its usual "why I oughta!" strong statements, but will flutes go empty in Russia now? The country imports about 50 million liters of sparkling wine annually, of which about 13 percent is from the Champagne region of France, according toDrinks Business, a trade publication.
What We’re Watching: Australia cancels China deals, Zuma without lawyers, US to recognize Armenian genocide
Australia rips up Belt & Road deal: Australia cancelled two 2018 deals signed between Victoria, Australia's wealthiest state, and the Chinese government, that committed the two sides to working together on initiatives under China's Belt and Road infrastructure development program. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that the agreements "were adverse to our foreign relations." Similar deals between Victoria and institutions in Iran and Syria were also abandoned by the Australian government this week, under a 2020 law that allows Canberra to nullify international agreements struck at local and state level. (Australian universities say the "foreign veto bill" amounts to "significant overreach.") Meanwhile, Beijing hit back, calling the move "unreasonable and provocative," and accusing Canberra of further stoking divisions after a series of escalatory moves by both sides that have seen China-Australia relations deteriorate to their worst point in decades. Chinese investment in Australia dropped by 62 percent last year, a massive blow for Australia's export-reliant economy.
Zuma's lawyers quit: Jacob Zuma's entire legal team has thrown in the towel just a month before the former South African president's high-stakes corruption trial. The lawyers have yet to explain why they've dropped Zuma, but regardless it will make it much harder for him to prove he is innocent of 16 charges of racketeering, fraud, corruption and money laundering related to a $2 billion arms deal from the 1990s. Zuma — who was forced to step down in 2018 over this corruption scandal — has long decried the trial as a political witch hunt, stonewalling all requests for evidence and often not showing up when he was due in court. But the process is a major test for South Africa's judiciary to demonstrate it can actually hold people in power to account for corruption. Zuma's successor and former ally, President Cyril Ramaphosa, will be watching very closely.
US to recognize Armenian genocide: A hundred years after the Ottomans tried to exterminate the empire's Armenian population, US President Joe Biden will officially recognize the campaign as a genocide on Saturday. Biden's decision, first sniffed out last month by our very own Ian Bremmer — makes him the first sitting US president to make the designation, joining nearly 30 other countries that have already done so. Although the move is purely symbolic, it risks hurting relations with Turkey, modern successor to the Ottoman Empire and which for decades has denied that as many as 1.5 million Armenians were intentionally massacred or marched to their deaths during and after World War I. With ties between the US and Turkey, a NATO ally, already strained over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasing authoritarianism and his defense dalliances with Russia, expect some fireworks between Washington and Ankara in the coming days.Hard Numbers: Zuma's day in court, Burkina Faso’s civilian killings, the soaring cost of water in the US, and Trump's H1B visa hit
16: Former South African President Jacob Zuma appeared in court Tuesday to be tried on 16 corruption charges linked to his decade running the country. Zuma says the charges are part of a political "witch hunt," but his critics say the trial is a rare example of the country's judicial system actually holding people in power to account after years of government corruption.
2000: As jihadist violence continues to cripple Burkina Faso, more than 2,000 people have been killed in that country in the last 18 months. The bloodshed has long-been attributed to attacks by Islamic State and Al-Qaeda offshoots, but now a chilling New York Times expose reveals that Burkina Faso's armed forces – the soldiers meant to protect civilians – kill as many civilians as jihadists do.
80: As the economic pain caused by the coronavirus continues to plague American families, new data shows that water bills in the US have risen by an average of 80 percent over the past decade. Millions of families now risk having their water and sewage service cut off – or losing their homes – if they can't pay their bills, according to new findings by the Guardian.
75: About 75 percent of all US workers who hold the coveted H1B visa come from a single country: India. Only 25 percent of the visa's holders are women. President Trump on Monday suspended new applications for the visa as part of a wider halt to legal immigration, saying that foreign workers pose an "unusual threat" to American workers. Many in the US business community, meanwhile, denounced the move and could even challenge it in court.