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This Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
The Graphic Truth: Tracking the Liberal comeback
Despite the two parties narrowing by a point in the polls since they released their platforms this past week, looking at the arc of the race overall, it appears that the Conservatives peaked too early and the Liberals have made an impressive resurgence.
When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned — accusing the Liberal leadership of being unprepared to face the growing threat of Donald Trump — it sent shockwaves through the party and delivered a major blow to Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The Liberals were already tanking in the polls, and many saw no way back.
But since Trudeau stepped down, the party has been on a sharp upswing. Trump’s renewed threats against Canada have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism — a momentum the Liberals have tapped into. It’s too soon to call the results, but as the election comes to a close, this Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
Special interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
With just over a week until the Canadian election, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with two senior advisors at Eurasia Group to get their take: Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who is a former advisor to Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and John Baird, former Cabinet minister under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Here’s what they had to say:
Why is Canada in an election campaign? “The prime minister needed a mandate from the people, not just his party,” said Butts, referring to newly minted PM Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau in March.
Baird was more blunt: “Carney wanted to separate himself from the NDP–Trudeau era.” Which he seems to be doing: Under his watch the Liberals have soared nearly 20 points in the polls and are currentlypredicted to form a government.
Who are the main players? Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, presents “a safe, fiscally responsible concept” in Butts’ view. His main rival, populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, brings “a fresh approach” according to Baird, who served with Poilievre in Parliament. He sees Poilievre as “best able to speak to US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
What’s really on the ballot? Themain issue is who can most effectively deal with Trump, whose tariffs and musings about making Canada the “51st state” have enraged Canadians. So far, voters givetop marks to Carney on that question. But whichever party wins, Butts and Baird agree that the next PM faces a hostile White House. “We’re starting from scratch,” warned Butts, citing the breakdown in what used to be one of the world’s closest bilateral relationships.
Minority or majority? Both men think that a minority government would be a bad outcome. “You don’t want to be checking in with a party leader with 8% in the polls before talking to the president of the United States,” said Butts, referring to Canada’s smaller parties, the NDP and Bloc Québécois. “It’s the tail wagging the dog,” added Baird.
Advice to the next PM for dealing with Trump? “Don’t get ‘Zelenskied’ — and be prepared,” they agreed. And to the victor go the spoils, even if that victor will take over at one of the most fraught moments in Canada’s history.
“The worst day in government,” Baird quipped, “is still better than the best day in opposition.”
Watch the full interview above.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney during Carney's Liberal Party election campaign tour, in Brampton, Ontario, Canada April 10, 2025.
Canada celebrates tariff reprieve
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carneycalled Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs “a welcome reprieve for the global economy.”
It was indeed a welcome reprieve for Canada, which appeared to be at risk of being hit with an additional10% US tariff. As things stand, Canada is subject only to the 25% tariff on goods that are not compliant with existing free trade agreements, and a 10% rate on noncompliant energy and potash exports.
Still, Carney continued to distance Canada from the US, writing in an implicit swipe at Trump that the country must “continue to deepen its relationships with trading partners that share our values, including the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.”
And, on Wednesday night, a 25% Canadian tariff on certain US vehicles and auto parts went into effect, mirroring an earlier Trump levy on the Canadian car industry.
Looking ahead: Carney says Canada’s prime minister, whoever it is after the federal election on April 28, will continue to negotiate with Trump on trade and security.
Canadian PM Mark Carney
Canadian PM calls snap election
The countdown is on! On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carneydissolved parliament and called a snap federal election that promises to be one of the most consequential — and hotly contested — in recent Canadian history.
Until January, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had maintained a two-year lead in opinion polls, which ran as high as 25% in December. But the resignation in January of unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, coupled with the return to power of US President Donald Trump, upended the race. It allowed new leader Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, to capitalize on his financial and governance experience in the face of anxiety about Trump’s tariffs and talk of annexation. The Liberals are now neck and neck with the Conservatives and even ahead in some polls.
With the election set for April 28, the Conservatives are scrambling to retool their message, notably on the carbon tax, which Carney has now set to zero for consumers but maintained for industrial emitters. They also question Carney’s ethics, claiming he has conflicts of interest stemming from his work as chair of Brookfield Asset Management. The New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh is feeling the squeeze as it attempts to hold onto progressive voters, while the Bloc Québécois of Yves-François Blanchet will fight to represent Quebec’s interests in the new parliament.
For news about outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon and his decision to run for the Liberals, click here.
So far, Carney’s ‘toughness’ doesn’t seem to bother Trump
Last Thursday, Justin Trudeau’s last full day as prime minister, Donald Trump was emphatic in his desire to force Canada to join the United States during a press event in the Oval Office.
“Canada only works as a state,” he said, referring to the border as “an artificial line” and suggesting that Canschluss — a play on the term Anschluss, denoting Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria in 1938 — is just a matter of time.
“There will be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long. But they need us. We really don’t need them. And we have to do this. I’m sorry.”
On Friday, former central banker Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s prime minister. In his first news conference, he called Trump’s comments “crazy. That’s all you can say.”
For a few days, Trump didn't repeat his threats, which opened up the possibility that he merely enjoyed dunking onTrudeau, whom he seems to despise, and would now move on. But it was likely that the US president was just busy — carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, deporting migrants to El Salvador, and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.
On Tuesday night, in an interview with Fox News, Trump angrily denounced Canada again, said he doesn’t care if his comments cost the Conservatives the election, and said Canada is “meant to be our 51st state.”
Trump is so toxic in Canada that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievreseized on the comment as evidence that he, not Carney, is the champion the country needs.
Trump’s continued trash talk may show that his fixation is too deep to be deterred by the disinclination of Canadians to be annexed, which is setting him up for a showdown with the new prime minister.
People who know Carney think he may be better equipped to respond than Trudeau was.
Anthony Scaramucci, who became friends with Carney at Goldman Sachs many years ago, and who briefly worked for Trump in 2017, said on MSNBC that the president likely doesn’t want a fight with Carney, who he described as a “very, very tough guy.”
“I don’t think the administration really wants to fight with him,” said the Mooch. “He has energy on his side. He has electricity on his side.”
Trudeau looked weak
Trump and Carney have not yet had the traditional congratulatory call but, on the other hand, he is not yet calling Carney governor — which would be ironic, since he previously served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
It may be that Trump had a special desire to bully Trudeau, who was an unpopular lame duck when Trump was elected.
“Trump, as everybody knows, has an unerring instinct for the weakness of a counterparty, and he seeks to exploit that and control them for it,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
The White House will have noticed that Canadians now have their backs up, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, and are unified around the idea of “sticking it” to the Americans.
“It really has changed the way in which they will be able to negotiate with the United States in an upcoming [trade] renegotiation. It doesn’t matter who the leader of the Canadian government is. That person is going to have to represent the national mood, and the national mood is not conducive to cutting a deal with the United States.”
And Trump appreciates muscle. After blustery Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the United States, Trump threatened him into backing down, and then praised him as “a very strong man.”
Thompson notes that Trump has been respectful to Ford, who just won a majority, and Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who enjoys overwhelming support among Mexicans.
“I think that whoever ends up on the other side of the Canadian election, if they get a majority, that would be the most powerful thing in Carney or Poilievre’s pocket, in terms of relations with the Trump administration.”
An election on tackling Trump
For Carney, everything depends on managing Trump, since he has the power to badly damage Canada’s economy with tariffs.
Carney is trying to show strength. After being sworn in, he flew to Europe to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to “strengthen ties with reliable allies,” which seemingly no longer includes the United States.
After flying back to the Canadian Arctic, Carney announced that Canada would buy a CA$6 billion radar system from Australia, getting it before the Americans. He also has asked for a review of the planned CA$19 billion purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States, “given the geopolitical environment,” although the Americans might be able to use technology-sharing agreements to block Canada from purchasing alternatives.
Last week, Portugal announced it would buy European jets rather than F-35s because of America’s new hostility toward traditional allies, so the Canadian announcement would seem like bad news for politically powerful American supplier Lockheed Martin. This would normally be the kind of thing to get a president’s attention.
Carney, who has met Trump at international conferences and been involved in business deals with Jared Kushner and Elon Musk, will highlight his economic and crisis-management experience in the upcoming Canadian election, which could start as soon as Sunday.
Polls show, in a dramatic reversal, that Canadians now favor Carney over his Conservative rival, who is promising to stand up to Trump but whom Carney has linked to the MAGA movement.
Carney is campaigning on taking a hard line. In London, he said he didn’t intend to negotiate with Trump until he stopped threatening to make Canada the 51st state.
“We’ve called out those comments,” he said. “They’re disrespectful, they’re not helpful, and they need to stop. They will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership with the United States.”
But Trump shows no sign of stopping, and if he doesn’t, it’s unclear what Carney — or Poilievre — can do. Both leaders talk about diversifying trade, but it would take years to build the transport infrastructure to make a major shift workable. In the short term, a showdown with a hostile neighbor looks inevitable.
Outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon
Evan Solomon to run for Liberals
GZERO’s Evan Solomon announced on Thursday that he will be returning to Canada and running for Mark Carney’s Liberals. A former Canadian broadcaster, he has been GZERO’s publisher since 2022.
“Given the urgent challenges and threats facing Canadians right now, I’ve decided it’s the right time to come home and do whatever I can to help serve my community and country,” Solomon said in a LinkedIn post. “I will be joining the team led by Prime Minister Mark Carney and will be running as a candidate in the next Federal election. More details on this will be coming very soon!”
Maziar Minovi, CEO of Eurasia Group, praised Solomon for taking the plunge into politics. “You brought to your leadership at GZERO Media sharp insight, strategic vision, and an unwavering commitment to fact-based journalism. Now, you’re bringing that same passion to public service — exactly the kind of step we love to see from our teams.”
Minovi said the Eurasia Group is happy when members of his team choose public service. “As I often say, if you wouldn’t be seriously tempted to take the right job in government to impact the world, then you don’t belong at Eurasia Group.”
Eurasia Group special advisor Justin Kosslyn will be stepping in as GZERO’s interim publisher.
Canadian Liberal Party leader Mark Carney faces Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in this composite, with Donald Trump hovering in the background.
Canada’s new PM is a technocratic banker who’s never been elected — and that might help him
Mark Carney was sworn in Friday as the prime minister of Canada.
AsCarney takes the helm from Justin Trudeau, the country is witnessing a stunning rebound for the Liberals. In January, the governing Liberal Party trailed the opposition Conservatives by 25 points. Now, the gap has closed to roughly 6 points, and some recent polls even have the Liberals ahead. And Carney’s previous, purported liabilities — being a staid, low-key, globalist technocrat who’s never been elected — may now be seen as strengths as he prepares to call a snap election in the coming days.
What changed between January and today? In short: Donald Trump andTrudeau. Once Trudeau signaled his intention to go, the polls started moving in the Liberals’ favor. Then, Trump threatened Canada with annexation, calling for it to become the “cherished” 51st state and ushered in a trade war with heavy tariffs. Canadians rallied around the flag — and the governing party. Now it seems those same Canadians may be looking for an unflashy, steady hand on the tiller — a leader who can calmly explain matters and strike a stable, reliable posture.
Carney flips the script
Twice serving as a central banker — head of the Bank of Canada and, later, the Bank of England — Carney held earlier positions as deputy minister and an investment banker. His time at the central banks coincided with two major crises: the global financial crisis and Brexit. He’s been criticized by many on the right and left — including me — as a boring technocrat who couldn’t rise to meet today’s populist anger. The Conservatives and their leader, Pierre Poilievre, attacked him as a globalist — a banker with multiple passports, a Davos man through and through. A European, even.
Now, as Canada stares down threats from Trump and begins to look at trade and defense diversification, Carney’s CV and aesthetic may be valuable assets for enough voters to save the Liberals — or, at least, to bring them back from the brink of a previously expected wipeout.
These circumstances give Carney the chance to present himself as the change candidate with enough insiders onside to get the job done. He’s not Trudeau, and he’s never been elected — yet he has the steady hand of continuity as a Liberal surrounded by members of Parliament who’ve been around the block. He’s calm, experienced in negotiation and economic management, and he can explain the crisis at hand and what needs to be done. Even conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford says Carney “understands finances like no other person.”
Still, Carney faces a big leadership test, and his party continues to trail in most polls. Graeme Thompson, a senior macro-geopolitics analyst at Eurasia Group, says Carney’s skills and temperament make him a kind of anti-Trump. But there may be a limit to how far that will take him in an election campaign, even if they serve him while governing.
What happens, asks Thompson, “when the technocratic economist skills and experience, and the kind of bland, boring, predictable, safe persona runs into the fact of a 40-day electoral sprint in front of the media, live crowds, and on debate stages with Pierre Poilievre?”
Carney versus Trump, Poilievre versus …Trudeau?
When Carney hits the debate stage, he’ll be running against Trump, and he’ll make the case that while he can’t manage the mercurial president — he says Trump can’t be controlled — he can effectively navigate the crises emanating from the White House.
In his victory speech in Ottawa last Sunday, Carney said as much, sending a message to Canadian voters — and Trump — and setting the tone and focus of his campaign for the federal election.
“Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape, or form,” said Carney. “We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.”
On Wednesday, Carney said he’ll only meet Trump if the president respects Canadian sovereignty, though he didn’t specify exactly what that would entail.
Poilievre and the Conservatives, meanwhile, have been left snakebitten by the quick turn of events. They say they’re not panicking at Carney’s rise, but they’re dropping in the polls, and they’ve lost the electoral focus — the carbon tax — they’ve worked on for over a year. Like the Conservatives, Carney says he will also scrap consumer carbon pricing. Poilievre has built his campaign around his character: combative, angry, unapologetically right-wing, and, above all, anti-Trudeau. He’s built his entire campaign around running against Trudeau.
Now, he’ll try to make the case that the new PM is Trudeau 2.0. Poilievre will question his opponent’s trustability, pointing to the fact that Carney has not disclosed his financial assets — even though he has now put those assets in a blind trust — and that Carney’s using Trump as a distraction.
Described as Trump-like or Trump-inspired in the past, Poilievre recently has been tougher on the president, attacking his tariffs, supporting counter-tariffs, and emphasizing that Canada will never become the 51st state. But it’s a fine line; he knows much of his base has been pro-Trump — and some still are. Poilievre can’t afford to alienate them, and the Liberals will be all too happy to try to tie the Canadian right to its US counterpart.
One way or another, the Canadian election will be about Trump, which could help the Liberals.
“If the election is about people wanting the opposite of whatever it is that Donald Trump is offering, then that works to the benefit of the Liberals,” Thompson says.
“In a way, you’re going to get a fight not between two relatively different policy visions, but two notions of what the ballot question is. A lot is going to be determined by the actual campaign, but the Liberals are definitely back in the game.”
US-Canada trade war helps Mark Carney's election prospects
With recent tensions between Zelensky and Washington, how likely are the Saudi-hosted peace talks to yield real progress?
Well, we'll find out real soon. Zelensky has certainly made his efforts to make nice on the critical minerals deal, on apologizing to the Trump White House for a meeting that frankly he has very little to apologize for, and that certainly has helped with getting this engagement going. Also, he's not attending personally, rather, his key envoys and advisors meeting with Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz. I suspect that the meetings will end up being just fine, but they are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire because what the Ukrainians are prepared to accept, the Russians are not close to accepting. So either Trump is going to have to be willing to take some time, bring it to the Russians and see that the Russians are not playing full ball, or he's going to have to throw the Ukrainians under the bus more and make greater demands that they're not prepared to accept. I don't think either of those things are likely to happen today, but that's I think, the direction of travel.
Are we on the cusp of a nuclear proliferation era as Poland and Germany talk of acquiring nuclear weapons?
Germany's talking more about sharing in the nuclear umbrella with France. Poland's talking about getting its own. These things are all harder. They will take longer than these countries have. It's not like France's nuclear umbrella is deep or easily extendable. In order to have anyone believe credibly that a French deterrent would apply to other countries, a lot of things have to happen in terms of coordination and infrastructure and building up those capabilities that will take frankly years. So, I think it's important that these conversations are happening. I think that many countries around the world are moving towards establishing their own nuclear capabilities in, around, the Middle East. I can certainly see over time as Iran gets closer, the Saudis thinking about it, the Turks thinking about it, in Asia, South Korea and Japan. In Europe, a number of countries needing to have collective security because they don't feel like the Americans can provide for them. But I don't think those things are happening overnight. The global order is changing. It is really past the tipping point, but these things are slow moving processes.
Does Justin Trudeau's replacement, Mark Carney, have a shot of winning Canada's general election?
Certainly does, and three months ago would've had no shot at all. There's been an extraordinary bounce back for the Liberal Party, in part because they're now represented by someone that is not an incumbent. Think about what would've happened in the US if it hadn't been Biden or Kamala Harris, but had been an outsider after general primary, better shot of winning. That's exactly what the Canadians have now done. Trudeau forced down, Chrystia Freeland, his deputy prime minister, getting 8% in the Liberal caucus vote, and Carney getting almost 86%. So he's a centrist. He's in much better position to give a serious run against Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives. The big question is how is Trump going to respond? Because on the one hand, it's very easy for Trump to now say, "Trudeau's gone because of me, and I'm now willing to work with somebody who is more reasonable," and the markets would certainly appreciate that. On the other hand, short of him doing that, and I think it's unlikely that he's going to reach out and extend a hand to the Canadians, then Trump beating on Canada more gives Carney a better shot of winning because he's the guy that can manage an economic crisis and also because the Canadians are so united in their anger with the United States, kind of like Mexico is right now, kind of like a number of European countries are right now. So Trump is definitely a uniter, just not inside the US, more inside other countries.