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US pushes for Middle East cease-fire ahead of Election Day
With exactly two weeks before Election Day in the US, the Biden administration is pushing for cease-fires in Israel’s wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut on Monday as part of this effort. Hochstein said that both sides “simply committing” to UN resolution 1701, a peace agreement that followed the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, “is not enough” and called for a formula “that brings an end to this conflict once and for all.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is en route to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday as part of a renewed push for a Gaza cease-fire.
While achieving a cease-fire on either front could potentially boost Kamala Harris’s campaign, the likelihood of this happening before Nov. 5 appears slim. The US and other international negotiators have pushed for a cease-fire for months, without luck.
Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend, and the region is still bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can make any progress, but recent history suggests it will be an uphill battle.
A global leadership void and ongoing wars
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I am here in Tokyo, Japan. Just got back from Beijing. Being in this part of the world has me thinking a little bit about the state of our world and leadership, or should I say, the lack thereof. Those of you following me know I talk about a G-zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, a place where we lack global leadership, and that has been so clear, thinking about the wars that continue, between Israel and Palestine, and now Lebanon, and more broadly in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, and increasingly NATO in Europe.
I think about the fact that all over the world, everyone wants these wars to be over. They're causing enormous amounts of suffering, displacement of human beings, massive war crimes, but they persist. It's worth thinking about what that means in terms of leadership because when we talk about the Middle East, and Israel-Palestine in particular, the United States is the most powerful ally of Israel, overwhelmingly in terms of its political and diplomatic support, its economic support, technological support, its military aid and training and intelligence. And yet, over the last year, the United States has had virtually no influence in the ability to contain, constrain, or end this war, irrespective of all the suffering.
You can complain about the United States on that with good reason, but then you look at Russia-Ukraine, and you see that over the last three years, China's been, by far, the most powerful friend and supporter of Russia, massive amounts of trade only expanding and dual-use technologies and diplomatic support. Yet, despite that, China has been unwilling to use any influence on Russia to try to bring the war to the end.
Now, to be clear, both the United States and China say all the right things. In Beijing, I was hearing from the leaders that they're friends with the Ukrainians and they maintain stable relations, and of course they want the war over, and they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. And of course, the Americans support a two-state solution for the Palestinians and want to ensure that they get humanitarian aid and want to see a ceasefire happen, but I mean, the revealed preferences of both of these countries is their willingness to do anything about it is virtually zero. The Chinese don't care about the Ukrainians ultimately. That's what we're learning over the last few years. The Americans don't care about the Palestinians ultimately. That's what we've learned over the last year.
Absent leadership from the two most powerful countries in the world, where do you think we're going to get geopolitically? The answer is, to a much more dangerous place. That's the concern. I don't see that changing, particularly whether we have a Harris or a Trump presidency. I don't see that changing whether we have a Xi or a Xi presidency in China. It's not like they're making any real choices going forward. But look, maybe I'll be surprised. And certainly, it would be nice if no matter who wins, this was a topic of conversation between the Americans and the Chinese. That, "Hey, China. If you'd be willing to do a little bit more with Russia, we'd be willing to do a little bit more with Israel." I mean, frankly, at the end of the day, that's the kind of horse-trading I think we could really use diplomatically. Right now, that's a conversation that hasn't happened yet, but maybe it will.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
Israel kills Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza
Ever since 1,200 Israelis were brutally murdered by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, the Jewish state has been on the hunt for the mastermind of the attack — the terrorist group’s leader, Yahya Sinwar.On Thursday,Israel confirmed that it had killed Sinwar in Gaza, reportedly with Israeli tank fire on a building where soldiers had picked up suspicious movement. His dental and fingerprint impressions match Israeli records.
Sinwar, one of Israel’s top targets, was previously believed to be deep underground surrounded by hostage human shields, so it came as a surprise that he had been killed practically in the open.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Sinwar’s death but stopped short of declaring total victory, saying, “Today, evil took a heavy blow — the mission ahead of us is still unfinished.”
He and US President Joe Biden spoke Thursday, and Biden urged Netanyahu to use the moment to bring hostages home and “bring the war to a close." Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris both praised the successful killing of Sinwar, as did leaders from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.
Will the war in Gaza wind down? Unlikely, though Netanyahu did offer to allow the terrorists holding the remaining Israeli hostages from Oct. 7 to leave if they laid down their arms and returned the prisoners. Netanyahu on Thursday told Israelis, "The war, my dear ones, is not yet over." Meanwhile, Israel’s operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which Netanyahu has promised to continue until Israeli civilians can safely return to areas near the northern border, remains ongoing.
Who will replace Sinwar? Hamas’ succession plans are opaque, but a few key figures stand out. Khaled Mashaal was Hamas’ political leader between 1996 and 2017 and remains influential, but his opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has stressed his relationship with sponsors in Tehran. Probably the best option from Washington’s perspective is Khalil al-Hayya, who has led cease-fire negotiations for Hamas and is seen as more pliable than Sinwar. On the other hand, if Sinwar’s brother Mohammed Sinwar wins the power struggle, his hardline tendencies would likely undermine progress at the negotiating table.
Hard Numbers: A quarter of Lebanon under Israeli evacuation orders, Milton costs insurers big, The EU wants its money back, Early voting in Georgia breaks records
25: Over 25% of Lebanon is facing Israeli evacuation orders, which were expanded to include 20 villages on Tuesday. The sprawling evacuation orders come as Israel expands its bombing campaign in the south and east of Lebanon, and in the suburbs of Beirut. Over the past three weeks, 1.2 million people have already fled from their homes, with more than 400,000 children in Lebanon displaced, according to the UN children’s agency.
36 billion: After Hurricane Milton tore through central Florida last week, risk modelers predicted that it would lead to about $36 billion in insurance payouts, well above the $6 billion of claims they estimate Hurricane Helene caused last month. The cost of increasingly damaging storms has experts fearing that more insurance firms will exit the region, further driving up premiums.
163 million: It is looking certain that the EU will be unable to claw back any of the $163 million it paid to Tunisia in a controversial migration deal. Brussels paid Tunis to crack down on migrants leaving its shores bound for Europe, but the money is being increasingly linked to human rights violations – including allegations that sums went to security forces who raped migrant women.
305,900: On Tuesday, the first day of early voting in Georgia, the southern US state saw record turnout, with 305,900 votes. That’s more than twice the number of first-day early voters in 2020, when the state’s previous record was set with 136,000 votes cast on the first day.
Israel’s attacks on UN peacekeepers draw international condemnation
Israel and the UN’s historically thorny relationship has become even more contentious amid the escalating fight between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant and political group in Lebanon.
The UN says that Israeli forces have fired on their peacekeepers in southern Lebanon several times in recent days and that at least five peacekeepers have been injured in the process.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged UNIFIL, the UN’s peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, to leave the area and get out of “harm’s way.” Netanyahu denies that Israel has deliberately targeted peacekeepers. UNIFIL, which is mandated to be in southern Lebanon by the UN Security Council, refuses to leave. Meanwhile, the UN on Sunday said that the Israeli military forcibly entered one of its positions in southern Lebanon, which Israel denies.
Tough gig. UNIFIL — the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — was first established in 1978 to oversee Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon following an invasion that same year. It’s made up of 10,000 personnel from 50 countries and patrols an area known as the Blue Line — a UN-designated line separating Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
UNIFIL is charged with maintaining peace and security along the border between Israel and Lebanon, which is no easy task given the volatile history of the region. A 2006 UN resolution, tied to an Israel-Hezbollah war that year, expanded UNIFIL’s mission and called on it to “ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind.”
The Israeli government and other critics of UNIFIL say it’s ineffective and hasn’t done a good enough job reporting on Hezbollah’s activities and build-up in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has repeatedly fired on Israel from the area since last October amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, in a tit-for-tat that ultimately spiraled into the recent Israeli invasion of Lebanon atop escalating airstrikes across the country.
Israel’s criticism of UNIFIL does not appear to be landing with much of the international community, which is condemning the Jewish state for firing on peacekeepers.
UN chief António Guterres — who Israel recently declared persona non grata — has warned that attacks on peacekeepers could constitute war crimes, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to stop firing on peacekeepers.
The UK, France, Germany, and Italy on Monday condemned “all threats to UNIFIL’s security,” and called for IDF attacks on peacekeepers to stop “immediately.” Similarly, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said attacking UN troops is “completely unacceptable.”
We’ll be watching to see if Israel listens and adjusts course in Lebanon.
US deploys anti-missile system to Israel, UN accuses Israel of damaging base
The Biden administration is sending an anti-ballistic missile system to Israel to bolster the Jewish state’s defenses against potential Iranian attacks and underscore Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s defense, the Pentagon said Sunday. A deployment of 100 US troops will man the Thaad system.
The US has deployed Thaad systems to Israel twice before, once in 2019 and after the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023 — but the war has expanded, and the risks of escalation with US troops in the theater are higher.
Saber-rattling: The deployment follows discussions between American and Israeli officials over Israel’s plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile strike on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that Israel’s strike would be “deadly, precise, and surprising,” but Washington has advised against the targeting of Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites. On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiwarned on X that while Iran wants peace, “we have no red lines in defending our people and interests.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s fights with Hezbollah and Hamas continue. On Sunday, a Hezbollah drone strike in the Israeli city of Binyamina near Haifa killed four soldiers and injured at least 60 people, according to Israeli rescue services. Israel also continued to strike Hamas in northern Gaza, killing at least 20 on Sunday. The UN says no food aid has been delivered since the beginning of October.
And then in Lebanon … On Sunday morning IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that the United Nations Interim Force withdraw from southern Lebanon, claiming its forces were being used as “hostages” by Hezbollah.
According to the UN, two Israeli tanks forcibly entered a UNIFIL peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday. The tanks left but reportedly fired shells nearby that sickened some of the base personnel. Israeldisputes this and maintains that Hezbollah terrorists fired anti-tank missiles at its troops close to a UNIFIL post and that an Israeli tank evacuating two dozen casualties came under fire and backed into the UNIFIL post.
Nevertheless, Israel was denounced by the UN as wellas by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who phoned Netanyahu on Sunday about the “unacceptable” incident. Italy, usually a staunch supporter of Israel, is the largest contributor to UNIFIL with 1,000 troops.
We’re watching how other UNIFIL countries respond and what the US deployment means for further escalation in the region.
Israeli cabinet meets to decide on Iran response
Israel’s cabinet met Thursday night to debate and vote on a response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile barrage, but the results have not been made public. Iran’s attack on the Jewish state last week came in response to Israel killing high-level members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant previously said retaliation would be “deadly, precise and, above all, surprising” and the cabinet was expected to authorize a response at the discretion of Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The meeting came just ahead of Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement and holiest day of the year in Judaism.
As Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan told GZERO earlier this week, targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure would hurt its economy. We’re watching for escalation, as the current tit for tat began with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli forces carried out the deadliest strikes on Beirut yet, with at least 22 killed in one of the world’s oldest cities. Israeli soldiers also injured an unknown number of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, where at least three UN posts came under fire.Israel says presumed successor to Nasrallah has been killed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, had died in an airstrike in Beirut, but it has not been confirmed by Hezbollah. News of the purported assassination came the same day that the Israeli military deployed the 146th Division “Ha-Mapatz” to its invasion of southern Lebanon, where it joined three other divisions in attempting to push Hezbollah back from the border area.
Netanyahu reiterated his priority of enabling 60,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the North to return home. He also warned that Lebanon faces “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza” if the Lebanese people do not “free” themselves of Hezbollah. Israel has urged Lebanese civilians to flee north of the Awali River, about 15 miles north of the border.
The number of troops committed — full-strength Israeli divisions number 10,000 - 15,000 soldiers, though entire divisions are not always deployed simultaneously — tells Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan that Israel is determined to completely scour out a buffer zone, some of which they may occupy.
“Whatever northern boundary they pick, they really want to destroy any Hezbollah infrastructure or potential for presence within that boundary,” he says. “I think the number of troops reflects the difficulty of the challenge and Israeli goals to absolutely dismantle any potential threat Hezbollah could use the buffer area to shell northern Israel.”