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Palestinians walk in the rain at a makeshift camp in Gaza City, on Nov. 25, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin makes temp Gaza property plan, Taiwan to boost defenses, Tragic fire in Hong Kong, Brazil’s Lula leads in poll, Saudi opens door to liquor cabinet
20,000-25,000: As part of his vision for Gaza, US President Donald Trump is drawing on his background as a real estate guy, with plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. The aim is to entice Gazans sheltering elsewhere in the strip to move back to the area, which they were driven out of by the Israeli military. Officials say the first compound won’t be ready for months.
$40 billion: Taiwan will boost defense spending by $40 billion in order to face down the persistent threat from China, which considers the self-governing island part of its own territory. The US, which backs Taiwan, has called on Taiwan to fund more of its own military. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed Taiwan this week. Meanwhile, for more on the rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan, see our recent report here.
13: At least 13 people have died after a fire tore through a group of apartment buildings in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Hundreds of firefighters are at the scene seeking to quench the blaze. The cause remains unclear, but the buildings were enveloped in bamboo scaffolding, which the government had started to phase out in March over safety concerns.
46%: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win in any plausible matchup in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll. In a face-to-face with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula would win 46%, while the man widely considered the right-wing heir to former President Jair Bolsonaro would win 39%. The jailed Bolsonaro remains the kingmaker of the Brazilian right.
2: Cheers to this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will open two more liquor stores for foreigners, one each in Jeddah and Dhahran. Last year they opened one in the capital, Riyadh as part of a wider modernization drive that is meant to bring more foreign tourists and workers into the country. Name us a cocktail! The Jeddah Julip? The Dhahran Daiquiri? Let us know your proposal, we’ll publish the best ones next week.
Brazil sentences Bolsonaro: What it means for democracy and US-Brazil relations
Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election and allegedly conspiring to assassinate President Lula. In this week's "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the verdict highlights how “your response… has nothing to do with rule of law. It has everything to do with tribal political affiliation.”
While amnesty for junior coup plotters is likely, Bolsonaro himself appears headed for jail, unless his allies return to power. Meanwhile, US sanctions and tariffs have fueled backlash inside Brazil. As Ian puts it, “Brazil is doing everything they can to hedge away from the United States.”
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participates in the Inauguration Ceremony of the GWM Factory in Iracemapolis, state of Sao Paulo, on August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Brazil’s left-wing leader makes a comeback, Israel considers Gaza options, India and China explore border drawings
Brazil’s Lula finds a recipe for left-wing LatAm success
Brazil is now subject to 50% tariffs from the United States, but President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to be reveling in it: his approval rating jumped another three percentage points in August, per Genial/Quaest polling, reaching 46%, up from 43% in July and 40% in May. It appears Lula’s positioning as a foil to US President Donald Trump – just see his recent interviews with international outlets – is paying dividends. At a time when much of South America appears to be tilting right, the Brazilian leader may have found a recipe for keeping the left in power.
Escalation or ceasefire: what next for Gaza?
Israel reiterated Tuesday that it won’t accept a ceasefire until Hamas releases all 50 remaining hostages – 20 of whom are believed alive. This comes after Hamas officials said it had accepted a Gaza ceasefire deal, one that would return 28 of the hostages, including 10 of those who are living. Even if the truce does come to fruition, it won’t necessarily spell the end for war in the enclave: Israeli forces are ramping up activity as it prepares to invade Gaza City, calling up an extra 60,000 reservists which doubles the total number currently active.
India and China look to settle disputed border
As India-US relations worsen under Trump’s tariffs, New Delhi’s relationship with China is looking up. India and China agreed this week to explore demarcating their disputed border, a move both sides hailed as a step toward easing decades of tensions. The decision came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s first visit to Delhi in three years, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected trip to China for a regional summit. While the border remains fraught, both governments say progress could build trust and spill over into other cooperation, from trade to travel. Next stop for Wang: Pakistan, India’s rival and China’s longtime ally, who would be miffed without a visit.U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right, Lula’s anti-Trump strategy goes global
Trump to meet with Putin, proposes trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky
The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with US President Donald Trump “in the coming days” to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. The location of the meeting isn’t yet clear. Trump also reportedly told a group of European leaders yesterday he will hold a (so-far unconfirmed) trilateral summit with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump has been trying without success to get Putin to end the war – threatening further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian trade partners. Will his personal powers of persuasion do the trick?
Amid economic turmoil, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right
With the Bolivian election just 10 days away, economic grievances are causing Indigenous voters – who represent 62% of the population – to abandon the ruling Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, which has long acted as their standard-bearer and has held power for most of the last 20 years. Natural gas exports have plummeted and inflation has risen to a 40-year high. MAS now trails conservative rivals in polling. Bolivia’s election could be a bellwether for socialist difficulties elsewhere in the region: ruling left-wing movements in Chile and Colombia also face a challenging path to reelection in the next 12 months.
Brazil’s Lula goes global with anti-Trump stance
But if some LatAm leftists are looking cooked, at least one other is cooking. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is giving no ground in his clash with Trump, telling Reuters he won’t “humiliate” himself by calling the White House. The US president has threatened Latin America’s largest economy with steep tariffs over the prosecution of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump pal, on charges he plotted a coup after losing the 2022 election. The aging Lula, now in his third term and debating a fourth, has gotten a bounce at home from telling the gringo president to stuff it. But his recent spate of high-profile international media interviews suggests he’s leaning into the “anti-Trump” role at the global level, too. Narendra Modi, take note?
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro walks after the Supreme Court voted that he should stand trial for allegedly attempting a coup after his 2022 electoral defeat, in Brasilia, Brazil, on March 26, 2025.
Brazil’s top court greenlights Bolsonaro trial
Much like Jair Bolsonaro’s beloved Seleção, which lost its soccer match to Argentina this week, the former Brazilian president has reason to be concerned about his own defensive strategy. On Wednesday, the country’s Supreme Court ordered him to stand trial for his alleged efforts to overturn the last election. The ruling raises the prospect of the 70-year-old ending up behind bars and imperils his hopes of running for office in 2026.
The case at hand: Brazil’s Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro and 33 others in February with attempting a coup on Jan. 8, 2023, and accused them of forging a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and kill a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.
It is “highly likely” that the court will also find Bolsonaro guilty, said Eurasia Group Managing Director Chris Garman, but that wouldn’t stop him from holding significant sway at the next election in 2026.
“From an electoral point of view, he will remain a kingmaker on the right for the 2026 presidential election,” said Garman. “Polls consistently show his public support hasn’t dropped since the last presidential election, and he will be seen as a martyr among the conservative voters who will agree with claims he is being politically persecuted.”
FILE PHOTO: Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a signing ceremony for an addendum to the works on the Transnordestina railway, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil November 28, 2024.
Brazil’s Lula goes under the knife. Is he healthy enough to run again?
On Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent a successful craniotomy in Sao Paolo after complaining of a severe headache. The 79-year-old leader was diagnosed with an intracranial hemorrhage — basically, bleeding in the brain — linked to a fall he suffered in October. He is said to be recovering well and is expected to be able to return to work next week — but the health scare is opening questions about his political future.
Can Lula keep a healthy image? On the campaign trail, he often joked that he had the energy of a 30-year-old, but his vitality will now loom large in public discourse. Running Latin America’s largest country is a stressful, 24/7 job, and with elections looming in 2026, the politicos in Brasilia may start hearing echoes of Joe Biden.
Lula’s approval ratings are considerably higher than Biden’s were during the US campaign — Bloomberg has him at 47% approval — but in the anti-establishment environment that has dominated elections in 2024, the old warhorse might do better out to pasture. That said, most presidents don’t get elected without a healthy ego, and no one expects Lula to see himself out.
Who could step in? If Lula should experience further health problems that lead him to step down before the end of his term, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would be his constitutional successor, but not a member of Lula's party or popular with his base. Longer term, we’re watching Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, a close ally of Lula’s who is rumored to be the president’s favorite for a running mate in 2026.Several migrants on their arrival at the port of La Restinga, on September 22, 2024, in El Hierro, Canary Islands, Spain.
Hard Numbers: Spain welcomes migrants, Giraffes need protection, Brazil uncovers a plot to kill Lula, Nigel Farage excluded from farmer protests
117,000: Federal wildlife officials are calling for giraffes to be given protection under the United States Endangered Species Act because their populations are declining so rapidly – with just about 117,000 wild giraffes left worldwide, down nearly 30% since the 1980s. If they are granted protection, import of their body parts would be restricted in the US and conservation funding would increase.
5: Brazilian police have arrested five people after uncovering a plot to kill President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after he won the 2022 election. The plot came to light as a part of the ongoing investigations into the storming of Congress by outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters following his loss. Four of the arrested were active members of the military and the fifth a member of the police force, and they allegedly planned to assassinate the president, his vice president and a member of the Supreme Court.
20: Outside of Downing St in the UK, farmers protested on Wednesday to convince Labour leaders to change their mind on implementing an inheritance tax that would mean farmers with assets over £1 million will be subject to a 20% levy. Political leaders from all parties were invited to speak. That is, with the exception of Reform UK leader and Brexit architect Nigel Farage, who was left out because organizers didn’t want the protest to become the “Nigel Farage show.”