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US ships during an underway replenishment in the Philippine Sea. January 19, 2023.
Hard Numbers: US camps in Philippines, Malaysia may nix death penalty, Bulgaria’s close vote, Burkina Faso vs. journalists, hungry as a bear in Japan
4: On Monday, the Philippine government confirmed the location of four new military camps that will indefinitely host rotating US forces, despite China’s opposition. The new encampments, which were announced last February, place US forces closer to Taiwan and key trade routes in the South China Sea, where China has territorial disputes with its neighbors.
1,300: Malaysia’s lower house of Parliament approved a bill on Monday to abolish mandatory death sentences, possibly sparing over 1,300 death row inmates. If the bill passes the upper house as expected and gets the king’s signature, it will mean capital punishment is no longer obligatory for crimes like murder and drug trafficking.
5: So far, it’s a dead-heat in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, the 5th in two years, between center-right PM Boyko Borisov and liberal ex-PM Kiril Petkov. Corruption and inflation were the top concerns for voters in the former Soviet ally, which has struggled to form a durable ruling coalition in recent years. Final results are expected later this week.
2: Burkina Faso’s military junta has expelled two French reporters in its crackdown on journalists. The junta, which seized power in a coup last September (the country’s second in 2022), has not offered an official reason for the move, but it comes after one of the journalist’s publications investigated the execution of children inside military barracks in the northern part of the conflict-plagued West African country.
17: Japanese bear encounters have been on the rise in the wild … and at dinner. A new vending machine in Semboku, northern Japan, is clawing a profit by selling wild bear meat for $17 (2,200 yen) per 250 g. It’s proving so popular that the operator is getting mail-order requests from as far away as Tokyo.Malaysians wave flags during the 65th National Day celebrations parade in Kuala Lumpur.
Will elections bring more political stability to Malaysia?
Malaysia will hold early elections on Nov. 19, the government announced Thursday. Polls were not due until September 2023, but Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob had come under intense pressure to bring them forward from senior figures in the ruling United Malays National Organization party and its Barisan Nasional partners. Several of these face criminal prosecutions they hope a new government would quash, while others argued elections should be held earlier to deprive the opposition of time to regroup.
Malaysia has gone through significant political instability — and three prime ministers – since the shock 2018 election defeat of UMNO, which had ruled the country since independence. Amid much greater parliamentary fragmentation and shifting political alliances, the country was led by two other coalitions – Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – until BN returned to power in 2021 with Ismail’s premiership. BN and PN have governed Malaysia together since 2020, but PN was previously the senior partner whereas BN now is.
Will the upcoming polls result in greater political stability? Will they make much difference in the policy outlook? Eurasia Group analysts Peter Mumford and Fadli Yusoff explain.
Who's favored to win?
No one, at least in terms of securing an outright majority. The most likely result is a hung parliament, with none of the coalitions having a simple majority (112 seats or more). But UMNO/BN is likely to emerge from the polls with the most seats and therefore be best placed to form the next government with the support of several small-to-mid sized parties.
UMNO/BN benefits from a much stronger ground operation than other parties/coalitions and has momentum after triumphs in recent state elections. Meanwhile, PN and PH will likely split the anti-UMNO vote, to the benefit of the ruling party.
What will this mean in terms of government policy?
A new UMNO-led government would raise concerns about further entrenching affirmative-action or race-based policies, protectionism in government procurement, and corruption related to UMNO political funding. Yet the more seats UMNO gets, the more stable its government will be, questions over Ismail’s long-term future aside. On fiscal policy, the party would push to raise more revenue, including through the reintroduction of the Goods and Services Tax, which was scrapped by the PH government. And on foreign policy, UMNO tends to favor stronger relations with China but is not anti-US.
Does the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim have a shot? How could he win?
PH’s longtime leader Anwar Ibrahim has been damaged by repeated failures to seize the top job, either in previous elections or through parliamentary dealmaking. But the opposition may be able to pull off a surprise victory if the majority ethnic Malay vote splits between BN and PN, enabling PH, which has stronger appeal among ethnic Chinese and Indians, to slip through the middle and secure victory. Public discontent over inflation, especially food prices, also remains a key voter concern, though PH has so far failed to capitalize on this.
This election will also be the first since the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, meaning there will be more than a million new young voters participating. These are more likely to reject BN’s old-style politics and vote for PH. But it is unclear how high turnout will be for this age group, as it seems less engaged in politics.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad is running to defend his seat at 97. Could he end up serving a third stint in power?
Mahathir will likely retain his seat in Langkawi island (Kedah state), but his small new party, Pejuang, is unlikely to win many others and is not part of a major coalition. The nonagenarian politician will probably not be in the mix for the premiership after the polls, barring extreme scenarios. But never say never in Malaysian politics.
What are the likely campaign issues?
BN will focus on stability after several years of political chaos, reminding voters that the country was more stable and developed rapidly when UMNO dominated government. Opponents will instead focus on inflation — which rose to a 16-month high of 4.7% in August — and corruption. The latter issue has gained prominence since ex-premier and UMNO stalwart Najib Razak’s jailing in August over the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal and a separate military procurement case.
Will the timing of the election near monsoon season have an impact?
Polls will take place on the cusp of the main monsoon period for much of Malaysia, though there is already flooding in some parts of the country. Heavy rains ahead of/during polling day would make it harder for many people to get to voting stations. Lower voter turnout in this scenario would likely help BN as its voter base is more energized, though that must be weighed against a potential public backlash for holding polls at an inconvenient time.
What We're Watching: Another bad day for Boris, NATO-Russia talks on the cards, Malaysian corruption scandal
Boris’ horrible, no good, very bad day. Boris Johnson is no stranger to controversy. In fact, sometimes he appears to relish it. But not this time. As British authorities weigh whether to impose unpopular restrictions amid a surge in omicron cases, a video has surfaced of top Downing Street aides tastelessly joking about flouting lockdown rules last Christmas by gathering for a holiday party. At the time, Britons were forbidden to gather with friends and family during the holiday season, let alone say goodbye to dying relatives. What’s more, Downing Street has been accused of trying to cover up the shindig – a “wine and cheese” night, according to the video – until this damning footage materialized. Johnson says he is “sickened and furious” about it, and a top aide has since resigned. (Johnson himself has not been accused of attending the party.) Meanwhile, London police say they are looking into the case. The timing is pretty awful for Johnson, who is already facing party backlash over a series of blunders in recent months, as well as his perceived failure to address Brexit-related shortages of gasoline and goods. Currently, 55 percent of Britons disapprove of his leadership.
Biden to convene NATO-Russia talks. A day after chatting with Vladimir Putin about the situation along the Ukrainian border, Joe Biden says he wants to bring NATO allies in for a broader discussion with the Kremlin about how to “bring down the temperature” in Eastern Europe. Moscow says it’ll send proposals for a new security agreement by next week. What the Kremlin wants, more than anything, is for NATO to agree not to expand any further into the former Soviet Union, and to give security guarantees about any NATO deployments in current Eastern European members of the bloc. But many of those eastern European states themselves are aghast at the idea that their security choices should be dictated by Moscow rather than by their own leaders and people. Is Biden preparing to make an unforgivable concession to Russia, or is it a pragmatic step to defuse what has been a sore spot in relations between Russia and the West since 1991? We, along with everyone from the Baltics to the Balkans, are watching closely.
Najib gets no joy on appeal. A Malaysian appeals court upheld a graft conviction of former PM Najib Razak, who in July 2020 was found guilty of bilking nearly $10 million from a subsidiary of 1MDB, the country’s state development fund. Najib still stands accused of embezzling hundreds of millions of dollars more than that from the fund, in a global scandal that erupted in 2016, drawing in multiple governments and international banks. Still, Najib remains an influential figure in Malaysian politics: although his UMNO coalition lost badly in 2018 because of the 1MDB revelations, they’ve been back in power since 2020, and Najib himself still holds a parliamentary seat. Najib can appeal today’s verdict one more time, but he is still facing more than 40 other corruption charges as well.
Malaysia's Registar of Societies rejects applications from Dr Mahathir's Pejuang to be registered as political party
RoS had sent a letter to them on Wednesday (Jan 6) about its decision.
Umno leader's call for snap polls in Malaysia stirs new infighting
At least two ministers have pushed back against calls from Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to hold a general election.
Umno says will contest in all seats it won at Malaysia's 2018 polls
The 15th general election is not due to be called until 2023, but Umno has said snap polls should be held.
Umno, PAS, Bersatu agree on Umno assemblyman for Perak Menteri Besar
The former chief minister's ouster had exposed a rift between Bersatu and Umno.
Malaysia's rating dip puts spotlight on political instability
Shannon Teoh Malaysia Bureau Chief In Kuala Lumpur