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The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality
As the candidates make their final arguments in the 2024 US Presidential Election, the economy is front and center on the minds of voters. Despite all signs indicating stable and above-trend growth in the US, many Americans feel uncertain about how well the economy is doing, said Robert Kahn, Managing Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group. He discussed the gap in US economic perception versus reality with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a Global Stage interview. Kahn noted that heightened political polarization has skewed views of economic performance while lingering geopolitical shocks and high prices add to concerns. Kahn emphasized that there is an element of worry around the “legacy of the pandemic…that Vice President Harris is just really struggling to overcome” even though underlying data proves otherwise. The two also discussed former President Trump's accusations that the Federal Reserve is "playing politics" with interest rates and what the impact would be globally if Trump were, as president, to assert a heavier hand in decision-making at the central bank.
Ian Bremmer on the US election & crisis of democracy
With the US presidential election less than two weeks away, Ian Bremmer weighed in on who could come out on top in his "State of the World" speech at the 2024 GZERO Summit in Tokyo. Bremmer says the US faces a crisis of democracy, but who does he think will win the upcoming election? Watch to hear his prediction.
The US election: Freedom on the ballot
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, we're mere weeks away from Election Day in one of the closest and most tumultuous national elections in American history. Both candidates are making their pitches to voters, and show guest, author and historian Timothy Snyder, argues that what they're really pitching are two different versions of freedom. Snyder discusses the election by drawing from his latest book, “On Freedom,” an exploration into how freedom is used—and often misused—in society and politics.
Snyder argues that America would do well to think about freedom in a more positive light, particularly in terms of freedom "to" rather than freedom "from." Freedom "to" vote, to control your own body, to love whom you want." Rather than freedom "from" oppression, for instance. “Freedom is about a future which is better than the present. Freedom is about all the good things that we might know about and all the good things we have yet to discover. It's not about anger, it's not about barriers.”
In taking a bird’s eye view of the many ways freedom can be interpreted, Snyder zeros in on Ukraine. He reflects on how Ukrainians often use the word “de-occupation” instead of liberation, because he believes that freedom is means towards a better future, rather than the end goal. “The word de-occupation reminds you that that is still just the beginning. You have to clear the rubble, and rebuild the playgrounds, and the buses and the trains have to start running again.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Trump-Harris debate: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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Will the DNC momentum take Democrats all the way?
Watch full episode: Kamala Harris makes her case
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO’s YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Kamala Harris makes her case
Vice President Kamala Harris closed out a historic week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that rallied Democrats around themes of freedom, joy, and unity. Harris used the DNC to try to show US voters that she can unite all Americans behind a ‘new way forward,’ but did she succeed in making the case for a Harris-Walz ticket? On GZERO World, former Congresswoman Donna Edwards and presidential historian Douglas Brinkley joined Ian Bremmer to give their take on a truly unprecedented DNC that capped off one of the most extraordinary months in modern political history. Joe Biden and Democrats passed the baton to a new generation of political leaders, showcasing the talent and diversity within the Party. While the energy in the United Center was like nothing Dems have seen since Barack Obama led the ticket, Harris will be the first to point out that she is still very much the underdog in this election. And with polls showing the presidential race is essentially tied between the two parties, will any convention bump be too little too late to defeat Donald Trump?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO’s YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Kamala Harris' big moment — Rep. Donna Edwards and Douglas Brinkley weigh in on a historic week at the DNC
Listen: Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic nomination for president after a historic week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which focused on messages of freedom, optimism, and unity. On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, former Congresswoman Donna Edwards and presidential historian Douglas Brinkley join host Ian Bremmer to share their insights on a truly unprecedented DNC and history-making month in US political history. Harris pitched herself as a pragmatic leader who could unite all Americans behind a “new way forward,” but how successful was she in making her case for a Harris-Walz ticket? From powerful speeches on the convention floor to a dance party roll call, the four-day event showcased the talent, diversity, and optimism within the Party. As the dust settles, the challenge for Harris will be maintaining that enthusiasm all the way to Election Day. With the latest polls showing the presidential race is neck and neck between the two parties, the biggest question will be whether the DNC won over a crucial demographic: the undecided voter.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
DNC unites around 3 key themes
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from the DNC in Chicago.
What we're watching in US Politics: The running themes at the Democratic National Convention.
I'm here in Chicago for the third night of the Democratic National Convention, where Tim Walz, the vice presidential nominee, just spoke this evening at the United Center.
A couple of key themes have jumped out to me so far in this convention. The first is the attempt to turn the focus on Donald Trump thinking only of himself. This is something that you heard Pete Buttigieg talk about, it's something you heard Bill Clinton talk about, and it seems like this is an emerging major theme for Democrats to hit on, is that Donald Trump doesn't actually care about America all that much. He cares about himself. So, that's going to be one thing you hear about a lot going forward.
The second thing is the Democrats trying to reclaim "freedom" as a concept and as a term that actually it fits more with their values than what they say are Republican values. And this has been something that Tim Walz has talked a lot about, you heard Michelle Obama talk about it, and you heard Oprah Winfrey talk about it. That freedom is about people being free from the government messing around with what's going on inside their bedrooms or what's going on inside their doctor's offices, obviously references to social policies where Democrats and Republicans have large differences; and attempting to flip the script on several decades of political rhetoric about who actually is the party of freedom. So, that's another thing you'd expect to hear a lot about in the coming weeks and months.
The third big theme of this convention so far has been celebrating Kamala Harris's background as a prosecutor. Now, this isn't really something we heard a lot about in the 2020 campaign; perhaps because of the George Floyd riots that were happening at the same time, and the fact that many Democrats were turning openly skeptical of police and policing. But now, fast-forward four years later where crime is a growing issue in the political discourse, and you have a lot of focus on Harris's background as a prosecutor; they talk about her prosecuting transnational drug gangs, her prosecuting people like Donald Trump, who of course has felony convictions now in his background.
So, those are three themes we've heard so far at the Democratic National Convention, and I think those are things we're going to hear a lot of over the next 74 days. On night four, Kamala Harris is set to make her own pitch for why she should be president. And of course, the crowd in Chicago will be euphoric and jubilant listening to her. But the real question here is, do any of these messages resonate with moderate voters that they need to win?
So, thanks for watching. We'll be here tomorrow in Chicago, and we'll see you then.
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