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An Iranian man walks past campaign posters for the parliamentary election in Tehran, Iran, February 27, 2024.
Iranian election turnout could set new record low
Iranians will go to the polls on March 1 to vote for a new parliament, which will serve for a four-year term. They will also vote for members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics that is tasked with selecting a new Supreme Leader and serves a six-year term. However, given that the Islamic regime now carefully manages election outcomes to protect its grip on power, voter participation is expected to plumb new record lows. We asked Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew to explain the significance of this week’s polls.
What is the position of parliament in the Iranian system?
Iran’s constitution delineates legislative powers to the parliament, which also oversees the budget and cabinet appointments. However, parliament’s power is constricted by Iran’s powerful executive branch, particularly the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as the Guardian Council, a small group of clerics and senior figures who sign off on all legislation and determine who is eligible to run for office. Given these restrictions, parliament is regarded by many Iranians as a rubber-stamp committee with little real control over government policy, a feeling that has only grown more pronounced since 2020, when elections were stage-managed by the Guardian Council to ensure hardliners dominated parliament. Authorities also carefully controlled the 2021 presidential election to ensure Ebrahim Raisi, an arch conservative with close ties to Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was elected. (The next presidential election will be in 2025, when Raisi is expected to run for reelection.)
What steps is the regime taking to control the election outcome?
As with 2020, the Guardian Council has taken a heavy hand in vetting candidates: Out of the thousands of applications, many were disqualified from running for office, including most prominent reformists and moderates. This ensures the new parliament will remain dominated by hardliners with a strong affiliation with Khamenei, the IRGC, and the conservative clerical faction.
Is the sense of public alienation toward the regime growing?
Dissatisfaction with the regime is currently very high, owing to a variety of factors that include a weak economy, high inflation, widespread corruption, and ongoing and intensifying political repression. The fact that elections are now carefully managed by authorities has produced a broad view that they are sham affairs: as a result, participation in elections has dropped from over 70% to roughly 50%. It is expected to be even lower this year, perhaps the lowest on record. While the regime likely retains the support of some of the population, most Iranians view the Islamic Republic as an illegitimate government.
So, is there a chance of unrest around the vote?
Despite this widespread dissatisfaction, the circumstances don’t seem conducive to the kind of public protest that occurred in 2022, when thousands took to the streets following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police. The force of the government crackdown in response to those protests and the ongoing efforts to suppress new displays of discontent, as well as the generally bleak outlook for political reform, means most Iranians are averse to taking to the streets. Instead, citizens will express their dissatisfaction by staying at home and not participating in elections.
How worried is the regime about its legitimacy?
The Islamic Republic has held power for more than forty years. It possesses a large and sophisticated security apparatus and a toolkit of repressive measures that it uses to suppress public dissatisfaction. It is a government has proven, time and again, that it is willing to kill its own people in large numbers in order to remain in power.
That said, the regime has reasons to be worried about its position. Its credibility on a number of important issues, from the economy to terrorism, water scarcity and inflation, is in serious question. It is defined by self-dealing, with more and more of the nation’s wealth flowing to a small elite, particularly senior officers in the IRGC. Millions of Iranians are trying to leave the country, particularly educated members of the middle class.
What are the prospects for political change in the mid-to-long term?
The regime is confident it can hold on to power. It’s fixated on a potential succession crisis, given that Khamenei is eighty-four and in poor health, and the reason for stage-managed elections has been to ensure there’s a smooth transition from the current leader to a Khamenei 2.0. That’s why reformists and moderates have been squeezed out, with even former president Hasan Rouhani denied the opportunity to run for a seat on the Assembly of Experts. There’s virtually no chance the regime permits any reforms or positive political changes, at least not until after succession.
But this policy comes with its own dangers. The Iranian public appears unwilling to resume protests for the moment, but that could change. By refusing to reform, the regime has further undermined its legitimacy, and the transition to a new, similarly conservative Supreme Leader will only harden public dissatisfaction. Iran may be quiet, but it’s a powder keg that could go off at any time.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
Demonstrators display images of Mahsa Amini, who died in policy custody in Tehran in Sept. 2022.
Viewpoint: Iran braces for anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death
This Saturday marks one year since Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of Iran’s morality police sparked months of protests, and the authorities are taking steps to prevent another massive outbreak of unrest. They have preemptively arrested women’s rights activists, closed public spaces, and bolstered security forces in major cities. Yet public discontent continues to simmer in the Islamic Republic as ordinary people perceive a widening gulf between their hopes and concerns and the interests of the country’s clerical regime.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Gregory Brew if he thinks the authorities will be able to keep a lid on tensions in the coming days.
Do you expect Iranians to take to the streets this weekend?
Anniversaries are important in Iran, particularly those marking the passing of major political figures. The death of the 22-year-old Amini became hugely important for millions of Iranians, both in Iran and among the Iranian global diaspora, so there are bound to be demonstrations to mark the anniversary. They’re unlikely to be very large, however. The regime has been taking steps to deter new protests. Ordinary Iranians are reluctant to take to the streets since the crackdown last year, which saw security forces killing hundreds of protestors while wounding and arresting thousands more. Several high-profile trials and executions of arrested protestors hammered home the repressive message. The legacy of that crackdown will deter people from coming out in large numbers. But there’s sure to be some fireworks, both on 16 September and in subsequent days.
Did last year's protests achieve anything?
It’s true the protests were unsuccessful in forcing political change. Hardliners, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, still dominate the system. But it would be wrong to say the protests didn’t have an impact. They revealed the depths of dissatisfaction with the regime and galvanized opposition to hijab rules that require women to wear headscarves in public. So, while they may not have changed the system, the protests made it abundantly clear that ordinary Iranians are fed up with the status quo and are more willing to defy the government.
What is the status of the hijab issue today?
Hijab rules represent the government’s commitment to enforcing a strict form of Islamic law that many Iranians do not subscribe to. So, they’ve always been a source of controversy. Since the protests, the issue has been one of the most salient in Iran’s domestic politics. The government initially eased off enforcing these rules and adopted a carrot-and-stick approach: As the security forces cracked down on demonstrators, they looked the other way when it came to hijab infractions. Though this helped the government avoid more unrest, it left Iran’s hardliner leadership with a huge problem. Millions of Iranian women now see the hijab as a matter of personal choice, rather than state mandate. Non-compliance is commonplace.
Yet the government cannot permanently retreat on the hijab, a key pillar of its ideology. So, in the last few months, there has been a gradual crackdown: The morality police have returned, women are monitored for infractions, and a sweeping new hijab law is set to take effect next year. But ordinary Iranians are likely to resist this enforcement. There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.
How will these developments affect next year’s elections?
While Iran’s political system is authoritarian, Iranian elections have historically featured high turnout and vigorous participation. That changed in 2020-2021, however, as authorities barred reformists and moderates from participating, clearing the way for hardliner dominance. The result has been a decline in participation. Most Iranians now regard the country’s elections as a sham.
Iran’s leaders want higher participation in elections, since they provide a basis for the government’s claim to legitimacy. But the authorities won’t risk allowing reformists to compete, since doing so could threaten their own position. So, the odds of a more open, permissive election are pretty low. Iranians are unlikely to return to the polls if their only options are more hardliners.
Given broad dissatisfaction and frequent bouts of unrest, is the status quo sustainable?
It’s clear that a majority of Iranians are dissatisfied – corruption, inflation, the effects of climate change, and general oppression all feed into this sentiment. The leadership isn’t capable of solving these problems. That means that it will have to rely on suppressing dissent to remain in power. That’s not sustainable.
The Islamic Republic has a vast capacity for oppression. It has proven, time and again, that it is comfortable killing its own people in large numbers. That explains why there’s been little appetite to return to the streets: Why risk injury, arrest, and possible death if the chances of political change are so small?
That said, it’s important not to lose perspective. Changes to Iran’s political system are possible, particularly in the event of a shift in leadership at the top. Khamenei’s death, which could happen at any time, will lead to a succession crisis that could create space for changes, and possibly reforms, within the system. The Islamic Republic appears resilient, but there are numerous cracks in the façade. And just as the regime has shown its resilience, so too have the Iranian people illustrated a tenacious interest in securing greater freedoms. That’s a struggle that will persist long after the anniversary of Amini’s death.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Iranian women walk down a street with their hair exposed despite the revival of the morality police in Tehran, Iran.
Iran unveils law targeting hijab-free celebrities
Two weeks after announcing the return of its infamous “morality police,” Tehran is reviewing harsh new legislation to enforce the “modest dress” of both female and male Iranians – particularly famous ones.
Drafted by the Iranian judiciary, the Hijab and Chastity Bill would impose severe penalties for violations, including 5-10 years in prison and fines of up to 36 million tomans (US$750). It would also ramp up gender segregation at universities, hospitals, educational and administrative centers, parks, and tourist centers. But Article 43 – the so-called “celebrity clause” – has attracted the most attention. It would target actors, artists, and media personalities who declare solidarity with the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests linked to the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini. Celebs could face fines of one-tenth of their wealth and be excluded from their professional activities for a specific period.
Iranian leaders clearly hope to scare celebrities into toeing the line, but after months of government leniency in the wake of Amini’s death and protests, renewed attempts to crack down are more likely to unveil more resistance and civil unrest.
Iran’s leaders are asking for trouble
It’s impossible to predict when and where a wildfire will begin, but it’s easy to know when the ground is dry. In today’s Iran, the ground is ominously dry.
On the surface, social tensions have subsided since the height of nationwide protests over last autumn’s death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for violating rules governing the hijab, or headscarf, which Iranian women are required to wear in public. A combination of mass arrests and executions, some of them public, have moved most protesters off the streets in recent weeks.
But Iran’s conservative government now sees that it’s much easier to use tried-and-true methods to beat back demonstrators than to force all women and girls to wear the hijab in public. After all, many are simply ignoring the rules.
So, authorities have authored a new law and are using new tactics. Women who flout the state’s dress code can be kept out of school and denied services. Businesses that welcome them can be fined or shut down. Last month, cameras were installed in many city streets to boost enforcement. The next ugly confrontation ending in violence and public fury is all but inevitable.
Public frustration in Iran extends well beyond a repressive dress code. Adding fuel to the Mahsa Amini protests is an economy in terrible shape, thanks in part to Western sanctions and partly to Iran’s own policy incompetence. Inflation is probably still running well above 40%, though Iran’s government stopped publishing inflation stats two months ago. Iran’s currency is now at a record low against the dollar. The unemployment rate tops 10%. A return to the nuclear deal could slowly lift US and European sanctions, but Iran’s willingness to supply Russia’s military with drones used to attack Ukraine signals its government’s determination to reject Western terms.
If you live in Iran, it’s natural to wonder whether change is even possible. The economy has limped along for decades. The cycle of protest and repression continues. The choices available to Iran’s voters narrow further at each election.
Yet, with each passing year, the percentage of Iranians old enough to remember the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the forces that inspired it grows smaller. And each passing year brings Iran closer to the day when current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an 84-year-old cancer survivor sometimes rumored to be in poor health, will die. Only once has supreme power passed from one set of hands to another in the Islamic Republic’s history – and that was 34 years ago. Everyone with access to power and wealth within the regime must wonder what succession means for their futures and their families, and they must live with uncertainty.
With all these anxieties in mind, further disruption appears unavoidable.Open defiance will again meet determined repression. The Islamic Republic’s elite don’t want to back down on headscarves, and they fear, perhaps rightly, that concessions in one area would only ignite public demand for more. But the ground in Iran is dry, and the striking of matches there should have the world’s attention.A general view as North Korea fired two missiles from a submarine at an underwater target at an undisclosed location in North Korea March 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: North Korea goes ballistic about “puppets”, Iran pardons protesters, Lula sacks soldiers, Freddy ravages Southern Africa
2: In response to new military drills by “the US imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces,” North Korea on Monday announced it had tested two new cruise missiles, which it says it plans to fit with nuclear warheads.
22,000: Iran on Monday pardoned 22,000 people arrested for participating in the wave of protests that erupted last fall over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman arrested for not wearing a headscarf. Is this a sign that pressure from the streets is forcing the regime to moderate or, conversely, that the Supreme Leader now feels comfortable enough to show some mercy without risking a fresh wave of protests?
100: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has ousted more than 100 military men who were serving in key government posts, replacing them with civilians. The move is part of Lula’s efforts — in the wake of the Jan. 8 riots — to establish firmer control over the armed forces, where there is a lot of sympathy for his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.
99: Cyclone Freddy, one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, continues to cut a path of destruction through Southern Africa, where it has so far killed more than 99 people in Malawi and Mozambique.
Women rising up against Iran's regime: journalist and activist Masih Alinejad
Iran is facing the biggest uprising Iran since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly. Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, a sworn enemy of the Supreme Leader; it's widely believed that Iranian spies have tried to kidnap and assassinate her in New York.
From Alinejad's perspective, for the first time in Iran's history, people are setting aside long-held sectarian divisions — including toward minority Kurd and coming together to protest the regime.
And many even cheered the national soccer team's elimination at the World Cup because some players were seen as puppets of the regime.
She has a clear message to the West: If you want to help, don't go back to the 2015 nuclear deal and let Iranians bring about regime change on their own.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: "Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime" on December 12, 2022.
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Iranian activists want the West to stop legitimizing Iran's regime
French President Emmanuel Macron recently got flak for shaking the hand of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi. In part to smooth things over, Macron agreed to meet with dissidents — including journalist and activist Masih Alinejad.
Her message to him and the West in general? Recall your ambassadors from Iran and don't return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
"The only thing can make [the regime] survive [is] the US government and its allies to get back to the deal," Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And let Iranian's take care of the regime change.
"We, the people of Iran, are doing this and I want them to recognize this revolution and stop legitimizing one of the most barbaric regime," she says. "Is that too much to ask?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Iran's people vs. hardline rulers
Woman. Life. Freedom.
Those three words have filled the streets of Iran since the women-led protests agains the regime erupted last September.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly.
Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed. It's the biggest uprising Iran has seen since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Until recently, there seemed to be an opening for political reform on women in Iran.
But those hopes were dashed in 2021, when the the Supreme Leader's handpicked candidate won the presidential "election".
It's hard to say what'll happen next, although the regime will likely hang on. But even if the protesters do succeed, it's unclear what "winning" will mean. Or what cost it will exact.