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The future of space: congested and contested
Satellites are now being deployed to Low Earth Orbit at a rate of thousands every year. This zone of space is already littered with old defunct satellites and the remains of discarded sections of rockets which have accumulated over more than five decades. The risk of collisions is increasing, raising fears of a runaway cascade of space debris.
Tests of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons have showered still more debris into Low Earth Orbit. Since 2007, China, the United States, India, and Russia have conducted ASAT tests. Last year the United States announced its own moratorium on ASAT tests and, through a United Nations resolution, it has called for other nations to follow suit. So far China, Russia, and India have not signed up. So is space set to become a new theater for conflict and weapons proliferation?
“Look at how satellites have become embedded in our way of life,” says Kevin Whale, senior director of defense strategy at MDA Space. “If we wreck space, it’s almost one step down from nuclear catastrophe”.
Within a few years, a new phase of the space race will begin. Both the United States and China will be competing to get people to the moon and exploit its resources, particularly water ice in craters at the lunar south pole.
According to Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, “The Outer Space Treaty says space is the province of all mankind, meaning it's open to usage really by everybody. On the other hand, the principles say we should avoid harmful interference. And so the question is, how do we go about balancing those two imperatives: open to everybody but avoid harmful interference?”
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Deputy Director, International Institute of Air and Space Law, Leiden University
Dr. Tanja Masson-Zwaan is Assistant Professor and Deputy Director of the International Institute of Air and Space Law at Leiden University, and President Emerita of the International Institute of Space Law. She currently also serves as Vice President for Science and Academic Relations of the International Astronautical Federation. Tanja advises the Dutch Government and other institutions on space law issues and was co-founder of the Hague International Space Resources Governance Working Group. She teaches at universities worldwide and is Global Faculty at International Space University.
Scott Pace
Scott Pace
Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, George Washington University
Dr. Scott Pace is Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Space Policy Institute, Director of the Institute for International Science and Technology Policy and Director of the MA International Science and Technology Policy program at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. His research interests include civil, commercial, and national security space policy, and the management of technical innovation.
Between 2017 and 2020, Dr. Pace served in the White House as Deputy Assistant to the President and Executive Secretary of the National Space Council. He previously served as the Associate Administrator for Program Analysis and Evaluation at NASA from 2005 to 2008 and Deputy Chief of Staff for the NASA Administrator from 2002 to 2003. Prior to his work at NASA, he was the Assistant Director for Space and Aeronautics in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Kevin Whale Credit: MDA
Kevin Whale
Senior Director of Defense Strategy, MDA Space
Kevin Whale is the Senior Director of Defense Strategy at MDA Space. In collaboration with business area leaders and teams, Kevin leads the development, adaptation, and execution of MDA’s pan-corporation global defense marketplace strategy for business advancement.
Brigadier General (retired) Whale served in the Royal Canadian Air Force for 36 years achieving flight qualifications on Kiowa, Twin Huey, Griffon, and Apache helicopters delivering tactical aviation mobility, reconnaissance, and aerial firepower effects to Joint warfighters. In 2017 he transitioned to space capabilities force development, readiness, and operations leading the Canadian Armed Forces Joint Space program and then as an exchange officer with the US Space Force.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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The satellite revolution in Low Earth Orbit
By the end of the decade, MDA’s Chief Executive Officer Mike Greenley predicts there will be tens of thousands of LEO satellites. Many of them will be the component parts of vast satellite constellations, such as the Starlink network, offering broadband internet. Others will be providing the services which the modern world has come to depend upon: GPS navigation, defense and security reconnaissance, weather forecasting, and remote environmental monitoring. For example, Earth Observation satellites are now the most important source of information on the pace and impacts of climate change.
Our satellite eyes in low Earth orbit have become extremely sensitive, according to Professor Martin Sweeting, founder of the UK company Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. Some of them are now able to resolve objects less than one foot in size from hundreds of miles above. Artificial intelligence is now being harnessed to process and interpret the vast amounts of data gathered by the new generation of satellites.
Carissa Bryce Christensen. Credit: BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen
Founder and Chief Executive Officer, BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of BryceTech companies in the US and the UK. She previously co-founded defense company The Tauri Group and quantum computing software company QxBranch. Ms. Christensen is an internationally recognized expert on the satellite and space industry, known for rigorous analysis and innovative, data-driven strategy. She co-chairs the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Space, and chairs the US board of the UN-affiliated Space Generation Advisory Council.
Mike Greenley. Credit: MDA
Mike Greenley
Chief Executive Officer, MDA
Mike Greenley has been the Chief Executive Officer of MDA since 2018. Founded in 1969, MDA is an international space mission partner and a robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence pioneer. Mr. Greenley oversees more than 2,700 employees across Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Mr. Greenley has over 25 years of experience in the defence and security business. Mr. Greenley is the Vice-Chair of Space Canada and recently served as the Vice-Chair of the Government of Canada’s Economic Strategy Table for Advanced Manufacturing.
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Founder and Executive Chairman, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, utilizing modern consumer electronics devices to change the economics of space. He is widely regarded internationally as the ‘father’ of small satellites which have changed the nature of the space industry. He is distinguished professor of space engineering at the UK’s University of Surrey. In 1985, he founded the university spin-off company, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd which has designed, built, launched and operated in orbit nano, micro and mini-satellites for communications & Earth observation, as well as navigation payloads for the European Galileo constellation. Sir Martin is Fellow of the UK Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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