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51st or Fight: Trudeau leaves, Trump Arrives
Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you.
The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive.
Canada and the US are headed for a serious and economically dangerous trade war in less than two weeks, and President-elect Donald Trump, seeing Canada in a vulnerable leadership moment, smells blood.
In politics, as in most things, there is no opponent more powerful than time and, after nine years in power, time crushed Justin Trudeau’s political career. The “Sunny Ways” majority government of 2015 for Trudeau gave way to the medieval darkness of his current minority government, beset by dire polls, recurring scandals, and painful internal betrayals. What happened?
In short, there were no new policy ideas to bring back the light. The list of victories that Trudeau mentioned in his resignation speech (some genuinely transformative, others still deeply divisive) — the Canada Child Benefit that lifted over 300,000 children out of poverty (child poverty rates in Canada are now going back up), the first G7 country to put a price on carbon, renegotiating NAFTA, leading the country through the pandemic, legalizing cannabis and medically assisted dying, negotiating a health accord with the provinces, bringing in universal daycare — all these were, in the end, not nearly enough. Politics is all about tomorrow, not yesterday, and the tomorrow promise of Trudeau, once his brand, was gone.
Since the pandemic, Trudeau has been, like incumbents around the world, on his back foot on the trinity of core issues galvanizing populist support: inflation, immigration, and housing prices. His policies to address these were reactive, well behind the instincts of the leader of the official opposition, Pierre Poilievre. It didn’t help that the fiscal guardrails Trudeau had set up were blown. The Liberals were more than CA$20 billion past their target ahead of the fall fiscal update, an update his finance minister was set to give on Dec. 16. Instead, she dropped a radioactive resignation letter that very morning, pointing to Trudeau’s fiscal strategies as “costly political gimmicks” — and laying bare the internal divisions within the Cabinet. He was out of supporters, out of ideas, and looked out of touch.
It finally ended on Monday, an icy Ottawa day with the kind of cold that you can almost grab with a gloved hand and snap over your knee. The prime minister stood alone in front of the cottage where he had done so many press conferences during the pandemic and where I recall sitting to interview a gray-bearded version of him on a similarly frigid winter day back in 2020. Now, he was notably different. Stripped of the pretense and dramatics that sometimes characterized his tenure, he presented a more authentic version of the man most Canadians had long ago lost sight of, telling them that he was resigning as leader and prime minister.
For a boy born on Christmas Day, the pathetic fallacies that marked Justin Trudeau’s life had one last small signal to send. Just before he left the shelter of the cottage to make his resignation announcement, a gust of wind suddenly blew his speech off the podium, papers scattering into the January air. It was over.
For his party, Trudeau’s departure could not come soon enough, and while Liberal Party leaders are still dithering on the rules for a leadership race, the math is cruel. Parliament is prorogued — suspended — until March 24, on Trudeau’s orders. There will be a confidence vote soon after, so expect a Canadian federal election to kick off immediately and run into May. In other words, Trudeau gave the next leader a short runway — more like a cliff. The next PM will barely have time to find the bathrooms and grab a cup of coffee before they will have to hit the hustings and try to climb out of the political hole that finds them 25 points behind the Conservatives.
For Canada, this could not come at a worse time. In less than two weeks, Trump will be sworn in as US president, and he has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs and use “economic force” to try to absorb the country as the 51st state.
As I wrote last year, Trump’s threat to absorb Canada as the 51st state has gone from a joke to a trial balloon — and it is quickly becoming a policy goal.
Trump the Isolationist has looped inside out and become Trump the Expansionist, with designs on Greenland, Canada, and Panama. His foreign policy for Central America is basically now the famous palindrome: a man, a plan, a canal, Panama.
Is he serious?
Yes.
Always take the president of the United States seriously, especially when he says he’s being serious. He may be using aggressive rhetoric as a negotiating tool to get better deals, but the threats are very real. Trump believes in tariffs like a priest believes in God.
When Trump threatens to beggar Canada with the economic force of 25% tariffs, it is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
Canadian industry is bracing for a dramatic, painful economic shock. From. Its. Closest. Biggest. Trading. Partner.
All this lines up perfectly with the Top Risks of 2025 that our parent company, Eurasia Group, released this week, as you have read about. Risks such as Trumponomics — high tariffs on all allies and foes — mixed with the risk of The Rule of Don, a mercurial leader who has destroyed norms and wants the rule of the jungle over the rule law, is a lethal combination for a middle power country like Canada.
The rules-based international order is the architecture of the multilateral world, one that the US built in its own image after World War II and, until now, has been the backstop. This order has led to incredible prosperity for both the US and Canada, and billions of others. It is now disappearing faster than the fact-checkers at Meta.
As Trump throws economic bombs, Canada will have to muddle through the next three to five months without a leader who has a national mandate, leaving premiers like Ontario’s Doug Ford to lead the fight. And credit to him: Ford, so far, has done a superb job defending his province and speaking out.
Trump is coming for Canada and wants it to be the 51st state, in part or in whole — and if there was ever a time for someone to prove they have the stuff for leadership in a time of crisis, it is now. To twist an old expression, it is the 51st or fight.
Canadians better be up for a fight.
Trump wants something, but likely not a 51st state
It has been a long time since the United States got any bigger.
In the 19th century, the American governing class believed in Manifest Destiny — that the country should govern the whole continent, spreading democracy and capitalism — and the young republic acquired Alaska and much of Mexico. Recently, though, Americans have seemed happy with their territorial limits.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump signaled that this may be about to change. In a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, the soon-to-be president expressed the desire to acquire Greenland, reacquire the Panama Canal — by force, if necessary — and use “economic force” to acquire Canada.
Observers do not think he can seriously intend to absorb his northern neighbor, but it’s hard to be entirely confident.
Trump has been teasingly calling Justin Trudeau “governor” for weeks and cracking jokes about making Canada the 51st US state, but his tone on Tuesday was different. He sounded serious.
Trump referred to the Canada-US border as an “artificially drawn line” and complained about the cost of the relationship with the United States.
“We don’t need their cars,” he said. “You know, they make 20% of our cars. We don’t need that. I’d rather make them in Detroit. We don’t need their cars. We don’t need their lumber. We have massive fields of lumber. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their dairy products. We have more than they have.”
Trump said he would impose “very serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada,” and complained about drugs and migrants crossing both borders.
Since Trump first threatened to hit both countries with tariffs in November, Canadians have shown signs of distress. Premiers, fearing the impact on exports to the United States, have urged Ottawa to cooperate on the border, and Trudeau flew down to Mar-a-Lago to kick-start talks. Canada rushed to present a border plan. But even as they sought to placate Trump, the president-elect increased the intensity of his rhetoric.
Snowball’s chance …
After Tuesday’s news conference, Canadian leaders responded by telling Trump that Canada is not interested in joining the United States — an idea that is just not that popular.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Trudeau tweeted.
“Canada will never be the 51st state,” tweeted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. “Period.”
“Cut the crap, Donald,” tweeted the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh. “No Canadian wants to join you.
Canadian commentators also expressed that they were shocked and appalled by Trump’s suggestion.
South of the border, though, Trump’s supporters were cheering him on. Matt Walsh, Jack Posobiec, and Jesse Waters all want to conquer Canada.
It is hard to know how seriously to take any of this.
How serious is he?
Trump’s complaints about Canada seem manufactured. Little fentanyl comes across the northern border. The $100 billion trade deficit that Trump gripes about is largely the result of oil and gas exports, which help keep US gas prices low at the pumps. If the Americans don’t want it, Canada could find other markets. Imposing tariffs would wreck the Canadian economy, but it would also damage American interests, especially if Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on, for example, Florida orange juice.
But some well-connected people are rattled by Trump’s talk. Could he plan to wreak havoc with the Canadian economy? Will he try to divide and conquer by offering oil-rich Alberta the chance to join its biggest market, creating a Donbas on the 49th parallel? Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee joked that the United States might like to take Alberta and leave the rest.
But it doesn’t seem like the MAGA movement would want Canada. Its left-leaning voters would make it hard for any future Republican to win the presidency. English Canadians have been struggling to accommodate prickly French Canadians since the country was founded.
What does MAGA want? So this doesn’t look like a practical proposal, and in the same news conference, Trump sounded unhinged, opining that windmills are driving whales crazy, for example.
The best-informed observers doubt that he is serious about annexing Canada.
“I think he is rattling cages so that he can expand the boundary of acceptable outcomes,” says Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who, as a senior adviser to Trudeau, negotiated with Trump. “Something like, sorry we screwed up your auto industry and dairy market, but at least you still have a country.”
“Trump’s threats against Canada seem less than serious as of now, though his comments about Panama and Greenland should not be dismissed,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director. “Those are a clear effort to expand the range of potential actions and have in-built strategic benefits which Trump or those in his orbit view seriously.”
“He’s negotiating like a real estate developer negotiates,” says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security. “He sees a bunch of land and thinks it would be really cool to have his name on it, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
“Trump is softening his targets up for negotiations to come,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. “He’s obviously serious about getting concessions on trade issues and the border, and he’s very happy to continue poking where he finds weakness.”
He has found it in Ottawa. Trudeau, who announced his resignation on Monday, could not be weaker. For the next few months, most of his best people will be occupied by the race to succeed him, and then whomever they choose will likely lose an election to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Until then, Trudeau is an unpopular lame duck. The last time Trump was president, Trudeau managed to drive a hard bargain as the two countries negotiated the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
This time, Trump should have an easier time getting whatever it is he wants, and Canadians had better hope that does not include their sovereignty.
Meta scraps fact-checking program: What next?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you make of Meta ending its fact-checking program?
Well, it's a direct response to Trump's victory and a little late. They probably could have done it a few weeks ago, but they wanted to line up their new board members with people that are more aligned with Trump and also their new head of public policy. Now that Nick Clegg, who was much more oriented to Harris, is gone. So, they're like everybody else, heading to Mar-a-Lago and wanting to get on board with the new administration. That is what's happening. And of course, it means implications for those concerned about safety features on social media are going to grow. This is a complete shift of the pendulum in the other direction.
What is the fallout from Justin Trudeau's resignation?
It's not surprising. He's been there for 10 years. His popularity had really fallen off a cliff. And that was even before Chrystia Freeland, his deputy prime minister, shot him in the face a few weeks ago. So, it was clear that he was going to go. The most important implication is that after elections coming up, you're likely to have a conservative government run by Pierre Poilievre, which will be much more aligned with Trump. I don't consider Poilievre's policies to be very America First-ish for Canada. He's not quite that kind of a politician. But he will be, I think, very supported by Trump, Elon Musk and right-wing populists in the United States.
So, in that regard, as you think about re-upping the US-Mexico-Canada relationship, agreement-trade relationship, you talk about tariffs and all the rest, I suspect that relationship will be more normalized and more stable for the Canadians going forward.
As Trump is about to kick off his second term, who are his friends around the world?
A lot more than he had last time around. I mean, you could focus on Argentina and President Milei. In the recent G20 Summit, Trump wasn't there yet, but Milei was. And I mean his talking points were as if Trump was in the room. Of course, Giorgia Meloni, who just made her trip to Mar-a-Lago, she's very strongly pro-EU. But she's also very aligned personally with Trump. And that is going to be a strong relationship for them.
Germans are going to have their election shortly. Friedrich Merz is likely to win. And I suspect he's going to be much closer to Trump, certainly than outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been. The Gulf States, Israel, that was Trump's first trip as president back in 2017, will be his early trip. I am very sure in this presidency, very strong relations. Don't sleep on Narendra Modi in India either. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters, announcing he intends to step down as Liberal Party leader, from his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Jan. 6, 2025.
Trudeau steps down, and a leadership race kicks off
On Monday morning, Jan. 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addressed reporters on the stairs of Rideau Cottage, his official residence in Ottawa, to announce his resignation. He began by stating that “Parliament has been paralyzed for months. This morning, I advised the governor general that we need a new session of Parliament. The House is prorogued until March 24.”
This means that instead of returning on Jan. 27, as previously scheduled, the Canadian legislature will not sit for another two months. This prevents the opposition from presenting a non-confidence motion to topple the government, as it had threatened to do.
“I intend to resign as party leader and prime minister after the party selects its next leader in a robust, competitive nationwide process,” Trudeau explained. “Last night, I asked the president of the Liberal Party to begin that process.”
The move obliges Trudeau’s party to hold a rapid-fire leadership race to choose a new leader – the winner of which will face voters in an election that must be held no later than Oct. 20, 2025. This makes it difficult for the party to bring in outside candidates and instead favors current cabinet members, whom Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre wasted no time attacking.
What Poilievre really wants is an immediate election. His party is currently ahead by 25% in the polls, and he has every interest in going to voters before the Liberals have the chance to improve their fortunes.
Trudeau, meanwhile, blamed caucus infighting for his decision. “If I continue to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in the next election.” At the time of his resignation, 59% of Liberal Party supporters, as well as three of his four national caucuses, said he should resign. He also threw shade at former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, saying that he had hoped she would take on one of “the most important files in my government” but that “she chose otherwise.”
We’ll be watching to see which candidates arise as possible contenders to replace Trudeau in the weeks ahead. Possible names include Freeland, cabinet colleagues Dominic LeBlanc, Francois-Philippe Champagne, and Mélanie Joly, as well as former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and former BC Premier Christy Clark.Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reacts as he and his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau (the two are now separated) walk in the Vancouver Pride Parade in Vancouver, British Columbia, on July 31, 2016.
Trudeau’s Hard Numbers: Election victories, LGBTQ rights, Indigenous boil water advisories, Public service growth, Fiscal deficit, Poverty and Popularity
1: Trudeau became the first Canadian prime minister to march in a Pride parade. He marched in the Toronto Pride parade in 2016 and has since then attended parades in many cities, including Montreal, Halifax, and Vancouver.
147: In November 2015, there were 77 long-term drinking water advisories affecting 53 First Nations communities. As of November 7, 2024, the Government of Canada reports that 147 advisories have been lifted, with 31 still in effect in 29 communities.
43: Under Trudeau’s leadership, the federal public service expanded by approximately 43%, adding over 110,000 employees since 2015. In the same period, Canada’s population expanded by 17%.
61.9: Trudeau campaigned in 2015 on a promise of “modest short-term deficits.” Canada’s federal budget deficit reached CA$61.9 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2024, exceeding the government’s own target by 50%.
1.4 million: According to a report by UNICEF, between 2015 and 2020, the share of Canadians living below the poverty line fell from 14.5% to 6.4%. Canada also had one of the largest proportional drops in child poverty between 2012 and 2021, thanks to programs like the Canada Child Benefit and CERB. However, poverty has rebounded since then, to 9.9% in 2022, with 1.4 million children classified as poor.
22: Trudeau’s approval ratings have declined significantly, with most recent polls indicating that only 22% of Canadians approve of his performance. Fifty-nine percent of his party supporters said he should resign so the party can choose a new leader.Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters, announcing that he intends to step down as Liberal Party leader and prime minister from his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa, Canada, on Jan. 6, 2025.
Justin Trudeau: The rise and fall of a political golden boy
Justin Pierre James Trudeau’s political life began in the cradle. Born Christmas Day, 1971, to Margaret Sinclair and Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Canada’s 15th prime minister, their eldest son grew up in the spotlight and an atmosphere of privilege. Now, he’s out in the cold, abandoned by his closest allies and maligned by his opponents as Canada, too, joins the global anti-incumbent mood.
Rise to power
As a young man, Trudeau taught drama and snowboarding, but in 2000, his emotional eulogy at his father’s funeral put him on the radar as a future leader. Trudeau delivered public speeches, engaged in advocacy, andmet and married media personality Sophie Gregoire in 2005; the pair were promptly dubbed “the Kennedys of Canada.”
In 2007, Trudeau sought and wonthe party’s nomination in Papineau, a blue-collar Montreal riding that was not a safe Liberal seat, but that he took by just over 1,000 votes in the 2008 election. Trudeau chose Papineau to silence critics who dismissed him as a political lightweight, trading on his family name. He subsequently made headlines again as a young MP in 2012 when he wona charity boxing match against Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau. The triumph was unexpected, but it and the Papineau victory highlighted one of Trudeau’s key political qualities: his ability to win when the odds are stacked against him.
The events also positioned Trudeau as a leading contender for the Liberal leadership, which he won in 2013, handily defeating more seasoned political rivals. Trudeau’s message of “hope and hard work” and telegenic appeal galvanized the demoralized base of the third-place Liberals, promising renewal.
Trudeau carried his “Sunny Ways” mantra forward to the 2015 federal election. His focus on youth, diversity, and progressive policies offered a sharp contrast to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, suffering from voter fatigue after nine years in power. The Liberalssurged from third place to win a majority government, with Trudeau becoming Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister.
Progressive achievements
Trudeau’s tenure began with sweeping promises: climate action, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, electoral reform, and restoring Canada’s global standing. His gender-parity Cabinet,“because it’s 2015” made him the standard bearer for progressivism at home and abroad. The Liberals introduced the Canada Child Benefit, cut middle-class taxes, and legalized recreational cannabis. On the international stage, Trudeau championed multilateralism, free trade, and feminism, curating a swoon-worthy, media-friendly brand as the heir apparent to liberals such asoutgoing US President Barack Obama.
Trudeau won two subsequent elections in 2019 and 2021, though with diminished mandates. His signature initiatives included a national carbon tax, the renegotiation of NAFTA (USMCA) in 2018, the advancement of LGBTQ+ rights, legalized assisted dying, and stronger gun control. To maintain the support of the New Democratic Party for his current minority government, he also enacted a national $10-a-day daycare and free dental care for children, the elderly, and the disabled, and paved the way for a national pharmacare program.
Creeping failures
However, Trudeau’s tenure is also marred by broken promises and ethical lapses. His failure to implement electoral reform and maintain “modest” deficitsalienated both left- and right-wing segments of his base. TheSNC-Lavalin political interference scandal in 2019, coupled with Trudeau’s lavish vacations and the emergence of a series of blackface photos from his youth, further damaged his credibility on ethical and racial issues.
Indigenous leaders accused him ofnot making meaningful progress on reconciliation, while frustration over inflation, housing costs, and an overstretched healthcare system have fueled public anger. Trudeau also greenlighted immigration policies that saw millions of newcomers enter the country between 2022 and 2024, further straining the country’s already scarce housing supply.
On the international front, Canada’s relationship with China deteriorated following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Canada’s relationship with India also suffered following accusations by Trudeau that the government of Narendra Modi masterminded the assassination of a Khalistani terrorist on Canadian soil. A recent public inquiry also revealed foreign interference in the Canadian electoral system, with accusations that Trudeau did not act on crucial information about his own MPs.
The black swans
Ultimately, Trudeau was undone by two black swans. The first was Donald Trump. The US president’s year-long tariff war with Canada in 2016 forced Trudeau to sideline domestic priorities to tackle the renegotiation of NAFTA. Trump’s Muslim ban also inspired Trudeau’s viral tweet welcoming refugees to Canada, which was followed by a surge in immigration and refugee claims – now a hot-button issue as anti-immigrant sentiment rises and the government backtracks on its welcoming policies.
The second swan was the COVID-19 pandemic. Trudeau drew initial praise for rapid financial relief programs, but also criticism for vaccine procurement delays and vaccine mandates. In 2022, Ottawa was occupied by a “Freedom Convoy,” which paralyzed the nation’s capital and saw Trudeau invoke the Emergencies Act, Canada’s equivalent of martial law. That event galvanized the Conservative opposition and contributed to the election of a new Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau’s fiercest critic, who nowappears poised to replace Trudeau.
The end
By 2025, Justin Trudeau’s political career had come full circle. He rescued his party from its third-place finish in 2013, only to return it to a possible third – or even fourth-place finish – were an election to be held today. He once again found himself the object of derision by Trump, and also an object of rancor at home.
Then, after the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 10, the dominoes began to fall inside the Liberal Party. With the looming threat of a non-confidence vote when Parliament resumes in January, three of the four Liberal regional caucuses demanded that Trudeau quit, and with a general caucus meeting set for this Wednesday, Trudeau finally decided the odds were insurmountable. On Jan. 6, 2025, he announced his plan to stand down as Liberal Party leader.
What’s next?
Trudeau leaves his party, and his country, with a very murky future. He has no obvious natural successor, and the timeline and process for a leadership campaign are not yet known. The Liberals’ organization is severely weakened – with the party practically non-existent west of Ontario – and their policy agenda is exhausted. According to Eurasia analyst Graeme Thompson, “Whoever ascends to the leadership may well face snap elections, and there is a real risk that the party could fall to third or even fourth place. It also faces the stark choice between pivoting back towards the political center or cementing its alliance with the leftist NDP.”
All this comes at a moment of considerable uncertainty for Canada, with the economy sputtering, tensions over immigration and the cost of living rising, Quebec separatism beginning to re-emerge, and Ottawa facing a new Trump administration that will drive a very hard bargain in trade talks, over border security, and on the broader foreign and defense policy front. If the Conservatives win the next election as expected, they will inherit serious challenges on several policy fronts, beginning with US-Canada relations and delivering on campaign promises to cut taxes, boost growth, and rein in the cost of living.
Trudeau’s full legacy will be judged in time. But for a leader who promised "Sunny Ways," his political twilight is anything but.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at the federal Liberal caucus holiday party, the day after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unexpectedly resigned, in Ottawa, Ontario, on Dec. 17, 2024.
Chances of Trudeau staying as PM drop quickly
After Finance Minister Chrystia Freelandresigned in mid-December, Trudeau was said to be considering quitting. Since then, his Atlantic and Quebec caucuses – groups of members of Parliament from regions or provinces – have said he should go, which means the majority of Liberal members of Parliament are calling on him to quit. Trudeau’s former principal secretary – and Eurasia Group vice chairman – Gerald Buttsthinks Trudeau is less likely to stay on after the Freeland departure as his grip on power loosens.
“Mr. Trudeau was unlikely to lead the Liberal Party into the next election and is now much less likely to do so,” he writes. “That election will probably come sooner rather than later, and the odds of it producing a Conservative majority government are materially greater than they were before the events of 16 December.”
Before Christmas, Trudeau canceled all of his year-end press interviews save for one with comedian Mark Critch. A few days later, Trudeau was mocked and harassed while on vacation skiing in British Columbia.
The Liberals are down roughly 20 points in the polls, and the Conservatives are preparing a vote of non-confidence against the government through a committee backdoor trick by way of the standing committee on public accounts, which they control. The New Democratic Party has said it will vote non-confidence but hasn’t specified whether it’ll vote with the Conservatives if they proceed with their current plan, or wait to come up with their own. Whatever happens next, the days of Trudeau’s government appear to be numbered.President-elect Donald Trump attends the 2024 Senior Club Championship award ceremony at his Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, back in March.
Don’t Panic: 4 Rules for Responding to Trump Threats
Amid all the geopolitical chaos, the best advice of the year: Don’t panic.
As they dined at Mar-a-Lago on a main course of tough, over-cooked tariff talk, President-elect Donald Trump suggested to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — in what the Canadians present later called a joking manner — that Canada might make a good 51st state. Naturally, people freaked out. First, Trump threatens to destroy the Canadian economy with 25% tariffs on everything, and now this? An invasion?
As the breathless coverage spilled over the international media, my colleague Gerry Butts went on Bluesky with a message: “Trump used this 51st state line all the time with Trudeau in his first term. He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages. When someone wants you to freak out, don’t.”
It is sound advice. Don’t freak out.
Canada is no more going to become the 51st state in the next four years than California, British Columbia, and Oregon are going to break away and become Cascadia. Jokes are not policy.
So what’s up?
Trump is a zero-sum negotiator. He uses the powerful leverage he has to create “I win, you lose” deals. Threats give him a real negotiation advantage before the actual negotiations happen. That is the prerogative of the Big Dog countries, especially those run by strongmen, mercantilist leaders like Trump. Trump threats are simply the expected prelude to any deal. But what is real and what is rhetoric? And how to respond?
Invasion: Rhetoric. Dismiss.
Tariffs: Real. Discuss.
Rule One: Stick With Facts. Don’t get caught up in the torrent of tweets and taunts. Don’t give anything away until the actual negotiations start. Facts are your best friends.
Facts? Really? You might think that since Trump has ushered in the post-fact world, facts are a diminishing currency. That is a dangerous bet. For example, at the root of the 51st state jab are the much more dangerous Trump threats to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming in from Canada and Mexico. Trump based this threat on what he says is the heavy flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants across the border.
Initially, that threat caused panic. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith immediately went into appeasement mode, telling the CBC’s Power and Politics, “It’s incumbent, I believe, on the federal government, along with all of the provinces, to work together to address those concerns if we want to be able to avoid these devastating tariffs that’ll hurt all of us.”
She’s not wrong that the Trump rhetoric needs to be addressed, which is why Trudeau immediately got on a plane and took his team for a strategic schmooze fest at Mar-a-Lago. Trump prizes personal relationships above all else, so a connection matters.
Rule Two: Don’t Take It Personally. Even though Trump has a long-standing sour relationship with Trudeau — he’s even called the Canadian PM “two-faced” — in Trumplandia, that doesn’t matter. His relationships with people change like the weather in the Rocky Mountains: If you don’t like what is happening, wait five minutes. It will change.
Trump is quick to anger and quick to forget. Can he get over his past irritations with Trudeau? Well, he got over JD Vance comparing him to … that guy who ran Germany in the war. He nominated former rival Marco Rubio, whom he used to mock as “Little Marco,” for secretary of state. Trump doesn’t hold the very grudges he creates, and the best way to get over that is to find a way to make nice, show loyalty, and suck up. That’s what the Trudeau visit was all about. Feelings first. Facts second.
That doesn’t mean giving anything away. And that’s where the facts come in. On fentanyl and border security, the reality is far different than the rhetoric. Canada is hardly a major threat to the US on either issue.
“The facts are hard to deny,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s whip-smart ambassador to the US, pointed out on X. “Last year, 0.6% of illegal crossings and 0.2% of fentanyl seizures by US authorities were at the northern border.”
That’s right. Only .2% of fentanyl seizures happened at the Canadian border. If you want to go deeper, check out the latest stats from the US Customs and Border Protection agency, which shows that the problem of fentanyl is largely at the Mexican border, not the Canadian one.
In fact, the CBP’s top official, Troy Miller, has an extensive interview on the US government website about fentanyl coming over the US border. Guess what? He mentions the southwest border 21 times and Mexico specifically seven times. Canada? Not a word. Canada and the northern border are not mentioned a single time. Why? It is simply not a major issue.
Rule Three: Know What Actually Needs Work. On the other hand, illegal migration is a real issue, both internationally and domestically. There is a key section along the US-Canadian border called the Swanton Sector (which covers parts of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire), and illegal immigration rates there have spiked according to stats from the CBP. But how bad is it? 23,000 arrests were made at the northern border between October 2023 and September 2024. That is up from 10,000 in 2023. Compared to Mexico, where over 47,000 arrests were made in November of this year alone, it’s a trickle (700 were arrested in November in Canada). Still, politically it is an issue Canadians will have to deal with if they want to avoid tariff punishments. Doing nothing is not an option.
Illegal migration is now driving election outcomes in France, Ireland, Germany, and many other places, so this ain’t a surprise. But proportionality matters, and the facts that prove that point can get lost in the storm of threats. It is critical this doesn’t happen.
Rule 4: Follow the Money. There is a high probability that a tariff-driven trade war — or skirmish — is coming very soon, and the facts here will be crucial. After all, high tariffs will hurt the very people Trump represents — namely, American workers. High US tariffs on Canadian goods will raise prices for US consumers and make life for them more miserable. That is a political loss for Trump.
Over 34 US states rely on Canada as their major trading partner, so expect state governors to pressure the White House to ease up on the tariff talk so as not to jeopardize the bilateral trading relationship that sees over US$2.7 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border each day.
To protect that, Canadian leaders will have to think hard about decoupling their trade relationship with Mexico, especially when the new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal gets renegotiated in 2026. The politics of the southern border have always cross-infected the northern one, but if the infection threatens to be economically fatal, there will be a change. The famed three amigos might be reduced to two.
But that is not for right now. Trade deals are not made on social media; they are negotiated face to face, when genuine swaps and deals can happen. Better to build relationships now over dinner, and serve up facts for dessert.
And don’t panic.
It hasn’t even started yet.