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Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves after testifying at the Public Order Emergency Commission in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Nov. 25, 2022.
Au revoir, Justin Trudeau
But Trudeau’s tenure was also marked by multiple controversies, including the SNC-Lavalin scandal, the WE Charity affair, and accusations of foreign interference. He failed to make major progress on Indigenous issues and his signature environmental policy, the national carbon tax, became a lightning rod for Conservatives. His generous pandemic aid programsdoubled the national debt, and his invocation of the Emergency Act to remove the so-called “Freedom Convoy” from Ottawa in 2022 was found to beoverreach by the courts.
By late last year, Trudeau’s Liberals had sunk so low in the polls that most assumed a Conservative government was inevitable. Since Trudeauannounced his resignation in early January, however, his party’s numbers have soared, due both to the prospect of a new leader and antipathy towards Trump’s comments about making Canada the “51st state.” Ironically, Trump gave the unpopular Trudeau a last-minute shot at redemption, rebranding himself as the champion of Canadian values and defending democracy at home and abroad. A high note to leave on after a tumultuous term.Canada's Liberal Party leadership candidate and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney speaks to the media after participating in an English-language debate ahead of the March 9 vote to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Montreal, Quebec, on Feb. 25, 2025.
Do the Liberals stand a chance after all?
Over the past year, everyone had counted the Liberals down and out – their chances of holding on to power after the next federal election in Canada had been somewhere south of slim. But now the party is enjoying a twin boost from two recent shifts in the political terrain and has closed the polling gap between them and the Conservative Party.
In January, Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister. Then Donald Trump was inaugurated as US president for the second time and immediately started coming after Canada hard, threatening economy-destroying tariffs, calling Trudeau “governor,” and talking about annexing the country and making it a “cherished” 51st state.
With Trudeau (and his baggage) on the way out and Trump stirring up nationalist fervor, the Liberals have now surpassedthe Conservatives in one recent poll by Ipsos, coming back from 26 points behind in just six weeks to lead 38% to 36%. Another poll, by Léger, finds that with Mark Carney as Liberal leader, the party’s support would hit 40% compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives.
One or two polls will never tell the whole story, but over at 338 Canada, which aggregates federal polls, the Liberals are showing a sharp uptick and, on average, find themselves within 10 points of their Conservative competitors – and climbing day by day.
Disclaimer: Mark Carney’s wife, Diana Fox Carney, is an advisor to our parent company, Eurasia Group, but no one other than GZERO’s editorial team – and excluding publisher Evan Solomon, a family friend of the Carneys – is involved in the selection and editing of our coverage.Trump brings Canadian Liberals back from the dead
Mark Carney laid out his case for governing Canada on Saturday during a friendly interview with former Tony Blair spin doctor Alastair Campbell and short-lived Trump spokesman Anthony Scaramucci on "The Rest Is Politics" podcast.
Carney is likely to become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on March 9 and then take over from Justin Trudeau for two weeks before calling an election in which he must convince Canadians that he, not Pierre Poilievre, is the right person to handle President Donald Trump.
He is taking a harder line than the Conservative leader.
“What had been our closest friend and ally now is just our neighbor,” he said. “The Americans are just our neighbor. It’s geography as opposed to kinship.”
In a flag-festooned rally in Ottawa on the same day, Poilievre struck a different tone. He said Canada “will bear any burden and pay any price to protect our sovereignty and independence” — while also extending an olive branch.
“We’ve always loved you as neighbors and friends. There is no country with whom we would rather share a border — the longest undefended border in the world.”
Not a professional politician
Poilievre is not free to take as hard a line as Carney because about half of his party’s supporters approve of Trump, and his approach to politics is influenced by the MAGA movement.
Carney attacked Poilievre for that in the podcast.
“Do you really believe in these elements of Canada, or have you been mouthing MAGA talking points with a Canadian twist for the past three years, and don’t buy into them and wouldn’t protect them?”
Campbell, a savvy political messenger, gave him some friendly advice.
“I think if you are a full-time experienced politician, you left that hanging, Mark,” he said. “I’d have gone straight for the jugular. You were setting it up and then you pulled your punch.”
“You’re right,” Carney said with a grimace and a smile. “Fair enough.”
Campbell, who wants Carney to win, is right. Carney is not a “full-time experienced politician.” He doesn’t know how to land a punch. Poilievre, in contrast, has an unerring instinct for his opponent’s weaknesses, and never misses an opening.
No longer a slam dunk
The election ahead was supposed to be a slam dunk. Poilievre has been leading in the polls for three years, usually by double digits. The 9-year-old Trudeau government had wandered to the left of the mainstream, leaving Canadians fed up with the cost of living, a housing crisis, mismanaged immigration, and an activist, woke approach to social issues.
All the pieces were lined up for a massive Conservative election victory until Trump started threatening to annex Canada. In the fallout, the unpopular Trudeau was forced to resign, and Carney — who had been biding his time on the sidelines — stepped forward.
The former governor of central banks in Canada and the UK, Carney has unparalleled economic and crisis-management credentials. Canadians have taken notice. He is raising money and filling halls. The one issue where the Liberals have a brand advantage — managing the relationship with the Americans — is now likely to dominate political debate.
New challenge for Poilievre
Poilievre is still ahead in the polls, but the Liberals have surged. A poll last week from Leger, Canada’s best-rated pollster, found that the electorate would be evenly divided when Carney is leader.
The result was not a complete shock to Leger because a poll the week before found Quebec’s leaderless provincial Liberals surging at the expense of nationalist Quebec parties, says Leger Vice President Sébastien Dallaire.
“There clearly is a generalized Donald Trump effect, so the voters are galvanizing, trying to show national unity against what’s happening in the United States, against Donald Trump more specifically, and parties whose brands are more aligned with defending national unity are certainly benefiting from this.”
Poilievre had planned for the election of 2025 to be a referendum against Trudeau and the carbon tax, but Trudeau is headed for the exit and Carney has promised to kill the consumer carbon tax.
The parties are converging on policies as Liberals discard unpopular Trudeau-era positions and wrap themselves in the flag after a decade in which they held more ambiguous feelings. Poilievrecan complain about their death-bed conversion, but voters are focused on the future, so he has to thread the needle, backing his country against American threats while also not sanctioning the Liberals’ response.
“You want to be heard, but you don’t want to be seen to be a bit tone-deaf or out of touch with what’s happening,” says Dallaire. “So that’s the big, big challenge for Pierre Poilievre right now. And it goes a little bit against his style of politics as well, to find that softer tone a little bit.”
Trump, who seems to despise Trudeau, has thrown the Liberal Party a lifeline — and increased the possibility that the United States will face an unfriendly new government on its northern border this spring.
Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announcing his bid to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the ruling Liberal Party, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025.
Carney, Trump, and Trudeau shape Canadian political shift
Is federal public opinion changing in Canada? Several recent polls show a resurgence for the Liberal Party, paralleled by a decline in Conservative support. For the past year, the Conservatives have led with double-digit margins, most recently as high as 25% just a month ago. But this advantage has steadily diminished, with the latest EKOS survey showing the gap narrowing to a mere three points as of late January.
In addition to EKOS, Leger’s January 2025 survey shows the Conservative lead shrinking to 18 points, with the Liberals gaining four percentage points since the last measurement. Similarly, Abacus Data reports a decrease in the Conservative lead, now standing at 21 points, reflecting a three-point drop for the Conservatives and a two-point rise for the Liberals. An aggregation of public opinion surveys still shows the Conservatives forming a majority government, however, but with slightly fewer seats than last month.
What’s behind the shift? Both Trudeau and Trump. Polls started moving after unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in early January, and after President Donald Trump took office and threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadians and make Canada the 51st state. Additionally, the entry of former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney into the Liberal leadership race has upped the party’s appeal: Polls show he is the best positioned of the candidates to expand the party’s voter pool, as Canadians look for a “Captain Canada” to stand up for their country and cure its economic malaise.
The Trump circus comes to Canada
Donald Trump hadn’t even settled into office before his presidency dominated politics — not only in the United States but also in Canada. His threat of across-the-board tariffs of 25% and musings about conquering the country with which the US shares the world’s longest undefended border startled politicians north of the 49th parallel — as well as journalists, industry leaders, and just about everyone else paying attention.
Trump’s tariffs are still set to kick in on Saturday, Feb. 1, and last week, aboard Air Force One, the president revisited his idea of Canada becoming part of the republic, calling it “a country that should be a state.” Trump claimed that if Canada were to join the US, it would have better health care, lower taxes, and “no military problems.”
The scale at which Trump’s agenda and musings have reshaped politics in Canada is, as the president himself might put it, huge. The president has turned the Canadian political landscape into a circus, affecting everything from the Liberal leadership race and the campaigns for the soon-expected federal election to the just-launched Ontario election and the trajectory of public policy.
“Given that managing relations with the US and keeping the border open to the free flow of goods are Canada’s primary national interests,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, “there’s little doubt that the specter of Trump is going to haunt Canadian politics — both federal and provincial — for the foreseeable future.”
“Upcoming elections in Ontario as well as federally will, in all likelihood, be framed in terms of Canada’s policy response to the Trump administration,” he adds, “including potential tariffs (which, if they don’t arrive on February 1, are almost inevitable at some point later this year or next).”
Indeed, the Trump circus is already underway.
Everyone is running against Trump
The governing Liberal Party is holding a leadership race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the winner will become prime minister in March. That race is already, first and foremost, about Trump. The former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland is running — and promising a summit of nations targeted by Trump, including Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Denmark, and Panama if she wins. The goal of the summit would be to “coordinate a joint response to challenges to our sovereignty and our economies,” she says. Freeland also promises dollar-for-dollar tariffs to match Trump’s duties, casting herself as the tough-on-Trump candidate.
Freeland’s chief rival, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, is setting himself in the same anti-Trump crusader mold, but with a side of seasoned crisis manager to boot. Carney, who is also running on retaliatory tariffs, says the Trump tariffs would “demand the most serious trade response in our history.” He’s promising to stand up Canada against threats from Trump — a requirement now for any politician in the country — and pitching himself as the person best suited to negotiate with the infamously mercurial Trump.
Whoever succeeds Trudeau will continue to campaign for the federal election, where they’ll take on Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, the odds-on favorite to win that election. But the federal contest will almost certainly be about Trump and who’s best suited to lead the country against him. A recent poll found nearly 80% of Canadians want an immediate election so that whichever party wins will have public support for hitting back against Trump’s tariff threat, while 82% support retaliatory duties.
Conservatives caught in an awkward position
The anti-Trump fervor is leaving Conservatives who once supported Trump in an awkward position, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who called an early election this week in Canada’s most populous province. With the election call, Ford cited Trump’s threats and the need to “outlive and outlast” his administration. Ford recently received praise for sporting a “Canada is not for sale” hat, and his snap election — with his party campaigning under the slogan “Protect Ontario” — is focused on securing a “strong mandate” to deal with tariff fallout, which could cost the province over 450,000 jobs.
Ford, who once said his support of Trump was “unwavering,” is promising to retaliate against American tariffs, including a threat to halt stateside energy exports worth billions. He’s been leading the anti-Trump charge among Canada’s premiers, and his former praise for the president is now a distant memory, making him a bit of a political contortionist.
He’s not alone.
Poilievre, who’s been cast as pro-Trump and Trumpian himself, is talking of a “Canada first” policy and promising to “hit hard” against the US if Trump goes ahead with tariffs. Poilievre recently declared that Canada can “buy elsewhere to maximize the impact on Americans and minimize the impact on Canadians,” as he argued for the country’s need to build self-reliance. Whatever ideological camaraderie Poilievre might share with Trump, the national interest comes first in politics.
Trump dominates Canadian policymaking too
The Trump administration is already shaping Canadian policy on trade, defense, immigration and the border, climate change, energy, and more, initiating a scramble to adapt quickly. Before Trump took office, Canada was working to change its border policy, and the Trudeau government quickly moved to adopt new border security measures, including drones and helicopters in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. All this comes as Canada expects a sharp rise in the number of asylum-seekers in response to Trump’s immigration crackdown, including an end to birthright citizenship, mass deportations, and suspension of the US refugee assistance program.
There’s now talk of the vulnerability of Canada’s north-south energy corridors, which have become the only show in town. Poilievre is raising the need for Canada to be able to move more of its oil and gas east to west — perhaps using the once-proposed Energy East pipeline, which never came to fruition. That would amount to a new trade and energy strategy for the country — and represent a major shift.
As Trump moves to abandon US initiatives on climate change, such as participating in the Paris Climate Accord, ending new wind power development, exploiting oil and gas deposits in protected areas, and declaring war on energy regulations, industry standards may adjust away from more climate-friendly expectations, thereby impacting Canada’s standards as well.
How long will Canada rally around the flag?
Canada’s Trump focus — and anxiety — is also producing a rally-around-the-flag effect, with a growing sense of patriotism and rejection of all that 51st-state talk. Canadians are gearing up for tough months and years ahead, with governments in Ottawa and around the country already working on relief programs to mitigate the potential damage caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s threats have even managed to mostly unite the country’s fractious premiers and prime minister in a more or less “Team Canada” approach, though Alberta Premier Danielle Smithand Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe are holdouts who oppose retaliatory tariffs. Still, that leaves 10 of 13 provinces and territories working together, which is a good rate for Canada.
But with roughly 80% of Canadian trade going to the US, the strong cultural and personal connections, a shared border, and deeply integrated defense policies, Canada will be hit hard by any fight with its neighbor — especially a prolonged one, which this could be.
Canada stands — like the US itself — to become exhausted by the endless focus on Trump and guessing at what his latest plans signify. In short, the Trump circus is just getting started, which means Canadian politicians must get used to walking the tightrope.
Carney looks like he will win a chance to lose
Unless some strange things happen, the next prime minister of Canada is likely to be an ambitious, high-achieving Albertan who made a mark on the world stage after excelling at Harvard and Oxford.
We don’t know yet whether that Albertan will be Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. But whoever becomes the Liberal Party leader on March 9 is unlikely to ever live in the official residence, because Justin Trudeau will probably still be packing boxes by the time his successor faces a different Albertan in an election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has an enormous lead in the national polls, which have not moved despite Trudeau announcing his long-pined-for resignation. The polls may move when the Liberals pick a new leader, but not enough to stop a Conservative landslide this spring.
It is impressive in a way that both Carney and Freeland — both extraordinarily accomplished people — have decided the race is worth the trouble because it looks like all the winner will get is a chance to lose. (House Leader Karina Gould is also running, but she is unlikely to find a way to be competitive in such a short race.)
A lot to give up
It is particularly striking that Carney — the former governor of the central banks in both Canada and England — is willing to give up a lucrative life in lush boardrooms for a difficult and uncertain political career. He has resigned as chair of both Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg LP and disentangled himself from a variety of other desirable gigs, giving up goodness knows how much money.
He must think he can win the leadership — and believe he has some chance of beating Poilievre — or he wouldn’t be doing all that.
Carney looks like he will win the first race. He kicked off his campaign by cracking jokes during a successful interview with Jon Stewart last week on “The Daily Show,” which drew approving reviews from Canadian Liberals who previously had found him staid, even for a banker.
But, without Stewart to loosen him up, he appeared wooden during his official launch in Edmonton, a sign of his inexperience as a politician.
Emotional and divisive
Freeland doesn’t have that problem. A former journalist who impressed Canadians with her toughness during trade negotiations with Donald Trump during his first term, she will be a formidable opponent. In her launch video, she presented herself as the candidate best suited to stand up to Trump, who is threatening to impose economy-killing tariffs on Canada.
But Freeland’s launch was interrupted by Gaza protesters and overshadowed by news that Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly — a crucial organizer in Quebec — would support Carney. Former Minister Navdeep Bains — a crucial organizer in the rest of the country — is also said to be on Team Carney, as are a growing number of prominent ministers. On Sunday, François-Philippe Champagne, the influential industry minister, is expected to endorse Carney, adding a note of finality.
Canada’s Middle East policy has not emerged as a point of debate — there have not yet been any debates — but it appears to be a dividing line in the race ahead, judging from how supporters are sorting themselves. Joly has often been criticized by Israel’s supporters, and they were quick to see her Carney endorsement as a bad sign.
Freeland has spoken up for Israel in the past, while Carney has no public record on the issue but appears to be attracting supporters who are more critical.
They will likely both be challenged to take a position as the race continues, which may damage whoever wins. An emotional and divisive dispute over Middle East policy is exactly what the Liberal Party doesn’t need as it gets ready to face Poilievre, who is strongly pro-Israel — but it may be what the party gets.
An outsider? Really?
Whether that so-far sublimated division emerges into the open or not, Carney is likely to win. He has the advantage because of “the short timeline, the high buy-in, and just the sheer number of early caucus support he’s gotten,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“In a long leadership, caucus matters very little. In a short leadership like this, where each caucus member is going to bring to the table a couple hundred supporters from their riding to be able to sign up for this, it matters a lot.”
And Freeland faces challenges. She will find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies since she was his deputy prime minister.
Carney was on the sidelines, giving him more of a credible claim to being, as he called himself on “The Daily Show,” an “outsider.” The Conservatives will ridicule that, pointing to his public support of carbon pricing, for example, but they might have to work up a sweat to make it stick. It is already stuck on Freeland.
“He’s got a lot to prove,” said a senior Liberal who prefers to remain anonymous. “Freeland has a lot to disprove, which means, I think that he has the easier go of it.”
And the manner in which Freeland left the Trudeau government — resigning on the day she was to deliver a fall economic update and throwing the government into chaos — may not sit well even with those Liberals who were relieved to see Trudeau pushed out.
There’s an old adage in politics: She who wields the knife never wears the crown.
It would be hard for her to win, but Carney — who is entering a demanding new profession at age 59 — might find a way to lose.
Whoever comes out on top will almost immediately face the fearsome Poilievre, giving them a good chance of beating the record set by Charles Tupper, who had the shortest tenure as Canadian prime minister when he served for just 68 days in 1896.
Can Liberals get a boost?
Before Trump makes a serious move on tariffs, Canadian Liberals are to choose a new leader, who will face Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in an election soon after. At that point, Canadians will decide who should manage the country – and its difficult new relationship with its southern neighbor.
All the polls show Poilievre with a decisive lead, but issue polling is giving the Liberals faint hope that they might turn things around.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeausaid Tuesday that Canada would respond with a “very strong” dollar-for-dollar retaliatory package. A poll from Ipsos for Global News finds that 82% of Canadians agree that Canada should retaliate. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievrehas said Canada should do so, but his position is more delicate, since about half of Canadian Conservatives like Trump.
He is demanding that Trudeau recall Parliament so that MPs can debate tariffs and other elements of the response. Trudeau won’t do that because Poilievre would move a non-confidence vote, which could send Canadians to the polls in the middle of a Liberal leadership race.
The same poll that showed support for retaliatory tariffs found that three-quarters of Canadians want an immediate election, but they will have to wait. Voters in Ontario will likely get the chance to express their views sooner as Premier Doug Ford is expected to call an election there as early as next week. He hopes to capitalize on his Captain Canada image and lock down votes before the federal election scrambles electoral preferences.FILE PHOTO: Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland speaks during a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 6, 2024.
The Liberal leadership race is set to be a two-candidate throwdown
On March 9, the Liberal Party will have a new leader, and soon after, Canada will have a new prime minister.
The race is set to be a contest between former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, who was Justin Trudeau’s finance minister and deputy prime minister until she resigned in December over differences with the PM.
A handful of others have declared a run including longtime Cabinet minister Karina Gould, former member of Parliament Frank Baylis, and current MPs Jaime Battiste and Chandra Arya. Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is reportedly considering a bid. But they’re long shots at best.
Candidates have until Jan. 23 to declare.
With the Liberals down more than 20 points in the polls and facing an election as early as March, whoever wins has a tough task ahead. Rather than battle for a poisoned chalice, a number of high-profile Cabinet ministers are sitting out, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc, and Transport Minister Anita Anand. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark also demurred, citing her poor French speaking skills.
The Liberals set a hefty entrance fee for candidates at 350,000 Canadian dollars — a steep amount for a short race in which strict election finance rules forbid individual donors from contributing more than CA$1,750, and companies are prohibited from donating at all. That means that only heavy hitters with wide recognition have a shot at raising enough cash in time, leaving the high-profile Carney and Freeland ahead of the pack before the race even begins.