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Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident
Hard Numbers: Kosovo indicts terrorists, Huawei tries to fold up Apple, Afghan women hold summit, Malaysia rescues hundreds of abused kids, Black enrollment at Harvard falls, The Swift effect
45: Kosovo has indicted 45 ethnic Serbs on terrorism charges, stemming from a raid on a historic Serbian monastery in Kosovo last year that left three gunmen and a local police officer dead. The suspects are believed to be in Serbia, which has no extradition agreement with Kosovo. The indictments come as the EU pushes again for progress in normalization talks between the Serbian government and Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008. For background on the Serbia/Kosovo conflict, see here.
2,800: Do you want a smartphone that isn’t made by Apple? Does that cellphone need to have a 10-inch folding screen? If so, then for a mere $2,800, you too can have a Huawei Mate XT, the Chinese company’s answer to the iPhone 16, which was unveiled this week. So far, there are reportedly more than 5 million pre-orders for the device.
130: More than 130 Afghan women are attending an All Afghan Women summit in Albania this week, a three-day event convened to advocate for the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan following the US withdrawal in 2021, the group has imposed what the UN has called “outrageous” restrictions on women and girls, who are largely unable to attend school and whose voices and faces have been banned in public.
400: Malaysian law enforcement on Wednesday rescued more than 400 minors suspected of being victims of sexual abuse at Islamic charity homes. The homes were all run by Global Ikhwan Services and Business, a Malaysian conglomerate that operates a range of consumer services in at least half a dozen countries. More than 170 adult authority figures at the charity homes were arrested as part of the operation.
4: The share of Black students in the first year class at Harvard this autumn fell by 4 points, to 14%. This is the first incoming class since the Supreme Court last year ruled, in effect, that colleges could no longer use race as a factor in determining admissions. The percent of Hispanic students rose two points to 16%, while Asian-American representation was unchanged at 37%. The share of students who refused to disclose their race or ethnicity doubled, to 8%.
330K+: Despite saying on Wednesday that Taylor Swift’s post-debate endorsement of Kamala Harris “was just a question of time” and that she’d “probably pay a price for it,” Donald Trump may struggle to shake it off. Why? Because the pop icon’s Tuesday night Instagram post, which lauded Harris as a “warrior” for the rights and causes she believes in, has driven over 330,000 clicks to Vote.org, a site where wannabe first-time voters learn how to register.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during an interview with Reuters in Belgrade, Serbia, September 28, 2023.
Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks
Well, even as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts gets steadily worse, there’s at least a chance that another will get slightly better. This Saturday, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo will meet with US and EU officials to try to revive peace talks.
It will be the first time the two have met since tensions spiked last month due to a deadly shootout between Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo and local Kosovar police officers. Kosovo accused Serbia of plotting the attack, while Belgrade briefly mobilized its troops to the border before backing down under US pressure.
Background: Albanian-majority Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, after a decade of war and Serbian attempts at ethnic cleansing. Serbia, which considers Kosovo part of its ancestral heartland, doesn’t recognize the Kosovar government – nor do ethnic Serb communities living in northern Kosovo.
The talks will aim to revive an EU-brokered peace framework that envisions de facto recognition of Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving broad autonomy to Serbs in the north.
There is a strong incentive to make progress: The EU will soon begin meetings on enlarging the union. Serbia and Kosovo both want in, but Brussels has been clear that it can’t happen until they make peace.
For more on the “dangerous limbo” of Serbia-Kosovo relations, see our explainer here.
FILE PHOTO: Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident, in Banjska village, Kosovo September 27, 2023.
Is Serbia really about to do something extreme in Kosovo?
Things are getting hot again between Serbia and Kosovo. The US and NATO have both sounded the alarm after a recent gun battle between Kosovo police and Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo left several people dead, prompting what the White House called an “unprecedented” buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border.
The background, briefly: In 2008, after nearly 20 years of conflict, majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, with US backing. But many ethnic Serbs who still live in Northern Kosovo reject the legitimacy of the Kosovar government, which Serbia itself has never recognized. The outlines of a Serbia-Kosovo agreement call for Kosovo to grant autonomy to ethnic Serb areas. Clashes have periodically erupted over local elections and even license plates.
Is a wider war coming? Kosovo says Serbia is poised to invade Kosovo in what would be an eerie echo of Azerbaijan’s shock move against Nagorno-Karabakh last week — i.e., a long-running ethnic dispute in which the stronger party makes a move while the EU and US are distracted by Ukraine. And yet, over the weekend, Belgrade drew down its forces along the border after getting an earful from both Brussels and Washington.
That’s because Serbia has another interest at stake too. It still wants to see progress on its decade-old EU accession bid when the Union meets to discuss enlargement this winter. Although Serbian views on membership are split, and Belgrade’s cozy Russia ties are a further complication, President Alexander Vučić knows that invading Kosovo would be suicidal for any EU hopes.
But there’s a catch there too: Neither Serbia nor Kosovo — which has also applied to join — has any hope of getting into the EU until they resolve their own conflict first, a prospect that does not look promising at the moment.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.
Police officers patrol in the aftermath of a shooting, at the road to Banjska village, Kosovo September 24, 2023.
Trouble brews in the Balkans
Is Europe’s tinderbox once again set to explode?
Tensions are running high in Kosovo after three people were killed in a gun battle in a monastery in Leposavic, near the Serbian border. About thirty armed men stormed the building following a battle with police at a road blockade near the village of Banska, in which one officer was killed. Police managed to regain control of the monastery, arrested 6 gunmen, and found "an “extraordinarily large amount of weaponry and ammunition, explosives.”
According to Prime Minister Albin Kurti, police were attacked by "professionals, with military and police background" and police said they had used "an arsenal of firearms, including hand grenades and shoulder-fired missiles.” Kurti blamed "Serbia-sponsored criminals" for the attack. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucicspoke later on Sunday, condemned the attack but accused the Kosovo authorities of “brutal” treatment of the Kosovo Serbs.
Violence has been escalating following the Kosovo government’s decision to install ethnic Albanian mayors in four Serb-majority municipalities in May. Demonstrations ensued, including one in which thirty NATO peacekeepers were injured.
This latest incident comes one week after EU-mediated talks designed to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province ended in stalemate. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, a decade after a bloody war with Serbia that claimed 10,000 lives, but Belgrade has since refused to recognize the country.
As a means of cooling the temperature, Brussels warned both countries that unless they put their differences aside and abide by the EU’s ten-point plan to end the latest round of tensions, they will not be allowed entry into the EU. If what happened this weekend is any indication, however, that goal is still a long way off.
Nervous mood in Russia after drone strikes
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics (this week from Stockholm).
Will recent drone attacks in Moscow lead to Russian escalation in Ukraine?
I think there's nervousness in Moscow. The drone attacks have been, Putin was trying to play down. He couldn't do very much else. He said our defenses are working, but nothing was perfect. I think there's also nervousness on what might happen on the battlefront. What are Ukrainians up to? Will there be some sort of success in some sort of Ukrainian offensive? A nervous mood, we don't know. The inclination of Putin is always to escalate whenever he can.
Are Serbia-Kosovo relations deteriorating into another conflict?
Well, we are not heading to a new war, but we are clearly heading towards, or we are in a fairly rapid deterioration of the situation. There was a breakthrough in negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo a couple of months ago in Ohrid. It was difficult to move forward on that. It was difficult to move forward also on the measures that needs to be taken on the ground, but that it was moves taken primarily by Pristina that led to the clash that we've seen in northern Kosovo. And now the situation is deteriorating fairly rapidly. NATO's deploying additional forces, but it will require some fairly robust diplomacy to get things back to track. Let's hope for the best but be prepared for something else.
NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) soldiers clash with local Kosovo Serb protesters
Kosovo flareups intensify
NATO is deploying additional troops to its peacekeeping mission in Northern Kosovo after clashes with local ethnic Serb protesters on Monday left dozens injured on both sides.
The Balkan backgrounder: Majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a decade after Serbia waged a brutal war to crush Kosovo’s autonomy. But neither Serbia nor the ethnic Serbian majority in Northern Kosovo recognize Kosovo’s independence.
As a result, in the years since, tensions have often flared over which government is legitimate in the area, and a peace deal that would give local Serbs autonomy has never been implemented. Nearly 4,000 NATO peacekeepers are still stationed in Kosovo to keep things in check.
The latest flare-up: In April, Kosovo held local elections in Northern Kosovo that were boycotted by the local ethnic Serb majority. Over the weekend, the ethnic-Albanian officials who won those votes moved into their offices. Serb protesters tried to block them but were dispersed by Kosovar riot police and NATO troops in clashes that injured at least 30 peacekeepers and 50 protesters.
Serbia is now putting its own troops on alert to defend ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, while Belgrade’s traditional allies in Moscow have blamed Kosovo and the West for the crisis. The US and EU have called for de-escalation, but Washington, normally a strong backer of Kosovo, has also criticized the Kosovan government’s decision to install the ethnic-Albanian officials over Serb objections.
More protests are scheduled for Wednesday…
Protesters against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to reform the electoral authority, in Mexico City, Mexico, February 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mexicans protest AMLO changes, North Korea seeks grain, Iran hearts Ipanema, a controversial kiss from Kosovo
500,000 or 90,000?: How many people in Mexico City took part in recent mass protests against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s overhaul of the electoral system? Organizers say 500,000 turned out to oppose the changes, which would weaken independent election oversight. But authorities in Mexico City, which is controlled by AMLO’s party, say it was only 90,000.
1 million: North Korea is estimated to be short at least 1 million tons of grain right now because of mismanagement and pandemic-related interruptions of imports from China. That’s equal to about one-fifth of the Hermit Kingdom’s annual consumption. In the past, North Korea has suffered famines so bad that people were forced to eat grass and tree bark.
2: Brazil’s government allowed two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend, despite demands from the US to turn them away. The move is a reminder that although Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden may see eye to eye on a lot, Lula’s perspective — in line with much of the Global South — often differs from Washington’s on key issues such as China, Iran, and Ukraine.
3: The young Kosovo artist Ermira Murati has gotten thousands of threats over her striking, 3-meter tall painting of Kosovo PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic kissing. The two leaders, who famously despise each other, are meeting early this week in Brussels to try to reach a peace deal. Here’s our recent piece on why that’s so hard to do. And, while we’re kissing in the former Eastern bloc, here’s one of the greatest smooches of the 20th century.