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A demonstrator looks on during a protest against election results that awarded Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro with a third term, in Caracas, Venezuela, August 3, 2024.
Will Maduro yield amid protests and calls for transparency?
Seven EU member states on Sunday demanded that the Venezuelan government publish the electoral rolls to settle last weekend’s heavily disputed election, and the US and Argentina have taken the lead in recognizing opposition candidate Edmundo González as president. Thousands of Venezuelans have put their lives and freedom at risk to protest President Nicolás Maduro’s claimed electoral victory this past week,and the regime has arrested hundreds and deployed armed paramilitaries to intimidate them.
Human Rights Watch reports that 17 people have died since protests broke out last Monday.
Gonzalez is in hiding to protect his well-being. But Maria Corina Machado, a fellow opposition leader who was barred from running, held a defiant rally on Saturday to galvanize the demonstrators. “After six days of brutal repression, they thought they were going to silence us, intimidate or paralyze us,” she said. “The presence of every one of you here today represents the best of Venezuela.”
Her coalition collected electoral tally sheets from 80% of the precincts, and they showed a landslide victory for the opposition, with 6.89 million votes for Gonzalez and 3.13 million for Maduro. Venezuela’s government claimed Maduro won 6.4 million votes to Gonzalez’s 5.3 million.
What happens now? Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are leading diplomatic efforts to set up an impartial audit of the results, and they can count on wide backing in the Americas and Europe. We’re watching how they apply pressure this week, and whether Caracas might make agreeable noises, if only to try to calm the furor in the streets.
A Venezuelan opposition supporter reacts after the results of the presidential election, outside Venezuela's Embassy in Mexico City, Mexico, July 28, 2024.
Maduro declares victory in Venezuela, opposition cries fraud
Venezuela’s strongman President Nicolás Maduro declared victory in the country’s hotly contested election on Monday, claiming to have won 51% of the vote despite independent exit polls showing a landslide for the opposition. Maria Corina Machado, Maduro’s chief rival, whom he banned from standing, said data collected by volunteers in polling places showed her candidate, Edmundo González, trouncing Maduro with 70% of the vote.
Election day. People began lining up at 3 a.m. in some parts of the capital Caracas on Sunday, anxious to cast their ballots in what many saw as their last best chance to restore the democratic process in Venezuela.
Media reports were tightly controlled, but some voters told CNN Español that they faced intimidation by militants. Citizens who attempted to enter government buildings to observe vote counting found themselves blocked by men on motorcycles donning red clothing and shouting pro-Maduro slogans.
What happens now? Machado said the opposition would fight to “defend the truth” and called on the international community to reject the results, but she stopped short of calling for protests. The presidents of Peru, Chile, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Argentina, and Uruguay all condemned or cast doubt on Maduro’s claimed victory, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for official vote tabulations to be published.
We are watching how Venezuelan voters react, and whether the international community can heap pressure on the Maduro regime — particularly given his dark warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he is forced from office.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.Venezuelans gather to demonstrate during Venezuela's election voting day in Bogota, Colombia, July 28, 2024.
Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath”
Venezuelans are voting in make-or-break elections as President Nicolás Madurotrails behind opposition leader Edmundo González by up to 30 percentage points in some polls. González – a retired diplomat who stepped in after the most popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was barred – might be the country’s best chance to restore democracy.
The background: Maduro’s 11 years in power have been marred with economic instability so severe as to cause mass malnutrition, violent political crackdowns, and America’s worst migration crisis in history. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled repression and starvation since 2015. Maduro, currently under investigation by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity, has led Venezuela to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century” according to the IMF.
How has he stayed in power? In past elections, Maduro has kept the crown by barring and jailing challengers – and using his thugs to intimidate voters. His actions have been met by US sanctions, and the last election was deemed illegitimate by the US, Canada, and 14 other countries.
Polls show an undeniable truth Maduro seems unwilling to accept: He cannot beat González in a free and fair election. This leaves Maduro – who most analysts presume will resist a peaceful transition of power – two options: mass electoral fraud and political crackdowns or making good on his warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he loses. So far at least, the government has not reported any unrest at polling places.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Diosdado Cabello participate in a rally during May Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 1, 2024.
Is Venezuela’s election going to be too lopsided to steal?
Until about two weeks ago, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro looked like he’d managed to sideline the opposition enough to ensure a win in this summer’s presidential election.
His government had disqualified the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado. Then, for good measure, it banned her stand-in as well. The familiar specter of division and disorganization hung over the beleaguered opponents of Maduro, who has run Venezuela for more than a decade.
Then the opposition united to name the little-known, 74-year-old former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as their candidate. González has delegated most of his campaigning to Machado, and his popularity has soared. A poll over the weekend showed he already holds a 40-point lead over Maduro, with 62% of respondents saying they’d vote for him.
The government has already recognized him as a candidate, tarring him as an agent of “imperialism” – but that presents a problem. By moving against him, Maduro could overplay his hand in a country already reeling from economic mismanagement and US sanctions. But facing Gonzalez directly might leave Maduro vulnerable to the one thing a strongman can’t accept: losing.