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German police forcibly dispersed a pro-Palestinian protest in Berlin on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Berlin expels protesters, French judge gets protection, US disaster aid slows to a trickle, Tesla slumps, Haiti’s anarchy continues
90: The head of a three-judge panel that barred far-right leader Marine Le Pen from running in France’s 2027 presidential election this week has been placed under police protection following death threats and the online publication of her home address. A poll published Monday found that more than half of French respondents say Le Pen got a fair trial, while nearly 90% of her National Rally supporters say the court treated her more harshly than other politicians.
2 million: In 2023, Washington sent 225 US Agency for International Development workers and $185 million to Turkey and Syria for relief and recovery efforts following a devastating earthquake. President Donald Trump’s adviser Elon Musk is currently finalizing plans to shut down the USAID, and the US State Department announced on Monday that a team of three people and a donation of $2 million to humanitarian organizations working in Myanmar are headed for the site of a 7.7 magnitude quake last Friday.
13: Tesla, the electric vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, reported Wednesday that its global sales for the first three months of 2025 fell 13% from the same period last year. Musk’s controversial role in Donald Trump’s White House and his public advocacy for far-right parties and politicians in Europe likely contributed to the slump.
500: Haiti’s violent chaos continues. On Tuesday, gang members stormed the town of Mirebalais, 30 miles northeast of Port-au-Prince, the country’s capital, and freed about 500 prison inmates. The UN says that gang violence killed more than 5,600 people in Haiti last year.
Will Marine Le Pen's conviction really keep her out of French politics?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Turning to France where Marine Le Pen, who has long been the leader of the National Front, now renamed National Rally Party, and principal contender her party to win French elections in 2027, which would be an absolute turning point in French elections, as meaningful for France as Trump's second win in 2024 in the United States, has been found guilty in a criminal court in France of embezzlement charges up to $500,000 directly and millions of dollars in terms of mishandling the way European funds were being used for staffers, including her sister and her best friend and a bodyguard. Not a political case at all, actually just a criminal court. Nobody arguing that the judge is particularly politicized here. And while two of the years of the jail term's suspended, the first two years, she has to wear an ankle bracelet. So we'll probably get a video of that real soon. I'm sure it'll be fashionable, since it's France.
But the point is, this would prevent her from running in 2027. And that would mean that Bardella, who is number two essentially in that party, all of 29 years old, nowhere near as popular as Le Pen and would completely tank the ability of the National Rally to win, would become the candidate. It is too early to say that this ban is going to stand up. She has an appeals process. She can bring it to the French equivalent of the Supreme Court, a constitutional counsel, to answer what'll be called a priority question of whether her immediate five-year ban from politics before her appeals against the conviction can stand as valid. And there's a very good argument that has been made in the plaintiff's favor in recent cases that this would not stand. And that while her appeals are going on, she would still be eligible to run, and indeed, she'd be able to go through this appeals process through 2027.
So what now looks like and is being reported in the English language press as she's being thrown out of politics probably isn't going to stand. So in other words, Le Pen out for now. Le Pen probably back soon. And France, in 2027, a really significant, maybe watershed moment from where European politics are going to go. Because if you look at politics right now, you have Friedrich Merz, probably shortly after Easter going to be putting together his grand coalition government, very strongly pro-Europe, very centrist government. You have Meloni, who certainly has a good relationship with Trump, but nonetheless, very strongly pro-EU and very much wanting to act as a bridge to support the EU in using her relations in the United States to be effective in that regard. Macron same, and even Keir Starmer in the UK, post-Brexit, yes, but wanting to be seen as a European leader. Hence taking the lead with Macron in all of these Ukraine summits. That's for now.
But as we look forward to what politics in 2027, '28, '29 look like in Europe, we could easily see that in Germany, suddenly Alternative für Deutschland could do better. Especially if the economy is not doing well. And could force the Germans to be in a position where they would have to enter a coalition with them. In France, very much the National Rally Party and Le Pen still in contention. In the UK, the Reform Party in contention too. So the end of Trump's term for Europe and the transatlantic relationships looks radically different than the beginning of Trump's term. And today's news headlines on France are a blip, not a structural shift. Watch this space as Le Pen is still very relevant indeed. That's it from me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National party, leaves the courthouse on the day of the verdict of her trial alongside 24 other defendants over accusations of misappropriation of European Union funds, in Paris, France, on March 31, 2025.
Le Pen barred from running from office after embezzlement conviction
Oh là là! A French court on Monday found National Rally leader Marine Le Pen guilty of misappropriating European funds to her far-right party, and barred the three-time presidential candidate barred from running for office for the next five years. Le Pen has denied wrongdoing and said last November, “It’s my political death that’s being demanded.”
Les détails: French authorities accused Le Pen of hiring assistants while she was a member of the European Parliament and using them to perform party operations, even as the European Parliament was paying their wages. As well as barring her from running for office, the judge sentenced the anti-immigrant politician to four years in jail — two are suspended and the other two must be served with an electronic tag. Le Pen will speak on French TV at 8 p.m. CEST (2 p.m. EST).
Plus ça change ... Le Pen is the latest far-right politician to run into legal trouble in recent years. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of corruption, the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled last week that former President Jair Bolsonaro must stand trial over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2022 election, and US President Donald Trump was convicted last year of falsifying business records in a bid to influence the 2016 election — he escaped punishment by winning reelection.
After a third-place finish in the 2012 presidential election, Le Pen made it through to the head-to-head runoff in both 2017 and 2022 but lost to President Emmanuel Macron on both occasions. She is expected to appeal this ruling, with a retrial likely taking place just months before the 2027 election. If she is allowed to run for a fourth time, she may be in her strongest position yet.
France National Front presidential candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen addresses a political rally in Lille on Feb. 25, 2007.
Father of the French far right dies
Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose ultranationalist and conservative views enraged millions but also shaped the contemporary French political scene, died on Tuesday at 96.
Le Pen was a far-right fixture of French politics for nearly five decades as a legislator in the French and European parliaments, and as founder and leader of the National Front party, which he founded in the early 1970s.
What were his politics? A theatrical orator and a fierce opponent of immigration – he sought the “purification” of France and a return to traditional Catholic values – Le Pen’s rhetoric often veered towards xenophobia, homophobia, racism, and antisemitism. At least half a dozen times he was convicted of either inciting racial hatred or denying the Holocaust.
And yet, beginning in the 1970s, he, along with anti-tax advocate Pierre Poujade, amassed a dedicated following among a slice of the French public who resented the governing elite, struggled with economic hardship, and viewed immigration from France’s former colonies in Africa and the Middle East as a threat to their livelihoods and French culture.
Le Pen ran for the presidency five times. He never won but he came closest to the prize in 2002, when he made it to a runoff against Jacques Chirac, taking nearly 20% of the vote.
Ultimately, his more extreme rhetoric came to cap the appeal of his party. When his daughter, Marine, inherited the organization from him 15 years ago, it was something she sought to address.
“He gave her a family business,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group. “But she had to change the brand.”
While she kept the focus on limiting immigration and protecting French cultural values, she distanced herself from his antisemitic and homophobic rhetoric, expelling him from the party, and changing the name to National Rally.
The party has surged in popularity in recent years. Politics in France – as elsewhere in Europe and the US – have shifted rightward in ways that were hard to imagine even during the height of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s polarizing influence in the early 2000s.
In 2022, Marine got more than 40% of the vote in the presidential runoff against Emmanuel Macron. And last summer, National Rally won the first round of France’s snap elections outright for the first time.
Le Pen’s legacy continues to polarize French politics. Far-right TV host and former presidential candidate Eric Zemmoursaid Le Pen “was among the first to alert France to the existential threats that awaited it.” Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, meanwhile, said that “the fight against the man is over” but that “the fight against the hatred, racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism that he spread continues.” Macron, for his part, said Le Pen’s legacy “is now a matter for history to judge."French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
A 'coal is dead' placard is seen during the demonstration. Activists from Friends Of The Earth and other environmental groups gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice as the legal challenge to the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria begins.
Hard Numbers: UK buries coal, Austria’s far right surges, Le Pen faces trial, UN extends but doesn’t expand Haiti mission, Russia spends more on guns (less on butter)
142: After 142 years, the UK government closed the country’s last coal-fired power plant on Monday night. Coal power was a critical factor in the British-born Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, but it wasn’t until 1882 that the British opened the first public coal power plant. The closure is part of the government’s plan to generate 100% of Great Britain’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. Our favorite British coal story? How coal pollution changed the color of the Peppered Moths of Manchester.
29.2: Austria’s Freedom Party became the first far-right party to win an election in the country since World War II, after taking 29.2% of the vote in Sunday’s election by appealing to Austrians worried about immigration, inflation, and the Ukraine war. But it’s a familiar story in Europe these days: A far-right party takes a plurality of the vote, only to find that it lacks an obvious coalition partner to form a government. The incumbent Austrian People’s Party has said it will only work with the Freedom Party if party boss Herbert Kickl renounces any cabinet position. That’s a tough sell – Kickl says he wants to be chancellor.
9: Meanwhile, elsewhere in European right-wing news, Marine Le Pen, the former leader and top candidate of France’s National Rally party, began a nine-week trial in which she and two dozen other party officials are accused of misusing EU funds by using them to pay party staff for political work. Le Pen says the payments were legitimate. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison, fines of several million euros, and possibly being deemed ineligible to run for office. She is considered a top contender in the 2027 presidential election.
1: The UN Security council agreed unanimously on Monday to authorize the UN-backed security force in Haiti for one more year. But a US proposal to make the mission – currently a Kenya-led volunteer force – into a formal UN peacekeeping operation was blocked by Russia and China, which said the current force needs more time to find its footing. Haiti, for its part, has called for a peacekeeping operation as the Kenyan-led force struggles to subdue the powerful gangs that have taken control over vast swathes of the capital.
25: Russia will boost defense spending by 25% next year, as Vladimir Putin doubles down both on his invasion of Ukraine and on the deeper militarization of the economy at home. Social spending, meanwhile, is set to fall by nearly 20%. Heavy spending on defense has helped to insulate Russia’s economy from the effects of Western sanctions, with GDP growing 3.6% last year and forecasters predicting a similar outcome this year. How secure is Putin? Read our recent piece on the endless ends of the Russian president.French political leaders
Macron has put France’s fate in Le Pen’s hands
President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as France’s new prime minister on Sept. 5 has put an end to two months of political deadlock and disarray triggered by the Jul. 7 parliamentary election result. But with the far right’s Marine Le Pen having emerged as kingmaker in a deeply fractured parliament, the respite for Macron, Barnier, and France could prove short-lived – and costly.
Since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has had majority governments aligned with the president, majority governments opposed to the president (“cohabitations”), and – in the last two years – minority governments that have struggled to enact the president’s legislative agenda but have nonetheless had enough support in parliament to evade censure.
That era of broad stability is now over. Macron’s surprise election returned a hung National Assembly split into three-and-a-half ideological blocs. For the first time in 62 years, no party, bloc, or natural alliance won anywhere near the 289 out of 577 seats needed to govern comfortably or to survive censure. This means that any government that emerged was bound to be the most fragile in recent French history.
Following a brief Olympic truce, Macron finally launched negotiations to form a new government on Aug. 23. The left-wing New Popular Front insisted that it was entitled to elevate a little-known radical to the top job who’d reverse the president’s agenda and blow up France’s deficit, despite holding only one-third (193) of deputies in the assembly. Macron, who has the sole constitutional right to nominate the prime minister, refused.
Such a government, he argued correctly, would have zero chance of surviving immediate censure by Macron’s center (166 seats), the ex-Gaullist center right (47 seats), and Le Pen’s far right (142 seats). Outraged, the left took to the streets in force on Sept. 7, accusing Macron of “trampling democracy” and “staging a coup.” But it’s hard to argue with the president’s math.
And math is the main reason why Barnier was named to the post.
Yes, the 73-year-old former Brexit negotiator and veteran of the center right is a pragmatic dealmaker with an independent streak who would build a coalition of “national unity” from center right to center left. Barnier also promised to let Macron do his own thing on foreign affairs and defense, and he pledged to try to preserve the bulk of the president’s labor market and pension reforms. But he was far from Macron’s first choice. The two men had clashed in the past, and Macron exhausted several other options before finally nominating him.
Here’s the kicker, though: Unlike Macron’s first picks for the role, the former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the center-right president of the northern French region Xavier Bertrand, Le Pen signaled that her party would not join the left in an immediate no-confidence vote against Barnier. And without her implicit blessing, no government could hope to survive contact with the National Assembly, as the left is committed to voting down candidates from the center and right.
Le Pen’s willingness to passively tolerate Barnier’s appointment suggests that, at this moment, she believes her political interests are best served by appearing to be on the side of stability rather than chaos. Moreover, she has reportedly been promised that the new government will advance her party’s policy priorities on immigration, the cost of living, and proportional representation voting – the latter a long-standing demand of the National Rally to better its chances of winning future elections.
How far will this constructive approach go? We will get a glimpse into the limits of Le Pen’s strategy when the new government is confronted with its first and toughest test in a few weeks. Facing the prospect of a destructive fiscal crisis, Barnier and his new finance minister (whoever he picks) will have to propose some way of filling a €16 billion hole in this year’s budget and introduce a deficit-cutting draft budget for 2025 by Oct. 1 to prevent punishment by the European Commission and financial markets. Both the amended 2024 budget and the draft 2025 budget will require far-right votes to pass the National Assembly.
Le Pen will then face an uncomfortable but clear choice. If she supports (or acquiesces to) draconian spending cuts, she won’t face an internal revolt, but she’ll be accused by the left and even some on the right of being a tool of the establishment. But if she precipitates the government’s collapse only weeks into her newfound kingmaker role, she’ll be blamed for plunging France into an unprecedented political and economic crisis. She will also potentially spoil her best chance to influence the country’s direction, legitimize the National Rally, and win the presidency in her fourth attempt in 2027. On balance, Le Pen will probably go the “responsible” way in this instance, choosing to edge Barnier’s government toward her preferred policies while keeping her veto powder dry for future legislative priorities.
And that is precisely the problem for Macron and Barnier. Even if they manage to steer France out of this budget crisis, Le Pen’s calculus could change at any moment – and it will be within her power to bring down the government whenever she pleases. All she has to do is add her party’s 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the four-party left alliance – which is furious at Macron and will undoubtedly introduce, not to mention support, countless censure motions – to produce many more votes than the 289 needed for a majority.
Macron’s shock election has placed the fate of France’s fragile new government in the hands of his archrival. Quite the failure for a leader who had made it his life’s mission to consign Le Penism to the dustbin of history. Whether or not she ends up succeeding him in 2027, Le Pen has never been closer to the levers of power than she is today.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks with then-EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier in February 2019.
France’s new PM: Barnier gets the job, but Le Pen holds the cards
Barnier’s biggest job will be to reassure Brussels and investors that he can lead France out of the political and fiscal crisis that has plagued the country for months. In particular, he’ll have to fill a big shortfall in this year’s budget and pass a deficit-cutting budget for 2025. To help with this tall task, he’ll try to form a national unity government that includes influential politicians from the center-left, Macron’s centrist bloc, and the center-right.
But, as Eurasia Group’s lead Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman warns, Barnier doesn’t begin from a position of political strength. He represents his country’s center-right, which won just 47 of the 577 deputies in the new National Assembly. “The key figure for Barnier’s survival will be the far right’s Marine Le Pen," Rahman says. Given the math, and the eagerness of the far left to push Barnier out, “Le Pen has the power to bring down the Barnier government whenever she chooses."