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Carney looks like he will win a chance to lose
Unless some strange things happen, the next prime minister of Canada is likely to be an ambitious, high-achieving Albertan who made a mark on the world stage after excelling at Harvard and Oxford.
We don’t know yet whether that Albertan will be Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. But whoever becomes the Liberal Party leader on March 9 is unlikely to ever live in the official residence, because Justin Trudeau will probably still be packing boxes by the time his successor faces a different Albertan in an election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has an enormous lead in the national polls, which have not moved despite Trudeau announcing his long-pined-for resignation. The polls may move when the Liberals pick a new leader, but not enough to stop a Conservative landslide this spring.
It is impressive in a way that both Carney and Freeland — both extraordinarily accomplished people — have decided the race is worth the trouble because it looks like all the winner will get is a chance to lose. (House Leader Karina Gould is also running, but she is unlikely to find a way to be competitive in such a short race.)
A lot to give up
It is particularly striking that Carney — the former governor of the central banks in both Canada and England — is willing to give up a lucrative life in lush boardrooms for a difficult and uncertain political career. He has resigned as chair of both Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg LP and disentangled himself from a variety of other desirable gigs, giving up goodness knows how much money.
He must think he can win the leadership — and believe he has some chance of beating Poilievre — or he wouldn’t be doing all that.
Carney looks like he will win the first race. He kicked off his campaign by cracking jokes during a successful interview with Jon Stewart last week on “The Daily Show,” which drew approving reviews from Canadian Liberals who previously had found him staid, even for a banker.
But, without Stewart to loosen him up, he appeared wooden during his official launch in Edmonton, a sign of his inexperience as a politician.
Emotional and divisive
Freeland doesn’t have that problem. A former journalist who impressed Canadians with her toughness during trade negotiations with Donald Trump during his first term, she will be a formidable opponent. In her launch video, she presented herself as the candidate best suited to stand up to Trump, who is threatening to impose economy-killing tariffs on Canada.
But Freeland’s launch was interrupted by Gaza protesters and overshadowed by news that Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly — a crucial organizer in Quebec — would support Carney. Former Minister Navdeep Bains — a crucial organizer in the rest of the country — is also said to be on Team Carney, as are a growing number of prominent ministers. On Sunday, François-Philippe Champagne, the influential industry minister, is expected to endorse Carney, adding a note of finality.
Canada’s Middle East policy has not emerged as a point of debate — there have not yet been any debates — but it appears to be a dividing line in the race ahead, judging from how supporters are sorting themselves. Joly has often been criticized by Israel’s supporters, and they were quick to see her Carney endorsement as a bad sign.
Freeland has spoken up for Israel in the past, while Carney has no public record on the issue but appears to be attracting supporters who are more critical.
They will likely both be challenged to take a position as the race continues, which may damage whoever wins. An emotional and divisive dispute over Middle East policy is exactly what the Liberal Party doesn’t need as it gets ready to face Poilievre, who is strongly pro-Israel — but it may be what the party gets.
An outsider? Really?
Whether that so-far sublimated division emerges into the open or not, Carney is likely to win. He has the advantage because of “the short timeline, the high buy-in, and just the sheer number of early caucus support he’s gotten,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“In a long leadership, caucus matters very little. In a short leadership like this, where each caucus member is going to bring to the table a couple hundred supporters from their riding to be able to sign up for this, it matters a lot.”
And Freeland faces challenges. She will find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies since she was his deputy prime minister.
Carney was on the sidelines, giving him more of a credible claim to being, as he called himself on “The Daily Show,” an “outsider.” The Conservatives will ridicule that, pointing to his public support of carbon pricing, for example, but they might have to work up a sweat to make it stick. It is already stuck on Freeland.
“He’s got a lot to prove,” said a senior Liberal who prefers to remain anonymous. “Freeland has a lot to disprove, which means, I think that he has the easier go of it.”
And the manner in which Freeland left the Trudeau government — resigning on the day she was to deliver a fall economic update and throwing the government into chaos — may not sit well even with those Liberals who were relieved to see Trudeau pushed out.
There’s an old adage in politics: She who wields the knife never wears the crown.
It would be hard for her to win, but Carney — who is entering a demanding new profession at age 59 — might find a way to lose.
Whoever comes out on top will almost immediately face the fearsome Poilievre, giving them a good chance of beating the record set by Charles Tupper, who had the shortest tenure as Canadian prime minister when he served for just 68 days in 1896.
Can Liberals get a boost?
Before Trump makes a serious move on tariffs, Canadian Liberals are to choose a new leader, who will face Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in an election soon after. At that point, Canadians will decide who should manage the country – and its difficult new relationship with its southern neighbor.
All the polls show Poilievre with a decisive lead, but issue polling is giving the Liberals faint hope that they might turn things around.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeausaid Tuesday that Canada would respond with a “very strong” dollar-for-dollar retaliatory package. A poll from Ipsos for Global News finds that 82% of Canadians agree that Canada should retaliate. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievrehas said Canada should do so, but his position is more delicate, since about half of Canadian Conservatives like Trump.
He is demanding that Trudeau recall Parliament so that MPs can debate tariffs and other elements of the response. Trudeau won’t do that because Poilievre would move a non-confidence vote, which could send Canadians to the polls in the middle of a Liberal leadership race.
The same poll that showed support for retaliatory tariffs found that three-quarters of Canadians want an immediate election, but they will have to wait. Voters in Ontario will likely get the chance to express their views sooner as Premier Doug Ford is expected to call an election there as early as next week. He hopes to capitalize on his Captain Canada image and lock down votes before the federal election scrambles electoral preferences.FILE PHOTO: Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland speaks during a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 6, 2024.
The Liberal leadership race is set to be a two-candidate throwdown
On March 9, the Liberal Party will have a new leader, and soon after, Canada will have a new prime minister.
The race is set to be a contest between former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, who was Justin Trudeau’s finance minister and deputy prime minister until she resigned in December over differences with the PM.
A handful of others have declared a run including longtime Cabinet minister Karina Gould, former member of Parliament Frank Baylis, and current MPs Jaime Battiste and Chandra Arya. Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is reportedly considering a bid. But they’re long shots at best.
Candidates have until Jan. 23 to declare.
With the Liberals down more than 20 points in the polls and facing an election as early as March, whoever wins has a tough task ahead. Rather than battle for a poisoned chalice, a number of high-profile Cabinet ministers are sitting out, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc, and Transport Minister Anita Anand. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark also demurred, citing her poor French speaking skills.
The Liberals set a hefty entrance fee for candidates at 350,000 Canadian dollars — a steep amount for a short race in which strict election finance rules forbid individual donors from contributing more than CA$1,750, and companies are prohibited from donating at all. That means that only heavy hitters with wide recognition have a shot at raising enough cash in time, leaving the high-profile Carney and Freeland ahead of the pack before the race even begins.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly, and Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic LeBlanc, takes part in a press conference about the Royal Canadian Mounted Police's investigation into "violent criminal activity in Canada with connections to India", on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 14, 2024.
The clock is ticking on Trudeau
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plane touched down in Honolulu on his way back from a summit in Laos last Friday, reporters on the plane learned that a caucus revolt was underway in Canada.
While they were in the air, the Toronto Star had reported that dozens of backbench Liberal MPs were trying to figure out how to make the prime minister step down to make way for a new leader. It is no wonder why. Trudeau has been in power since 2015 but appears determined to lead his party into another election, despite polls that show a huge Conservative advantage.
Monday was Canadian Thanksgiving, so much of the political class spent the weekend exchanging feverish gossip about the behind-the-scenes plotting. Would Trudeau be forced to step down, making way for a new leader? Could the opposition bring him down in the House, sending the country to an election? Who are the plotters? Why aren’t they speaking openly?
On Tuesday, one MP did. Sean Casey, a backbencher from tiny Prince Edward Island, said it is time for Trudeau to go.
“The message that I’ve been getting loud and clear — and more and more strongly as time goes by — is that it is time for [Trudeau] to go. And I agree,” he told the CBC.
On Wednesday, CTV reported that MPs plan to ask Trudeau to step down at a high-stakes caucus meeting next week, and on Thursday, CBC reported four ministers announced they will not seek re-election. It’s not clear how it will end, but signs indicate there is growing pressure for Trudeau to go.