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Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
France puts the AI in laissez-faire
France positioned itself as a global leader in artificial intelligence at last week’s AI Action Summit in Paris, but the gathering revealed a country more focused on attracting investment than leading Europe's approach to artificial intelligence regulation.
The summit, which drew global leaders and technology executives from around the world on Feb. 10-11, showcased France’s shift away from Europe’s traditionally strict tech regulation. French President Emmanuel Macron announced $113 billion in domestic AI investment while calling for simpler rules and faster development — a stark contrast to the EU’s landmark AI Act, which is gradually taking effect across the continent.
Esprit d’innovation
This pivot toward a business-friendly approach has been building since late 2023, when France tried unsuccessfully to water down provisions in the EU’s AI Act to help domestic firms like Mistral AI, the $6 billion Paris-based startup behind the chatbot Le Chat.
“France sees an opportunity to improve its sluggish economy via the development and promotion of domestic AI services and products,” said Mark Scott, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. “Where France does stand apart from others is its lip service to the need for some AI rules, but only in ways that, inevitably, support French companies to compete on the global stage.”
Nuclear power play
France does have unique advantages in its AI: plentiful nuclear power, tons of foreign investment, and established research centers from Silicon Valley tech giants Alphabet and Meta. The country plans to dedicate up to 10 gigawatts of nuclear power to a domestic AI computing facility by 2030 and struck deals this month with both the United Arab Emirates and the Canadian energy company Brookfield.
About 70% of France’s electricity comes from nuclear — a clean energy source that’s become critical to the long-term vision of AI companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
France vs. the EU
But critics say France’s self-promotion undermines broader European efforts. “While the previous European Commission focused on oversight and regulation, the new cohort appears to follow an entirely different strategy,” said Mia Hoffman, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. She warned that EU leaders under the second Ursula von der Leyen-led Commission, which began in September 2024, are “buying into the regulation vs. innovation narrative that dominates technology policy debates in the US.”
The summit itself reflected these tensions. “It looked more like a self-promotion campaign by France to attract talent, infrastructure, and investments, rather than a high-level international summit,” said Jessica Galissaire of the French think tank Renaissance Numérique. She argued that AI leadership “should be an objective for the EU and not member states taken individually.”
This France-first approach marks a significant departure from a more united European tech policy, suggesting France may be more interested in competing with the US and China as a player on the world stage than in strengthening Europe’s collective position in AI development.
US and Russian leaders gather in Riyadh.
Saudis host US-Russia talks, Europe holds emergency meeting on Ukraine
Before Tuesday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia between US and Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine and business dealings between the countries, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting in Paris of European leaders on Monday to discuss Ukraine. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited to Tuesday’s talks in Riyadh – and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskywas not even formally advised discussions were taking place.
What did European leaders agree on? The gathering wrapped Monday evening with a tweet by European Commission president Ursula von Leyen that “Ukraine deserves peace through strength” – but without any consensus about what that peace would look like. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed willingness to contribute peacekeeping troops, contingent upon a US security guarantee, but Polish President Donald Tusk ruled out sending Polish troops before the meeting even began. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called a discussion of peacekeepers “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” while the war is ongoing. Scholz also opposed any agreements being made without European or Ukrainian involvement.
What might a deal look like? “It is not yet clear what the US and Russia will be able to agree to or even what the agenda will look like” in Tuesday’s meeting, says Eurasia Group analyst Alex Brideau. “Russian officials have indicated they will be pushing for a broader deal that includes ending the Ukraine war on their terms, along with the resolution of a number of other outstanding security-related grievances. Trump’s main declared goal is to end the war quickly.”
We do know that while the Trump administration doesn’t want the Europeans at the table, it expects Europe to shoulder some of Ukraine’s support. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US could reduce the number of troops in Europe as part of the deal with Moscow and that any Ukraine peacekeeping force should lack the protection of NATO’s Article 5. He also signaled that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders would not happen – meaning that a sixth of Ukraine’s territory could be ceded to Russia.
But that doesn’t mean that Ukraine or Europe will agree to anything the US or Russia negotiate. “Zelensky has made clear he will not accept a deal reached without Ukraine and Europe’s participation,” says Brideau. “He and European leaders will, therefore, be working to ensure that Trump brings them into the discussions and takes their views into account,” noting that they view transatlantic unity as key to the future of any peace deal.
World leaders give Valentine's advice
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Photo illustration showing Elon Musk's post on X on a mobile phone, with a Union Jack in the background. Elon Musk has posted a stream of online attacks on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on his platform X, formerly Twitter.
European leaders call out Elon Musk
Musk has referred to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces an election next month, as a “fool” and has argued that only the nativist Alternative for Germany party can “save Germany.” He has also offered the groundless suggestion that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was “complicit” in a series of sex scandals that involved the “grooming” of young girls over many years in the UK.
In response, leaders in France, Britain, Germany, and Norway have each found their own ways of telling Musk to stay out of European politics. “Ten years ago, who would have imagined that the owner of one of the world’s largest social networks would be supporting a new international reactionary movement and intervening directly in elections, including in Germany,” asked French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
“I find it worrying that a man with enormous access to social media and huge economic resources involves himself so directly in the internal affairs of other countries,” said Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre. “A line has been crossed,” said Britain’s Starmer. “Don’t feed the troll,” warned Scholz.
This criticism looks highly unlikely to chasten Elon Musk, and Trump isn’t going to rein him in. But by calling Musk out publicly these European leaders hope to highlight his broader political agenda for undecided voters.
Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the opening session of the 19th Summit of the Francophonie at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, on Oct. 5, 2024.
France fades in Africa as Ivory Coast cuts ties
The Ivory Coast has ordered French forces to leave the country by August 2025. In a New Year’s Eve address, President Alassane Ouattara exhorted Ivorians to “be proud of our army, whose modernization is now effective.”
While Ivory Coast achieved independence in 1960, it is still home to 600 French troops, the biggest remaining contingent in West Africa. It also hosts a French military base in Abidjan, which will be turned over in January and renamed after Gen. Ouattara Thomas d'Aquin, the first chief of staff of the Ivorian Army.
The announcement from Abidjan follows Chad’s decision last month to remove French troops, the latest in a wave of expulsions from former colonies in recent years. France withdrew from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after a series of coups, and will be leaving Senegal by 2025. Anti-colonial sentiment and protests against a lack of benefits from the former colonial power have seen over 70% of African countries cut military ties with Paris, leaving only Djibouti and Gabon, with 1,500 and 350 troops, respectively.
France out, who’s in? France’s exit leaves a vacuum that other powers, including Russia, China, and Turkey have sought to fill as African nations battle Islamic insurgents. However, Russia’s Wagner Group had been accused of human rights abuses and violence in the Sahel has reportedly worsened since France withdrew.Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with US President-elect Donald Trump as he arrives for a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris as part of ceremonies to mark the reopening of the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral, in Paris, on Dec. 7, 2024.
The Trump Show, Season II
A senior Ukrainian official said Zelensky and Trump discussed "some key conditions" for ending the war with Russia but gave no details. On his Truth Social account, Trump posted “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.”
Then, on Sunday, NBC aired Trump’s first post-election interview, taped earlier at Trump Tower in New York. Speaking to Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” Trump pledged sweeping Day-One actions, from pardoning Jan. 6 rioters to deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. On birthright citizenship? He’d end it. On tariffs? Americans might pay more for goods, but “I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”
On his political enemies? No time for retribution. Instead, he’s focused on “Drill baby drill.” Trump also refused to concede the 2020 election. When asked why he didn’t think Democrats fixed the 2024 vote, he quipped that it was “too big to rig.” Yuuuuge.