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Canada's Liberal Party leadership candidate and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney speaks to the media after participating in an English-language debate ahead of the March 9 vote to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Montreal, Quebec, on Feb. 25, 2025.
Do the Liberals stand a chance after all?
Over the past year, everyone had counted the Liberals down and out – their chances of holding on to power after the next federal election in Canada had been somewhere south of slim. But now the party is enjoying a twin boost from two recent shifts in the political terrain and has closed the polling gap between them and the Conservative Party.
In January, Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister. Then Donald Trump was inaugurated as US president for the second time and immediately started coming after Canada hard, threatening economy-destroying tariffs, calling Trudeau “governor,” and talking about annexing the country and making it a “cherished” 51st state.
With Trudeau (and his baggage) on the way out and Trump stirring up nationalist fervor, the Liberals have now surpassedthe Conservatives in one recent poll by Ipsos, coming back from 26 points behind in just six weeks to lead 38% to 36%. Another poll, by Léger, finds that with Mark Carney as Liberal leader, the party’s support would hit 40% compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives.
One or two polls will never tell the whole story, but over at 338 Canada, which aggregates federal polls, the Liberals are showing a sharp uptick and, on average, find themselves within 10 points of their Conservative competitors – and climbing day by day.
Disclaimer: Mark Carney’s wife, Diana Fox Carney, is an advisor to our parent company, Eurasia Group, but no one other than GZERO’s editorial team – and excluding publisher Evan Solomon, a family friend of the Carneys – is involved in the selection and editing of our coverage.Trump brings Canadian Liberals back from the dead
Mark Carney laid out his case for governing Canada on Saturday during a friendly interview with former Tony Blair spin doctor Alastair Campbell and short-lived Trump spokesman Anthony Scaramucci on "The Rest Is Politics" podcast.
Carney is likely to become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on March 9 and then take over from Justin Trudeau for two weeks before calling an election in which he must convince Canadians that he, not Pierre Poilievre, is the right person to handle President Donald Trump.
He is taking a harder line than the Conservative leader.
“What had been our closest friend and ally now is just our neighbor,” he said. “The Americans are just our neighbor. It’s geography as opposed to kinship.”
In a flag-festooned rally in Ottawa on the same day, Poilievre struck a different tone. He said Canada “will bear any burden and pay any price to protect our sovereignty and independence” — while also extending an olive branch.
“We’ve always loved you as neighbors and friends. There is no country with whom we would rather share a border — the longest undefended border in the world.”
Not a professional politician
Poilievre is not free to take as hard a line as Carney because about half of his party’s supporters approve of Trump, and his approach to politics is influenced by the MAGA movement.
Carney attacked Poilievre for that in the podcast.
“Do you really believe in these elements of Canada, or have you been mouthing MAGA talking points with a Canadian twist for the past three years, and don’t buy into them and wouldn’t protect them?”
Campbell, a savvy political messenger, gave him some friendly advice.
“I think if you are a full-time experienced politician, you left that hanging, Mark,” he said. “I’d have gone straight for the jugular. You were setting it up and then you pulled your punch.”
“You’re right,” Carney said with a grimace and a smile. “Fair enough.”
Campbell, who wants Carney to win, is right. Carney is not a “full-time experienced politician.” He doesn’t know how to land a punch. Poilievre, in contrast, has an unerring instinct for his opponent’s weaknesses, and never misses an opening.
No longer a slam dunk
The election ahead was supposed to be a slam dunk. Poilievre has been leading in the polls for three years, usually by double digits. The 9-year-old Trudeau government had wandered to the left of the mainstream, leaving Canadians fed up with the cost of living, a housing crisis, mismanaged immigration, and an activist, woke approach to social issues.
All the pieces were lined up for a massive Conservative election victory until Trump started threatening to annex Canada. In the fallout, the unpopular Trudeau was forced to resign, and Carney — who had been biding his time on the sidelines — stepped forward.
The former governor of central banks in Canada and the UK, Carney has unparalleled economic and crisis-management credentials. Canadians have taken notice. He is raising money and filling halls. The one issue where the Liberals have a brand advantage — managing the relationship with the Americans — is now likely to dominate political debate.
New challenge for Poilievre
Poilievre is still ahead in the polls, but the Liberals have surged. A poll last week from Leger, Canada’s best-rated pollster, found that the electorate would be evenly divided when Carney is leader.
The result was not a complete shock to Leger because a poll the week before found Quebec’s leaderless provincial Liberals surging at the expense of nationalist Quebec parties, says Leger Vice President Sébastien Dallaire.
“There clearly is a generalized Donald Trump effect, so the voters are galvanizing, trying to show national unity against what’s happening in the United States, against Donald Trump more specifically, and parties whose brands are more aligned with defending national unity are certainly benefiting from this.”
Poilievre had planned for the election of 2025 to be a referendum against Trudeau and the carbon tax, but Trudeau is headed for the exit and Carney has promised to kill the consumer carbon tax.
The parties are converging on policies as Liberals discard unpopular Trudeau-era positions and wrap themselves in the flag after a decade in which they held more ambiguous feelings. Poilievrecan complain about their death-bed conversion, but voters are focused on the future, so he has to thread the needle, backing his country against American threats while also not sanctioning the Liberals’ response.
“You want to be heard, but you don’t want to be seen to be a bit tone-deaf or out of touch with what’s happening,” says Dallaire. “So that’s the big, big challenge for Pierre Poilievre right now. And it goes a little bit against his style of politics as well, to find that softer tone a little bit.”
Trump, who seems to despise Trudeau, has thrown the Liberal Party a lifeline — and increased the possibility that the United States will face an unfriendly new government on its northern border this spring.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, is seen here officially announcing his bid for the federal Liberal Party leadership at Laurier Heights Community League in Edmonton, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025.
Is Canada set for a snap election?
When was the vote supposed to happen? Canadian law requires that an election be held by Oct. 25, 2025. Federal elections last between 37 and 51 days and must be held on a Monday, so a March 10 call would mean a vote on April 21. Opposition parties are already planning to bring nonconfidence motions when Parliament reconvenes on March 24 to oust the minority government and force an early vote.
Why would Liberals call an early election? The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, and talk of Canada as the 51st state have changed the political conversation. The ballot question has shifted from the government’s economic record to who can best take on Trump.
As a result, the Liberals’ poll numbers have risen dramatically. If Carney were leader, they would be tied withPierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, according to a new Leger survey. Since the opposition wants to force a vote anyway, there is arguably little to gain by waiting.
But it’s not a done deal. Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland says she would not hold an early election, citing the fact that, unlike Carney, she has a seat in Parliament and “would have the right to stand up in the House of Commons and to represent the government.” The timing could hinge on who wins the leadership – and where polls go between now and then.Carney looks like he will win a chance to lose
Unless some strange things happen, the next prime minister of Canada is likely to be an ambitious, high-achieving Albertan who made a mark on the world stage after excelling at Harvard and Oxford.
We don’t know yet whether that Albertan will be Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. But whoever becomes the Liberal Party leader on March 9 is unlikely to ever live in the official residence, because Justin Trudeau will probably still be packing boxes by the time his successor faces a different Albertan in an election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has an enormous lead in the national polls, which have not moved despite Trudeau announcing his long-pined-for resignation. The polls may move when the Liberals pick a new leader, but not enough to stop a Conservative landslide this spring.
It is impressive in a way that both Carney and Freeland — both extraordinarily accomplished people — have decided the race is worth the trouble because it looks like all the winner will get is a chance to lose. (House Leader Karina Gould is also running, but she is unlikely to find a way to be competitive in such a short race.)
A lot to give up
It is particularly striking that Carney — the former governor of the central banks in both Canada and England — is willing to give up a lucrative life in lush boardrooms for a difficult and uncertain political career. He has resigned as chair of both Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg LP and disentangled himself from a variety of other desirable gigs, giving up goodness knows how much money.
He must think he can win the leadership — and believe he has some chance of beating Poilievre — or he wouldn’t be doing all that.
Carney looks like he will win the first race. He kicked off his campaign by cracking jokes during a successful interview with Jon Stewart last week on “The Daily Show,” which drew approving reviews from Canadian Liberals who previously had found him staid, even for a banker.
But, without Stewart to loosen him up, he appeared wooden during his official launch in Edmonton, a sign of his inexperience as a politician.
Emotional and divisive
Freeland doesn’t have that problem. A former journalist who impressed Canadians with her toughness during trade negotiations with Donald Trump during his first term, she will be a formidable opponent. In her launch video, she presented herself as the candidate best suited to stand up to Trump, who is threatening to impose economy-killing tariffs on Canada.
But Freeland’s launch was interrupted by Gaza protesters and overshadowed by news that Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly — a crucial organizer in Quebec — would support Carney. Former Minister Navdeep Bains — a crucial organizer in the rest of the country — is also said to be on Team Carney, as are a growing number of prominent ministers. On Sunday, François-Philippe Champagne, the influential industry minister, is expected to endorse Carney, adding a note of finality.
Canada’s Middle East policy has not emerged as a point of debate — there have not yet been any debates — but it appears to be a dividing line in the race ahead, judging from how supporters are sorting themselves. Joly has often been criticized by Israel’s supporters, and they were quick to see her Carney endorsement as a bad sign.
Freeland has spoken up for Israel in the past, while Carney has no public record on the issue but appears to be attracting supporters who are more critical.
They will likely both be challenged to take a position as the race continues, which may damage whoever wins. An emotional and divisive dispute over Middle East policy is exactly what the Liberal Party doesn’t need as it gets ready to face Poilievre, who is strongly pro-Israel — but it may be what the party gets.
An outsider? Really?
Whether that so-far sublimated division emerges into the open or not, Carney is likely to win. He has the advantage because of “the short timeline, the high buy-in, and just the sheer number of early caucus support he’s gotten,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“In a long leadership, caucus matters very little. In a short leadership like this, where each caucus member is going to bring to the table a couple hundred supporters from their riding to be able to sign up for this, it matters a lot.”
And Freeland faces challenges. She will find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies since she was his deputy prime minister.
Carney was on the sidelines, giving him more of a credible claim to being, as he called himself on “The Daily Show,” an “outsider.” The Conservatives will ridicule that, pointing to his public support of carbon pricing, for example, but they might have to work up a sweat to make it stick. It is already stuck on Freeland.
“He’s got a lot to prove,” said a senior Liberal who prefers to remain anonymous. “Freeland has a lot to disprove, which means, I think that he has the easier go of it.”
And the manner in which Freeland left the Trudeau government — resigning on the day she was to deliver a fall economic update and throwing the government into chaos — may not sit well even with those Liberals who were relieved to see Trudeau pushed out.
There’s an old adage in politics: She who wields the knife never wears the crown.
It would be hard for her to win, but Carney — who is entering a demanding new profession at age 59 — might find a way to lose.
Whoever comes out on top will almost immediately face the fearsome Poilievre, giving them a good chance of beating the record set by Charles Tupper, who had the shortest tenure as Canadian prime minister when he served for just 68 days in 1896.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland speaks during a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 6, 2024.
The Liberal leadership race is set to be a two-candidate throwdown
On March 9, the Liberal Party will have a new leader, and soon after, Canada will have a new prime minister.
The race is set to be a contest between former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, who was Justin Trudeau’s finance minister and deputy prime minister until she resigned in December over differences with the PM.
A handful of others have declared a run including longtime Cabinet minister Karina Gould, former member of Parliament Frank Baylis, and current MPs Jaime Battiste and Chandra Arya. Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is reportedly considering a bid. But they’re long shots at best.
Candidates have until Jan. 23 to declare.
With the Liberals down more than 20 points in the polls and facing an election as early as March, whoever wins has a tough task ahead. Rather than battle for a poisoned chalice, a number of high-profile Cabinet ministers are sitting out, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc, and Transport Minister Anita Anand. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark also demurred, citing her poor French speaking skills.
The Liberals set a hefty entrance fee for candidates at 350,000 Canadian dollars — a steep amount for a short race in which strict election finance rules forbid individual donors from contributing more than CA$1,750, and companies are prohibited from donating at all. That means that only heavy hitters with wide recognition have a shot at raising enough cash in time, leaving the high-profile Carney and Freeland ahead of the pack before the race even begins.
Trudeau’s successor: All eyes on Freeland, Clark, Carney
Who is lining up to replace outgoing Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and prime minister?
Popular MP Dominic LeBlancannounced Wednesday that he will not run. He took over the Finance portfolio after Chyrstia Freeland abandoned the sinking Trudeau ship last month, and he was already engaged with border issues, having gone with Trudeau to Mar-a-Lago at the end of November. The bilingual LeBlanc – French fluency is a must for Canadian PMs these days – was considered a potential replacement for Trudeau, but he couldn’t abandon his crucial portfolios to take part in the race.
Most speculation is now centered on Freeland, former British Columbia premier Christy Clark and former central banker Mark Carney, who are all considering candidacies.
They all have strengths and vulnerabilities. Freeland has the highest profile and is seen as tough and capable, but she would find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies. Also, some Liberals might resent her for hastening Trudeau’s political demise with her resignation.
Clark is a proven political performer with deep roots in the right wing of the party and could easily distance herself from Trudeau, but the quality of her French is an open question.
Carney, meanwhile, has impeccable economic credentials, a record of achievement at a global level, and speaks French, but he has not proven himself in the rough-and-tumble world of politics.
Several ministers are also considering runs, including François-Philippe Champagne, Karina Gould, Mélanie Joly, Steve MacKinnon, and Jonathan Wilkinson.
They all may wait until the rules are announced to announce their candidacies. The party is under pressure to tighten leadership voting rules, which currently allow foreign students and temporary workers to vote.
It’s too soon to handicap a race, but Carney is the one to watch. The Conservatives keep attacking him, which suggests he makes them nervous. But Carney has never sought public office, and it is impossible to predict if his skin is thick enough or stump presence appealing enough for the job.
France's snap election: Understanding why Macron took the risk
With Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings at a historic low, and far-right parties gaining popularity, could France’s upcoming election be its own “Brexit” moment? Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss snap elections in the UK and France, the complexities of Brexit, and its ongoing impact on domestic politics in Europe.
“There are a wide range of aspects of the UK-European relationship which don't work,” Carney says, “There's massive red tape, for example, in agricultural products, massive red tape and delays at the border, the inner workings of a very interconnected financial system.”
Calling a snap election in France is a big risk, Carney explains, but after his party underperformed in the EU parliamentary elections, Macron wants a referendum from the French people. He’s betting that voters used the EU election to send a message but will vote more moderately in national elections closer to home. Meanwhile, Labour is expected to win big in the UK elections, but the aftermath of Brexit still looms large. But the geopolitics of 2024 are very different than in 2016 during the Brexit referendum.
“There's a range of things that could be made better if the UK government and the European government wanted to work together,” Carney stresses, “And it's all operating in a GZERO World.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
What the France and UK elections mean for the West
Major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges? How will Western allies approach issues like climate change, the AI revolution, and cyber defense in an increasingly fractured world? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
“We're operating in a world where security is paramount. You need resilience,” Carney tells Bremmer, “You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.”
Carney and Bremmer also delve into the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and how our neighbor to the north can be a reliable, strategic partner in many critical areas, including national security and climate transition. He warns Canadians and Americans shouldn’t “hit the snooze button” when it comes to strengthening US-Canada ties and stresses that Canada can be a critical partner in providing lean energy, crucial minerals, and AI expertise. As for Carney’s rumored political future as a potential Liberal Party leader? Well, you’ll just have to watch the interview to find out.