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Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
Defending Ukraine and Europe without the US
Three years into the war in Ukraine, what does the future of European security look like without the United States? That’s the question European leaders and NATO officials at this year's Munich Security Conference asked themselves after announcing a 90-minute phone call between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and a blistering speech from Vice President JD Vance criticizing European allies. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with US Senator Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and Pentagon official, in Munich about Europe’s security, the war in Ukraine, and America’s role in an increasingly multipolar world.
Senator Slotkin warns that maintaining Ukraine’s defenses is critical, not just for beating back Russian aggression but also for sending a message to countries like China that the US will stand up when democracies are invaded. But while Slotkin believes it's important to defend US allies, she also agrees with the Trump administration’s view that Europe needs to do a lot more in maintaining its own security.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from the Munich Security Conference. Just finished with the opening speech for Vice President JD Vance. Before that, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Literally standing room only across the conference. I can't remember the last time it was so busy. And so busy because so many people believe that the NATO and the transatlantic alliance are at a crossroads, are facing a time of crisis.
First, the good news. The recognition on the part of the Europeans that action on their part is urgent is pretty consistent across the board. That a 2% spend on defense is not enough, that they have to take much more of a leadership role on Ukraine. That they have to be much more competitive in terms of growth. That indeed many of the criticisms that are being levied on the Europeans by Trump, as well as by Democrats and Republicans in the United States are things they have not taken adequately seriously, and now they do.
I think the level of urgency, the recognition of crisis is true across the board. The willingness to take action is a different story. We will see that over the course of the coming months, but there's no question it is significant.
Go beyond that to what JD Vance had to say. This speech did not include a mention of Russia and Ukraine. This is a speech to the Munich Security Conference to mention separately of elections in Romania overturned by their constitutional court, politicized questions about that to be sure. But not a speech that resonated or landed well for the Europeans in the audience. They were getting a lecture on freedom of speech and democracy from the United States. They were not getting a sense of how strong and secure the alliance needed to be.
JD Vance was talking about democracy for as opposed to protecting from. The Security Conference is of course much more about protecting from. It's about what kind of external threats exist to NATO, which is the reason it exists. And to the extent that Europeans are concerned about the future of NATO, a lot of it is coming from inside the house, a European sense that the Americans are not committed to them anymore. In fact, Defense Minister of Germany, Pistorius actually yelled out during JD Vance's speech, "This is unacceptable." I've never seen anything like that from a European leader during a major US plenary here at the Munich Security Conference before coming here for about 15 years. So that was quite surprising.
Having said all of that, when the vice president met with the German federal president earlier in the day, he was much more willing to talk constructively about working together on Ukraine, especially in terms of having the Ukrainians at the table, including the Europeans. How essential it'd be for everybody to work together to ensure that the Ukrainians can be reconstructed. That they'll have security guarantees and defense.
So to a degree, what we are seeing is a speech for Vance's domestic audience in the United States, as well as some of the anti-EU Euro-skeptic populace in Europe, including the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland, who, of course, their support is going to the polls in a couple of weeks just like the rest of this country, Germany. But still, the level of tension here is extremely high. The level of trust has been reduced. And pretty much everyone I've talked to in this conference believes that the Russians today are in a considerably stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. The Chinese are in a stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. And that's something pretty much nobody in this conference wants to say, wants to hear. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US Vice President JD Vance delivers a speech during the plenary session of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, on Feb. 11, 2025.
JD Vance preaches innovation above all
Speaking at the AI Action Summit in Paris, France, US Vice President JD Vance on Tuesday laid out a vision of technological innovation above all — especially above regulation or international accords.
“I’m not here this morning to talk about AI safety, which was the title of the conference a couple of years ago. I’m here to talk about AI opportunity,” Vance said. “We believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry.” The vice president told a group of heads of state that the regulations that the European Union has placed on tech, including the Digital Services Act and AI Act, have been onerous.
Additionally, the US and UK did not sign onto a new international agreement put forward at the summit — which China, India, and France agreed to. The accord lays out norms for AI safety and sustainable energy use.
Europe already achieved first-mover status in regulating artificial intelligence software, largely a Silicon Valley export. But the Trump administration has signaled that the gap between America’s hands-off approach to AI and Europe’s hands-on attempt to rein it in will only widen in the coming years.
Why the world is facing a population crisis
How worried should we be about population collapse? Two-thirds of the people on Earth live in countries with fertility rates below replacement levels of 2.1 children per woman. Experts warn the global population will start falling within 60 years, dramatically impacting the future of work and social security. In the US, Vice President-Elect JD Vance has repeatedly expressed alarm over falling birth rates. Elon Musk has called population decline “a much bigger risk” to civilization than global warming. Places like Japan and Italy are already grappling with shrinking workforces, skyrocketing retirement costs, and healthcare systems stretched to their limits. So, we are heading toward demographic catastrophe, and can governments do anything about it? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Jennifer Sciubba, president and CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss population decline, the global fertility crisis, and why now is the time to reorient our economic and social welfare systems for an aging future.
“The governments that do not adjust their systems to deal with what you actually have, which is an aging smaller population in the future,” Sciubba warns, “They will have a problem."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The global population is aging. Is the world prepared?
Listen: The world is on the brink of one of the most fundamental demographic shifts in modern human history: populations are getting older, and birth rates are plummeting. By 2050, one in six people on Earth will be over 65, which will have a huge impact on the future of work, healthcare, and social security. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Jennifer Sciubba, President & CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss declining fertility, the aging crisis, and why government efforts all over the world to get people to have more babies don’t seem to be working. Is a slow-moving crisis inevitable? What does all this mean for the future of immigration, women's rights, and global power? Most importantly, is it even possible to turn back the demographic clock, or is it time to start adapting to support the populations we already have?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
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Audience members watch as Republican President Candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Candidate Kamala Harris debate on CNN on September 10, 2024 in Bloomington, Indiana.
Buckle up for presidential election madness
The US presidential election is just over three weeks away – and it’s a close race, which means the parties are throwing everything they have into the final weeks of the campaign. For Kamala Harris and the Democrats, that’s a lot. Harris and the Dems have raised over $1 billion dollars since she rose to the top of the ticket, an amount and pace observers say is likely record-breaking.
The cash won’t win the election on its own, but it will help the Harris campaign with its media blitz, including a series of interviews this week on “60 Minutes,” “The Howard Stern Show,” and the popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast as Democrats worry about campaign shortfalls and Donald Trump’s chances of retaking the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaignis busy cleaning up – or trying to clean up – a series of messes, including a new book by journalist Bob Woodward that claims Trump has kept in touch with Vladimir Putinsince leaving office and that he sent the Russian president COVID-19 testing equipment at the height of the pandemic. Trump and the campaign deny the claims.
Trump is also claiming, without evidence, that he has visited Gaza, and he’s using hurricanes Helene and Milton to make false claims about the Biden administration’s disaster response and Harris’ record.
Nonetheless, the Trump campaign is doing double-time in key states ahead of the November vote, outpacing by on his own Harris and Walz’s combined effort. When you add vice president contender JD Vance’s events, the Republicans come out way ahead. The Trump campaign is also deploying a new get-out-the-vote model that it’s betting big on, particularly in tight states that will likely determine the election. Trump is also working to mobilize its male voters, and has recently gained some support from Black men who are turning away from Harris.
According to the 538 election model, Harris is currently projected to win 53 out of 100 times in its simulations compared to Trump’s 47 victories – and in a tiny fraction of the simulations, there is no electoral college winner, the ultimate chaos scenario – and one to watch closely.Debate Bingo, VP edition: Tim Walz v. JD Vance
Tim Walz and JD Vance are set to face off in their first vice presidential debate of the 2024 US election campaign on Tuesday, October 1. You know what that means: it’s time for another round of DEBATE BINGO!
Tuesday's 90-minute debate will be broadcast live on CBS at 9 PM ET and will be moderated by CBS News anchors Norah O'Donnell and Margaret Garrett. It will take place at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York. As the running mates of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Walz and Vance could inject fresh momentum into their respective campaigns, which have been in a lull following the Harris-Trump face-off on September 10. We'll soon see whose debate performance proves more effective in swaying voters.
Some tips on DEBATE BINGO: you can make it a competition with your fellow politics nerd pals by printing out GZERO Media's debate bingo cards. Or just screenshot them and share with your friends to compare online. There are four different cards so that each player can have a unique board. Every time one of the candidates says one of these words or terms, X it on your card. The first player to get five across wins. And if you really want to jazz it up, you can mark each of your words by taking a swig of your favorite beverage, doing five burpees, or donating to your favorite charity or political candidate.
Enjoy! Follow our coverage of the debate with us on social media too - we'll be on X @gzeromedia.
Walz Vance Debate Bingo Card 1
Walz Vance Debate Bingo Card 2
Walz Vance Debate Bingo Card 3
Walz Vance Debate Bingo Card 4
Remember, there's more going on in the world than just the US election, so subscribe to GZERO Daily, our newsletter on global politics, and watch our weekly show GZERO World with Ian Bremmer right here and on public television.
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