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Election Countdown: 4 things you need to know in the last week of US presidential race
The final week of the 2024 presidential campaign is upon us, with early voting in full swing, absentee ballots in the mail, and the polls too close to call. With seven days left before Election Day, here are the four things you need to know.
1. It’s going to come down to the seven swing states. The candidates need 270 electoral college votes to win, and some combination of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada are likely to be the states that deliver the Electoral College to the next president.
Many states lean toward one party or are at least gerrymandered to make it likely their votes go that way. If both candidates win the states where they are heavily favored, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Pennsylvania is getting the most attention because, according to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Because of this, the two candidates are concentrating their efforts on the swing states in the last week. Kamala Harris visited Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday, and her running mate Tim Walz held down the fort in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump held a rally in Atlanta, Georgia.
2. It’s incredibly close. The New York Times reports that polls are getting even tighter in the final days of the campaign, with Harris ahead by just one point nationally. In the swing state polls, neither candidate has a lead that exceeds the margin of error.
3. Both candidates are making their closing arguments. Harris will deliver a speech at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, on Tuesday evening that is expected to draw nearly 20,000 people, rivaling the size of Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
In New York, in the last major event of the campaign trail, Trump and his allies’ speeches were full of anger at the political system and used rhetoric that railed against the state of the economy and immigrants – often in openly racist terms.
At the rally in DC, Harris will stand at the same place where on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump delivered remarks to his supporters who went on to storm the US Capitol. The location choice is no accident, as Harris is expected to make her last major speech about Trump posing a threat to democracy. Whether that will motivate voters to the polls is up for debate, as recent Gallup polling shows that the economy is the biggest issue for voters, followed by democracy, national security, and potential Supreme Court picks.
4. Expect results a lot sooner than in 2020, when the last election took nearly five days to decide because more than 43% of all ballots were mailed in due to the COVID pandemic.
Since then, many states have updated their policies to allow them to start counting absentee ballots before Election Night – including swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina – and fewer absentee ballots are expected overall. The fact that the election is likely to hinge on just a few states means that a result could be clear by the middle of the night or by early morning the next day.
The only hold-ups could come from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially if the election is very close because neither state allows for envelope processing to begin before Election Day.
Texas showdown: Trump and Harris target the different sides of gender divide
With the latest polls still showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the swing states, both candidates are heading to Texas, a far less competitive state, with hopes of reaching key voter groups nationwide.
Harris is heading to Houstonto hold a rally alongsideBeyoncé and Willie Nelson. The event will use Texas’ abortion ban to rally voters – especially women – against restrictions on reproductive rights enacted in many Republican states since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
The vice president will also be joined by Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who is making a bid to unseat Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and she is scheduled to tape a podcast interview with Texan author Brené Brown.
Meanwhile, Trump will join Joe Rogan in Austin. He will be interviewed for his podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience,” which is predominantly listened to by young men.
The former president will also speak to reporters about border security – one of his strongest issues.
While the two are heading to the same state, the demographics they are targeting – women vs. young men – highlight the gaping gender divide defining this election (read more on that here).
Election Countdown: Harris, Trump, and Musk focus in on the swing states
It's two weeks until Election Day, and both candidates are scrambling to pull ahead in the seven swing states that could decide the election.
Kamala Harris hit three battleground states on Monday – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – accompanied by former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. The two aimed to win over Trump-skeptic Republicans and independent voters in the suburbs to secure a “blue wall” against the GOP-dominated rural stretches of the states.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump campaigned in western North Carolina, criticizing FEMA’s response to Hurricane Helene in a region where many people are still without water, internet, and power. These counties are also 61% Republican, and Trump is trying to galvanize residents by attacking the government’s response to the storm, baselessly accusing FEMA of spending funds on undocumented immigrants, “They don’t have any money ... It’s all gone. They’ve spent it on illegal migrants, many of them are murderers.”
Monday was also the deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania, the election’s most critical swing state and the site of Elon Musk’s controversial sweepstakes giving $1 million to one registered voter who signs his petition every day until the election. The scheme is raising alarm bells among election law experts because it could be considered financially incentivizing registering to vote or voting, which is illegal. But on its face, it is only a reward for signing a petition that affirms the rights to free speech and to bear arms.
Its potential impact is up for debate. Of the 9.95 million people of voting age in Pennsylvania, 90.8% of them are already registered, a slight uptick from the 2020 presidential election. However, it undoubtedly raises awareness and anticipation of the upcoming vote, which could lead to more of Musk’s fans — who disproportionately lean to the right — casting their ballots.
Wondering which swing states each candidate needs to win to secure the White House? Read this for everything you need to know.Harris ventures into conservative territory
Now, the Harris campaign seems to believe the vice president should speak directly to the Fox audience rather than allow Donald Trump and the network’s best-known conservative opinion-makers to define her.
The Harris campaign is also in talks about a possible appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience,” the country’s most popular podcast. The show has an estimated 14.5 million followers, and Rogan himself has more than 19 million followers on Instagram and 17 million on YouTube.
According to arecent poll, more than 80% of Rogan’s audience is male, and 56% are under 35 years old, making this a demographic group Harris wants to target. Anew poll from Pew Research found that Trump leads Harris among men by a margin of 51% to 43%.
Trump, meanwhile, appears to be courting the dance party demographic after a bizarre town hall event at which he stopped taking questions to play (and sway to) his campaign playlist for nearly 40 minutes. Hits included “YMCA” by The Village People, Rufus Wainwright’s cover of Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” and “Nothing Compares 2 U” by Sinéad O’Connor.
When to worry about AI and the election
There are 21 days until Election Day in the United States — and voters in numerous states have already begun early voting. So far, artificial intelligence applications have had minimal effects on the election, though it’s reared its head a few times.
During this US election cycle, generative AI has been used in an RNC ad, a fraudulent Joe Biden robocall for New Hampshire voters, and deepfake photos of Taylor Swift endorsing Donald Trump.
Microsoft and OpenAI say they’ve disrupted foreign influence campaigns from China, Iran, and Russia seeking to sow discord in the US, including around hot-button political issues such as Israel’s war with Gaza.
While malicious actors haven’t yet used AI tools in very novel ways, the technology has made it easier, quicker, and cheaper to generate online propaganda and disseminate it over social media. In Indonesia, for example, notorious Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto used a chubby-cheeked, friendly AI-generated avatar to appeal to voters in the presidential election. In Pakistan, Imran Khan used AI voice cloning to spread his political message and support his party’s candidates from prison.
Now, with the US election looming, there’s a very real possibility of a more malicious and effective AI campaign targeting Americans. So GZERO AI asked experts what they’re most concerned about in the run-up to Nov. 5. Their overriding concern revolved around misinformation – and how AI is used to create and distribute it – impacting whether and how people vote.
Valerie Wirtschafter, a fellow in the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative at the Brookings Institution, for example, said she was concerned by the onslaught of generative AI images circulating on social media in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene — including ones alleging that the Biden administration wasn’t doing enough to support residents affected by the storm.
“These images were clearly AI, and when pointed out as such, the response was a simple shrug – that the images resonated because they ‘felt accurate’ anyways,” she said.
There hasn’t been any new federal legislation in the US regarding AI use around elections, and the Federal Election Commission recently chose to forgo new rulemaking on the matter ahead of November. That said, OpenAI, Anthropic, and most major AI companies have self-regulated, instituting rules preventing users from using their tools to generate election-related materials, such as images of presidential candidates. Many of them will refuse to provide voting information as well. That said, many of these rules are porous.
Wirtschafter said she’s most concerned about AI-generated media — particularly audio — being used not to affect how people vote but rather if people vote. Audio-generated content, she said, could be used to “try to prevent a targeted but vital subset of the population from voting” or “sow confusion about where and how to vote,” she said.
“While swing states have prepared for this possibility, it is still such a difficult task, and AI-generated content is most impactful at the local and highly targeted level.”
Scott Bade, a senior analyst in Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice, said he’s concerned not only by the use of generative AI in the lead-up to the election but also by how politicians might invoke the technology to help cast doubt on things that are, in fact, true.
Like Wirtschafter, Bade said he’s most worried about anything that “muddies the waters and creates fear and confusion that can suppress votes on election day.”
But the threat won’t end after Americans go to the polls. The 2020 election and aftermath showed how conspiracy theories abound even without generative AI.
Politicians, especially those aligned with Trump, falsely claimed there was widespread voter fraud. Bade warned that AI might be used to affect how voters feel about the “sanctity of the ballot.”
So, what should we do about it? Around the elections, it’s important to keep an eye on the source of the materials you’re viewing, check government websites for reliable voting information, and take everything you hear or see in this age of AI with a grain of salt – even if it confirms your prior assumptions.
“This type of content can be obviously AI-generated but still ‘feel’ correct,” Wirtschafter said.
Harris and Trump take very different approaches in the homestretch
With exactly three weeks left before Election Day, both campaigns are battling it out on the ground for the handful of undecided voters who will decide the election. But the Harris and Trump teams seem to have very different assumptions about what will work.
According to a report by the New York Times, the Harris campaign is using a large, well-established party infrastructure to find, call, and knock on the doors of reliably Democratic voters from past cycles. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, is taking its base for granted and instead using scrappier, less experienced networks to find people who don’t vote regularly but who might be Trump-curious.
What does that tell us? That as we enter the homestretch, the Blue Team, despite the boost in enthusiasm that came after Harris entered the race, is still more worried about shoring up its reliables than about pioneering fresh supporters, while the Red Team is betting it has a message that can bring new voters into the fold.
Where do things stand? The latest polling shows Harris ahead of Trump 48.5 to 46.1 nationwide, and holding a razor-thin lead in key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump holds a similarly slim edge in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.Ian Explains: How Harris and Trump define freedom
Americans love their freedom. And depriving other Americans of said freedom (see: slavery, manifest destiny). But lately it's been the Democratic candidate for president, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been focusing on freedom.
At a recent rally, she said this: "Across our nation, we have been witnessing a full-on assault on hard-won hard-fought freedoms and fundamental rights. The freedom to vote, the freedom to be safe from gun violence, the freedom to love who you love openly and with pride, and the freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body and not have her government tell her what to do."
In the past, Democrats have talked about how the government could protect the freedom to love or the freedom to unionize. Flash forward to 2024, Reagan would be proud. What explains this rhetorical jujitsu? Well, it makes for a handy political foil. Trump could become that threat that Americans need protecting from.
There is, of course, one little problem with this messaging: reality. Because, in reality, Harris fundamentally believes that policy can make people's lives better. Sure, she received some criticism in her debate against Trump for being light on policy, and her campaign waited until well into September to publish an “Issues” page on her website. But make no mistake, Kamala Harris wants to use the levers of big government to build more housing, pass new child tax credits, and modernize education.
So, the question for Kamala—and Donald—is whether enough voters can live with those contradictions. We'll find out when millions of them exercise their most fundamental freedom at the ballot box on November 5th.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Harris, Trump and the hypocrisy in US politics ›
- Will Kamala Harris’ momentum last in the race against Trump? ›
- Trump vs. Harris: A high-stakes election and its risks to democracy ›
- How Harris and Trump plan to tackle America’s housing crisis ›
- Muted mics, amplified impact: Harris and Trump debate for razor-thin margins ›
Buckle up for presidential election madness
The US presidential election is just over three weeks away – and it’s a close race, which means the parties are throwing everything they have into the final weeks of the campaign. For Kamala Harris and the Democrats, that’s a lot. Harris and the Dems have raised over $1 billion dollars since she rose to the top of the ticket, an amount and pace observers say is likely record-breaking.
The cash won’t win the election on its own, but it will help the Harris campaign with its media blitz, including a series of interviews this week on “60 Minutes,” “The Howard Stern Show,” and the popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast as Democrats worry about campaign shortfalls and Donald Trump’s chances of retaking the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaignis busy cleaning up – or trying to clean up – a series of messes, including a new book by journalist Bob Woodward that claims Trump has kept in touch with Vladimir Putinsince leaving office and that he sent the Russian president COVID-19 testing equipment at the height of the pandemic. Trump and the campaign deny the claims.
Trump is also claiming, without evidence, that he has visited Gaza, and he’s using hurricanes Helene and Milton to make false claims about the Biden administration’s disaster response and Harris’ record.
Nonetheless, the Trump campaign is doing double-time in key states ahead of the November vote, outpacing by on his own Harris and Walz’s combined effort. When you add vice president contender JD Vance’s events, the Republicans come out way ahead. The Trump campaign is also deploying a new get-out-the-vote model that it’s betting big on, particularly in tight states that will likely determine the election. Trump is also working to mobilize its male voters, and has recently gained some support from Black men who are turning away from Harris.
According to the 538 election model, Harris is currently projected to win 53 out of 100 times in its simulations compared to Trump’s 47 victories – and in a tiny fraction of the simulations, there is no electoral college winner, the ultimate chaos scenario – and one to watch closely.