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This Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.

Annie Gugliotta

The Graphic Truth: Tracking the Liberal comeback

Despite the two parties narrowing by a point in the polls since they released their platforms this past week, looking at the arc of the race overall, it appears that the Conservatives peaked too early and the Liberals have made an impressive resurgence.

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Election signs are displayed along the streets ahead of federal elections.

Stacey Newman/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect

Canada’s Liberals close in on all-time comeback

On Monday, Canadians will vote in the country’s 45th general election. As things stand, the incumbent Liberal Party and its newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney are the favorites. If they manage to pull it off, it will mark an extraordinary comeback from being down 25 points in January. But that was before former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign, and just after Donald Trump began threatening the country with tariffs and statehood.
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Jess Frampton

Canada’s political parties are united in offering plans to hit back against Donald Trump

Albertan Keith Gardner has been a member of the New Democratic Party his entire adult life. He’s the provincial riding association president for Lethbridge West, and he has worked on previous federal campaigns for the NDP. But in this year’s federal election, which takes place Monday, April 28, he’s voting for Mark Carney and the Liberal Party — and the reason is Donald Trump.

“There’s a kind of existential moment going on,” Gardner says. “I think the Trump piece elevates the stakes of the election.”

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Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney listens to outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's speech just before being elected to succeed Trudeau as Liberal Party leader on Sunday, March 9, in Ottawa, Canada.

REUTERS/Amber Bracken/Pool

Carney clinches Canadian Liberal leadership

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, won the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party on Sunday, succeeding outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Carney, 59, decisively defeated former deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, and former MP and businessman Frank Baylis, garnering a whopping 85.9% of the vote. The campaign was dominated by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and territorial annexation.

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Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves after testifying at the Public Order Emergency Commission in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Nov. 25, 2022.

REUTERS/Patrick Doyle

Au revoir, Justin Trudeau

Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister of Canada winds down this weekend, as his Liberal Party chooses a new leader and gets set for a transition of power. Trudeau’s near-decade as PM began in the fall of 2015 when he embodiedyouthful optimism and a progressive agenda, focused on legalizing cannabis, advancing rights for women and LGBTQ individuals, and improving life for the Canadian middle class. His biggest achievements include renegotiating NAFTA during the first Donald Trump administration and steering Canada through the COVID-19 pandemic with significant financial aid programs.
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Canada's Liberal Party leadership candidate and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney speaks to the media after participating in an English-language debate ahead of the March 9 vote to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Montreal, Quebec, on Feb. 25, 2025.

REUTERS/Evan Buhler

Do the Liberals stand a chance after all?

Over the past year, everyone had counted the Liberals down and out – their chances of holding on to power after the next federal election in Canada had been somewhere south of slim. But now the party is enjoying a twin boost from two recent shifts in the political terrain and has closed the polling gap between them and the Conservative Party.

In January, Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister. Then Donald Trump was inaugurated as US president for the second time and immediately started coming after Canada hard, threatening economy-destroying tariffs, calling Trudeau “governor,” and talking about annexing the country and making it a “cherished” 51st state.

With Trudeau (and his baggage) on the way out and Trump stirring up nationalist fervor, the Liberals have now surpassedthe Conservatives in one recent poll by Ipsos, coming back from 26 points behind in just six weeks to lead 38% to 36%. Another poll, by Léger, finds that with Mark Carney as Liberal leader, the party’s support would hit 40% compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives.

One or two polls will never tell the whole story, but over at 338 Canada, which aggregates federal polls, the Liberals are showing a sharp uptick and, on average, find themselves within 10 points of their Conservative competitors – and climbing day by day.

Disclaimer: Mark Carney’s wife, Diana Fox Carney, is an advisor to our parent company, Eurasia Group, but no one other than GZERO’s editorial team – and excluding publisher Evan Solomon, a family friend of the Carneys – is involved in the selection and editing of our coverage.
Jess Frampton

Trump brings Canadian Liberals back from the dead

Mark Carney laid out his case for governing Canada on Saturday during a friendly interview with former Tony Blair spin doctor Alastair Campbell and short-lived Trump spokesman Anthony Scaramucci on "The Rest Is Politics" podcast.

Carney is likely to become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on March 9 and then take over from Justin Trudeau for two weeks before calling an election in which he must convince Canadians that he, not Pierre Poilievre, is the right person to handle President Donald Trump.

He is taking a harder line than the Conservative leader.

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Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announcing his bid to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the ruling Liberal Party, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025.

REUTERS/Amber Bracken

Carney, Trump, and Trudeau shape Canadian political shift

Is federal public opinion changing in Canada? Several recent polls show a resurgence for the Liberal Party, paralleled by a decline in Conservative support. For the past year, the Conservatives have led with double-digit margins, most recently as high as 25% just a month ago. But this advantage has steadily diminished, with the latest EKOS survey showing the gap narrowing to a mere three points as of late January.


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