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Trump-Harris debate: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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From left to right, Lega leader Matteo Salvini, Brothers leader Giorgia Meloni, and former Italian PM and Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi.
How will the far right run Italy?
On Sept. 25, Italians head to the polls to vote in a snap parliamentary election triggered by the collapse of PM Mario Draghi's fragile coalition government in late July. Political instability and short-lived governments are nothing new in Italy, which has churned through 18 of them in the past 34 years. Now, though, an alliance of far-right parties is widely favored to win power for the first time since the end of World War II in a country with bitter memories of fascist rule. What will that government look like, and what can we expect from it? We asked Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi.
What would a far-right government look like?
It'll probably be a coalition led by the far-far-right Brothers (Fratelli d’Italia) Party, with the far-right Lega and the center-right Forza Italia parties as junior partners. If the Brothers and Lega do extremely well, there’s a chance they could do without Forza Italia (probably the smaller of the three), but this is unlikely, and they sort of come as a package.
Who would lead it?
The smart money is on Giorgia Meloni, Brothers’ shrewd leader, since the deal is that whichever party wins the most votes gets to pick the prime minister. Brothers will most likely win the most votes (and seats) of the three, and probably of any party in fact. The next PM need not be the leader of the party; in fact, looking at the last few years, prime ministers come and go every 1-2 years on average, but party leaders tend to be more durable. So it’s possible that Meloni could select another high-profile figure for the post, contenting herself to run the show from the sidelines. But she has recently dispelled this, signaling very clearly that she has her eye on the top job.
What would it mean for migration?
Given the structural drivers of migration (population growth, climate change, drought, food prices, food insecurity), the problem is only going to get worse. With chronic instability in Libya, and an unpoliceable border at sea, Italy cannot rely on Europe’s time-tested methods of co-opting autocrats to police migration flows from Algeria, Egypt, or Turkey.
Lega boss Matteo Salvini was Italy's interior minister from 2018 to 2019, when his party briefly ruled the country in a coalition with the populist 5-Star movement after the 2018 election. So we have an idea of what that looks like: generate as much noise as possible while shifting as much of the blame as possible to the EU for what is in fact a largely intractable problem. In practice, this may involve denying safe harbor and rescue rights for migrants in waters under Italian jurisdiction, while clamoring for a more equitable distribution of asylum-seekers in the EU, and more EU funding to deal with the issue – neither of which is likely.
The other option, to which Italy has resorted with some success in the past, is paying off Libyan militias to police flows — effectively holding tens of thousands of migrants in jails and internment camps, usually in appalling conditions.
What about relations with the EU?
Meloni has so far been careful to come across as moderate and as a credible partner, including vis-à-vis Brussels and Washington. None of the three parties wants to ditch the euro, let alone the EU. Having seen what the Eurozone debt crisis meant for Greece, they are not keen to go down that road, and probably won’t openly antagonize the EU initially.
However, Brothers and Lega remain fundamentally populist nationalist parties. Their basic instinct will be to reject unpopular demands from Brussels if they go counter to their electoral interests, or to foster and leverage anti-EU sentiment to shore up support for their cause in the face of a faltering economy.
Despite the leadership’s moderate turn, Brothers’ base remains rooted in the far-right, as do its rank-and-file lawmakers. Competition within the coalition also has the potential to lead to a dangerous race to the bottom, notably between Lega and Brothers — who are competing for the same electorate to some extent. Indeed, this was arguably one of the main structural factors leading to Draghi’s downfall.
Also, the fringe Italexit party — which does want Italy out of the EU — will probably meet the 3% of the vote threshold to enter parliament. Although it'll likely remain out of the coalition, Lega and Brothers will have a new competitor to contend with outside government as well.
Lastly, the broader macroeconomic context is also unhelpful. Rising inflation will prompt greater demands for fiscal stimulus and salary increases across the board, which the government will struggle to manage.
What would it do with Draghi’s stalled reforms to get EU pandemic recovery cash?
Many of the reforms required for the December review have already been legislated, so in a sense, the hard work is done. However, in most cases, the government still has to issue the legislation necessary to actually implement the reforms, which will be difficult to do by the end of the year. So the December tranche (just under 1% of GDP) of EU money will at the very least be delayed well into 2023, with direct repercussions for Italy's economic growth outlook.
Going forward, the reforms calendar will suffer, and further disbursements will also be at risk. There is also a chance the new government might want to renegotiate parts of the Recovery Plan, which could lead to further delays.
Do these far-right parties stand a better or worse chance of getting along compared to previous coalition governments?
Italy’s complex electoral system gives electoral coalitions a big advantage over parties running individually. Lega and Forza Italia formed part of Draghi’s national unity coalition. Meanwhile, Brothers had been leading the opposition and climbed steadily in the polls as a result, mainly at Lega’s expense. Yet, true to form, the three quickly closed ranks once elections were triggered, and announced they would run as a bloc.
Going forward, they also have strong incentives to keep the coalition together, though competition between them could have important implications for the policy outlook. Only a significant decline in support for any of the three parties could increase the risk of another snap election.
Europe's heat wave highlights climate & energy dependencies
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics, from the Adriatic Sea.
What's going to be the fallout of the resignation of the Draghi government in Italy?
Quite substantial. I would suspect, Mario Draghi with his government, very broad government has given Italy credibility both in terms of economic policy management, reform policies, and foreign policy not the least on Ukraine, during quite some time. He was thrown out by the populist and the rightist parties for obscure reasons. And now there will be elections on September the 25th. What's going to come thereafter? We don't know. The rightist and the center-right forces are leading in opinion polls at the moment, but all bets are off.
How is Europe handling the heatwave and the energy crisis?
Yep, that's really what's dominating. The heat wave immediately, of course, primarily in the south of Europe, but it's also in other places, emphasizing the importance of the climate transition. But also all of the issues related to our energy dependence, primarily the gas dependence of Germany and a couple of other countries on Russia, are much of the focus of the politics of Europe in the middle of the summer.
Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni during a campaign rally in Rieti.
Is she Italy’s next prime minister?
After 17 months of relative stability, Italian politics has again become a roller-coaster ride, and a country that’s had 18 governments in 34 years will soon have another. With the collapse of Mario Draghi’s coalition, a new election will likely take place in September or October.
Who will lead that government? It’s too soon to tell, given the fast-changing nature of Italian politics, but now’s a good time to take another close look at the charismatic Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the most popular party in Italy today.
Four years ago, populist firebrand Matteo Salvini was widely considered Italy's prime minister-in-waiting, until a series of political missteps left him in opposition. Then the arrival of COVID in 2020 devastated Italy and its economy, blunting the force of Salvini’s anti-EU message by leaving the country dependent on outside help.
Draghi, a former European Central Bank president and formidable technocrat, became the man of the hour, and in February 2021 he formed a government of national unity. Faced with the need to work with the EU on financial relief for his country, Draghi extended a hand to both the left and right. The center-left Democratic Party and anti-establishment Five Star party agreed to join his coalition. Crucially, so did Lega, Salvini's party.
That's when Salvini and Lega began to drop in the polls. Some voters who liked his anti-immigrant fist-shaking and attacks on EU leaders decided that Salvini had sold out by joining Draghi's government, which has accepted EU reform demands in exchange for pandemic rescue funds.
In search of a more authentic far-right alternative, many of those voters turned to the Brothers of Italy, the largest party in parliament to remain outside Draghi's coalition.
That party's leader, Giorgia Meloni, began rising in the polls.
Who is she? Just 45, Meloni has more than two decades of experience in bare-knuckled Italian politics. As a teenager, she joined the youth group within Movimento Sociale Italiano (Italian Social Movement), a barely reconstructed fascist party inspired by Benito Mussolini. After moving to the right-wing National Alliance, she became minister of youth in one of the many governments led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in 2008. In 2014, she helped found Brothers of Italy.
On immigration, the party has struck an even harder line than Lega has. The Brothers have called for blockades to stop migrants from reaching Italian ports. Meloni wants to boost Italy's birth rate to ease the need for migrant labor. She’s called for the defense of "God, fatherland, and family," an old-school fascist slogan.
Meloni has never favored an Italian exit from the EU, but she has said Italy should "re-discuss" existing EU treaties and the single currency. She has called for amending Italy's constitution to give Italian law priority over European law.
Getting to compromise. If Meloni, or anyone else in her party, becomes prime minister, her attitude toward the EU and its institutions will face intense scrutiny, both within Italy and across Europe. This is still a moment when recovery for Italy’s post-pandemic economy means cooperation with the EU to gain access to COVID relief “disbursement funds.” And that depends on continued reform of Italy’s economic management.
Meloni has taken a strong position in favor of Ukrainian and EU efforts to help that country repel Russia’s invasion. That demonstrates that her political pragmatism will trump nationalism when necessary to boost her party’s credibility as a leader in government.
But she’ll certainly have to prove to skeptics that her traditional Euro-skepticism would prevent Italy from getting the EU help it needs to restore its economy to health. And getting from here to there might prove a punishing process for Italy’s still-fragile economy.
What We're Watching: Draghi's departure, Russian annexation plans, two-way race for British PM
Draghi throws in the towel
Italy's embattled Prime Minister Mario Draghi finally stepped down on Thursday for a second time in a week, hours after winning a vote of confidence in the upper house of parliament on Wednesday evening. This time, President Sergio Mattarella didn't reject his resignation but asked him to continue as caretaker PM, presumably until a fresh election is held.
The vote of confidence was partly hijacked by mass abstentions from three of the top parties in his coalition: the populist 5-Star Movement, the far-right Lega, and the center-right Forza Italia. The no-shows broke Draghi’s hopes of keeping together a strong majority, and in the end he kept his promise to stay on as PM only if he held the coalition together. That was impossible since both Lega and Forza Italia wanted to ditch 5-Star, which they blame for the government’s collapse after rejecting Draghi's energy crisis relief plan.
The PM's departure puts an end to 18 months of a fragile unity coalition government, and ushers in a period of deep uncertainty for Italy and Europe at a critical time. Inflation and energy costs are both surging, and Draghi didn't have time to pass the reforms necessary to unlock EU pandemic relief funds. Also, the next government might be led by the Euroskeptic far-right party Brothers of Italy, out of the coalition and whose leader Giorgia Meloni celebrated the exit of "Super Mario".
Russia wants more of Ukraine
The US has feared for months that Russia aimed to annex Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. But having already seized much of the Donbas, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Moscow also intends to gobble up the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces in southern Ukraine, along with a “number of other territories.” American officials now believe Russia plans to illegally swipe sovereign parts of Ukrainian territory by introducing the ruble and forcing residents to get Russian passports — a new twist on Vladimir Putin’s 2014 playbook in Crimea, where the Kremlin held a bogus referendum on "joining Russia” prior to annexation. Since peace talks with Kyiv collapsed this spring, Putin likely thinks the odds of a negotiated settlement are slim, so he might as well take as much of Ukraine as he can before the Ukrainians get enough Western weapons to mount a counteroffensive. That would allow Putin to link Crimea by land to the Russian mainland and could boost his popularity at home. But there's a big downside: he’ll need to spend lots of troops and rubles on pacifying hostile populations and propping up battered economies.
UK race narrows to two: Sunak vs. Truss
Conservative MPs voted on Wednesday to advance Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss to the final round of balloting for leadership of their party. Starting Friday, about 160,000 party members nationwide will begin voting by mail to decide which of these two will serve as the UK’s next prime minister, at least until the next national election. The result of the vote won’t be known until Sept. 5. Sunak is best known for serving as chancellor during the pandemic and directing heavy spending to boost the UK’s flagging economy. Though fined for involvement in outgoing PM Boris Johnson’s lockdown scandals, Sunak was among the first to signal his lack of confidence in Johnson by resigning. Truss has served as both post-Brexit international trade secretary and foreign minister. So far, the candidates have competed for votes among their fellow MPs. Now they must win the hearts and minds of their party’s rank-and-file. A YouGov poll of party members this week showed support favoring Truss, 54% to 35%. But it’s all to play for as weeks of hustings kick off across the UK after Monday’s televised debate between the finalists. The new prime minister will then have to persuade the rest of the country that Tories aren’t just listening to other Tories.Who’s running Italy?
Italy’s government has been thrown into a period of uncertainty. On Thursday, Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to step down after the populist 5-Star Movement, one of the biggest parties in his coalition government, refused to back his 23 billion euro ($23.1 billion) energy crisis relief plan. But President Sergio Mattarella refused the resignation.
The former European Central Bank chief, known as “Super Mario” for saving the Eurozone from its debt crisis more than a decade ago, acknowledged that he’d lost the confidence of his “unity” cabinet.
Strings attached. The lower house of parliament signed off on the relief bill last week. But in the upper house, Thursday's vote on it had been tied to a prior vote of confidence in Draghi himself.
"While the 5-Star MPs approved the first measure, they left the room when it was time to vote on the second," says Eurasia Group analyst Federico Santi. Meanwhile, many 5-Star members have spent the past week complaining about the bill.
Still, by offering to step down, "Draghi stood by his word as he repeatedly maintained that he won’t go on if 5-Star exits the coalition," Santi adds.
This has been building. While a shock to many, Foreign Minister and 5-Star leader Luigi di Maio said some party members “have been planning for months for an outbreak of a crisis to put an end to Draghi’s government.”
A month ago, the party itself was on the verge of breaking apart and away from the coalition due to skepticism over Italy’s support for Ukraine. And weeks before that, the far-right Brothers of Italy Party won big in local elections; they’re not members of the coalition, but their strong showing point to a possible shift in the nationwide political tenor.
What happens now? Normally, if the PM’s resignation is accepted, the president would consult with parties to find a new candidate. But now things are up in the air. Mattarella has instead asked Draghi to address parliament about the state of the coalition.
Draghi’s much-awaited speech is unlikely to be scheduled before next Wednesday, which means Italy is left in political turmoil — and without the relief package Italians desperately need to help ease the impact of the energy crisis.
Unsurprisingly, well-known former PMs Giuseppe Conte, Enrico Letta, Matteo Renzi, and even Silvio Berlusconi jumped at the opportunity to try and seize the spotlight amid the chaos. But before it’s anyone else’s turn to try and gain the majority’s trust, Mattarella is giving Draghi a chance to prove he still has it.
Under-the-radar European elections
Over the past year, the biggest story in European politics has been its remarkable unity in response to crises. The EU plan for COVID recovery and the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been much more cooperative and effective than the sometimes-ugly debates over managing the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010 or the migrant crisis of 2015-2016.
But political pressure is building on the continent. Inflationary pressures, exacerbated by continuing supply-chain disruptions, higher food and fuel costs provoked by the war, and ambitious plans to redraw Europe’s energy map and spend more on defense are stoking public fear that it’s all too much at once. How these concerns play out domestically in a few key countries could impact European unity and progress moving forward.
This weekend, voters go to the polls in France and Italy, and the messages they send will only become more urgent in the coming months.
Can Macron win a majority in France’s National Assembly?
On Sunday, French voters will cast ballots in the first round of parliamentary elections, and the big question is whether President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble! Party can win the majority it needs to advance an ambitious reform agenda. “The Macron camp has woken up to the fact that parliamentary election polls have tightened in recent days,” warns Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman. Lose their majority, and Macron’s party, and a government led by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, will face the tough task of forming ad-hoc parliamentary alliances to win votes on individual proposals.
In recent days, a resurgent left-wing coalition led by firebrand candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has climbed the polls, a reflection of voter anxiety not over Russia’s invasion or France’s place in the world but over pocketbook issues that have become more urgent. “The most pressing concern of voters is the cost of living, and some Macron supporters fear that high pump prices for petrol and diesel may be a ‘seat killer’ for Macron’s party,” says Rahman.
How popular is Italy’s far-right?
On Sunday, about 9 million Italians from some 1,000 cities and towns across the country will vote in local elections. That’s only about 15% of Italy’s population, but these votes will be an important testing ground for parties looking ahead to a historic and hotly contested national election next spring.
To this point, Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s national unity government has mainly kept its coalition together. That’s particularly true for Italy’s active support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia, now a source of rising tensions nationwide. Brothers of Italy, the ascendant party of the far-right that has remained outside Draghi’s unity government, is steadily gaining support and now leads national polls. A victory early next year for the EU-hostile Brothers would send shock waves across European politics.
Sunday’s vote won’t knock Draghi’s governing coalition off track, and it won’t force early elections. But results will be closely watched to see how Brothers of Italy fares relative to other popular anti-establishment parties, such as the far-right Lega Party and the center-left Five-Star Movement. A good day for the Brothers will set expectations for the crucial national vote next year.
Bottom line: Both the French and Italian elections will offer important first clues about the kind of pressures European incumbents are about to face.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrive for security talks at the Hotel President Wilson.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine diplomacy, India’s no-campaign election, Italian presidential conclave, Burkina Faso coup, Russia moves on crypto
Ukraine diplomatic blitz. The US and the UK have withdrawn some staff from their embassies in Kyiv, and NATO countries put more troops on standby amid an ongoing flurry of diplomacy to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. After playing defense for his boss over Joe Biden’s controversial remarks about Russia and Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of a severe response if any Russian forces cross the border. However, Blinken — who is trying to shore up a united front with Europe while keeping the Russian dialogue open — turned down Ukraine’s demand for preemptive sanctions against Russia. Also, the UK accused the Russians of planning to install a pro-Moscow leader in Kyiv. Meanwhile, on the ground both sides continue to beef up their military presence. While the first US weapons arrived in Ukraine, across the border Russia moved troops and equipment to Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor and a staunch Moscow ally. Blinken is expected to continue talks this week with the Russians, but there’s an X factor: China. Xi Jinping, whom Vladimir Putin now calls his “old friend”, probably doesn’t want the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics to be marred by a hot war in Europe, so perhaps he’ll try to talk his pal out of an invasion.
India debates elections or infections. Elections in the world’s largest democracy are quite the spectacle. They are massive logistical undertakings, marked by weeks of colorful campaigning and festivals. But COVID restrictions on large rallies mean the upcoming polls in five states — including Uttar Pradesh, the most populous one — will be conducted somewhat differently. As daily infections have spiked from less than 10,000 to over 300,000 in just one month, many Indians are feeling déjà vu from the spring of 2021, when India suffered a devastating second pandemic wave also preceded by state elections. PM Narendra Modi — who at the time claimed that India had beaten the virus — didn’t stop campaigning and allowed religious festivals to turn into superspreader events, only to later take fire for his mishandling of the public health crisis. But for the February polls, the election commission, and the courts have both spoken: yay to democracy, nay to campaigning. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether the restrictions result in lower turnout, which could hurt Modi’s ruling BJP party.
Italy's presidential "election." More than 1,000 Italian MPs and regional delegates begin voting on Monday in a complex process with serious papal conclave vibes to select a new president. Candidates need a two-thirds majority to win in the first three rounds, and after that 50 percent of the vote. There's no clear favorite to replace the outgoing Sergio Matarella as president, a largely ceremonial post that also has the power to pick prime ministers, call early elections, and sign/veto laws. Silvio Berlusconi, the 85-year-old former prime minister and “bunga bunga” king, initially threw his hat into the ring, but dropped out at the last moment. Current PM Mario Draghi is reportedly interested, although most Italian political parties would rather he continue leading Italy’s unity coalition government until legislative elections scheduled for next year. Draghi, a popular and respected former European Central Bank chief, has ambitious plans to cut Italian red tape in order to pump 192 billion euros ($218 billion) of EU pandemic relief money into the economy. Will "Super Mario" agree to stay in his current post to get the job done?
Mutineers, militants, and mines. Rebel soldiers in the West African nation of Burkina Faso on Monday reportedly arrested President Roch Kaboré in an apparent coup. A day earlier the mutineers had taken over some barracks, demanding that the government give them more resources to fight jihadists, sack the military and intelligence chiefs, and provide welfare for their wounded. The Burkinabé army has long struggled to combat Islamic State-linked militants, who are increasingly using the country to make inroads in the wider Sahel region. The government initially dismissed the power grab, which happened amid wider popular discontent with the president. Kaboré, who was re-elected in 2020 for a second term, has failed to defeat the insurgency, which is causing one of the world’s most underreported humanitarian disasters. What’s more, Burkina Faso has a lot of gold mines whose foreign investors are getting fed up with jihadist attacks.
Russia vs crypto. Russia’s central bank wants to ban cryptocurrency in all its forms and uses. The blanket ban would include transactions as well as mining crypto. Even though Russia is the world’s third-largest crypto miner by volume, the central bank says crypto is a speculative asset, a “pyramid scheme” that undermines regulators and threatens Russia’s climate policies because mining is very energy-intensive. The proposal comes as the EU is making its own bid to get rid of crypto mining, also citing environmental concerns. Last summer, crypto markets fell but rose again after a similar ban by China sparked a global sell-off. Now, and despite the increased mainstreaming of crypto assets, Bitcoin prices have slumped in recent days due to the Russian proposal and fears that US regulators may soon act on crypto. Still, Moscow isn’t exactly done framing its digital monetary policy: the Russians might permit using gold-backed “stablecoins” and some crypto mining activities under government control.