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Richarlison (L) and Neymar (R) of Brazil celebrate after scoring the first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2022 match against Serbia in Doha.
At the World Cup, Brazil plays both soccer & politics
When five-time winner Brazil takes the stage in its first World Cup knockout-stage match against big surprise South Korea on Monday, most Brazilians will put political divisions aside to unite behind the national soccer team in its quest to win another trophy in Qatar. But not all.
In a country where soccer is followed like a religion, the squad has become yet another flash point for political polarization amid the fallout from the recent presidential election. On one side are the diehard torcida (supporters) of outgoing far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who campaigned for re-election wearing the team's first-choice canarinha (canary yellow) shirt.
On the other side are the fans of left-wing President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who accuse the Bolsonaristas of co-opting the color yellow and now proudly go in blue — Brazil’s second kit — to cheer for the country. In other words, these days the color of the shirt you wear to support the national squad shows whether you’re for Bolsonaro or Lula.
(Some) players have picked a side. In the run-up to the presidential vote, mega-star Neymar shocked many by endorsing Bolsonaro to his 188 million Instagram followers. That gesture made many fans sour on the world's most expensive player, who got injured in the opening game and hopes to return against the South Koreans. Neymar's response to his haters: I want to win the World Cup and dedicate it to the president.
But the PSG striker is at political odds with two big names: Richarlison, Brazil's top scorer so far, and Tite, the coach.
Richarlison — who gives Signal writer Alex Kliment strong Blade Runner vibes — has been outspoken about promoting the COVID vaccines that Bolsonaro famously hates. Meanwhile, Tite has been publicly coy about his politics but the Bolsonaristas suspect he's a leftist because he’s given the president the cold shoulder and used to manage Corinthians, a São Paulo club with a rich history of backing progressive politics.
It's not the first time the World Cup team has gotten mixed up in divisive Brazilian politics. Before winning the Mexico '70 edition led by O Rei (King) Pelé, the democratic opposition accused the players of being puppets of the military junta running the country at the time. And in Spain '82, captain Sócrates trolled the generals by wearing a pro-democracy headband. He later went on to found a democratic movement at Corinthians and left Brazil to play in Italy until the military agreed to step down.
More recently, Tite snubbed the sitting president when the latter tried to take credit for Brazil's victory in the 2019 Copa América, and then again for hosting the 2021 edition in the middle of a pandemic. The coach says that if the canarinha wins its much-awaited O hexa (sixth World Cup) in Qatar, he won't go to Brasília to present the trophy to Bolsonaro.
The next enemy wears ... red. Will facing the South Koreans, a team that plays in the color of Communism — and Lula’s own Workers’ Party — make Bolsonaro fans even more fervent in their support of the national soccer team? As long as Brazil wins, rest assured that (almost) everyone will be overjoyed and samba all night long.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Brazilian politics: surprisingly stable
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. A Quick Take to kick off your week. There's so much that we could talk about, but we just had elections in Brazil, and as expected, Lula will be the next president of the largest economy in South America. We haven't yet heard anything from Jair Bolsonaro. That, of course, is an open question, just how much he wants to be an election denier, how much disruption he wants to bring about. But there's no question that we are going to see that transition.
Now, not a big surprise here. Lula's been polling ahead consistently over the course of the past months, though it was a tighter race, ultimately only a 1.9% split between the two candidates, a couple million votes, which had been tightening over the course of the last few weeks. In part, that's because Bolsonaro did a better job towards the end of electioneering. In part, the economy was getting a little bit better in Brazil. But also, keep in mind, generally speaking, polls underestimate the support you'll get for anti-establishment populace. And one big reason for that is because if you really don't believe in institutions, you are not likely to tell pollsters who you're going to vote for. You know why? Because you don't trust them. Now, the good news is a lot of people that really believe in conspiracy theories don't even bother to vote. But nonetheless, if they are going to vote, they're probably not going to talk to pollsters about it. So you do get a bit of that shy, radical populous turnout that did happen this time around, but not enough to make a difference.
So first of all, what do we think Bolsonaro is going to do? I mean, it would be good for the country, it'd be good for his legacy if he could just accept the fact that this was a free and fair election. Everyone around the world understands that. And as a consequence, conceding gracefully. He can run again in the future. He can certainly set himself up to be the leader of the Brazilian opposition. A lot of his allies have done comparatively well in elections, both in the Brazil's Congress, as well as in key governorships. He could be well set up for that.
His personality does not imply that's what he's going to do, much more about him than it is about his party, or it is about the country. And as a consequence, and maybe this is a problem with a lot of people that go into national elections in this environment, but it clearly appears that Bolsonaro is likely to say that this was fake news. That's a big lie. That the election really was his and not prepared to accept the outcome. Of course, if he does that, there is going to be a lot of internal dissent in the country. We'll certainly see big demonstrations, truckers for example, bikers for example, that can cause economic damage and disruption, dislocation, that could cause violence in capital cities across Brazil. But it won't change the outcome, and there's no ability for Bolsonaro to stop what will be a peaceful and on-time transition in the country. The military generally supports him but would not support a coup against democracy. The judiciary is not independent. It's actually increasingly politicized, but it doesn't support Bolsonaro. So that's not going to help him. And a lot of his allies, including in Congress, have already made clear that Bolsonaro actually lost what was a free and fair election.
So could there be a January 6th type moment in Brazil? I hope not. It's possible. But ultimately, like in the United States, it doesn't change the trajectory of this election. What it does do is continually undermine and erode the institutional legitimacy itself. That, of course, is a longer-term danger, not just in Brazil and the United States, but in many democracies around the world.
Finally, what about Lula himself? Certainly, you're now going to have a country that is more oriented towards assertive response on climate change. He's already talked about bringing deforestation down to zero in Brazil, which is going to be hard to do, but he'll be more welcomed on the international stage as a consequence of that. Economically, this is going to be a strongly left-leaning president, though the fact that he has talked a lot more about trying to tack to the center in past months, in part, to position himself to win. But in part because he understands that Congress is going to be much more divided with a lot of conservatives that aren't going to support a strongly populist economic position. That he's going to have a hard time dramatically changing the economic trajectory to the country, or significantly spending a lot of money on the fiscal side without figuring out how to pay for it.
So I suspect that this is... Even though the markets have taken a hit on the basis of Lula's win, ultimately this is going to be more stability in transition than a lot of people think. So I've never been super concerned about this election. I continue not to be super concerned about it. There's more stability in Brazil than a lot of people want to believe, and we'll watch where it goes. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Brazil's outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro votes during the election runoff in Rio de Janeiro.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro’s next move, China’s forever zero-COVID, Iran’s public trials
What’s Bolsonaro gonna do?
Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro will speak publicly on Tuesday for the first time about the presidential election, which he officially lost on Sunday to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by just under two points. Unlike in some other countries — ahem — Brazil’s unified electronic system counts all the votes at once, on the day of the election, and that’s that. But the right-wing Bolsonaro has spent months casting doubt on the credibility of that system itself, repeatedly hinting that he might not accept the result if he loses. Meanwhile, his supporters have cried foul at heavy-handed efforts by courts and electoral authorities to police fake news in the run-up to the vote. Truckers who support him have already blocked roads in 20 of Brazil’s 26 states. Some analysts fear a January 6 insurrection or worse, given Bolsonaro’s cozy ties to the military. Does he really think he can overturn the result? Probably not. Is he crazy enough to try a coup? Doubtful (really). But can he create an awful lot of chaos as a way of bolstering his political capital ahead of his upcoming role as leader of a powerful opposition that now controls congress? Surely. The results are in, but the streets are waiting: your move, Jair.
China's COVID curbs hit Disney, iPhones
Xi Jinping won't let zero-COVID go, no matter how much damage it does to China’s sputtering economy — or to people just having fun. Disney Shanghai shut its gates Monday after the city of 26 million reported a measly 10 infections, leaving visitors stuck inside. The park’s rides are still operating, which is a small bonus for visitors trapped until they test negative three times (this happened last November, with 30,000 people inside the park). Even more troubling, over the weekend employees began sneaking out of Foxconn's largest iPhone factory in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, after being locked down for days in their dormitories with dwindling food supplies amid a COVID outbreak. If a significant chunk of the 200,000-strong workforce vanishes, the factory's output of iPhones could plummet by as much as 30%. It's not just Apple devices – before the pandemic, the plant was China's third-largest exporter, shipping $32 billion worth of electronics per year. As “forever” zero-COVID threatens to further snarl global supply chains ahead of the holiday season, Xi might take over Joe Biden as this year’s Grinch.
Iran to publicly try 1,000 protesters
Tehran said Monday it’ll hold public trials for 1,000 demonstrators arrested during the ongoing protests over the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, who was reportedly beaten by the morality police for “improperly” wearing her hijab. Authorities say the defendants played an “active role” in the largest protests the country has seen in a decade. But there are no figureheads for the movement, and the women of Iran have been joined in the streets by students, labor unions, and oil workers. The public trials intend to signal that Iran’s leaders will not tolerate dissent against the theocratic republic that has called the shots since 1979. What's more, some of the protesters have been charged with crimes that carry the death penalty; if found guilty, they could be publicly executed. Iran usually hangs death row inmates inside prisons, but perhaps this time the ayatollahs think mass public executions might show protesters — and the world — that they won't give up an inch of power. Will this spark fear, as intended, or revolution?A Lula supporter watches the presidential runoff election results in Brasilia.
What We’re Watching: Lula wins Brazilian nail-biter, Russia kills Ukraine grain deal
Lula wins a tight victory in Brazil
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will return to the top job in Brazil after winning the runoff election against sitting President Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday. It was, as expected, a very close contest: with 99% of the ballots in, Lula got 50.83% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 49.17%.
Lula's tight margin of victory means we’ll keep an eye out for two things. First, he can hardly claim a broad mandate when almost half of Brazil's voters rejected him — something that seemed impossible just two months ago when the leftist Lula was leading the far-right Bolsonaro in the polls by double digits. The result confirms that Brazil is more politically polarized than it's been since the return of democracy in the 1980s and that the right-wing forces that backed Bolsonaro against Lula have staying power.
Second, Bolsonaro did not immediately concede and will likely dispute the result. The question is whether he'll do so by going to court or by urging his supporters and loyalists within the Brazilian military to take to the streets and occupy Congress. A 6 de Janeiro is certainly possible. Buckle up for a rocky transition period until Lula is scheduled to be sworn in on the first day of 2023.
Russia nixes grain deal to punish Ukraine
In response to what it claimed was a Ukrainian attack on its fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, Russia announced Saturday it was “indefinitely” backing out of a UN-brokered deal to ship Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports. The agreement, which aimed to ease global food inflation, was unlikely to be renewed when it expired on Nov. 19, as Vladimir Putin had hinted it wasn’t really helping poor countries. He may have a point: UN data indicates that more than half of the shipments were received by rich nations, with only one-fifth going to needier ones in Africa and the Middle East. Still, it’s bad news for Ukraine’s economy — and the global one. Russia walking away from the deal "will put upward pressure on prices of global staple grains, like wheat and corn," tweeted Eurasia Group analyst Peter Ceretti. Check out his thread on the implications and what might happen next.
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A man walks past Brazilian presidential campaign materials showing candidates Lula and Bolsonaro in Brasilia.
Brazil smackdown: Lula vs. Bolsonaro, final round
It’s a presidential election between two bitter rivals, each with tens of millions of supporters who see the other as a threat to democracy itself. Sound familiar? It’s not the 2024 US election just yet. No, it’s this Sunday’s presidential smackdown – er, runoff – in Brazil.
The contenders: Brazil’s far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro faces his political nemesis, left-wing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as “Lula.”
What the polls say. Lula has an average lead of about 3.5 points, with some polls showing as much as 6 points. But pollsters’ failure to predict Bolsonaro’s strong showing in the first round suggests this race could still be more of a toss-up than it seems. Undecideds make up about 4% of the electorate.
This is Brazil’s most polarized election since its return to democracy in the 1980s, says Guga Chacra, a prominent political commentator for Brazil’s GloboNews.
“These are two candidates that people really love and really hate,” he says. “Supporters of Bolsonaro or Lula see them as gods, and they see the other guy as the worst thing that could ever happen.”
So, what’s this election really about?
For some, it’s about the survival of Brazil’s democracy. Bolsonaro, who has railed against the press and the courts throughout his term, has spent months casting doubt on the credibility of Brazil’s electronic voting systems. That’s pushed many of Lula’s former rivals into supporting him for the sake of the country’s institutions. Here’s center-left ex-President Fernando Enrique Cardoso endorsing Lula, a man he beat twice in elections himself.
But Bolsonaro supporters have their own gripes about the fairness of the electoral institutions, says Chris Garman, Brazil director at Eurasia Group. They point to the appointment of an anti-Bolsonaro supreme court justice as an unaccountable fake news ombudsman, as well as a raid on the homes of several pro-Bolsonaro businessmen who simply expressed support for a coup in a WhatsApp chat. Electoral authorities have pressured local TV stations over drawing attention to Lula’s (now vacated) corruption convictions.
“It’s a death trap,” says Garman. “Each side views the other as a threat to the democratic order.”
For others: é a economia, estúpido.For most voters, though, the economy is the top issue. Bolsonaro’s pitch is that he’s cleaned up corruption, reduced crime, and got the country on a path to economic recovery after years of recession and the devastation of the pandemic. Unemployment is now at its lowest level in 6 years, inflation is high but falling, and the economy is growing again, if slowly. He also commands strong support among social ultra-conservatives and Brazil’s rapidly growing Evangelical population.
But with incomes still way below pre-pandemic levels, Lula’s pledges of more social spending, along with his track record of lifting tens of millions of Brazilians out of poverty when he was president in the 2000s, are likely what is giving him the edge in polls.
“The joke is that Lula is actually the Trump candidate,” Garman says, “because his pitch is “Let’s make Brazil Great Again.”
What comes after? If the polls are right, and Lula wins, a Brazilian 6 de Janeiro is a real possibility, though Garman says concerns about a coup by Bolsonaro’s supporters in the military are overblown. “The military doesn’t want that kind of disorder,” he says.
Still, he points out, Lula would have a hard time governing, with half the country convinced that his election was illegitimate, and with Bolsonaro-allied forces now strongly positioned in Congress after a surge in the first round of the election.
The stakes for the world? Just breathe. A Lula presidency, if it happens, would add to the recent “pink tide” in Latin America, and would also ease relations between Brazil and its partners in the US and Europe, which were strained under the populist nationalist Bolsonaro.
But the most important Brazilian election impact for the rest of the world would be in the air, literally. Brazil is home to most of the Amazon rainforest, known as “the lungs of the world.” Although deforestation was ongoing during Lula’s years in power, he has pledged greater measures to protect it than Bolsonaro, whose support for the regions’s small farmers led to some of the largest deforestation numbers in years.
A supporter of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts as people gather after polling stations were closed in the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
What We're Watching: Brazilian runoff, Burkina Faso coup 2.0, Ukraine's response to Russian annexations
Lula’s bittersweet first-round win
Left-wing former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva won the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid an Oct. 30 runoff that might now be tighter than expected. With almost 97% of the ballots counted, Lula got 47.9% of the vote, 4.2 percentage points more than his nemesis: the far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula is still favored to also win in the second round, the result is good news for Bolsonaro because he outperformed the polls, which had him trailing Lula by a wide margin and led many to believe his rival could win it all in the first round. Some experts think that Bolsonaro is consistently underestimated because many Brazilians are hesitant to admit they vote for him — a theory pollsters deny. Lula's narrower-than-expected victory might give Bolsonaro even more fodder to claim that the surveys are rigged against him. Brazil's president has spent months firing up his base with baseless doubts about the integrity of the election process, and no one would be surprised if he tries to pull a 6 de Janeiro if he loses the runoff.
Coups and counter-coups in Burkina Faso
Coups are always messy affairs, but the West African nation of Burkina Faso is taking it to a whole new level. Late on Friday, Col. Ibrahim Traoré announced the removal of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba — who ousted democratically elected President Roch Kaboré in January — for failing to defeat an Islamist insurgency. The next day, Traoré claimed Damiba was planning a counter-coup with help from former colonial power France. Pas moyen, says Paris, as protesters attacked French interests in the capital, Ouagadougou, before Damiba agreed to step down on Sunday. Meanwhile, Traoré's junta is reaching out to "new partners" to fight the jihadists — possibly code for Russian mercenaries employed by the notorious Wagner Group, already active in neighboring Mali. The Sahel remains a hotbed for Islamist insurgents despite almost a decade of French military presence, which has hurt France's reputation in many of these countries. A Russian-propagated conspiracy theory that the insecurity is a ruse by Paris to protect its interests is also fueling anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, where coups are making a comeback.
Ukraine won’t give up
Ukraine is claiming a strategic victory in one of its four regions recently annexed by Russia. Lyman, a logistical and railway base in the eastern Donetsk province, has been cleared of Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin blasted Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear threats, calling them “irresponsible” and “nuclear saber-rattling.” As for the Russian president and his recent land grab of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk, interesting times are ahead: after holding a ceremony to sign accession treaties, Moscow is expected to process the documents through its parliament, after which Russia will consider the annexations complete. Next up? Russian laws and prosecutors would be imposed on the regions; militias fighting for Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk would be incorporated formally into the Russian military; the Russian ruble would be made the only legal currency; and after an oath of loyalty, residents would officially become Russian citizens. Meanwhile, the leaders of nine NATO countries issued a joint statement on Sunday condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories and pushing NATO to increase military assistance to Kyiv.
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"Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!" A banner on a screen set up ahead of an expected ceremony and concert in Moscow to declare four Ukrainian regions part of Russia.
What We're Watching: Russian annexations, Brazilian election, DeSantis-Biden truce
Bluffs called in Ukraine
On Friday, Vladimir Putin will announce that four regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – have become part of Russia following referenda in those places that virtually no one outside Russia considers legitimate. Russian officials, including Putin himself, have said that Russia will defend its territory by any means necessary, including with nuclear weapons. This warning will have no impact on Ukrainian forces, who appear close to retaking the strategically important city of Lyman in Donetsk as part of its remarkably successful counter-offensive. Nor will it weaken support for Ukraine from America and Europe. So, what happens when Ukrainian soldiers score more victories on land that Putin claims is part of Russia? We’re about to find out.
Brazil’s election: one and done?
This Sunday, voters go to the polls in the most polarized presidential election in the country’s history. The top two vote-getters are certain to be the incumbent, right-winger Jaír Bolsonaro, and his biggest nemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The only real question is whether Lula, who currently leads Bolsonaro by double digits in some polls, will get more than 50% of the vote, winning the election outright in the first round and avoiding a late October runoff. If so, will Bolsonaro accept the result? He has spent months riling up his supporters with baseless doubts about the credibility of the electoral system. Some even fear a January 6th scenario if he loses. As his communications minister said, ominously, earlier this week: we are now nearing the “moment of truth.”
Hurricane halts DeSantis-Biden feud … for now
Hurricane Ian left more than 2.5 million people without power Thursday after slamming into Florida. Early reports reflect a death toll of 14, which is expected to rise in the coming days. Having already left 11 million Cubans in the dark, the storm is working its way up America’s Eastern Seaboard, raising the risk of floods and outages. President Joe Biden has called it potentially the “deadliest hurricane in Florida history,” while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis described it as a 1-in-500-year event from which the state will struggle to recover. DeSantis, a Republican star who recently grabbed headlines for flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, and the president say they’ve set politicking aside amid the disaster. DeSantis accepted federal assistance after speaking with Biden, noting that he was “thankful” for the help. Will the pause in their rivalry last, or will the two soon tussle over the amount of disaster aid Florida will get? Biden is planning to visit the state, so we’ll be watching to see whether DeSantis greets him with open arms … or has somewhere else to be. The closer we get to Election Day, the more DeSantis will want to convince GOP voters he can stand up to Democrats — and therefore should be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
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Presidential campaign materials displayed in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil: “Whoever gets the most votes will win, period.”
Brazil is now just two months away from its most pivotal, polarizing and potentially destabilizing presidential election in decades.
The country’s current far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is likely to face off against his nemesis, the leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, who trails badly in the polls, has spent months raising baseless doubts about the integrity of Brazil’s centralized electronic voting system. Ominously, some members of the military have echoed those concerns, raising the prospect either of January 6 style violence after the vote, or a move by the military to interfere with the transfer of power. After all, just days ago, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Brasilia to ensure that the military is fully under control ahead of the Oct. 2 vote.
To better understand what’s at stake and why things feel so on edge in Brazil right now, we sat down with Silvio Cascione, a director in Eurasia Group’s Brazil practice. The interview has been lightly edited for concision and clarity.
Silvio, what do the polls say just two months out from the election?
It’s all about Lula versus Bolsonaro. They are both charismatic leaders – each in their own way – and are known by 100% of the electorate. It’s been very difficult for any alternative candidates to break through. Bolsonaro’s popularity has started to recover from a bad year in 2021, but he’s still trailing Lula by more than 10 percentage points.
What are the main issues or concerns for Brazilian voters at the moment?
Brazilians usually care a lot about the economy, but this is even more true now: inequality has deepened after the COVID crisis. Inflation is high and income is growing at the slowest pace in a decade. Unlike in 2018, when voters also cared a lot about fighting corruption and improving public services, this time around all of their attention is on economic grievances.
We’re hearing concerns about violence surrounding the campaigns, after a local official in Lula’s party was reportedly killed by a Bolsonaro supporter last month – what can you tell us about that? Who is being targeted and why?
It’s not like Brazil never had political violence before. Bolsonaro was stabbed on the campaign trail in 2018, and there were other incidents in the past against sitting officials and candidates. But this is made worse by the very deep polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula’s hardcore supporters. Lula’s party has reported death threats against him, and nobody can rule out another potential attack targeting Bolsonaro, after what happened in 2018. But while there are extremist individuals, there is no evidence of a concerted campaign against either candidate.
Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the legitimacy of the vote itself for a while now, how worried are you about a contested election?
I’m not worried about election fraud or an institutional collapse. The election system in Brazil has a good international reputation and continues to be endorsed by most Brazilian institutions. Whoever gets more votes will be the president in 2023, period.
But it’s true that Brazilians have lost faith in political institutions for the most part, and this anti-establishment sentiment has led part of the electorate to question the voting system too. It’s never good when you see 20% or 30% of people, depending on the polling institute, saying they don’t trust the electoral system.
There’s no constitutional process to contest electoral results, but you could still see acts of violence or large protests, some of which could even cause economic disruptions, such as trucker strikes. I’m worried about events like that.
Brazil returned to democracy almost 40 years ago now. Is that in peril now?
That would be an overstatement. There are no conditions for an authoritarian regime in such a divided country with this institutional complexity, even more so considering the current international backdrop, which is very different from the 1960’s Cold War.
There will continue to be elections and Brazilian leaders will still be subject to checks and balances from Congress, courts, state governments, media, and other institutions.
But such a deep polarization and this risk of political violence are obviously not good for a healthy democracy. The quality of public debate gets poor, governance takes a hit. This is obviously bad. And, in the long term, the next generation of voters and institutions could be vulnerable to a more dangerous democratic erosion.
How might a contested election affect Brazil’s relations with the rest of the world?
We are seeing representatives of Western democracies warning Brazil about the importance of free and fair elections. There will probably be a lot of international support for Brazil’s institutions and civil society when they come together to defend the electoral results. [Assuming Lula wins] this “alliance” should help Lula in the early days of his potential administration, as he could reinforce his role as a “national unity” leader that can put Brazil back on the international stage.