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President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.
Japan, US, South Korea unite against North Korea-Russia Pact
The next day, Japan’s foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, met his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, in Kyiv, to reaffirm Tokyo’s support for Ukraine and discuss further sanctions against Russia. Sybiha accused Pyongyang of feeding Moscow’s war machine in exchange for access to Russian military program, including missiles and nuclear weapons. Then on Sunday, Japan announced it will begin holding regular joint exercises with US troops in Australia starting in 2025, as those three countries strengthen their security ties amid growing threats from China.
Japan’s new PM: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will there be political fallout in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene?
Lots of fallout for the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Carolinas and elsewhere, but the biggest damage is in both rural areas that largely vote "red" and urban areas that largely vote "blue." And frankly, that's a wash. Horrible morbid pun there, but the reality, I don't think it's going to be much impact come November.
What were the big takeaways from President Xi's speech celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China?
Well, first of all, very interesting. He didn't mention trade war, didn't mention the United States or other potential adversaries on the economic, technological military front by name. Did mention Taiwan, talked about the need to end the separatists and reunify, but nothing new there compared to other statements that he and other leaders have made. I would say the most important thing he talked about are the expectations of serious challenges going forward for the Chinese people. This is coming from a leader who is starting to move towards stimulus as opposed to just sort of incremental responses to economic challenges. A recognition that if they want to hit anywhere close to the 5% plus growth they want, they're going to need to do a lot from the fiscal side as the government. But he's messaging that this is going to be a hard time and it's structural. It's not a matter of a few months, it's a matter of years. And especially with the politics around the world and in the United States not working so well for China right now, that's a message that I think was more for domestic consumption than for international.
Finally, as Japan's new Prime Minister assembles his government, how will he set himself apart from former PM, Kishida?
Well, he's not a "pro-Abenomics" guy. This is someone that I think is going to be challenging from a market perspective. He's going to be fiscally very cautious. He's going to look to raise more revenue, and he's not really loved by the business community. It was the fifth time he tried to become Prime Minister, the former Minister of Defense. Fifth time's the charm apparently in the LDP. I'm not so concerned about potential changes on the international front. He's talked about an "Asian NATO" which is kind of a non-starter from the perspective of the United States. He does want joint control of bases in Okinawa,. That's changed the status quo. But ultimately, if the US pushes back, he'll accept that. The interesting thing about Japan is it's basically a single-party democracy. The Liberal Democratic Party really runs the show. They have an absolute majority in the Diet. They're likely to continue that after snap elections coming up real soon. And so it's really a question of which of the various factions inside that party who largely agree on worldview and on domestic policies ends up running the government. And this time around it is the former Minister of Defense.
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- Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan ›
- Viewpoint: Kishida makes way for fresh face as his party's fortunes fade in Japan ›
Japanese Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a front-runner in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race.
Viewpoint: Kishida makes way for fresh face as his party's fortunes fade in Japan
After Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last month that he would not seek a new three-year term as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, the winner of the party’s leadership contest on Sept. 27 will replace Kishida as prime minister. Given his low approval ratings, Kishida had been under mounting pressure to step aside.
Ahead of the Sept. 12 start of the official campaign for the LDP’s leadership, we asked Eurasia Group expert David Boling to explain the significance of this contest.
Kishida won’t be running for a new term as LDP president. What happens next?
Nine candidates have announced that they’ll be running ahead of the 15-day campaign period. Because of this record number of candidates, a same-day runoff between the top two candidates is a near certainty soon after the first round of voting. LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members will have the right to vote. But in the runoff, the votes of the lawmakers have substantially more weight.
Because the LDP controls the lower house, whoever is elected as the new party head will be approved by the parliament to become Japan’s next prime minister within days of the leadership contest. That person will form a cabinet soon after taking office and will probably call a lower house election in October or November.
Why did Kishida make this decision?
Kishida’s approval ratings have been abysmal since November. That’s when a political fundraising scandal exploded involving many LDP politicians. His average approval ratings fell well below 30% — in some polls below 20% — and have been stuck there since.
A June poll showed that only 10% of respondents wanted Kishida to continue as prime minister. Although Kishida has handled Japan’s foreign relations very well, he has also struggled to manage the economy. Inflation has not been as high in Japan as in other countries, but it has had a very negative political impact on Kishida. Even modest increases in prices cause great anxiety for the Japanese public after decades of deflation.
Do you expect this leadership change to have a big impact on policy?
Probably not. The LDP has ruled Japan for most of the post-war era and whoever is ultimately the new prime minister will hail from the party. The LDP is a center-right party and a staunch supporter of the US-Japan alliance. That will not change.
On economic policy, there could be some shift in fiscal or monetary policy, depending on who wins. But my guess is that it will not be dramatic. Japan is the land of incrementalism. Dramatic shifts in policy are not part of its DNA.
The current front-runners for the job of party leader — based on polling of LDP supporters — are former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Environmental Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and current Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.
How about on the next election?
A big reason why Kishida was ousted is that LDP politicians were becoming increasingly worried about the party’s prospects in the next lower house election, especially with Kishida as the face of the party.
The LDP itself now has low approval ratings, mainly owing to the political fundraising scandal. A sense of panic had started to take hold among party members that the LDP could lose a significant number of seats in the lower house election, which must occur by October 2025.
How the LDP does in that election will depend a lot on who party members choose as their next standard bearer. If they opt for a leader who represents a break from business-as-usual politics, they’ll probably do well. The opposition parties are weak and splintered, so that redounds to the LDP’s benefit, too.
But if the LDP elects a business-as-usual, old-school politician, they may suffer some losses.
Japan has a history of frequent prime minister changes – why is that?
Yes, there have been periods of rapid turnover. In particular, from 2006-2012, Japan changed prime ministers about once a year — a proverbial revolving door.
But then Shinzo Abe returned as prime minister in 2012 and was in power for a remarkably long time, until 2020. Comparatively speaking, Kishida has been a rather long-serving prime minister, at about three years. That makes him the eighth longest-serving prime minister in the post-war era.
The LDP’s long-standing parliamentary majority makes it the party most likely to produce a prime minister. Yet, the LDP’s own internal party rules – such as a vote to renew its leadership every three years – create a system that can replace prime ministers frequently.
Though forced to make these frequent leadership changes, the LDP has held onto power for most of the post-war period – why is that?
The Japanese public supports the LDP’s basic policy stances as a conservative, pro-business, pro-US alliance party. So, the LDP has been skillful at tracking the overall mood of the Japanese public.
When the LDP lost power from 2009-2012, the ruling party at the time — the Democratic Party — did a miserable job. Many Japanese have bad memories of that time.
They remain skeptical of the opposition parties’ ability to govern, as a result. Opposition parties in Japan are not seen as ready for prime time. So, although the Japanese public may grouse about the LDP, they trust it to manage the country more than they do the opposition parties.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are pictured ahead of their trilateral summit at the White House in Washington on April 11, 2024.
Manila gets a big boost, but does it matter to Beijing?
Washington and Tokyo promised Manila they would help secure its seas and upgrade its infrastructure at their trilateral summit in Washington on Thursday — all big gestures, but what do they look like from Beijing?
Political winds have shifted against China in the Philippines since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power in June 2022. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, allegedly sealed a secret deal with China that is now at the center of a dangerous conflict in the South China Sea.
Duterte allegedly agreed not to send reconstruction supplies to a beached ship that Manila uses to control the disputed South Thomas Shoal. Marcos said Wednesday he was “horrified” by any deal that tells Manila what it can do on its own territory, but his attempts to resupply the hulk in March were intercepted by Chinese ships, resulting in injuries. If an incident like this turns deadly, it could spark a war that brings in America and Japan, hence the show of unity in Washington.
Beijing also sees the South Thomas Shoal as a sovereignty issue, and nothing Joe Biden or Fumio Kishida promised today is likely to change China’s tune. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Thursday reiterated warnings against violating Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022.
What’s happening to the yen, in plain English
Japan’s yen was trading at just a hair under 152 to the US dollar Wednesday, the weakest rate in 34 years, triggering speculation about a government intervention. But what the heck does that mean?
The background. Japan’s economy has had a weird problem for a long time: deflation. While most central banks worldwide have set high interest rates to combat inflation, Japan only last week ended its controversial negative interest rate policy.
The problem. Your economics textbook says the yen should have risen a bit. Higher interest rates make money more scarce — supply and demand gets to work — and voila.
Not quite.
Wary of spooking consumers, the Bank of Japan emphasized its commitment to keeping borrowing costs low. The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has been signaling it will keep interest rates high (and thus, dollars scarce relative to yen) for a while longer. Essentially, investors looking ahead dumped their yen and bought greenbacks.
The politics. A weak yen worsens Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s already shaky position by making Japan’s imports — particularly energy — more costly. Tokyo may now have to sell dollars and buy yen to prop up its currency, but the optics are poor.
“It's not a great look for the Bank of Japan to take historic steps that should have strengthened the yen and then for the opposite to happen, causing the Ministry of Finance to jawbone the currency to prop it up,” says Eurasia Group analyst David Boling.President Joe Biden Meets With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC in January 2023.
US and Japan will upgrade military ties
In the past, US military planners have treated Japan as a forward position for its troops in East Asia, but without much coordination with historically underdeveloped Japanese forces, and this move underscores the deeper investment Japan has made in recent years in its own military capabilities.
It’s also a response to a perceived growing threat from China, including in the Taiwan Strait. (The Kishida administration has referred to Taiwan as Japan’s “extremely crucial partner and an important friend.”)
It signals a stronger stance by the US and its East Asian allies on threats from North Korea. And thanks to the improvements in Japan’s relationship with South Korea, Seoul is not objecting to the upgraded ties as it once might have..
The specifics will take months for senior US and Japanese officials to hash out, but even the initial announcement will raise heart rates in Beijing.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kihsida speaks to media at the Prime Minister’s office in Tokyo on Oct. 12, 2023.
Japan moves to punish Unification Church
Japan’s government has asked a court to strike the legal status of the Unification Church, which has been at the center of an investigation for over a year following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe. Abe’s killer, Tetsuya Yamagami, was outraged that the church had solicited hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations from his mother, ruining the family’s finances.
Yamagami told police he believed Abe was a supporter of the church, and while never a member, Abe did praise the movement’s family values. After the assassination, it was revealed that dozens of ruling Liberal Democratic Party politicians had connections to the church, including Abe’s grandfather. PM Fumio Kishida replaced his defense and economy ministers amid these revelations and passed stricter laws on how religious groups can fundraise.
Will this be the undoing of the church? It stands to lose its tax-exempt status, which it has allegedly exploited as it pressured members into making enormous donations. The government estimates the Church pressured about 1,550 individuals to donate an average of around ¥13 million (roughly $86,000) each.
The church is likely to appeal, and the case may go before Japan’s Supreme Court, but there is good reason to expect the government to win. Courts, after all, have already used the same powers to crack down on an exorcism cult and a terrorist sect.
Whatever goes down in court, the church’s political influence has already evaporated.
“It’s toast,” says Eurasia Group Japan expert David Boling, of the church’s future in Japan, adding that the court case may help Kishida as he eyes possible snap elections. “The Japanese public fully supports this move, so it's a political freebie for Kishida. The LDP wants nothing to do with the Unification Church.”
For more on the Unification Church and its role in Japanese politics, read our deep dive here. And, check out more of Boling’s insights on Kishida’s political outlook here.