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Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, with his wife Olena Zelenskiy on the left, surrounded of Heads of State in the NATO Summit hosted in Vilnius, Lithuania.
What to expect at the NATO summit
The 2024 NATO Summit is set to begin on Tuesday in Washington, DC, and it comes at a historic but precarious moment for both the alliance and host nation. NATO is dealing with an ongoing war in Ukraine, preparing to welcome Mark Rutte as its new chief, and bracing for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, which pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO’s arms, the alliance is larger than ever, and tensions between the West and Russia have reached levels not seen since the Cold War. Sustaining support for Ukraine as the country creeps toward the three-year mark of Russia’s 2022 invasion will be a major issue on the agenda at the summit, as alliance members increasingly struggle to make the case for throwing more weapons and money at a conflict that has no end in sight. And while Kyiv’s ambitions of joining NATO will be discussed at the summit, the continued fighting between Ukraine and Russia means it’s not happening anytime soon.
Age will also be a particularly big theme at the summit: NATO turned 75 this year and the alliance will look to tout its longevity — it outlived the Soviet Union and has newfound relevance as the West looks to confront the ambitions of not just Moscow but also Beijing. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden will be looking to convince world leaders that — despite being older than the alliance at 81 — he’s still capable of leading the most powerful country on the planet.
Biden’s recent, disastrous performance in a presidential debate against former President Donald Trump has thrown his campaign into chaos, and calls are growing for Uncle Joe to step aside. The president, who remains defiant in the face of the push for him to call it quits, will be looking to put on a good show at the summit and prove the doubters wrong.
Along with Biden’s cognitive state, Trump will also be an elephant in the room at the summit. During his presidency, Trump’s sharp criticism of NATO allies and his isolationist “America First” foreign policy consistently made the alliance nervous. Trump also opposes further aid to Ukraine. There’s no doubt that the summit will foster numerous conversations on whether the alliance can “Trump-proof” itself in case he’s reelected.
The US has long been the most powerful, influential member of NATO, but its chaotic politics in recent years have led alliance members to question Washington’s reliability. Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron have already openly stated that Europe can no longer count on the US for its security.
We’ll be watching to see whether Biden can convince NATO allies that the US remains a steadfast partner.
Visit by Dutch PM Mark Rutte with PM Mateusz Morawiecki in Warsaw, Poland on 21 March, 2022.
Who is incoming NATO chief Mark Rutte?
DutchPrime Minister Mark Rutte will take over as NATO’s Secretary-General in October, relieving Jens Stoltenberg after a decade in office, the alliance announced Wednesday. Rutte, who is famously affable and well-liked by peers, is a safe choice, but his political and diplomatic skills will be put to the test as NATO faces its greatest challenges in a generation.
What does a Secretary-General do? Rutte will herd some extremely well-armed cats. As the alliance’s main spokesperson and chief political officer, he will chair meetings of the North Atlantic Council and the Defense Planning Committee, among many other policy-making bodies, and is charged with building consensus among allies whose interests may vary widely. The role has always been filled by a senior European politician, just as the Supreme Allied Commander — NATO’s top general — has always been a senior US military officer (though there’s no rule).
The office carries very few official powers, meaning successful Sec-Gens must rely on their persuasive skills, and on that front, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more skilled candidate than Rutte. He has built a reputation as a masterful politician in nearly 14 years in office in the Hague, fending off repeated threats to his minority coalition from the far right and surviving scandals that sank the careers of his cabinet officials.
Can he handle Trump? If the former US president takes office again next year, many in NATO fear he may destabilize and weaken the alliance, given his antipathy to multilateralism and friendliness with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But Rutte is one of the few leaders who can say he’s tangled with Trump and come out unscathed, after directly interrupting and contradicting the then president during an Oval Office press conference in 2018. Reporters later overheard him tell Trump his desk was “tiny,” to which the president responded, “I like this guy!”
We’re watching whether Rutte’s charming directness serves him equally well in Brussels.
After Merkel, who leads Europe?
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
Who's going to be the leading voice politician in Europe after Angela Merkel leaves?
Well, that remains to be seen. First, we need to wait for the outcome of the German election, and then it's going to take quite some time to form a government in Germany to see who's going to be chancellor. And then of course we have elections coming up in France in the spring. Macron is likely to win, but you never know. So by next summer, we'll know more about that. And then there are other personalities there. There's Mario Draghi, prime minister of Italy, who has a strong personality. Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, as long as he's there. So it's going to take quite some time for this to be sorted out.
What did Boris Johnson achieve during his visit to the United States?
Well, I think his number one priority at the moment must be to mobilize broader international support for climate efforts. He is the host of the COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow in November. That must be a success and I hope that he makes further progress in that direction during his days in the United States.