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Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks past guards at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, on Jan. 9, 2025.
Who is Joseph Aoun, the new president of Lebanon?
For the first time in two years, Lebanon has a president. It took two rounds of voting, but in the end, the country’s parliament tapped army chief Joseph Aoun.
Who is he? The 60-year-old career soldier has headed the army since 2017. He shrewdly kept his troops out of the recent and devastating 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah, the country’s most powerful armed group.
Aoun is a Maronite Christian, a requirement for the presidency in the delicate power-sharing arrangement between Lebanon’s Christian, Sunni, and Shia communities.
Among the candidates vying for the job, Aoun enjoyed strong support from the US and from Saudi Arabia, two key external power brokers.
His selection suggests Hezbollah, badly weakened by the war with Israel and unable to win support for its own preferred candidate, has lost some of its clout.
A tough job. With Lebanon mired in the worst economic crisis in its history, Aoun must name a prime minister capable of carrying out the difficult reforms that are necessary to unlock funding from external donors and creditors. He must also oversee and work to extend the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which expires on Jan. 27.
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025.
Lebanon tries, yet again, to elect a president
Lebanon’s fractious parliament will try on Thursday to do something it has failed at a dozen times over the past two years: elect a president.
How it works: In Lebanon, parliament chooses the president. And by power-sharing tradition, the post is held by a Christian – the Prime Minister is Sunni, and the speaker of parliament is Shia.
The leading candidates: Army commander Joseph Aoun, former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, and state security boss Elias al-Baysari.
The backdrop: recent years have been brutal for Lebanon, crippled by economic crisis and ravaged by Israel’s pummeling of Hezbollah, long the most powerful military and political force in the country. The collapse of the meddlesome Assad regime in Syria adds to the sense of both uncertainty and possibility.
“The election provides a good opportunity to gauge Hezbollah’s power,” says Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a region-focused consultancy. The group has repeatedly failed to get its own candidates into the post but could still block figures it doesn’t like.
The stakes: Lebanon badly needs foreign support to rebuild. But the US and other key foreign donors have conditioned aid on the election of a president and the formation of a stable government to replace the rickety caretaker committee that is currently in power. In addition, Sabra says, that would boost chances of renewing the 60-day Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which expires on Jan. 26.
After twelve failed attempts, Lebanon really needs a baker’s dozen to be the charm.
Israeli strikes put ancient Roman ruins of Baalbek at risk
Israeli airstrikes targeting Baalbek, Lebanon, threaten some of the best-preserved ancient Roman ruins anywhere in the world. The temples of Bacchus and Jupiter, which are designated UNESCO World Heritage sites, have stood in Baalbek for over two millennia. The city is located in a region of eastern Lebanon dominated by Hezbollah, so it's become a critical target amid Israel’s offensive.
In November, an airstrike hit a parking lot just meters from the temples, destroying other buildings on the site and covering the ruins in dust and debris. Archaeological experts worry that if the tentative ceasefire in Lebanon doesn’t hold, an important piece of the world’s cultural heritage is at risk of disappearing completely. Fin DePencier was on the ground in Baalbek, Lebanon for GZERO Reports to survey the damage and hear from locals, who see the site as a source of pride in a country torn apart by sectarian division.
“The owner of these sites is not Lebanon,” says local tour guide Fahmi Sharif, “but all humanity”
Watch full episode: Syria after Assad.
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Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024.
Israeli cabinet set to vote on Lebanon cease-fire deal
There are growing signs that a truce between Israel and Hezbollah – which the US has been pushing hard for – could be imminent. The Israeli cabinet is reportedly set to vote on a cease-fire deal Tuesday, and a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled it’s likely to be accepted.
The deal would involve a 60-day halt to fighting to pave the way for a lasting truce, during which Israeli troops would withdraw from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah would move heavy weapons north of the Litani River, roughly 18 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. The area would then be policed by Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers, with a five-country committee — including the US — set to keep an eye on compliance with the terms of the truce.
We’ll be watching for more on the deal — and whether it gets across the finish line as both sides in the fight continue to trade fire. And regardless of whether an agreement is reached, the war in Gaza is raging on with no end in sight. The Gaza conflict fueled the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which began after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on the Jewish state last year, and has stoked tensions across the region.