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AstraZeneca vaccine politics may further damage Europe's economy
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on the latest news in global politics on World In :60 - that is, :180.
First. What is going on with the AstraZeneca vaccine?
Well, around Europe, we have all of these countries that have suspended giving out AstraZeneca vaccines, because there have been some side effects of people that are taking it. Blood clots, a tiny number of folks, actually fewer side effects for AstraZeneca than we've seen for Pfizer, but it's become this big political show. After a few countries start shutting it down, others do because they can't be left by themselves. I just talked to a major senior official from one country saying, "Yeah, we were under pressure. We want to keep it going." World Health Organization said it's fine. AstraZeneca itself who has done the trials, say it's fine. And this is slowing down an already very slow vaccine rollout in Europe. They were doing a lot of things reasonably well in terms of dealing with the pandemic, but absolutely not this. They're a couple of months behind the United States right now in terms of getting to herd immunity. This is going to slow them down. It's going to hurt their economic growth this year. Okay.
Why are people protesting in Britain?
Well, big demonstrations opposed to the killing of a woman by serving member of the police force. Now there is proposed legislation that would limit demonstrations in the country. The demonstrations have been responded to with fairly aggressive policing, especially in the case of the UK, where police forces not carrying lethal force, the historic idea of the bobbies who are very well behaved and very little violence as a consequence in the UK. Knives are a big problem, but not gun violence. Well, it turns out that this is becoming a much more challenging, and as a consequence, the UK is trying to respond. There were certainly a lot of women that were protesting, were seen pushed down to the ground by police, serving on the same force as the fellow that had killed this woman. It's a challenge in the UK and Boris Johnson who had been doing well the last couple of weeks, has another thing that he's got to deal with.
Okay. And then finally, did you read Jared Kushner's op-ed on the middle East? What is the Biden administration's approach to the region compared to his predecessor?
Yeah, I thought it was a pretty good piece actually. First of all, basically came out and said that he thinks that what Biden is doing in China first and foremost, and in the Middle East, largely speaking, the right thing. They basically agree. Where they disagree is on the Iran deal. Kushner saying it was right of Biden to bring up the JCPOA and then back off, because the Iranians aren't serious. I think the Iranians are serious, but they're posturing because they can't be seen domestically before their own election in just accepting the old JCPOA deal. But I think that by the beginning of next year, that is what they will accept. Kushner doesn't think that's a good idea. He thinks that the US should not accept anything unless it's a broader, tougher deal that includes ballistic missile limitations, includes limiting of funding, for example, for proxies in the region and extremist groups. I think that may be possible over the medium to long-term, but in the near-term, I think both sides will end up accepting almost exactly the old JCPOA, maybe with an extended timeline around it. That means the Iranians will stop with their expanded nuclear capability development and they'll also have about a million more barrels a day of oil being produced, which means prices will go down.
Trump's chances of proving election interference are over
Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, offers insights on US politics:
Is Trump out of options now that William Barr said the DOJ found no election interference?
Trump's problem isn't William Barr not finding election interference, it's that he lost the election and he lost it by millions of votes, and he lost it in the most important key states by tens of thousands of votes. Now, this was a very close election. The three closest states, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, Trump only lost by 44,000 votes so far, and if he'd ended up winning those three, we'd have an Electoral College tie. But the election was not close enough that Trump's strategy of trying to kick this to the courts and then getting it to go all the way to the Congress, with an alternate slate of electors, it just wasn't possible. Had the election been a little closer, he might've had a shot. But as it is, his chances are over. Joe Biden's going to be inaugurated on January 20th.
Will Biden's new economic team be able to make progress on a COVID stimulus plan?
This is really out of the hands of Biden's economic team, and it's all about what Congress wants to do. We've seen a lot of progress this week, starting with a bipartisan proposal that came out of the Senate, that a bunch of House members quickly signed up for that forced Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer to come down from their $2 trillion number much closer to the compromised $900 billion number. Now the ball is in President Trump's court. If he wants to get a deal, he can send signals to Senate Republicans that he wants to move closer to that $900 billion number. And if no deal gets done, they always have the fallback position of simply extending some of the expiring provisions of the Cares Act into January or February of next year so they can come back and fight another day.
Reports that Trump discussed pardons with his three eldest children begs for an important question, what about Tiffany?
Well, poor Tiffany has always been the forgotten daughter, but I think the reality is these reports are pretty ridiculous. There's no clear crimes that any of the children have been accused of, and where this came from was a conspiracy theory by Sean Hannity that the Biden administration would retaliate against President Trump once he was out of office by going after his adult children. Unfortunately, in order to pardon them in advance, which the President could certainly do, he would need to be pardoning them of an accusation of a specific crime, and in the absence of that, there is no pardon that's available. What probably is going to happen though between now and the end of Donald Trump's term is that the President's going to use his very broad power to commute sentences and part of people to forgive high profile accused criminals, people in his political orbit, and people that are being pushed to him by lawyers like Alan Dershowitz, who's representing a known accused criminal, trying to get a pardon. The President could also commute or pardon people who are in jail for low-level drug offenses, which is something that he did over the summer and he used it to his political benefit. Watch for this to happen if the President truly wants to run again in 2024. He may think there's a new base of voters of convicted felons who are free who love Donald Trump now.
Has Jared Kushner Turned his Back on the Palestinians?
As the White House announces a historic deal between Israel and the UAE, Ian Bremmer talks to the chief architect of the Middle East strategy for President Trump—his senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner. In the conversation, Bremmer challenges Kushner's assertion that the US is trying to give the Palestinians a fair offer and asks if Arab nations have walked away from the Israel/Palestine conflict. As in January, Kushner continues to insist that Palestine has a "fair" and "great" offer for peace, saying: "this deal may be the last opportunity [the Palestinians will] ever have."
Watch the episode: Jared Kushner on Middle East peace & pandemic in the US
Would President Trump make a new deal with Iran? Kushner on the Middle East
In light of the historic announcement between Israel and the UAE, Ian Bremmer asks President Trump's senior advisor Jared Kushner what it means for US relations with Iran moving forward. Kushner describes Iran as "significantly weakened" under Trump's policies, and suggests the administration is waiting to "make the right deal" with the Gulf nation.
Watch the episode: Jared Kushner on Middle East peace & pandemic in the US
US-China relations per Jared Kushner: US vs China's aggression, to COVID "setback"
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to President Trump's senior advisor Jared Kushner about a range of foreign policy issues including U.S.-China relations. Kushner describes the relationship with China as being in "uncharted waters" since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and says of trade negotiations prior to the pandemic, "For the first time (China) didn't have a sucker in the White House."
Israel & UAE normalize relations: is Middle East peace to come?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer examines the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East as the UAE becomes only the third Arab nation to normalize relations with Israel. The deal comes at a moment when both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are both politically vulnerable following widespread criticism of mishandling of COVID-19 pandemic response. The man in the middle of both stories is a right hand to President Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Kushner defends Trump Administration on COVID, says US is “somewhere in the middle” of pandemic
Watch: In an August 2020 interview for GZERO World, and with 180,000 known coronavirus deaths in the US, Jared Kushner defends the Trump administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, though he admits there is still much work to be done before the nation reaches the end of this challenge.
Podcast: Jared Kushner on Middle East peace & pandemic in the US
Listen: President Trump's top advisor—and son-in-law—Jared Kushner joins the GZERO World Podcast for an in-depth conversation with Ian Bremmer.
On the heels of a historic deal normalizing relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Kushner discusses the latest development in a key mission of his tenure in the White House—moving closer to an elusive Middle East peace deal. Kushner also addresses the Trump administration's much criticized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and controversies surrounding President Trump's attack on voting by mail. He also previews future Iran and China policies should President Trump win a second term.
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