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A man comparing US Dollars with Lebanese pounds, in Beirut, Lebanon.
What We’re Watching: Digital payment lifelines for cash-strapped Lebanon, digital solutions for overcoming COVID, fintech & the war in Ukraine
Digital trade offers Lebanon a lifeline
Lebanon’s economy has imploded following decades of government mismanagement. Its currency has lost more than 90% of its value against the US dollar since 2019, and the banking sector is in shambles. When foreign capital dried up, the government adopted strict capital controls preventing Lebanese from withdrawing dollar savings. This has led to mass demonstrations and even fake bank heists – desperate bids by some to get their hands on their own money. The International Monetary Fund has told Beirut to reform its zombie banking sector in order to unlock bailout funds – but to no avail. As a result, many have turned to digital payments. Digital wallets like Purpl and peer-to-peer money transfer apps allowing users to pay businesses directly have become a lifeline for the country’s 6.7 million people, many of whom rely on the 15-million-strong Lebanese diaspora to stay afloat. Dima Assad, a manager at Nada Debs, a Beirut-based interior design company, said her company had to switch to a payment gateway called PayTabs, based in the United Arab Emirates, when credit card payments in US dollars were blocked. What’s more, fintech offerings have been a game-changer for the 55% of people in Lebanon who don’t have access to bank accounts. Unbanked people used to line up at Western Union – and paid hefty fees – to send and receive money, but now they can use smartphones or laptops (78% have internet access) to access funds while incurring lower transaction fees. The economic situation in Lebanon remains dire, but digital trade offers a lifeline.
How COVID impacted digital trade
When the sudden appearance of a deadly novel coronavirus in early 2020 began forcing political leaders to restrict the movements of unprecedented numbers of people, it didn’t take much foresight to predict a surge in e-commerce. The move toward greater volumes of digital trade had been accelerating for years, mainly for economic and financial reasons, but the inability of businesses to welcome customers or to service the needs of other businesses pushed that historical trend into overdrive. This is a phenomenon that billions of people have experienced firsthand over the past 32 months as their work and their purchasing habits have changed. In that sense, COVID has raised expectations for long-term economic gains as pandemic-related necessities became mothers of invention.
But there are downsides we must consider. This acceleration ensures that the “creative destruction” that fuels all big macroeconomic gains – the collapse of some industries and businesses as more efficient and profitable ones take their place – has disrupted the lives and livelihoods of many more people in a shorter time frame than any economic phenomenon of the recent past.
And the digital divide, both within and among countries, may well have widened as those who have access and expertise in digital trade transition toward the future much more quickly and easily than those who don’t. The pandemic is not over, particularly for China, which has provided the primary engine for global growth over many years. We need a lot more data to understand both the positive and negative impacts of COVID on digital trade and its global impact. But these are subjects that will deserve careful study in years to come as life and commerce settle into a new normal.
e-Commerce at war
Doing business in a war zone presents, shall we say, added challenges. Mobilizations draw employees off to the front, battle lines cut across shipping routes, and overall uncertainty crimps both investment and commerce. Ukraine’s agricultural exports – its biggest export sector – in the 2022-2023 season (up to Aug. 19) were down 51.6% from the previous year, and the World Bank now predicts that its GDP will contract by a whopping 35% in 2022 (compared to a 4.5% dip for Russia’s GDP). But e-Commerce platforms can provide a new way to help local businesses reach a global audience even while the conflict rages. Last month, for example, the Ukrainian government launched an online marketplace called Made with Bravery that enables Ukrainian artisans and craftspeople to sell their goods around the world. The platform is available only to businesses based in Ukraine, and it donates 5% of all revenues to a foundation that is helping to rebuild parts of the country hit hard by the fighting. (Full disclosure: Made with Bravery was launched in partnership with our sponsor, Visa.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
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From left to right, Lega leader Matteo Salvini, Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi, and Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni during a campaign rally in Rome.
What We're Watching: Italian election, Chinese anti-corruption drive, Lebanese bank shutdown
Italy votes!
Italians head to the polls on Sunday and are likely to elect Italy’s first far-right leader since World War II. Giorgia Meloni, 47, who heads the Brothers of Italy Party (which has neofascist roots) is slated to become Italy’s next PM. Polls indicate Brothers will win about a quarter of the vote, while her three-party coalition, including Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, is projected to secure around 45%. Four years ago, Brothers – established in 2012 – reaped just 4% of the vote, but it has benefited recently from the left’s implosion as well as Meloni’s refusal to back the centrist Draghi government, which collapsed this summer, making her the most formidable opposition figure (Salvini and Berlusconi backed Draghi). Italy has convoluted voting rules but will be voting on 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) and 200 seats in the Senate – the winning coalition needs a majority in both. Meloni aims to dilute the EU’s power over Italian affairs, though she believes Rome must preserve close ties with Brussels, and she supports EU and NATO efforts to contain Russian aggression. Read this primer to learn more about what Meloni does – and doesn’t – stand for.
Xi's war on corruption — and disloyalty
A Chinese court on Thursday gave one of Xi Jinping’s former anti-corruption top dogs a death sentence that will be commuted to life in prison after two years for ... bribery. Fu Zhenghua, a former police chief and justice minister who led multiple probes under Xi's former anti-graft czar, pleaded guilty in July to taking $16.5 million in bribes, presumably in exchange for the commutation. The plot thickens: Fu was busted amid a wider crackdown on a ring of dirty ex-cops led by Sun Lijun, who’s awaiting his own sentence for bribery. But as far as the ruling Communist Party is concerned, their most heinous crime was setting up a political faction separate to Xi’s, which is why its members are getting hefty punishments. (Juicy tidbits of their case were featured in “Zero Tolerance,” a slick state-sponsored docuseries that celebrates the success of Xi's war on graft.) The timing is interesting too: in about three weeks, the CCP is holding its 20th Party Congress, where Xi is expected to get a precedent-shattering third term as secretary-general. The party has a penchant for taking down dirty officials ahead of big dates, but going after a clique of cadres disloyal to Xi sends a clear message: don’t cross the big boss.
Unbanked Lebanon
Lebanese can’t catch a break. They’ve had their dollar savings withdrawals strictly limited since the Lebanese pound dropped in late 2019. And now, two weeks after a woman held up a bank to withdraw part of her own savings to pay for her sister's cancer treatment, inspiring copycat heists, the banks have simply shut. Citing security concerns, the country’s banking association says all banks will remain closed indefinitely. ATM services in pounds are available, but the shutdown is expected to make things even worse for the 80% of Lebanese who already struggle to pay for their daily needs with the weakened currency amid sky-high inflation. This is just the latest twist in Lebanon’s descent into economic collapse, which started three years ago. The government, meanwhile, keeps giving the International Monetary Fund the runaround on the economic reforms required to unlock a $3 billion bailout. One of the conditions is to give small depositors access to their savings.
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Supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah hold flags during an election rally in Tyre, Lebanon.
Can this election save Lebanon?
Corruption and mismanagement have become the hallmarks of Lebanese governance.
In 2019, the country’s ill-managed economy imploded thanks to a self-serving political elite, and in 2020, an explosion resulting from government negligence killed 230 people at a Beirut port. Subsequent attempts to stonewall the criminal investigation of the blast again exposed the greed and malice of those in charge.
In short, things need to change.
Voters will cast their ballots on May 15 in general elections for the first time since all hell broke loose three years ago. Is there any hope for a political turnaround, or will the country continue rolling over a cliff?
Decades of deterioration. Years of government mismanagement and corruption coupled with ongoing sectarian violence since the country’s civil war ended in 1990 have fueled low expectations and apathy amongst Lebanon’s electorate. Indeed, decades of pocket-lining by politicians, combined with successive governments racking up mountains of debt, have crashed the economy and sent standards of living into a free fall.
Since 2019, Lebanon’s currency has lost 90% of its value, and inflation now stands at an unfathomable 215%. Lebanese who have seen their savings dry up and their opportunities dwindle are increasingly disillusioned, and they lack trust in the government's ability to improve their plight. As a result, only 54% of eligible voters say they plan to vote, according to Oxfam.
Ongoing sectarian strife is part of the equation. Earlier this year, former PM Saad Hariri – son of slain Sunni PM Rafik Hariri – announced his resignation from politics, leaving a political vacuum. Many Sunni Lebanese – roughly one third of the population – don’t intend to vote.
Analysts say this could be good news for Hezbollah, the Shiite political party and militant group backed by Iran and deemed a terrorist organization by the US and EU. Led by Hassan Nasrallah, a hardliner, Hezbollah has been dubbed a state within a state, because it has vast military capabilities, provides some social provisions, and takes independent actions at home and abroad – like firing rockets into Israel – that invariably impact the Lebanese state.
Hezbollah’s coalition already holds around 55% of parliamentary seats and is hoping to pick up some Sunni votes to further consolidate power. The Saudis are clearly worried about it too: A prominent Saudi columnist reportedly called Hariri a “traitor” for backing out of the election and allowing Hezbollah to fill the void.
What’s at stake?
Much-needed dough. With 75% of the country living below the poverty line, Beirut has been engaged in ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for access to loans and aid.
Last month, the two sides reached a preliminary agreement for a $3 billion loan contingent on Lebanon implementing a series of reforms, including getting rid of bank secrecy laws that allow the central bank to withhold information from donors, and restructuring the banking sector.
Still, if the past is prologue, the political elite will likely continue dragging their feet on reforms that might be detrimental to their personal interests and wealth. Hezbollah has displayed some willingness to negotiate with the IMF, though it says it won’t agree to any austerity measures that would hurt its base, the majority of whom are poor.
While this loan is just a drop in the ocean compared to Lebanon’s crushing $70 billion debt, it would still be an important stepping stone, analysts say, toward boosting investor confidence.
Who's watching?
Surely, the Gulf states, which are locked in a semi-rapprochement with Beirut after a rocky 18 months. The Saudis and Emirates once flooded Lebanon with cash but withdrew as Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – grip on power tightened. Things got worse last year after a Lebanese minister criticized Riyadh’s onslaught in Yemen, prompting the Saudis to block all Lebanese imports.
The Saudis, for their part, have shown a willingness to patch things up. But it’s hard to imagine that the two states will get much cozier if Hezbollah’s power continues to grow.
The status quo presents big problems for Washington. Many members of Lebanon’s political class, who Washington partners with to try and cut off terrorist financing, are also obstructing the reform efforts needed for unlocking international aid.
Inside Lebanon, the marriage of convenience continues: Lebanon’s political elite siphon money, and Hezbollah seem to get carte blanche to fire rockets at Israel and wage Tehran’s regional war. The people of Lebanon, meanwhile, continue to suffer.
Lebanon is on fire. Where's the fire brigade?
It's been 365 days since twin blasts at a Beirut port decimated Lebanon's capital. More than 200 people were killed and some 7,000 were injured, yet accountability has been scarce. There is ample evidence that multiple Lebanese officials knew that ammonium nitrate was being improperly stored at the port. Four high-ranking politicians, including former PM Hassan Diab, have been charged by a Lebanese judge, but they all refuse to cooperate with the ongoing investigation.
Since then, Lebanon's already-dire economic and financial crises have only intensified. The Lebanese pound, the national currency, has plummeted, losing 90 percent of its value since 2019, when the country's economic crisis erupted. And more than 50 percent of the population is now living below the poverty line.
Some locals say Lebanon has become "unlivable" in recent months. So why isn't the country — now approaching failed-state status — getting the help it needs?
Corruption and dysfunction. International donors resent the corruption and cronyism that have long plagued Lebanon's political class and impeded meaningful political reform. And they have little reason to expect change. Despite international outrage in the aftermath of last year's explosion, Lebanese lawmakers have refused to lift immunity from prosecution for several former ministers wanted for questioning, stonewalling the state's investigation.
Even before the blasts, Lebanon's byzantine sectarian power-sharing system had brought the government to a standstill, while years of pocket-lining by politicians had crashed the economy and sent standards of living into free fall.
For those at the top, there has been little incentive to implement reforms: industry "entrepreneurs" have benefited from lack of government regulation and services — often giving generous kickbacks to politicians for preserving the status quo. Lebanon's sketchy electricity industry, which relies on so-called "generator mafias" with ties to the political elite, is a case in point.
Foreign aid distribution is politicized. Last summer, Emmanuel Macron, president of France, Lebanon's former colonial power, jetted into Beirut twice within a few weeks and vowed to help usher in the reforms needed for Lebanon's political and economic "rebirth." But he has also said that unlocking international aid would be contingent on Lebanon instituting some basic reforms, like forming a new government and rooting out corruption. So far, that's been a bust: just weeks ago, the interim PM Said Hariri threw in the towel after failing to find common ground with President Michel Aoun.
"Real reforms require the political class, as well as Hezbollah, to give up too much of the power, money and influence they accumulated over years and they're not ready to do that," Kim Ghattas , author of Black Wave and contributing writer at the Atlantic, told GZERO Media. "The real work and the real opportunity for change is next year, when Lebanon will have legislative, municipal and presidential elections."
Macron has made no secret of the fact that he's fed up with Lebanon's untrustworthy elite. Still, after last summer's aid-pledging conference covered just 5 percent of the damages, he will hold a second fundraising event this week.
International financial heavyweights are frustrated. Bailout talks between Beirut and the International Monetary Fund have also reached an impasse. Before the port explosion, Lebanon's central bank had refused to accept the IMF's assessment that it had incurred losses of $49 billion, and the IMF has grown frustrated at the lack of progress on meaningful political reforms its assistance is tied to. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved loans to help struggling families, but some analysts say that the loan structure shortchanges needy Lebanese while benefiting the political elite.
"For years, the international community helped feed corruption by pouring aid into Lebanon to support stability but without ever inquiring about where the money went," Ghattas said. Looking ahead, "the US and France and their allies should continue to stress the need for justice and accountability, not only for the port blast but also for the country's economic crash. Without accountability there is no stability, anywhere."
Regional players have their own agenda. To make matters worse for Lebanon, wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pulled back on doling out funds in recent years. In 2016, Riyadh scrapped a total $4 billion in aid to Lebanon's military and police, citing Iran's heavy hand in the country's affairs. The Saudis and Emiratis don't want the money going to Iran-backed Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics, and they want to see Iran and its proxy take the blame for Lebanon's popular unrest.
So why should outsiders bail out chronically unstable Lebanon? There is, of course, the moral dimension of human suffering. For those who care about their fellow human beings, that's incentive enough.
But there's also the regional implications: instability begets instability, and Lebanon lives in an unstable neighborhood. The spillover effects of a more chaotic Lebanon won't help a region still coping with large numbers of refugees and the continuing fallout from civil wars in Syria and Yemen, and potential instability elsewhere.
Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the deteriorating human rights situation in Belarus, Delta variant woes, and Lebanon one year after the Beirut blast.
An Olympian refuses to return home to Belarus and an anti-Lukashenko activist has been found dead in Ukraine. What's going on?
Yeah. That anti-Lukashenko activist was found hanged in a park in Kiev. Once again, not exactly likely a suicide. These anti-Lukashenko activists have a way of turning up injured or dead. It's a horrible regime. Their friends are limited largely to the Russians. That's about it. The economic pressure is growing from Europe, from the United States, very coordinated. But the problem is a very hard to do much to Lukashenko when he has not only support of his military, but also the support of most of the workers in the country who aren't prepared to strike because they want to ensure they still have jobs. I expect this is going to continue, but human rights abuses are stacking up. It is nice to see that the Americans and the Europeans are coordinating policy as well as they have been.
How has Delta variant added to the COVAX woes?
Well, we've seen a lot more cases. I mean Florida, for example, right now, highest level of cases since this pandemic has started. Hospitalizations too. But not deaths. Death numbers across the country are still comparatively very low. That's also true in Europe. Why is that? That's because even though vaccines overall are not where they need to be in the United States, the people that are most vulnerable to dying, the seriously elderly, those with pre-existing conditions are also among the most likely, sensibly, to get vaccines. And so it was a consequence. Death numbers are still mercifully comparatively low, and I suspect they're going to stay low. Having said that, we don't know much about long COVID. We do know about 50% of the people that get symptoms have those symptoms persist. The healthcare costs of that, the psychological costs of that, the reality of the quality of life, it's deteriorating for a much longer period of time. That's what we worry about the most. The thing I'm most worried about globally is China, where they're locking down big cities in part because they have no tolerance for the pandemic to grow in China. But also because their vaccines really don't work against Delta variant. That could slow down the second largest economy in the world. Watch that over the next few months.
A year after the Beirut blast, what has changed in Lebanon? One of the biggest non-nuclear blasts in global history.
Answer is very little has changed. The investigation is going nowhere. One of the few things that various factions around the government can agree with is that they don't want to be tried for corruption by independent investigators so they've been slow rolling it. Economic collapse, not much international support. Emmanuel Macron, you'll remember the French president, went down said we're going to help these people. There's been very little international aid and no new conference trying to raise that support for Lebanon. They are close to becoming a failed state and maybe not a surprise given how bad both COVID and the financial crisis has hit a country that was already among the most poorly governed in the region and the world.
The Graphic Truth: Salad crisis — Lebanon's food prices soar
Lebanon's economic implosion and currency crisis have caused food prices to surge. Lebanon imports around 80 percent of the food it consumes, and so the sharp depreciation of the lira vs the US dollar has made some staples five times more expensive than when the economic crisis first hit in October 2019. This year's Ramadan was very painful for many Lebanese, as the cost of an Iftar meal — which Muslims break their fast with each day — has increased a whopping 300 percent in just two years. We take a look at how food prices have risen as a result of the plunging value of Lebanon's currency over the last 15 months.
What We're Watching: Hariri throws in the towel, China calls for Pakistan blast probe, Poland hits EU over judiciary
Lebanon's PM-designate resigns: Things continue to deteriorate in crisis-ridden Lebanon. On Thursday, veteran politician and prime minister-designate Saad Hariri resigned eight months after being tapped to form a technocratic government after a series of crises and disasters, chief among them the devastating explosion at a Beirut port last August. Lebanon's Hezbollah-aligned President Michel Aoun refused to accept any of Hariri's proposals, because he said they did not reflect the country's sectarian power-sharing requirements. But Hariri pushed back, saying that Aoun wanted too many government spots for his allies. The Lebanese pound dipped to a new low after Hariri called it quits Thursday, reaching 21,000 to the US dollar. It's unclear who will step in now to form a government, a prerequisite to releasing billions of dollars in aid from former colonizer France and others. Meanwhile, the EU has said it'll impose sanctions on Lebanese officials if progress remains static.
China wants answers from Pakistan: China is putting pressure on Pakistan to investigate this week's explosion on a bus in the remote northern Kohistan region that killed 13 people — among them nine Chinese workers employed at an infrastructure project financed by China's Belt and Road Initiative. The Pakistanis initially blamed the blast on a gas leak, but a preliminary probe has found traces of explosives. China is a close ally and has major investments in Pakistan, including a $65 billion economic corridor linking China's northwestern Xinjiang region to Gwadar port in southern Pakistan. In recent years, Pakistani militants — especially separatists from Balochistan — have regularly targeted Chinese infrastructure investments, but so far Beijing has not pulled the plug. For their part, the Pakistanis need Chinese cash to build infrastructure — even if these projects are very unpopular and could make Pakistan fall into China's debt trap. Indeed, Beijing has flushed Islamabad with cash in recent years, and it's paying off: PM Khan now says China has been one of Pakistan's most reliable friends in times of need.
Poland, EU tussle over rule of law: Poland's constitutional court has ruled that the European Union can't tell the country how to run its judiciary. It's the latest episode in a long-running dispute between Warsaw and Brussels over sweeping judicial reforms by Poland's conservative President Andrzej Duda and his ruling Law and Justice party. Since coming to office in 2015, the populist Duda has given broad powers to the supreme court's disciplinary chamber, which the EU wants to dissolve because it punishes and purges Polish judges critical of the government. Brussels says the reforms undermine judicial independence in Poland, while Warsaw argues that the overhaul is necessary to fix an inefficient judiciary. The Polish government has also cracked down on LGBTQ rights in recent years, creating yet more friction with the EU. The EU has spent years fighting member states Hungary and Poland — both of which are led by "illiberal" populists — over rule of law and human rights issues. Last year, Brussels tried to make disbursement of the bloc's pandemic relief fund contingent on all member states respecting EU rule-of-law norms. But the EU backed off after the Hungarians and the Poles threatened to block the EU budget.
What We're Watching: Bolsonaro criminal probe, Lebanon's "social explosion," Zuma defies court, Putin's definition of champagne
Bolsonaro probe heats up: A smattering of protests broke out in cities across Brazil this weekend after the Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for a criminal probe into President Jair Bolsonaro for "dereliction of duty" linked to procurement of COVID vaccines. What's this all about? A recent congressional inquiry into Bolsonaro's broad handling of the COVID crisis revealed that he knew — and failed to report to authorities — a shady deal negotiated by his health ministry to buy jabs from a private Indian pharmaceutical company for more than 10 times the price originally quoted. The allegations have sparked fresh calls to impeach Bolsonaro, but conviction would require support from two-thirds of the lower house of Congress, an unlikely scenario given Bolsonaro's broad web of alliances in parliament. Still, the unfolding political drama is indeed having an impact on the street cred of the populist president, who rose to power on an anti-establishment, anti-corruption platform: Bolsonaro's net approval rating now hovers at -23 percent. Brazilians, who have been pummeled by the COVID crisis, will surely be watching the probe very closely ahead of next year's presidential vote. The timing is not great for Bolsonaro, whose nemesis, leftwing former president Lula, is gaining steam in the polls.
Lebanon's impending "social explosion:'' Lebanon's financial and social crises have been deepening for months, but Prime Minister Hassan Diab recently warned that a "social explosion" is imminent. Gas and electricity shortages have intensified, prompting nationwide protests. Recent reports detail Lebanese lining up for hours to fill up their vehicles, with some even pushing their cars because of the dire fuel scarcity situation. For months, Lebanon's fractious transitional government has passed ad hoc measures to try and address the worsening economic crisis: Parliament recently passed a $556 million food ration program to help Lebanese buy basic goods (half of Lebanese now live below the poverty line) but it's unclear how the cash-strapped state will pay for it. As we've written before, the current mess is a direct result of a severe economic crisis that started in late 2019 as a result of decades of corruption and mismanagement. It was then turbocharged by the fallout from the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, which left Lebanon without a functioning government. Last month, the World Bank said that Lebanon's economic crisis ranks among the world's most severe since the mid-1800s.
Zuma defies court — again: Jacob Zuma, South Africa's defiant former president, has refused to turn himself in to authorities after the country's top court sentenced him to 15-months in prison for failing to appear at an inquiry into corruption that occurred during his time in office. Zuma, who is 79, has launched several court appeals in recent days, saying that sentencing him to jail during a global pandemic is the same as "sentencing me to death." A stalwart of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party and close confidante of Nelson Mandela, Zuma served as president for nine years until 2018, when he was forced to resign amid graft allegations. But he retains an extremely loyal following: in recent days, hundreds of supporters formed a "human shield" outside his home, vowing to protect Zuma if police showed up to arrest him. Zuma, for his part, told the crowd that "a messy confrontation would've ensued if police dared to arrest me." The standoff is exacerbating tensions within the already-divided ANC, making life hard for Zuma's successor and former ally, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has pledged to bring "ethics into politics."
What We're Ignoring:
Putin's definition of champagne: Fresh tensions are bubbling between Moscow and Europe, after Vladimir Putin signed a law that says only Russian producers of fizzy white wine can use the term "champagne" on their products in Russia. As anyone who's spent (and can remember) a new year's celebration with Russians knows, the country has long produced its own "Sovyetskoye Shampanskoye" (Soviet Champagne), a glorious, festive, splitting headache in a bottle. Much of the stuff is made in southern Russia, as well as in Crimea, the peninsula of Ukraine which Moscow annexed in 2014 and is trying to prop up as best it can now. Meanwhile, the makers of actual champagne are popping mad now, with market leader Moët Hennessy pledging to halt all exports to Russia until a solution can be found. The EU is making its usual "why I oughta!" strong statements, but will flutes go empty in Russia now? The country imports about 50 million liters of sparkling wine annually, of which about 13 percent is from the Champagne region of France, according toDrinks Business, a trade publication.