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Hard Numbers: Shenzhen lockdown, anti-war spam, Bitcoin bond, Saudi mass execution
17.5 million: The southern Chinese city of Shenzhen will go into lockdown and test its entire population of 17.5 million three times after logging 60 COVID infections on Sunday. Xi Jinping clearly has no plans to relax his Draconian zero-COVID policy anytime soon.
150: A Norwegian computer scientist has developed a website allowing anyone to spam 150 Russian emails at a time with messages about the war in Ukraine. Activists and hackers are getting increasingly creative with ways to circumvent Russian censorship.
1 billion: El Salvador, the only country that accepts Bitcoin as legal tender, now wants to raise $1 billion with a 10-year Bitcoin bond set to launch this week. Crypto-loving President Nayib Bukele wants to use the money to pay off debt and build a Bitcoin City.
81: Saudi Arabia executed 81 men on Saturday, its largest mass execution ever. Murder, terrorism, and holding “deviant beliefs” were among the offenses. One was Syrian and seven were from Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has been fighting a long proxy war with Iran.U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on voting rights during a speech on the grounds of Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., January 11, 2022.
Hard Numbers: Biden ditches filibuster, Afghan aid, global economic slump, Chinese lockdowns
60: After sending mixed signals during his campaign and in office, US President Joe Biden now wants to get rid of the Senate filibuster in order to pass voting rights legislation. The current rule allows the minority to block any law that doesn’t have the 60 votes needed to end debate in the 100-member upper chamber of the US Congress.
5 billion: In its largest-ever country appeal, the UN says it needs $5 billion from donors to avert a humanitarian catastrophe this year in Afghanistan. Afghans face dire conditions this winter, including a risk of famine for up to one-third of the population.
4.1: The World Bank expects the global economy to grow by just 4.1 percent this year, 1.1 percentage points less than in 2021, amid a pandemic-related slowdown that will hit developing countries the hardest. COVID variants, inflation, supply-chain woes, and less government stimulus are to blame.
20 million: Some 20 million people are now under COVID lockdown in China. Anyang in Henan province became the third Chinese urban center to quarantine all its residents after detecting a couple of omicron infections, upping the pressure on China's zero-COVID policy less than a month from the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Why the UK is on lockdown; Iran pushes Biden on uranium levels
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Why is the UK going on lockdown again?
I know. And it looks like six weeks to, this is the highest level of lockdown they do. And it's this new strain of coronavirus, which it's not more lethal, but it is much more infectious. And thank God all of the vaccines work equally well against it. But nonetheless, the vaccines are still very early stages in rolling out and coronavirus is a very robust stages of rolling out. So, you were getting greater levels of hospitalization right now in the UK than in their spring peak. The case levels were exploding and so they just shut it down. Germany is extending their lockdown and here in New York City, I just heard yesterday, we've got the first confirmed cases of the new strain. This is, it's not a game changer because the vaccines are the game changer and the vaccines are rolling out and as they do, we're going to feel very, very differently, but it does mean that explosive caseload and more hospitalizations, and indeed more people dying in the coming weeks is something we're going to have to gird ourselves for. But I still think, when you looked at our top risk piece this year, we didn't make coronavirus, the number one risk and it's because of the vaccines. Also, in the nature of this disease that really does focus so much of the mortality is in a very small percentage of the population, the most elderly and the most sick. And so, in just a few weeks, four, six weeks, when we get to 10% of the population in the US that's been vaccinated, suddenly you're going to have probably some 90% of the mortality taken out of the disease. You still have concerns about long COVID, you still have people that can be sick for a long time. But just think psychologically about how much we've all been carrying about just been worrying, the worry we've had of the people that we are close to who are in their high seventies or older, or already have medical conditions and we know that if they are to get this disease, they could very easily die. That is something we're not going to have to worry about in just a few more weeks. I think that's the game changer for 2021, frankly. That's a really good news story, so something that's worth mentioning.
Okay, what do I make of Iran increasing its uranium enrichment levels?
To 20% is almost nuclear bomb grade or enrichment level. And what it means is they are pushing Biden really hard, they want to get back to the old Iranian nuclear deal, no ifs, no buts, no preconditions. And Jake Sullivan, the incoming national security advisor has made clear that, well actually, they're willing to go back to the old JCPOA as it's called that's the nuclear deal, but not by itself. They also want to open negotiations at the same time on ballistic missiles and on Iran's support for radical organizations in the region. And the Iranians want no preconditions, I think that a compromise can be found, but not easily. And the decision of Iran to push the enrichment quickly is something they don't need to do; they did on the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination by the United States. I mean, it's a little bit of national pride in Iran, which has had a much tougher year than most around the world right now. But on balance, it's really a message incoming to Joe Biden.
And then finally, with Saudi Arabia lifting its embargo on Qatar, what does that mean for the region?
Well, it's a positive. I mean, what we're seeing is the geopolitics are normalizing. When you're a CEO and you think about the Middle East, you think primarily in terms of risk, the risk environment in the Middle East is reducing somewhat around geopolitics. Israel is normalizing relations, opened diplomatic engagement directly with a number of Arab States and others are moving in that direction, even the Saudis. The GCC Blockade, breaking apart that organization because the Saudis and the UAE were fundamentally breaking ties, economically, diplomatically with Qatar, that the fact that that's ending is useful for everybody. Frankly it's even useful for Iran relations because Qatar has been able to be a conduit and interlocutor, which they obviously couldn't serve that role when the Saudis and UAE had frozen them out. So, I think there's really no downside here and I'm glad to see it. And if it's something that Trump gets to run a bit of a victory lap on God bless, he was a little bit responsible for the flare up to begin with because he didn't do very much to his closest allies when they started heading in this direction. But it's good to get it done and it's one problem that Biden doesn't need to worry about, he's got plenty, when he becomes president in a couple of weeks.
UK’s new COVID strain problematic but economic pain is a greater risk
Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:
Number one, what's the story with the new COVID strain in Britain?
Well, I mean, it's a mutation. Apparently, it is equally combatable by the vaccines that we've developed, and I've heard that directly by some of the people that are running those companies. So, it's not a concern about the ability that we have to stop the disease once we get vaccinations, thank God. But it is a problem in terms of how much more quickly the virus can be transmitted. Now, in the United Kingdom, they do an awful lot of testing, especially compared to many countries in Europe, and they have found an extensive amount of this new strain, which has led them to bring the UK into Tier 4, as they call it, which means basically Christmas is canceled. No one's going anywhere. Everything's locked down. That also has meant that a lot of countries have suspended travel to the United Kingdom, which I understand, but we've already seen some of this new strain in Italy, for example. I suspect it's going to pop up in a bunch of other countries in the continent. If it's everywhere, do you really want the additional pain economically?
Look, one thing I would say is that over the course of the next couple of months, as we see much more vaccinations, and we're going to, we've got 500,000 people vaccinated already in the United States which is a fantastic number, frankly, so quickly. These are the people that are most vulnerable. Mortality rates are going to go down significantly. As it does, there needs to be much more focus on the economic side of the equation. $600 in the pocket of the average American that is suffering on the back of all of these lockdowns is not adequate for them. And I think the new coronavirus task force under Biden should be doctors and epidemiologists, should also be economists and business leaders. You need a balance between both, and I am worried that especially as we do a better job, finally, in fighting the healthcare impact of this disease, we are not doing nearly an adequate job for the average American in fighting the economic consequences, and that is something we're going to live with for a very long time.
Okay, next question. Did Aleksei Navalny really prank his poisoner?
I don't know that I'd call it a prank in the sense that Navalny only could have died, but he did pretend to be the boss of this one Russian spy, got him on the phone, and was chewing him out with the fictitious name and say, "How was it that, Navalny, you didn't kill this guy?" And I'm sure at least psychologically it was good for Aleksei to feel like he was able to do that and get it out there. And apparently, they put this agent, this chemical agent inside the seams of Navalny's boxer shorts. I mean, I didn't need to know what kind of briefs Navalny wears personally, but now it's all out there. He wore them, it got into his body. He immediately fell very ill. Apparently when the Russians provided his body, they allowed it to fly to Germany, all the clothing was of course not there because that's evidence. And now he's trying to get that clothing. And I'm fairly certain that that clothing no longer is gettable. But does Putin care? Probably not. Navalny's considered a pest, but also, if Putin really wanted Navalny dead, Navalny would be dead by now. I think that's also pretty clear. Putin likes to show that he can play a cat and mouse game with these dissidents, that he is so much more powerful than them. I feel fairly confident that if there were more significant threats to Putin's power, the level of direct repressive measures against a lot of these people would be even greater. It's not as if Putin has any respect for human life in this context, a very depressing thing.
Did you see the Christmas Star?
I actually did. This is Jupiter and Saturn coming as close together as they've ever been since the 1600s, apparently 1623. Galileo's time. And you look out and it was right after sunset. And even in a city like New York with all the ambient light, you could actually see this very bright, two planets kind of look like stars, right? Because how the hell would we know, right where the sun had set for a couple of hours? And I mean, it was nice. It didn't excite me, but I thought it was kind of a cool thing. Interestingly, everyone talks about how it's the first time since 1623, but the astronomers are saying that back in 1623, they were too close to the position of the sun so no one could have seen it. It's like if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there, does it make a sound? Does it matter? And the answer is, well, yeah, maybe, but it's not as exciting as if the humans can put it in context, document it, has experience for us. And that's important because this does happen every few hundred years. In fact, it happened back in the early 1200s when people could see it. And then, that was the time of Genghis Khan. And that was the kind of world that we have today, more GZERO, more kind of like mass destruction, and we don't care about people. And it just feels more appropriate generally that the last time we've had this kind of a convergence of the two largest planets in the solar system... People saying Jupiter and Saturn, but they're the two largest planets. It's like the United States and China, but on a solar system kind of scale, right? I'm just going to stop right now because I clearly know nothing useful about astronomy, but you asked this question and so I'm giving you what I have.
Why US COVID relief package progress is unlikely before January
Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, offers insights on US politics:
With 250,000 Americans dead of COVID and case counts rising, is there any sign of a federal relief package on the way?
And the answer is a solid maybe. The interesting thing is even after the election, neither party has really changed their views on what they want in a stimulus. The Democrats are still holding to their $2.5 trillion number, and the Republicans are saying they want something much smaller and more targeted. President Trump is nowhere to be found in these discussions. He's busy litigating the outcome of an election he lost. Vice President Biden, the incoming President on January 20th, has indicated he basically supports the Democrat's position. He can probably be the deal breaker here. If he wants to tell the Democrats to come down with their number, that could potentially drive compromise with the Republicans. Negotiations haven't really gone anywhere though in the last six months, and I'd frankly be surprised at this point if we saw relief before the fifth January runoff election in Georgia, which will determine control of the Senate.
Why is everyone so mad at California Governor Gavin Newsom?
Well, the problem is, Gavin Newsom's having a hard time following his own rules. There's restrictions in place across California, mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns are happening, and the Governor went and celebrated a birthday party for a friend at a $450 a meal restaurant in Napa Valley. So, I think there's a lot of people saying that he's not exactly leading by example. Similar criticism was levied against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week for hosting a large dinner for incoming freshmen congressmen inside, that was later to converted to a to-go meal after some blow back on Twitter. So, there's a problem here, where many Americans are stuck inside, are being told to stay at home, are being told to cancel Thanksgiving, and political leaders aren't following their own rules.
Navalny's Novichok poisoning; EU schools reopening
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
Why would it be significant if the nerve agent Novichok, in particular, was used to poison Aleksei Navalny?
Highly significant. And the German government is absolutely certain, they say, that it was of the family of Novichok. Novichok isn't just anything. It is an extremely sophisticated, extremely dangerous, extremely difficult to manufacture nerve agent. It is no question that this is a nerve agent a poison that has origin in Russian state laboratories. And that, of course, has vast implications for the conclusions that we must draw.
How are European countries handling the reopening of schools?
There isn't any uniform answer to that. It's very different in different countries, highly dependent upon the how spread the virus is. So, it's a careful opening. But most of them are, in fact, opening.
Lebanon's new PM; why India is reopening; Lukashenko's grip on power
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
First, who is Lebanon's new prime minister?
His name's Mustafa Adib and I had never heard of him. Apparently, he wasn't being considered for prime minister until apparently 24 hours ago. He was Lebanon's ambassador to Germany or is Lebanon's ambassador to Germany. And also, a PhD in political science. So clearly, we must like him. He can't be a bad guy. He looks basically like a technocrat. But in part, it's because Lebanon is impossible to govern and can't agree on any of the well-known and outspoken figures. And this is a massive economic challenge that they're facing. Their currency is falling apart. Their budgets, they can't fund. They had that massive explosion that's going to cost billions to rebuild Beirut. Just happened a couple of weeks ago. They're also fighting coronavirus. They have millions of refugees on their territory that they're paying for. And they don't have as much money from the Gulf states that they had historically because they're facing their own budgetary challenges. On top of which, it's really hard to get an IMF deal done when you don't have effective governance and when Hezbollah is part of your government structure.
So, it's pretty ugly. I wish this guy well. I can't imagine we're going to be hearing from him for very long. But that is the situation in Lebanon. Godspeed.
With daily COVID cases surging to record highs, why is India reopening?
Well, a couple of reasons. First, because, you know, it's a very poor country and people are getting tired and angry of a pretty significant and severe lockdown that Prime Minister Modi had originally put in place. Also, India is a relatively young country. And so even if they have lots of cases, not as many people are going to need hospitalization and mortality rates are comparatively much lower than they are in the United States or Western Europe. That matters. Also, I mean, you have so many people that are prepared to live with a threat of disease, whether it's coronavirus or others, if that means that they can work, and they can continue to provide for their families. Because the alternative, with so many people at subsistence living, is much worse. And that's particularly true when you're not even testing many people. So, you don't really understand the broad contours of the crisis. I mean, there were some recent tests in this one slum that's the largest in Mumbai, over a million people live in it, I've not gone into it, but I've driven right by it on many occasions, and that 50% of that population was shown to have some kind of antibodies for coronavirus. I mean, just ripping through that area. And yet you didn't see big demonstrations or riots about coronavirus. Where you will, if the lockdowns last for longer. It's a lot easier to engage in longer lockdown and longer quarantine in countries with a lot of money and the ability to provide continued support for their populations, like in Europe, like at least until now, the United States. Though, we'll see what happens with the Phase 4 stimulus deal. In the US is getting a lot tougher for a lot of people, too.
What's the update on Belarus? Will Lukashenko fall?
It's looking less likely. The demonstrators, nonviolent, completely nonviolent, and in some cases hundreds of thousands, certainly most cases tens of thousands on the streets for a few weeks solid now in Minsk and in some other places. But Lukashenko, the president, the dictator who stole this election, claiming 80% of the popular vote, he clearly got nowhere close to that, is now arresting, detaining and arresting journalists. He has taken away the accreditation of all of the local journalists for Western institutions. So, we're not getting the same news on the ground that we were just a couple of days ago. They've also brought in special forces and they brought in tanks into Minsk, certainly sending a very disturbing message. All of that happening on the back of President Putin, of Russia, saying that if certain red lines were crossed, that the Russians would come in and provide direct support for Lukashenko. Putin had been staying on the sidelines for weeks. He certainly does not want to engage militarily. That will undermine popularity for Russia in Belarus. But he's now providing nearly a blank check for Lukashenko. And at the end of the day, you have to believe that that makes it much less likely that the supporters of democracy on the streets in Belarus are going to succeed. Horrible to say that. Horrible to see this. But that is what it looks like right now.
Certainly, personally continuing to stand for those demonstrators and hope that they can persist and prevail. But, my God, very dangerous and very courageous. If I had a kid right now in Belarus, I wouldn't want him or her to be out there on the streets. And that's what you also have to watch out for, right? I mean, the human dimension here, it's very easy to say, "stand for them." But in many of the industries, for example, in Belarus, you had seen demonstrations, but they're not willing to risk their jobs because otherwise, how are they going to make a living? And so, they haven't persisted with the kind of grass movement action in shutting down the strike action and shutting down those places that you've seen among the population as a whole in Minsk. It does look like it's moving towards Lukashenko and towards state power.
Finally, what do I make of recent Far Right protests in Germany?
Well, you know, even in Germany, where they've done an awful lot to provide support for the middle and working class and to ensure that people continue to have the ability to take care of themselves, to meet their bills, to not get evicted from their apartments, all of that, there is a significant level of impatience with very tough lockdowns and shutdowns across Germany. That's been very wide support for Merkel and the federal system in Germany, but much better alignment among the among the federal leaders, the regional leaders in Germany, than you've seen among red and blue states in the United States, for example. Merkel's popularity remains very high consistently through the pandemic. But you also saw thousands of the far right actually demonstrating in Berlin. Opposed to social distancing. Opposed to mandatory lockdowns. It is a tiny percentage of the population compared to those sorts of sentiments in other parts of Europe and certainly in the United States. But something to watch out for, particularly something to watch out for in former eastern Germany, where that political sentiment is by far the strongest, but also a part that's done comparatively well, given the social and economic response of the German government since coronavirus has hit. So, I wouldn't worry too much about that. But clearly, something that's worth the headlines, especially as the US continues to be dominated by Trump, dominated by social racial instability, and of course, our own pandemic. So, important to be looking at the news happening around the world today, especially because this pandemic is truly global and is affecting all of us together.
Will the Ukraine ceasefire last? COVID containment in Europe
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:
Will the recent ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists lead to a solution of the conflict?
That's much too early to say. At first, it remains to be seen if this ceasefire will hold. There have been a number of ceasefires and all of them have collapsed sooner or later. We'll see first what happens with this one. Will it lead to further political talks between Kiev and Moscow, primarily? That remains to be seen. I mean, there have been no indication so far of change in the basic Russian attitude of keeping on to Donbass, the one way or the other. So, let's hope for the best but let's be rather skeptical about all that's happening.
Will the recent upsurge of coronavirus and different measures taken against it in Spain lead to a new lockdown in Europe?
No, I don't think it will. I mean, you will certainly see, as you see elsewhere, sort of outburst here and there, but I think that there are better capabilities now in Europe to localize those particular outbursts and try to contain them. So, a return to the big lockdowns that was always the beginning of the year, that is, I think, neither necessary nor likely.