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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on March 30, 2025.
Japan courts both the US and China on security and trade
The two countries agreed tospeed up plans to jointly develop and produce missiles such as Advanced Medium-Range Air to Air Missiles, or MRAAM, and consider producing SM-6 surface-to-air missiles. Japan and the US will also accelerate the maintenance of American warships and warplanes at its air bases in Japan and boost defense industries in both countries.
But America isn’t Japan’s only friend in the neighborhood. On the same day that Hegseth met with Nakatani, the trade ministers of South Korea, China, and Japan held theirfirst economic dialogue since 2020 in Seoul. The three countries are seeking to strengthen their economic relationship in the face of US tariffs set to rise on “liberation day,” April 2. Their next meeting will take place in Japan.Members of the Lawyers from Across Japan for the Victims of the Unification Church（LAJAVUC）attend a press conference as the Tokyo District Court issued a dissolution order to the Unification Church, the religious group formerly called the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, in Tokyo on March 25, 2025.
Japan bans Moonies
On Tuesday, a Tokyo court revoked the legal status of the Unification Church in Japan, ordering the sect known as the Moonies to disband following a government problem spurred by the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022.
Founded in 1954 in Seoul, South Korea, by Sun Myung Moon, a preacher who cast himself as a messiah, the church raised an estimated 70% of its income in Japan, where its followers heavily pressured Japanese to give donations known as tithings to make up for the brutality of the country’s imperial era.
Widely derided as a cult, the Moonies claimed less than 100,000 followers in Japan in recent years – less than .1% of the country’s population, but pseudo and new-wave religious groups are popular in Japan, with an estimated 180,000 of them, or one for every 700 people. The Unification Church enjoyed outsize influence in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that has governed Japan for most of the post-war era. Moon was a close friend of Abe’s grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, who saw the sect as an ally against communism. The Moonies retained political influence by fundraising and promoting hundreds of candidates from the LDP.
In 2022, Tetsuya Yamagami admitted to killing Abe in an act of purported retribution after his mother, who was involved with the Moonies, donated over $1 million to the church. The confessed assassin accused Abe for allowing the church, which he blamed for leaving his family bankrupt, to prosper in Japan.
The church said Tuesday’s dissolution order was “absolutely unacceptable” and a threat to religious freedom. It is considering an immediate appeal, but David Boling, Japan director at Eurasia Group doesn't believe that will amount to much. “No one is interested in defending the church," he says. "The attitude of the Japanese public is ‘good riddance.’”
Congolese civilians who fled from Bukavu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, following clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, carry their belongings as they gather at the Rusizi border crossing point to return home, in Rusizi district, Rwanda, on Feb. 17, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Rebels advance in DRC, Yuge trade corridor, Tragic flooding strikes US, UN seeks billions for Sudan, Taliban visits Japan, Plane crashes in Toronto
350,000: M23 rebels are meeting little resistance in their advance on Bukavu in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, further challenging Kinshasa’s rule. This move comes after the Rwandan-backed rebels seized control of Goma late last month and just two days after the UN warned that unrest in the country has displaced 350,000 people.
600: Israel and India are working on a free trade agreement they hope to announce as early as 2025. Israeli and Indian business leaders held over 600 meetings in New Delhi last week, on cybersecurity, smart agriculture, renewable energy, digital health, and water technologies, AI, and big data. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to push for the rail and shipping corridor advocated by his predecessor, Joe Biden, to connect India to the Middle East, Europe, and the US, which he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi call “one of the greatest trade routes in all of history.”
10: Severe flooding claimed the lives of at least 10 people in the United States over the weekend, including nine in Kentucky and one in Georgia. Storms walloped Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina, with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear saying that nearly 1,000 people had to be rescued.
6 billion: The United Nations announced on Monday that it wants to raise $6 billion for Sudan to help alleviate one of the world’s worst hunger crises caused by nearly two years of civil war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The need, the agency says, has increased 40% from last year’s appeal.
1: While Afghanistan’s Taliban government makes regular visits to countries close to home, such as Russia, China, and parts of Central Asia, this weekend it went further afield. The Taliban sent its first-ever delegation to Japan on Sunday to seek humanitarian support and to discuss establishing diplomatic ties with Japanese leaders. One Afghan leader said that the Taliban seeks “dignified interaction with the world for a strong, united, advanced, prosperous, developed Afghanistan.” Japan’s foreign ministry has not commented yet on the visit.
18: A Delta Airlines flight from Minneapolis crash-landed at Toronto's Pearson airport on Monday, injuring at least 18 people, three critically. The plane crashed and flipped upon landing at the airport, which is located just outside Toronto. All 80 passengers and crew are accounted for, and crews are on hand to investigate what happened.
Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher takes part in the Victory Day military parade general rehearsal on the Red Square in Moscow, Russia, on May 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: New records in global defense spending and journalist deaths, Car attack strikes Munich, Danes joke about buying California, Japan may u-turn on nuclear energy
2,460,000,000,000: In 2024, global defense spending rose to a new height of $2.46 trillion, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. Worth noting: The Kremlin outpaced all other European countries combined. Russia’s military expenditure equated $461.6 billion in purchase parity terms, eclipsing Europe’s $457 billion.
124: 2024 was the deadliest year for journalists on record since the Committee to Protect Journalists started tracking more than 30 years ago. At least 124 media workers were killed last year — nearly two-thirds of them in Gaza. The next deadliest nations were Sudan and Pakistan, with six deaths each.
20: At least 20 people, including children, were injured in Munich on Thursday when a driver plowed into a trade union demonstration. The driver was detained at the scene, and another man in the car, a Mini Cooper, was reportedly shot by police. The attack puts the German city on alert just a day before it's set to hold the 61st edition of the Munich Security Conference featuring world leaders. Some of those involved were critically injured, officials said.
200,000: A deeply unserious campaign for Denmark to purchase California from the United States gained significant traction online this week, following President Donald Trump’s repeated calls to purchase Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. So far, more than 200,000 people have signed the virtual petition to “Måke Califørnia Great Ægain.”
14: Nearly 14 years after an earthquake and tsunami led to a triple meltdown at the Fukushima power plant, the Japanese government is considering an about-face on its plans to limit reliance on nuclear power. A draft strategic energy plan from the trade and industry ministry calls for a “maximization” of nuclear power to help reach its emissions and energy security targets. The plan calls for around 20% to stem from nuclear reactors by 2040, 40-50% from renewables, and 30-40% from coal (down from 70% at present).
Endorsed by steelworkers onstage, then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump puts on a hard hat during his Make America Great Again Rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 19, 2024.
Trump tariffs steel and aluminum at 25%
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the US. This raises the tariff rate on aluminum to 25% from the previous 10% that Trump imposed in 2018, and it reinstates a 25% tariff on “millions of tons” of steel and aluminum imports previously exempted or excluded.
“Today I’m simplifying our tariffs on steel and aluminum,” Trump stated. “It’s 25% without exceptions or exemptions.”
Cue the negotiations. On Monday, Trump reportedly took a call from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is seeking a carve-out for Australian steel exports. Albanese described their conversation as “constructive and warm” but did not want to “speak on [Trump’s] behalf.”
The EU said it would respond with “firm and proportionate countermeasures.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeausaid Tuesday that the tariffs were “entirely unjustified” and “unacceptable,” noting that Canada – the US’ biggest source of aluminum and one of its top sources of steel – would respond if necessary but will try to work with the US administration to avoid them. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has also threatened countermeasures in recent weeks, said her country would keep a “cool head.”
The new US tariffs are set to take effect on March 4, and Trump added that he will also consider additional tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips.
Why now? Trump’s announcement came two days after the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced that Japan would increase its US investment to $1 trillion, including a commitment from Nippon Steel to “invest heavily” in US Steel, after a $15 billion buyout was nixed last year by the Biden administration. The deal is another reflection of Trump’s plan to strengthen domestic steel production and make imports less attractive – or even necessary.
Was there a connection? “It’s certainly possible,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling. “But we knew steel tariffs were coming — it was only a matter of time. While Trump is proud to be Tariff Man, he could also be called the Man of Steel. Steel is his favorite industry.” We’re waiting to see whether Ishiba picks up the phone like Albanese and leverages Nippon’s investment to lift the levies.Graphic Truth: Which major economy has the lowest tariffs?
The Biden administration scaled back the EU tariffs but built on the China tariffs with additional measures. The tariffed share of US imports is now the highest it has been in decades, and Trump has threatened to boost tariffs even more.
But he’s starting from what is still, despite all that, a low base. The US has the second-lowest tariff barriers among the G20, the group of the world’s largest economies.In 2023, the trade-weighted average US tariff rate – a measure that takes into account the mix of goods a country actually imports – was just 2.2%. Only Japan’s was lower. Canada’s, by comparison, was 3.4%. The EU’s was 2.7%. And India’s was a whopping 12%. Here’s a look at how all 20 economies stack up when it comes to levies at the border.Bitcoins are being displayed in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China, on June 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Wisconsin school shooting, Crypto keeps cooking, what Russia got out of A$$ad, Japan’s biggest bank makes huge apology, Brazil tracks DNA of gold
2: Police have identified that the shooter who opened fire at a Christian school in Wisconsin was a 15-year old female student. The shooter killed two people, a student and a teacher, and left six others severely injured before taking her own life.
106,000: Whether you see them as heroes or as villains, one thing is for sure: the crypto bros are absolutely cooking these days. The value of Bitcoin, the world’s largest crypto currency, has tripled in value this year, hitting a record high of $106,000 on Monday before settling back to a still-scorching $105,000. Investors in the currency are eagerly awaiting a crypto-friendly Trump administration. Last week Trump proposed creating a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin, akin to the US strategic oil reserves.
250 million: What did the Kremlin get out of supporting the now-deposed Syrian despot Bashar Assad for so long? At least $250 million, for one thing. According to a phenomenally detailed report by the Financial Times, Assad, under severe US and EU sanctions, airlifted two tons of cash in that amount to Moscow in 2018 and 2019, as part of a broader scheme of embedding Syrian interests in Russia’s financial system.
1 billion: Japan’s biggest bank on Monday apologized after one of its employees allegedly stole more than 1 billion yen (about $6.6 million) from clients’ safety deposit boxes. The thefts occurred over the past four years at two Tokyo branches of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, known as MUFG for short. Gomenasai indeed.
38: Call it the 23 and Me of Brazilian gold.Brazil, which has long struggled to rein in illegal mining in the Amazon, has developed a database that classifies samples of the metal from different regions, based on “radio-isotope scans and fluorescence spectroscopy” (we can’t tell you what that is but it sounds cool). This database of gold’s “DNA” has helped the authorities to better trace illegal gold hauls, boosting seizures of illegal gold by 38% in 2023 alone.