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U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poses with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a courtesy call at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, November 18, 2024.
Philippines locks in enhanced defense deal with US to deter China
Manila’s top defense official Gilberto Teodorosigned a treaty with the US on Monday that will allow the Philippines to access more closely-held military intelligence and purchase more advanced technology to defend itself from China. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the agreement was meant to display Washington’s commitment, saying, “We are more than allies. We are family.”
Unlike some other US allies, Manila feels quite confident that its relationship with Washington will stay strong under incoming President Donald Trump. Trump and Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. spoke over the phone on Tuesday about strengthening the alliance, which Marcos said was “very productive.”
Trump is pledging a hawkish approach to China, and the Philippines is eager to upgrade its own defenses given ongoing conflicts over the South China Sea. The strong alignment on shared interests and Marcos’praise for Trump’s “robust leadership” seem promising, as long as he can make the case to Trump that the US is coming out ahead in the transaction.
How is China preparing for Trump? President Xi Jinping attempted to set boundaries in the relationship at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru over the weekend. He drew “four red lines” for Trump to avoid: undermining the Communist Party, pushing China toward democracy, stifling China’s economic rise, and encouraging Taiwanese independence.
“These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations,” he said. But with Trump promising punitive tariffs up to 60% on Chinese goods, and appointing China hardliners like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, confrontation looks likely.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are pictured ahead of their trilateral summit at the White House in Washington on April 11, 2024.
Manila gets a big boost, but does it matter to Beijing?
Washington and Tokyo promised Manila they would help secure its seas and upgrade its infrastructure at their trilateral summit in Washington on Thursday — all big gestures, but what do they look like from Beijing?
Political winds have shifted against China in the Philippines since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power in June 2022. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, allegedly sealed a secret deal with China that is now at the center of a dangerous conflict in the South China Sea.
Duterte allegedly agreed not to send reconstruction supplies to a beached ship that Manila uses to control the disputed South Thomas Shoal. Marcos said Wednesday he was “horrified” by any deal that tells Manila what it can do on its own territory, but his attempts to resupply the hulk in March were intercepted by Chinese ships, resulting in injuries. If an incident like this turns deadly, it could spark a war that brings in America and Japan, hence the show of unity in Washington.
Beijing also sees the South Thomas Shoal as a sovereignty issue, and nothing Joe Biden or Fumio Kishida promised today is likely to change China’s tune. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Thursday reiterated warnings against violating Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a joint statement during the visit of Indonesian President Joko Widodo at the Malacanang Palace, in Manila, Philippines, on Jan. 10, 2024.
Philippine president’s feud with Duterte gets worse
An escalating feud between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, boiled over Sunday, when Marcos said the former president’s threat to lead a secession movement would be met with force.
Secession, you say? The Philippines has seen multiple secessionist movements over the years, but the most militant ones today are aligned with the Islamic State group, and it’s unclear how Duterte would carry out his threat.
Really, it’s just the latest outburst in their rhetorical scrum and a step up from their mutual accusations of drug abuse.
The beef? Marcos is rolling back Duterte's signature pro-China policies and has threatened to rejoin the International Criminal Court, where Duterte faces human rights charges over the war he launched against drug traffickers during his presidency.
Power moves. Term limits prevent Duterte from being president again, but he still leads the PDP-Laban party, which was stymied in the 2022 elections but is positioning for a comeback. Duterte wants to knock Marcos off balance in the short term to run up numbers in the midterm elections next year. That makes even more sense when you consider that Duterte’s daughter is – believe it or not – Marcos’ VP… and a front-runner for the 2028 presidential race. For now, she’s staying out of it and reaffirming her support for Marcos.