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Supporters of the Christian Lebanese Forces party react as votes are being counted in Lebanon's parliamentary election.
What We're Watching: Lebanon's future, Russian dissent, Latin Americans ditch US summit
What Hezbollah’s loss means for Lebanon
Days after Lebanese voters went to the polls for the first time since the economy imploded three years ago, Hezbollah – Iran-backed militants dubbed a terrorist group by the US – has lost its parliamentary majority. Its coalition, which includes Amal, another Shia party, and the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian bloc, won 61 seats, down from 71. Reformist parties that emerged amid mass protests over economic inequality and corruption in recent years reaped about 10% of seats. The Saudi-allied Lebanese Forces also gained new seats, suggesting that many Lebanese voters support warmer ties with Riyadh in hopes it can help ease their economic woes. Still, only 41% of eligible voters turned up, reflecting widespread apathy and disdain for the political elite, who have enriched themselves for decades while large swaths of the population descended into poverty. The election was notably plagued by allegations of voter fraud. Things will get thorny this fall when President Michael Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, finishes his term. The presidency is a powerful post in Lebanon, charged with appointing the PM and leading the military. Hezbollah will push hard for a replacement who will safeguard their – and Iran’s – regional interests, likely impeding progress on political and economic reforms needed to unlock foreign loans.
Dangerous dissent rises in Russia
Those who oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have watched for signs of anger or dissatisfaction from inside Russia. There have been a few. (Remember the gutsy journalist who interrupted a live TV news broadcast with an antiwar placard?) There hasn’t been much more of that, and a strong response from law enforcement has kept protests contained. In recent days, we have seen signs of discontent challenging the official Kremlin line that Russia’s “special military operation” is advancing according to plan. But the message is not that the war is immoral and self-destructive; it’s that it must be waged more successfully. Pro-Russian military bloggers are questioning the competence of Russian strategists and officers. One military analyst made international news by warning during a live broadcast on state-controlled TV that Russian strategists have badly underestimated Ukraine’s capabilities and that Russia is increasingly isolated (he backtracked soon after). The Institute for the Study of War reports a surge of “outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social media” following reports that captured Ukrainian fighters from Mariupol, denounced as Nazis by President Vladimir Putin himself, might be traded for captured Russian soldiers rather than hanged as war criminals. The implication: Putin faces more pressure from those who want him to hit Ukraine harder than from those who want peace. And now that a Russian soldier has pleaded guilty to a war crime in a Kyiv courtroom, Putin has new incentive to put captured Ukrainians before Russian cameras and judges.
Latin American leaders plan to skip Americas Summit
The US is hosting the 9th Americas Summit on June 6-10, but who will actually show up in Los Angeles remains unclear. Washington reportedly has no plans to invite Cuba — which remains under US sanctions — nor the fellow authoritarian regimes of Nicaragua and Venezuela. But the leaders of several other countries — including heavyweights like Mexico’s leftist President AMLO — are threatening to skip the get-together unless all Latin American countries get an RSVP. Interestingly, the brouhaha is happening just as the Biden administration has quietly lifted some Trump-era US sanctions against Havana. Washington is also looking to do the same with Caracas because President Joe Biden is eager to get more Venezuelan oil on the market in order to drive down prices at the pump ahead of November midterms. Is the US setting the stage to roll out the red carpet for three autocrats — Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega — to avoid a diplomatic embarrassment and a smaller-than-expected group photo?Supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah hold flags during an election rally in Tyre, Lebanon.
Can this election save Lebanon?
Corruption and mismanagement have become the hallmarks of Lebanese governance.
In 2019, the country’s ill-managed economy imploded thanks to a self-serving political elite, and in 2020, an explosion resulting from government negligence killed 230 people at a Beirut port. Subsequent attempts to stonewall the criminal investigation of the blast again exposed the greed and malice of those in charge.
In short, things need to change.
Voters will cast their ballots on May 15 in general elections for the first time since all hell broke loose three years ago. Is there any hope for a political turnaround, or will the country continue rolling over a cliff?
Decades of deterioration. Years of government mismanagement and corruption coupled with ongoing sectarian violence since the country’s civil war ended in 1990 have fueled low expectations and apathy amongst Lebanon’s electorate. Indeed, decades of pocket-lining by politicians, combined with successive governments racking up mountains of debt, have crashed the economy and sent standards of living into a free fall.
Since 2019, Lebanon’s currency has lost 90% of its value, and inflation now stands at an unfathomable 215%. Lebanese who have seen their savings dry up and their opportunities dwindle are increasingly disillusioned, and they lack trust in the government's ability to improve their plight. As a result, only 54% of eligible voters say they plan to vote, according to Oxfam.
Ongoing sectarian strife is part of the equation. Earlier this year, former PM Saad Hariri – son of slain Sunni PM Rafik Hariri – announced his resignation from politics, leaving a political vacuum. Many Sunni Lebanese – roughly one third of the population – don’t intend to vote.
Analysts say this could be good news for Hezbollah, the Shiite political party and militant group backed by Iran and deemed a terrorist organization by the US and EU. Led by Hassan Nasrallah, a hardliner, Hezbollah has been dubbed a state within a state, because it has vast military capabilities, provides some social provisions, and takes independent actions at home and abroad – like firing rockets into Israel – that invariably impact the Lebanese state.
Hezbollah’s coalition already holds around 55% of parliamentary seats and is hoping to pick up some Sunni votes to further consolidate power. The Saudis are clearly worried about it too: A prominent Saudi columnist reportedly called Hariri a “traitor” for backing out of the election and allowing Hezbollah to fill the void.
What’s at stake?
Much-needed dough. With 75% of the country living below the poverty line, Beirut has been engaged in ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for access to loans and aid.
Last month, the two sides reached a preliminary agreement for a $3 billion loan contingent on Lebanon implementing a series of reforms, including getting rid of bank secrecy laws that allow the central bank to withhold information from donors, and restructuring the banking sector.
Still, if the past is prologue, the political elite will likely continue dragging their feet on reforms that might be detrimental to their personal interests and wealth. Hezbollah has displayed some willingness to negotiate with the IMF, though it says it won’t agree to any austerity measures that would hurt its base, the majority of whom are poor.
While this loan is just a drop in the ocean compared to Lebanon’s crushing $70 billion debt, it would still be an important stepping stone, analysts say, toward boosting investor confidence.
Who's watching?
Surely, the Gulf states, which are locked in a semi-rapprochement with Beirut after a rocky 18 months. The Saudis and Emirates once flooded Lebanon with cash but withdrew as Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – grip on power tightened. Things got worse last year after a Lebanese minister criticized Riyadh’s onslaught in Yemen, prompting the Saudis to block all Lebanese imports.
The Saudis, for their part, have shown a willingness to patch things up. But it’s hard to imagine that the two states will get much cozier if Hezbollah’s power continues to grow.
The status quo presents big problems for Washington. Many members of Lebanon’s political class, who Washington partners with to try and cut off terrorist financing, are also obstructing the reform efforts needed for unlocking international aid.
Inside Lebanon, the marriage of convenience continues: Lebanon’s political elite siphon money, and Hezbollah seem to get carte blanche to fire rockets at Israel and wage Tehran’s regional war. The people of Lebanon, meanwhile, continue to suffer.
What We're Watching: Gulf states unleash on Lebanon
Gulf states lash out at Lebanon. Cash-strapped Lebanon is grappling with yet another crisis after Saudi Arabia expelled its ambassador, a move promptly followed by the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait in solidarity with Riyadh. The trigger? A Lebanese minister had previously criticized the Saudis' involvement in the ongoing war in Yemen, suggesting that the coalition led by Riyadh was the aggressor in a conflict with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Indeed, this latest episode reveals that Lebanon — which has long been plagued by sectarian tensions — yet again finds itself in the crosshairs of the Iran-Saudi rivalry. (Saudi Arabia ceased giving aid to Beirut since the-Iran backed Hezbollah movement has gained increasing influence in Lebanese political and social life.) But since billionaire tycoon Najib Mikati was appointed Lebanon's PM in September, the US and France have been lobbying the Saudis to soften their hardline approach to Lebanon, which the Gulf views as an Iranian client state, and reinstate aid to the crisis-ridden country, where three-quarters of the population now live below the poverty line. The latest episode shows that despite speculation of a détente between Tehran and Riyadh, deep animosity persists.
What We're Watching: Bangladesh religious violence, Ecuadorian drug emergency, Lebanese to vote, Russia ditches NATO
Religious tension rising in Bangladesh: Clashes between Hindus and Muslims in Bangladesh have surged over the past week, leaving at least four people dead. After an image was posted on Facebook showing the Quran at the feet of a statue at a Hindu temple, Muslims burned Hindu-owned homes and attacked their holy sites. Both sides have taken to the street in protest, with Hindus saying that they have been prevented from celebrating Durga Puja, the largest Hindu festival in the country. Such acts of sectarian violence are not uncommon in Bangladesh, a majority-Muslim country where Hindus account for nine percent of the population. Indeed, as Eurasia Group's Kevin Allison recently warned, unverified social media content stoking inter-ethnic conflict is a massive problem throughout South Asia, where for many people Facebook is synonymous with the internet.
Ecuador's state of emergency… again: Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso has declared a nationwide state of emergency to deal with surging crime fueled in large part by drug trafficking. The measure allows the government to limit freedom of movement and assembly, and gives the military authority to patrol the streets. This comes less than a month since Lasso, a pro-business social conservative elected in February, declared another state of emergency after a gang war inside a jail in the port city of Guayaquil killed more than 100 people. The oil-rich Andean nation of 17 million people has become a transit country for Colombian and Peruvian cocaine where Mexican drug cartels are becoming more influential. The state of emergency might limit burglaries, auto thefts and homicides in the short term, but what happens when it's lifted?
Will Lebanese elections matter? Less than a week since Lebanon saw some of its worst sectarian street violence in years, its parliament voted to hold new legislative elections on March 27, two months earlier than planned. (However, a simultaneous vote on introducing female quotas in parliament failed to pass.) It'll be the first popular vote since 2019, when mass protests over political corruption and economic crisis rocked the country. The pressure is now on for Najib Mikati — who became interim prime minister in July after months of political deadlock — to secure a financial recovery package from the IMF that would pave the way for more international investment and aid as the country plunges further into one of the worst economic catastrophes in modern history. Talks with the IMF will be tough because the government and banks aren't willing to implement the public sector reforms or debt restructuring initiatives that the Fund wants. Indeed, as sectarian tensions linger and many kleptocrats retain prominent roles in Lebanese political life, the upcoming election may not move the needle at all.
What We're Ignoring
Russia breaks up with NATO: Russia says it'll sever diplomatic ties with NATO and withdraw its representatives from the alliance's headquarters in Brussels. This isn't a massive surprise given that relations between Moscow and the EU have been strained for years, particularly since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. But things heated up recently when the EU expelled eight Russians from its offices for alleged spying (Russia's diplomatic presence in Belgium has been steadily shrinking for years because of espionage claims; Moscow denies them.) Perhaps as a tit-for-tat, Russia announced Tuesday that it would not supply more natural gas supplies to power-hungry Europe as it had previously pledged to do. The EU, for its part, has long accused Russia of using gas exports as a political weapon, but this latest move couldn't come at a worse time as energy prices have reached record highs across Europe. As a bonus, stirring up trouble with NATO allows Vladimir Putin to drive a wedge between Eastern and Western European members, one of his favorite pastimes.Lebanon is on fire. Where's the fire brigade?
It's been 365 days since twin blasts at a Beirut port decimated Lebanon's capital. More than 200 people were killed and some 7,000 were injured, yet accountability has been scarce. There is ample evidence that multiple Lebanese officials knew that ammonium nitrate was being improperly stored at the port. Four high-ranking politicians, including former PM Hassan Diab, have been charged by a Lebanese judge, but they all refuse to cooperate with the ongoing investigation.
Since then, Lebanon's already-dire economic and financial crises have only intensified. The Lebanese pound, the national currency, has plummeted, losing 90 percent of its value since 2019, when the country's economic crisis erupted. And more than 50 percent of the population is now living below the poverty line.
Some locals say Lebanon has become "unlivable" in recent months. So why isn't the country — now approaching failed-state status — getting the help it needs?
Corruption and dysfunction. International donors resent the corruption and cronyism that have long plagued Lebanon's political class and impeded meaningful political reform. And they have little reason to expect change. Despite international outrage in the aftermath of last year's explosion, Lebanese lawmakers have refused to lift immunity from prosecution for several former ministers wanted for questioning, stonewalling the state's investigation.
Even before the blasts, Lebanon's byzantine sectarian power-sharing system had brought the government to a standstill, while years of pocket-lining by politicians had crashed the economy and sent standards of living into free fall.
For those at the top, there has been little incentive to implement reforms: industry "entrepreneurs" have benefited from lack of government regulation and services — often giving generous kickbacks to politicians for preserving the status quo. Lebanon's sketchy electricity industry, which relies on so-called "generator mafias" with ties to the political elite, is a case in point.
Foreign aid distribution is politicized. Last summer, Emmanuel Macron, president of France, Lebanon's former colonial power, jetted into Beirut twice within a few weeks and vowed to help usher in the reforms needed for Lebanon's political and economic "rebirth." But he has also said that unlocking international aid would be contingent on Lebanon instituting some basic reforms, like forming a new government and rooting out corruption. So far, that's been a bust: just weeks ago, the interim PM Said Hariri threw in the towel after failing to find common ground with President Michel Aoun.
"Real reforms require the political class, as well as Hezbollah, to give up too much of the power, money and influence they accumulated over years and they're not ready to do that," Kim Ghattas , author of Black Wave and contributing writer at the Atlantic, told GZERO Media. "The real work and the real opportunity for change is next year, when Lebanon will have legislative, municipal and presidential elections."
Macron has made no secret of the fact that he's fed up with Lebanon's untrustworthy elite. Still, after last summer's aid-pledging conference covered just 5 percent of the damages, he will hold a second fundraising event this week.
International financial heavyweights are frustrated. Bailout talks between Beirut and the International Monetary Fund have also reached an impasse. Before the port explosion, Lebanon's central bank had refused to accept the IMF's assessment that it had incurred losses of $49 billion, and the IMF has grown frustrated at the lack of progress on meaningful political reforms its assistance is tied to. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved loans to help struggling families, but some analysts say that the loan structure shortchanges needy Lebanese while benefiting the political elite.
"For years, the international community helped feed corruption by pouring aid into Lebanon to support stability but without ever inquiring about where the money went," Ghattas said. Looking ahead, "the US and France and their allies should continue to stress the need for justice and accountability, not only for the port blast but also for the country's economic crash. Without accountability there is no stability, anywhere."
Regional players have their own agenda. To make matters worse for Lebanon, wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pulled back on doling out funds in recent years. In 2016, Riyadh scrapped a total $4 billion in aid to Lebanon's military and police, citing Iran's heavy hand in the country's affairs. The Saudis and Emiratis don't want the money going to Iran-backed Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics, and they want to see Iran and its proxy take the blame for Lebanon's popular unrest.
So why should outsiders bail out chronically unstable Lebanon? There is, of course, the moral dimension of human suffering. For those who care about their fellow human beings, that's incentive enough.
But there's also the regional implications: instability begets instability, and Lebanon lives in an unstable neighborhood. The spillover effects of a more chaotic Lebanon won't help a region still coping with large numbers of refugees and the continuing fallout from civil wars in Syria and Yemen, and potential instability elsewhere.