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NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What are you watching for at the NATO summit?
Well, first and foremost, it's how all of these allies are responding to a very real political crisis in the United States. US, of course, the country they rely on for leading NATO, by far the biggest military power in the world, their principal ally. And they now know that the likelihood that Biden is going to be able to win, is a lot lower than it was the last time they saw him. And they've been seeing him. They saw him at the G7. They saw him in Normandy. They saw him, you know, at the United Nations and some in bunch of bilats and and everyone I've spoken to, says that they're not all confident that he can win. They certainly don't think he can serve out four more years. And they're deeply worried, especially because what a Trump administration might mean for them, with the exception of Viktor Orbán, almost all the NATO allies are very worried. They know that NATO, the EU, the war in Ukraine, all of that much more uncertain if Trump were to come back as president. So that's what I'm watching for and see how that plays out.
How will the UK's new PM, Keir Starmer, lead Britain?
Economically, not all that different. He's focused unusually for labor, focused on a pro-growth policy. He's promised that he isn't going to raise the major taxes like income tax and VAT. And so, he will probably find some more money in things like inheritance tax, he’s going to try to get more private sector investment into the economy. Certainly, wants to have a consistent policy on Ukraine, consistent policy on the United States as the previous conservative governments. Big change will be tried to reestablish stronger relations with the European Union and particularly Ursula von der Leyen, expected to get the nod for another five years running the EU. Keir Starmer spent a lot of personal time working on that over the past months.
As a Russian missile struck a children's hospital in Kyiv is there still no end in sight for the war in Ukraine?
No, no, there's no end in sight. in fact, while that was happening, Narendra Modi, the Indian PM was being quite friendly in Moscow on his visit with Putin. This is a partner of the United States. Putin feels like right now, especially if Trump is elected that his bet on this invasion in Ukraine will work out well for him. And that is not what NATO allies want Putin to be thinking right now. There's been success in getting them a lot of support, the Ukrainians, over the course of the last six months, and certainly they're going to have more money over the next year. But longer term, there's a huge question about how that plays out. And Putin is showing impunity right at the beginning of the NATO summit by sending all those missiles at civilian targets, including sick kids in Ukraine. Not a surprise. but still pretty sickening.
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Marina Kudriavtseva teaches her pupils in the dark in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Marina and the children
Today, as we mark one full year of war in Ukraine, we step beyond our coverage of presidents, soldiers, diplomats, and weapons to speak with a person working inside the conflict to build a better future in the most direct way possible.
Marina Kudriavtseva is a teacher of small children. She lives and works in Kyiv. (Her responses have been translated from Ukrainian.)
Marina, tell us about your work.
I’ve been a teacher for 12 years. For the past two years, I’ve taught children aged 5-8 at an after-school education institution called the Kyiv State House of Artistic and Technical Creativity. I teach a total of 28 children in small groups of up to six. We call the groups “circles” rather than “classes.”
My program is aimed at the development of attention, memory, logical thinking, imagination, the ability to analyze, speech development, and creativity. They also learn socialization, safety strategies, and etiquette.
I call this two-year program "Me and the world around me."
What happens in the school when an air raid siren goes off?
The siren can be heard all over Kyiv and on applications installed on mobile phones. [Here is the sound of the alarm.] When an air alert is announced, there is an automatic announcement on the phone.
I then inform the children that we must all go to the shelter. Everyone must put on their coats, hats, and shoes because we have to go outside to reach the shelter nearby. I take what I can – a game or a book – so we can continue our work. I also take an "anxiety suitcase" that contains antiseptic, napkins, garbage bags, a first aid kit, a blanket, a flashlight, candles, and a lighter.
We leave together and go to the shelter. We settle down there and continue our classes. We talk, we play, and we wait for the sound of the air alarm that tells us it’s safe to return to our classroom.
How do the children respond to the alarms?
The children react differently to the siren. Some are more or less calm. Some get scared and begin to cry. Sometimes there are children who panic. Some children know the procedure so well that we have to stop them because they move too quickly. We must all leave the class together.
Someone needs help, another just needs to be reassured, because I see they are worried. Some become very angry. I am sure the support of teachers is very important to them. We try to do everything we can so that they always feel this support. They are courageous.
What is it like to teach during wartime?
At any moment, you must be ready to interrupt a lesson when the children may be doing something with enthusiasm – listening, searching for something, making something with plasticine clay or paper, solving an interesting problem. Suddenly there is anxiety. You drop everything, get dressed, and go to the shelter. You must always have a "plan B" in your head. "What will I do with the children if we must go the shelter?"
Shelters are not equipped for training. We do what we can. I downloaded some tasks to my phone. Someone uses a tablet. Those who need musical accompaniment bring Bluetooth speakers with them ... We use everything we can quickly carry.
Now … imagine this happens several times a day. Now add a power outage. The lights all go out. Flashlights must be ready. And we continue. Teachers and all who work in education know this is our duty. We hold the “educational front!" I hope you can translate this saying correctly. [In Ukrainian, the phrase is "Тримаємо освітній фронт.”]
The parents trust us. They understand the requirements that exist now. Almost every child has a small backpack filled by their parents as their own kind of “anxiety suitcase” when it is necessary to stay in the shelter.
What else would you like people outside Ukraine to know about the children and their lives?
I would really like everyone who is safe outside of Ukraine, who is not threatened by war every day, every minute, to understand what happiness it is to live in peace. I would really like them to know how strong and courageous our children are, who, unfortunately, are forced to grow up much earlier than children in other countries. These are children who at the age of 5 already know what danger is.
I want them to know that our children cannot live the full and carefree life they should have. That many children of Ukraine will never see their parents again. They will never return to their homes. The word "war" will be remembered forever. And many more terrible things that no normal person would wish on anyone.
But I also want them to know that our children will grow up strong. And all of us adults who are with them will continue to do everything we can to keep them together. They have studied. They have had fun and laughed, even in bomb shelters. They have received gifts and participated in contests. They have won. Their talents are growing and blossoming as they grow. We want them to be confident and to know that we will overcome all difficulties and win.
“Like I’m living in the forest”: a darkened Kyiv faces General Winter
By any measure, it’s been a good few months for the Ukrainian military. Kyiv’s commanders have liberated thousands of square miles of territory occupied by Russia earlier in the war.
But now, the Ukrainian people face perhaps their biggest test yet. The Kremlin, reeling from Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes, has enlisted the help of a reliable Russian ally.
“Vladimir Putin has tried to weaponize winter,” warned NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a recent alliance summit in Bucharest.
Ukrainians vs Putin and an Ancient Russian Ally | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
General Moroz (“General Frost”), as the seasonal help is known in Russian, has been sweeping in to bail out Moscow since the days of Napoleon. Now, Putin is making his own 21st-century effort to freeze the Ukrainian population into submission.
For weeks, barrages of Russian cruise missiles have deliberately targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Key facilities of Ukrenergo, the national energy company, have been struck more than a dozen times since October, reducing Ukraine's ability to provide heat and power to its people at a time when nighttime temperatures begin to dip below freezing.
After one recent strike in mid-November, half the country was left without power, according to Human Rights Watch. A subsequent strike several days later left Kyiv, a city of three million, entirely in the dark. Now, major cities are forced to ration power to conserve resources. Cuts to electricity – and with it, water for apartment buildings – can come as often as three times a day now.
Russia says that energy infrastructure is a legitimate target, arguing that power plants are used to support Ukraine’s military as part of the war effort. But human rights watchdogs disagree.
“Russia appears to be seeking unlawfully to create terror among civilians and make life unsustainable for them,” according to a new Human Rights Watch assessment of Russia’s approach.
The World Health Organization says as much as a quarter of Ukraine’s 40 million people are now without power, warning of a “therma-crisis” this winter.
For Iryna B., a 25-year-old translator who moved to the capital shortly before Russia invaded in February, life in the city is getting harder.
“It’s absolutely dead here – no electricity, no water, no cell coverage,” she told GZERO Media on a recent walk through the nighttime streets of a frigid, blacked-out Kyiv. “I feel like I’m living in the forest.”
But Iryna says Kyivans are undaunted. After all, Ukraine has already held at bay a much larger enemy whom many expected to roll to a swift victory when the war began 10 months ago.
What’s more, Kyiv was the prize of two of the most brutal battles on World War II’s Eastern Front – a history that people here still remember.
“We’ve become very flexible as Ukrainians,” Iryna says. “I wouldn't say this is something very unique for us, because we have a history. Many people [have gone] through such things and yeah ... we're tough.”
Vladimir Putin has enlisted a formidable ally in winter, but the resilience of Iryna and her fellow Kyivans suggests the Russian president may, yet again, have underestimated his Ukrainian opponents. Perhaps only springtime will tell.
For now, “life goes on as it used to, and if there is no power, no water,” Iryna says, "we will get through it. This won’t lessen our solidarity – it will only make it stronger.”
Cars burn after a Russian military strike in central Kyiv.
What We’re Watching: Terror in Kyiv, World Bank/IMF meetings
Putin lashed out after Crimea bridge blast
On Monday, Russia unleashed a barrage of air strikes against major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. Lviv, which had been considered a safe haven for those fleeing the fighting in eastern Ukraine, was also hit. Although we don't have a death toll yet, it'll be high because the attacks occurred during rush hour and targeted civilian areas. The missiles also destroyed critical infrastructure, knocked out power, and sent civilians into bomb shelters for the first time in months.
It's a steep military escalation by the Kremlin following Saturday's explosion on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia, which Vladimir Putin blamed on Ukrainian "terrorists." Putin ordered the strikes before meeting his national security council, presumably to come up with a response to the blast. No official word from the Kremlin, but Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, a hardliner and staunch Putin ally, voiced his support for the reprisal, saying that he’s finally 100% satisfied with the way the “special military operation” in Ukraine is being carried out. Kadyrov and far-right commentators had been calling for Moscow to take revenge by hitting Ukraine’s key infrastructure.
The ferocity of Monday's offensive highlights how much the Kerch Strait Bridge means to Russia ... and to Putin. The only physical connection Russia has with the peninsula it seized eight years ago was opened with much fanfare in 2018 by Putin himself to solidify the annexation. Apart from that symbolism, it also has great strategic value as an essential supply link to Russian forces fighting in southern Ukraine. The Russians got it partially up and running by Sunday, but the damage on the bridge will likely restrict Russian military movements, forcing Moscow to rely on maritime ferries for troop and equipment logistics as well as the hard-to-traverse “land bridge” through the four Ukrainian regions the Kremlin recently annexed.
Doom & gloom at World Bank/IMF meetings
On Monday, the World Bank and the IMF kick off their annual autumn meetings in Washington, DC. The gathering comes at a gloomy time for the global economy, battered by inflation, higher borrowing costs, and persistent supply chain disruptions. The IMF is expected to lower its 2023 growth forecast and estimates that countries accounting for at least one-third of the global economy will enter a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of GDP decline — over the next year. Why? Europe is reeling from an energy crunch linked to Russia's war in Ukraine, while China's economy is in the doldrums thanks to the fallout from zero-COVID and a property market slump. Meanwhile, the US is trying to tame inflation with shock therapy in the form of higher interest rates that might solve the problem at home but will make it harder for developing nations to pay off their debt (and a strong US dollar won't help anyone either). What can the IMF do to ease the pain? Offer financial support to countries deep in the red — if they commit to the reforms that'll allow them to pay back the money. But that’s what they’re supposed to do anyway, right?This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.